Welcome to the Braves Farm Report, where we will take a look at the Braves farm system and look at trends and players that seem interesting, and give first hand accounts of what we’re seeing down on the farm.
SHAMELESS PLUG: As a companion to the Farm Report, check out our brand new podcast, the OFR Farm Report, co-hosted by Andy Harris and Matt Chrietzberg, and out every Monday on Android, iTunes, TuneIn, and Stitcher.
Austin Riley Is Major-League Ready
Filed in the “good problem to have category” is the circumstances that the Atlanta Braves find themselves in right now. They have a prospect in Austin Riley that is absolutely on fire. Perhaps you’ve heard, but Riley is on an amazing home run tear for the AAA Gwinnett Stripers, hitting .426/.507/1.115 over his last sixteen games (yes, that last number is his slugging percentage, not his on-base+slugging), with 18 extra base hits including 12 home runs, including three in his last two games.
Overall he is hitting .309/.386/.691 with 14 home runs on the season, retaking first place in home runs in the International League from Louisville second baseman Josh VanMeter last night. Amazingly, this comes after he was only hitting .213/.280/.347 with 2 home runs over his first 19 games.
According to Riley, as detailed in this Baseball America piece this week, he and coaches have been working on correcting what they diagnosed late last year as a swing path problem that was causing him not to be able to catch up to mid-90s fastballs. The adjustment has allowed his bat to stay in the strike zone longer, allowing his hands to make adjustments. This is an area that I have watched Riley continually improve since 2016 with Rome. Riley is a strong young man, and that includes his hands and wrists; when he’s seeing the ball well, he’s able to make those adjustments and he can go on long productive runs, but nothing has come close to the hot streak he’s been on now.
Which brings us back to what the Braves are going to do. Brought up as a third baseman, that position is occupied in the majors by Josh Donaldson. Riley has also shown he can handle first base if necessary, but Freddie Freeman will not be taking a seat for anyone. For that reason Riley has played three of the last four days in left field. This was a position Riley had played a couple of times in spring training, but now with his offense forcing open the doors of the SunTrust Park clubhouse for him, getting Riley acclimated to the outfield has become an imperative. In his three games at Gwinnett as a left fielder, Riley has shown himself to be competent, if somewhat tentative. For a large man, Riley is athletic and can cover ground once under speed, and with experience and a very strong arm should be able to provide at least average defensive value. However, without that experience fans should be realistic about what Riley would be in the outfield on a regular basis. Watching Johan Camargo play the outfield over the first part of this season likely gives a reasonable expectation.
Looking at the Braves offense this season, the team has gotten strong offensive performances from every spot except one. Centerfielder Ender Inciarte has always been a slow starter, with a career .257/.310/.350 hitting line in April and May. This year has been slightly worse than those career marks, with a .217/.296/.325 line on the season to date. Of course the primary feature of having Inciarte on his team isn’t what he does at the plate anyway, but the Gold Glove-caliber defense he provides in the field. But even that has seemingly slumped so far this year; advanced defensive metrics rate him a roughly average defender in centerfield so far this season, and his throwing to bases this year has been shockingly erratic after years of excellent all-round play.
A move to put Riley in left field would mean sliding Ronald Acuna to center field, the position that he primarily played in the minor leagues. This weakens two outfield positions in order to strengthen one spot in the line-up, so on balance Riley would need to provide a big boost in order for the move to create value for the Braves. It’s a decision that isn’t without risks, and strong up-the-middle defense tends to be a hallmark of championship teams. That said, Austin Riley deserves his shot, and the Atlanta Braves need to make this happen.
Life On the Farm
ROME:
Rome went 3-3 on the week with one rain-out, highlighted by a 10-run outburst on Friday night against Greenville, aided by some suspect defense. This helped wash away the taste of an 8-0 shutout in the second game of a doubleheader on getaway day Sunday in Lakeland.
Odalvi Javier started that game, the worst outing from a Rome rotation that has been shaky over the last couple of turns following the back-to-back promotions of Nolan Kingham and Jasseel De La Cruz to Florida. Right-hander Trey Riley continues to dance around the tombstones in his starts, often getting into trouble due to lack of control but often getting out of trouble by making key pitches at key times; that didn’t happen enough last night however and he gave up 5 runs in 3 innings in a series opener against Columbia. Righty Jose Olague gave the best starting pitching performance of the week, scattering 7 hits and 2 runs over 5 innings, his second Quality Start in as many games.
The bullpen however continued their strong work, lead this week by right-handed co-closer Kurt Hoekstra. The converted infielder pitched 3 innings over 2 appearances and struck out 6 of the 13 batters he faced. After a couple of rough outings, 19-year-old right-hander Victor Vodnik came back strong this week, tossing 3 scoreless innings in his only appearance, running a pitch count of 38 in what may be the start of stretching him out for starting assignments.
