Welcome to the Braves Farm Report, where we will take a look at the Braves farm system and look at trends and players that seem interesting, and give first hand accounts of what we’re seeing down on the farm.
This week we take a closer look at Rome’s teenage right-hander Victor Vodnik, reviews the action from the first 9 days of the minor league season, and answer questions from the mailbag.
SHAMELESS PLUG: As a companion to the Farm Report, check out our brand new podcast, the OFR Farm Report, co-hosted by Andy Harris and Matt Chrietzberg, and out every Monday on Android and TuneIn apps (and coming soon, iTunes and Stitcher).
Prospect Spotlight: Victor Vodnik
The 14th-round pick by the Braves in 2018, Vodnik turned out to be the only high school age player signed by the Braves in that draft. Baseball America reported that he showed a mid-90s fastball and a self-taught slider that flashed above average.
Position: RHP
Age: 19.5
Height: 6′-0″
Weight: 200 lbs
Performance: 2 G, 0 GS | 0.00 ERA | 2.41 FIP | 4.0 IP | 2.25 BB/9 | 9.00 K/9
Grades (Current/Future)
Fastball: 40/60
Slider: 40/60
Change-Up: 30/50
Command: 30/50
Rialto, California isn’t exactly a hot-bed of baseball scouting. A blue-collar Inland Empire city a little over 50 miles west of Los Angeles, Rialto’s per capita average income is just a little over $13,000 and nearly 14% of families live below the poverty line. The last major leaguer drafted out of Rialito High School was Ricky Nolasco, 18 years ago.
With so much of prep-age baseball wrapped around the relatively expensive propositions of travel ball, showcases, and personal coaches, it can be tough for kids in areas like Rialto to get noticed. Fortunately for Vodnik and the Braves, he was able to attend Perfect Game’s WWBA World Championship in 2018 and turned heads with a mid-90s fastball and a slider with surprising depth.
After the draft, Vodnik appeared in 4 games with the GCL Braves and was invited to instructionals that fall. A starter in high school, Vodnik likely projects as a reliever long-term. He has appeared in relief twice for Rome early on this season, but he could be following the the trail taken by fellow raw high-schooler Freddy Tarnok last season, in which Tarnok was used as a reliever in the first half of the season and moved to the rotation in the second.
The three-pitch sequence below against Columbia Fireflies switch-hitter Ronny Mauricio, the #3 prospect in the Mets farm system per Baseball America, gives a good example of how Vodnik is currently attacking hitters. After walking the lead-off hitter, Vodnik got ahead of Mauricio on a borderline called strike.
PITCH 1: Mauricio is very late on a low-90s fastball. Vodnik does a nice job of hiding the ball for a long time, and while the delivery is a little herky-jerky, the arm action is quick and without a lot of effort. Mauricio barely gets a piece of hit to foul it into the stands. Vodnik is now ahead 0-2.
PITCH 2: Vodnik lets fly on a mid-90s fastball that sails out of the zone. While it’s a ball, it’s a good set-up pitch. Mauricio is now thinking about having to catch up to that kind of heat.
PITCH 3: Vodnik uses the change-up down; Mauricio is off-stride because of the change of pace, but manages to get under it, popping it harmlessly to the infield. The arm action did noticeably slow however, something Vodnik will need to work on.
Here is a sequence where Vodnik uses all three pitches. The hitter is Fireflies third baseman Mark Vientos, a second-round pick in 2017 and ranked #4 in the Mets system by Baseball America.
PITCH 1: Pitching backwards, Vodnik goes first-pitch change-up and gets a generous strike call. Again the arm action is slowed, and Vientos likely picked up on it and didn’t swing.
PITCH 2: Vodnik goes back to the fastball, hitting the low target to re-set Vientos’s eye level. Vientos lays off and it’s called a ball, but it will set up the next pitch.
PITCH 3: Coming in almost at the same plane as the previous fastball, Vodnik’s slider likely looked like a grapefruit coming toward the plate, and Vientos bites. The slider drops fast and Vientos swings over the top. This is fun!
PITCH 4: Pure power. Mindful of the slider, Vientos is way late on the mid-90s cheese.
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Life on the Farm
ROME:
Rome went 2-4 on the week with one rainout and are 3-6 on the young season. After winning the season opener in Kannapolis, the R-Braves dropped the next five before righting the ship in their home opener on Thursday against Greenville. They followed that win up with a 5-0 shutout on Friday night, but a late-inning comeback didn’t quite get them over the finish line Saturday, losing 5-6.
