Improving the Win, 2014 Braves Edition

What would happen if the practice of giving a W or L to individual players extended beyond just pitchers, and also involved a better process than just lucky timing?  Using WPA, I’ve assigned a W or L for every game in the 2014 season so far.  Let’s see what it looks like:

DateOpponentScorePlayer of record
3/31@Brewers0-2Dan Uggla - L (0-1)
4/1@Brewers5-2Alex Wood - W (1-0)
4/2@Brewers1-0Aaron Harang - W (1-0)
4/4@Nationals2-1David Hale - W (1-0)
4/5@Nationals6-2Andrelton Simmons - W (1-0)
4/6@Nationals1-2Jason Heyward - L (0-1)
4/8vs. Mets0-4Jason Heyward - L (0-2)
4/9vs. Mets4-3Ervin Santana - W (1-0)
4/10vs. Mets4-6David Hale - L (1-1)
4/11vs. Nationals7-6Justin Upton - W (1-0)
4/12vs. Nationals6-3Justin Upton - W (2-0)
4/13vs. Nationals10-2Aaron Harang - W (2-0)
4/14@Phillies9-6Dan Uggla - W (1-1)
4/16@Phillies1-0Julio Teheran - W (1-0)
4/17@Phillies0-1Jason Heyward - L (0-3)
4/18@Mets6-0Aaron Harang - W (3-0)
4/19@Mets7-5Freddie Freeman - W (1-0)
4/20@Mets3-4Evan Gattis - L (0-1)
4/21vs. Marlins4-2Evan Gattis - W (1-1)
4/22vs. Marlins0-1B.J. Upton - L (0-1)
4/23vs. Marlins3-1Evan Gattis - W (2-1)
4/25vs. Reds5-4Justin Upton - W (3-0)
4/26vs. Reds4-1David Hale - W (2-1)
4/27vs. Reds1-0Julio Teheran - W (2-0)
4/29@Marlins0-9Alex Wood - L (1-1)
4/30@Marlins3-9Aaron Harang - L (3-1)
5/1@Marlins4-5David Carpenter - L (0-1)
5/2vs. Giants1-2Chris Johnson - L (0-1)
5/3vs. Giants1-3Justin Upton - L (3-1)
5/4vs. Giants1-4Justin Upton - L (3-2)
5/5vs. Cardinals3-4Justin Upton - L (3-3)
5/6vs. Cardinals2-1Chris Johnson - W (1-1)
5/7vs. Cardinals1-7Mike Minor - L (0-1)
5/9vs. Cubs3-2Julio Teheran - W (3-0)
5/10vs. Cubs2-0Ervin Santana - W (2-0)
5/11vs. Cubs5-2Evan Gattis - W (3-1)
5/12@Giants2-4Gavin Floyd - L (0-1)
5/13@Giants5-0Mike Minor - W (1-1)
5/14@Giants4-10Julio Teheran - L (3-1)
5/16@Cardinals2-5Ervin Santana - L (2-1)
5/17@Cardinals1-4Justin Upton - L (3-4)
5/18@Cardinals6-5Freddie Freeman - W (2-0)
5/19vs. Brewers9-3Jason Heyward - W (1-3)
5/20vs. Brewers5-0Julio Teheran - W (4-1)
5/21vs. Brewers1-6Ervin Santana - L (2-2)
5/22vs. Brewers5-4Ryan Doumit - W (1-0)
5/23vs. Rockies3-2Gerald Laird - W (1-0)
5/24vs. Rockies1-3Chris Johnson - L (1-2)
5/25vs. Rockies7-0Evan Gattis - W (4-1)
5/26vs. Red Sox6-8Ian Thomas - L (0-1)
5/27vs. Red Sox3-6Luis Avilan - L (0-1)
5/28@Red Sox0-4Freddie Freeman - L (2-1)
5/29@Red Sox3-4David Carpenter - L (0-2)
5/30@Marlins3-2Jason Heyward - W (2-3)
5/31@Marlins9-5Freddie Freeman - W (3-1)
6/1@Marlins4-2Evan Gattis - W (5-1)
6/3vs. Mariners5-7Gavin Floyd - L (0-2)
6/4vs. Mariners0-2Chris Johnson - L (1-3)
6/6@Diamondbacks5-2Jason Heyward - W (3-3)
6/7@Diamondbacks3-4Anthony Varvaro - L (0-1)
6/8@Diamondbacks5-6David Hale - L (2-2)
6/9@Rockies3-1Gavin Floyd - W (1-2)

A breakdown by starters:

C Evan Gattis (5-1)
1B Freddie Freeman (3-1)
2B Dan Uggla (1-1)
3B Chris Johnson (1-3)
SS Andrelton Simmons (1-0)
LF Justin Upton (3-4)
CF BJ Upton (0-1)
RF Jason Heyward (3-3)

Bench Gerald Laird (1-0)
Bench Ryan Doumit (1-0)

SP Julio Teheran (4-1)
SP Aaron Harang (3-1)
SP Mike Minor (1-1)
SP Gavin Floyd (1-2)
SP Ervin Santana (2-2)

SP/RP David Hale (2-2)
SP/RP Alex Wood (1-1)
RP David Carpenter (0-1)
RP Luis Avilan (0-1)
RP Anthony Varvaro (0-1)
RP Ian Thomas (0-1)

(everyone else is 0-0)

Now, I won’t pretend that this is a good way of analyzing players or pitchers.  WPA doesn’t incorporate defense, for example.  It also   My method has the same basic flaw that Wins have – trying to give a single player credit or blame for a team’s result.  It isn’t a good way to look at things.  But I would at least contend that my revised W/L record is a better way of doing that flawed exercise.

If we’re not going to acquiesce to Brian Kenny’s wishes and kill the win, the least we could do is make it better.

About Brent Blackwell 139 Articles
Brent Blackwell also writes for College Football By The Numbers at www.cfbtn.com.

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