Despite the poor record, Rome hasn’t played all that poorly. The offense has been paced by lead-off hitter Justin Dean, who has a 10-game hitting streak dating back to last season and is hitting .333/.400/.556 on the year (check out Wayne Cavadi’s profile of Dean over at Talking Chop), including hitting an inside-the-park home run on the first pitch of the season. Dean’s fellow outfielder Trey Harris has also gotten off to a hot start, hitting .375/.429/.563 so far on the young season. First baseman Griffin Benson is still trying to find consistency at the plate but has homered in two games in a row and has three overall. The R-Braves catching corps has shown good defensive chops, but the hits are falling in for Logan Brown to a .474/.500/.737 clip while Ricardo Rodriguez has been remarkably unlucky and has only tallied 2 hits on the season.
In the rotation, right-hander and Opening Day starter Nolan Kingham has thrown two good starts for a total of 10 innings and only 1 earned run allowed. Fellow starters Jose Olague and Jasseel De La Cruz both had trouble in their first starts but were superb in their second. Rome seems to be piggybacking some former starting pitchers in long relief rolls, specifically 2018 Danville standouts Jose Montilla and Tanner Lawson. In five outings between the two, they have only allowed 1 earned run and 3 hits in 11.1 innings.
FLORIDA:
The Fire Frogs have started their third season as a Braves affiliate going 5-5 and splitting every series so far; they play the Port St. Lucie Mets this afternoon for a rubber match. This been the best start for the team in those three years.
The Frogs have been led in the rotation by 21 year old righty Huascar Ynoa and 24 year old lefty Hayden Deal. In four starts between them, they have only allowed 2 earned runs in 18.1 innings while striking out 19. Young starter Freddy Tarnok was roughed up in his first outing but came back strong last week against Jupiter, firing 5 shutout innings. Right-hander Tristan Beck, the Braves 4th-round pick in 2018, has allowed 7 runs in two starts; in both starts, all of the runs have come in one inning.
On the offensive side, the Frogs have benefited from hot starts from catcher William Contreras and infielders Riley Delgado and Riley Unroe. Infield defense has been a bit of an adventure however as shortstop and defensive standout AJ Graffanino was injured in the opening game and the Frogs have shuffled Delgado, Unroe, Kevin Josephina, Brett Langhorne, and Drew Lugbauer around to provide opportunities. Delgado, who played only shortstop in 2018 with Rome and Florida, has mostly played third base this season, likely in anticipation of an eventual major league utility role.
MISSISSIPPI:
The M-Braves had an abbreviated schedule this week as they were rained out on the final game of their road trip against the Tennessee Smokies, followed by an off-day, then had consecutive rainouts on Friday and Saturday versus the Mobile BayBears. In the three games they did manage to play this week, they compiled a 1-2 record.
On the pitching front, the week started with a Patrick Weigel start that only lasted two-thirds of an inning due to control/umpiring issues and a limited pitch count as he works his way back from elbow surgery. He threw 12 strikes in 28 pitches during his outing. On Wednesday, Tucker Davidson started the Mississippi home opener where he had an adventurous, but effective outing where he pitched four hitless, scoreless innings before reaching his 75-pitch limit. Davidson struck out four, all looking, while also walking four, three of those to load the bases in a first inning where he also struck out the side. Davidson settled down after the first to get six outs via ground ball while only allowing two fly outs. The week wrapped up on an Ian Anderson start where he gave up two runs over 4.1 innings before reaching his pitch limit. In the bullpen, LHP Michael Mader had a week to forget in allowing six earned runs in 3.2 innings over two outings.
In the hitting department, RF Drew Waters started his first full week by going 4-for-13 with two walks and striking out just twice. CF Cristian Pache was 4-for-10 with a double, triple and six RBI. SS Ray-Patrick Didder was just 1-for-10 on the week with six strikeouts, but he also walked three times, was hit by a pitch and stole one base while having another potential one erased on a bad umpiring call.
GWINNETT:
The Stripers are coming off of a 3-3 week where the big story involved returning and rehabbing pitchers. Touki Toussaint started off the week with a three-inning start on Sunday where he allowed just one run but walked four on 60 pitches. He was scheduled to start again on Saturday, but was called up to Atlanta to replace Kyle Wright. Monday’s start belonged to Kolby Allard, who took up where he left off in 2018 by tossing 5.2 innings where he allowed just one unearned run while striking out four and walking none. On Tuesday, the rehabbing Mike Foltynewicz pitched 3.2 rain-interrupted innings on a pitch count. He will make one more rehab start on Monday before heading back to Atlanta next weekend if all goes well. On Wednesday, Bryse Wilson made his first Gwinnett start after being optioned from Atlanta, giving up six runs in six innings of work. Mike Soroka made a start on Thursday on his road back from a shoulder injury, he pitched three solid innings before tiring in the fourth and fifth innings and allowing four runs before reaching his 70 pitch limit.
For the relievers, the recently-optioned Shane Carle pitched four scoreless innings over two appearances while walking just one. Grant Dayton pitched a perfect inning on Monday while striking out two although he headed to the 7-day IL shortly thereafter. Dan Winkler appeared in two scoreless, hitless games although he walked the bases loaded before converting a save opportunity on Friday night while Jacob Webb gave up one run in three innings over three games while striking out five.
On offense, third baseman Austin Riley had a rough week in going 3-for-24 with just one RBI and no extra-base hits while striking out eight times and walking twice. Adam Duvall, who had been optioned by the Braves to Gwinnett just prior to the season, continued to show his progress in reducing strikeouts from spring training with just three in 25 plate appearances but still lacked his power stroke with no home runs. He still performed well with a .400/.520/.550 line for the week. Leadoff-hitting outfielder Rafael Ortega, who spent part of the 2018 season with the Miami Marlins, had two three-hit games on the week on his way to a .346/.370/.769 line while Andres Blanco was also a standout in batting .450 with two home runs and nine RBI.
POSITION PLAYER of the WEEK:
PITCHER of the WEEK:
Transaction Round-Up
4/6/2019: RHP Jason Creasy sent to Rk Danville from AA Mississippi. RHP Jonathan Aro promoted from Rk Danville to AA Mississippi.
In the 10 weeks of the season prior to the start of the short-season leagues, the Braves will use the Danville roster as a taxi squad for any pitcher that may need a rest. In this case, Creasy had thrown 52 pitches in a two-inning relief outing the night before. Creasy was a minor league Rule 5 draftee (the December 17 Hot Stove Report includes a write-up on him) and Aro was a minor league free agent signing (featured in the January 17 Hot Stove Report).
4/7/2019: SS AJ Graffanino placed on the Florida 7-day injured list. IF Kevin Josephina promoted from Rk Danville to A+ Florida.
Graffanino started the Fire Frogs home opener on April 4 but had to leave the game with an injury. Three days later, the Fire Frogs called for help and got Josephina, who has been in the Braves system since 2014, never advancing higher than advanced-A.
4/7/2019: C Alex Jackson promoted from AAA Gwinnett to MLB Atlanta. C Sal Giardina promoted from Rk Danville to AAA Gwinnett.
Jackson filled in for Brian McCann, who went on the injured list with a sore hamstring. McCann should return this week and Jackson will likely return to Gwinnett. The OFR #21 prospect in the Braves system, Jackson did an outstanding job after being thrust into the Atlanta starting line-up and catching Sean Newcomb and Julio Teheran in back-to-back starts in Atlanta and Colorado respectively. I profiled Jackson when he was called up. To backfill for Jackson, organizational catcher Sal Giardina was activated. With Rome pitching coach Kanekoa Texeira having gone to a full beard, Giardina has the 100% undisputed best mustache in the Braves organization.
4/10/2019: LHP Phil Pfeifer sent to Rk Danville from AA Mississippi. RHP Jason Creasy promted to AA Mississippi from Rk Danvile.
Unlike the initial Creasy switch-out, this move doesn’t seem to be motivated by Pfeifer throwing a lot of pitches.
4/11/2019: RHP Sean McLaughlin sent to Rk Danville from A+ Florida. LHP Dilmer Mejia promoted to A+ Florida from Rk Danville.
The 2018 Appalachian League Pitcher of the Year is set to make his 2019 debut for Florida. Former University of Georgia stand-out McLaughlin gets a breather after 40-pitch outing.
4/12/2019: C Zack Soria placed on the Florida 7-day injured list. SS AJ Graffanino activated from the Florida 7-day injured list.
Graffanino only required the minimum stay on the IL. Soria is the Fire Frogs 3rd catcher.
4/13/2019: RHP Kyle Wright optioned to AAA Gwinnett from MLB Atlanta. RHP Touki Toussaint recalled to MLB Atlanta from AAA Gwinnett.
After a shaky start and with an off-day on Tuesday, the Braves have elected to bring up Toussaint, and a good thing too. Toussaint was the hero of the night Saturday, coming on in relief of Sean Newcomb in the second inning and throwing six scoreless innings to save Atlanta’s bacon. Wright will take Toussaint’s spot in the Gwinnett rotation for now and continue to work on his command.
4/13/2019: LHP Grant Dayton placed on the Gwinnett 7-day injured list. RHP Elian Leyva actived from the Gwinnett 7-day injured list.
Former Dodger lefty Dayton had thrown two innings over two scoreless outings. Dayton is coming back from UCL replacement, so it’s not surprising if his progress occasionally is paused with IL stints. Leyva was a relief workhorse for Mississippi last season.
Mailbag Q&A
Thanks to members of the Outfield Fly Rule Facebook group and fans on the Twitters for questions!
Q: I know it’s early, but I also know this would be a fun question for people to hear you answer… who is the “Acuña” of 2019? Which player do you think is most likely to take huge leaps and bounds this year? – M. Peterson
To refresh memories, in 2017 Acuña started the season in advanced-A Florida, was promoted to AA Mississippi after a month, and was moved up to AAA Gwinnett two months after that. Obviously that’s a rare feat, but don’t forget that the Braves actually had two players advance like that in 2017: lefty Luiz Gohara also started the season at Florida and actually made it all the way to Atlanta by the end of the season. Even crazier, last year Juan Soto of the Nationals actually started the season in class A Hagerstown and made it all the way to Washington before the end of May.
Honestly, I don’t see a player like that in the system right now. Acuña and Soto are truly special talents, and Gohara probably was slotted too low to start with. If Drew Waters or CJ Alexander had started the season with Florida I would have named them as possibilities, but both started in AA so I would say that disqualifies them. William Contreras is a great talent, but I just don’t see the Braves moving a catcher up the ladder that fast. So I’m going to say right-hander Huascar Ynoa may be a very, very slim possibility to move quickly. His stuff has shown an uptick, he’s already on the 40-man roster, and if they decide to move him to the bullpen he could probably get big league hitters out right now. But… still not very likely.
Q: Do we have any dominant relievers in Gwinnett? – P. Summers
Left-handers Corbin Clouse and Thomas Burrows are potentially dominant relievers in the majors. Braves fans have seen right-handers Shane Carle and Dan Winkler pitch extensively in Atlanta in 2018 and will presumably have the opportunity again this year, though both are better suited to mid-leverage situations. Jacob Webb is on the 40-man roster and probably falls into this category as well. There are starters that could potentially be dominant relievers if employed in that role, with Bryse Wilson foremost in my mind though I would personally prefer if he continued to work in a rotation. My favorite bullpen candidates though are Mississippi starters Patrick Weigel and Tucker Davidson.
Q: Should the Braves cash in and trade Gohara before it’s too late? – N. Lyle
It wouldn’t make sense to trade Gohara before he’s had a chance to rebuild value.
Q: With Inciarte struggling at the lead-off spot and fans like myself getting frustrated with him, would it be a good idea to have Acuña lead off and move Ender down in the lineup? Has he become expendable now? – L. Rodriguez
While the line-up order is a never-ending source of fan and sports talk radio conjecture, opinion, and complaints, in the end the line-up doesn’t actually matter all that much as long as a manager remembers one basic rule: put your best hitters toward the top.
At times over the past several years, a list of the Braves best hitters would have included Ender Inciarte. Even if you disregard Inciarte’s current poor production as the result of small sample size — and you probably should — the fact is that the Braves’ line-up is gotten better around him. In fact even if Inciarte was at his best, he is arguably the least offensively valuable hitter in the line-up, and that includes when Camargo is in there as well.
So yes, it would be a good idea for Acuña to hit lead-off. Or Albies. Or Donaldson, or Markakis, or Freeman, or Camargo, or Swanson. Any of these choices would currently be better than Inciarte, even if Inciarte was hitting well.
For the second part of your question though, no I do not think Inciarte is necessarily expendable, though obviously there would be trades that the Braves could or should entertain. Hitting or not, Inciarte is one of the top defensive outfielders in the major leagues, and that shouldn’t be discounted even if that value doesn’t show up in box scores (or the back of his baseball card, h/t Donaldson). Up-the-middle defense is still a key component of most championship teams, and while I think Acuña could handle the position if necessary, the overall defense takes a significant drop when Inciarte isn’t in the line-up. For that reason Inciarte isn’t expendable and is still worth rostering and playing everyday, at least against right-handed pitching.
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