Offensively the top performer was once again right-fielder Trey Harris, who hit .313/.500/.500 with a home run this week. Harris is in the top 5 in the SAL in hits, batting average, on-base percentage, and triples and probably needs to be advanced a level to get challenged. Centerfielder and lead-off man Justin Dean only went 4-for-18 but walked 7 times to boost his on-base percentage to .440 for the week allowing him to score 5 times and go 2-for-2 in stolen base attempts, giving him 12 on the season.
FLORIDA:
The Fire Frogs went 3-8 in a grueling week that featured a double-header last Sunday. The Frogs have played solid baseball this season, probably the best in the franchise’s short existence, but the results just haven’t shown up for them and their record is now a disappointing 14-21.
The problems this week were primarily on the position player side, as the team got solid starting pitching performances from all of their regular starters. Left-hander Hayden Deal and righty Jasseel De La Cruz each had two Quality Starts apiece (5 earned runs in 13 innings with 16 strikeouts for De La Cruz, 2 earned in 11.2 innings for Deal) with fellow starters Nolan Kingham, Freddy Tarnok, and Phil Pfeifer each providing a QS. Only emergency starter Keith Weisenberg was roughed up.
Former Georgia Bulldog Sean McLaughlin pitched 3 shutout innings of relief and now has a run of 5 scoreless appearances covering 8 innings. Right-hander Matt Withrow made his second scoreless multi-inning appearance since being activated from the injured list, and it looks like the Braves will be piggy-backing his outings with Pfeifer’s.
Minor league Rule 5 draft pick Riley Unroe continues to impress, this week hitting .357/.455/.571 and pressing his case for a promotion to AA, a level that he has achieved in 2017 and 2018. Second baseman Brett Langhorne has hit well in May so far and continued that trend, going .261/.333/.391 this week. The rest of the Fire Frogs offense struggled however, including catcher William Contreras who only went 3-for-23.
MISSISSIPPI:
The M-Braves had a middling 3-4 record this week that had great pitching by a staff that gave up just nineteen runs for the week but was overshadowed by an offense that produced just a paltry sixteen runs during that same time.
The starting pitching was led by OFR Pitcher of the Week Kyle Muller, who gave up just one run in fourteen innings over two starts while striking out ten. More importantly, he walked just five in those fourteen innings, greatly improving his control over his last few starts. Patrick Weigel also had two starts on the week where he gave up just one run over 6.1 innings while striking out six and walking only one hitter. Weigel made a big step in his progress on Saturday when he came out for the fourth inning and struck out the only hitter he faced before being removed at 48 pitches, the first time this season he has passed 40. Joey Wentz had a nice follow-up in his first start since flirting with a perfect game in giving up just two earned runs over six innings on Tuesday while Tucker Davidson had another effective start on Wednesday in allowing just one run over five innings. Ian Anderson had a rough start on Thursday where he gave up four runs over 3.2 innings on 90 pitches before being removed after taking a ground ball comebacker off of his neck, although his removal appeared to be precautionary.
Several unheralded relievers had nice weeks, led by Claudio Custodio’s six scoreless innings over three appearances. Justin Kelly had two scoreless outings over 5.1 innings while Jason Hursh, Josh Graham and Connor Johnstone also had multiple scoreless appearances. Huascar Ynoa only appeared in one game, but he pitched three shutout innings while striking out four and throwing 30 strikes in 45 pitches.
There wasn’t much to speak of offensively for the M-Braves, but Drew Waters led the way in hitting .345/.367/.552 (10-for-29) with three doubles and a home run while stealing three bases. Fellow outfielder Cristian Pache had a rough week in going just 4-for-20 with eight strikeouts (.200/.238/.350) and has missed the last two games with a sore back. Catcher Jonathan Morales had an off-week in going just 1-for-17 with a walk and HBP while shortstop Ray-Patrick Didder continued his season-long struggle in going just 1-for-18 with seven strikeouts and had a game in which he had three errors. Didder is now hitting just .133/.269/.233 for the season.
GWINNETT:
The Gwinnett Stripers muddled through a 3-4 week where they had to cobble together a starting staff after the promotions of Kyle Wright and Sean Newcomb to Atlanta. Kolby Allard had two quality starts on the week where he was effective, if not spectacular. Bryse Wilson also started two games, although he didn’t fare as well in allowing eight runs and sixteen hits over ten innings of work. Touki Toussaint also started one game that went rather poorly where he allowed five runs, eight hits, three walks, a wild pitch and two hit batsmen in just 4.2 innings of work. The relievers mostly pitched well: Jonny Venters had two scoreless one-inning appearances before being called back up to Atlanta, Wes Parsons didn’t give up any earned runs in four innings over two outings, and Grant Dayton had a scoreless outing after being optioned from Atlanta. On the negative side, Thomas Burrows and Jesse Biddle each had one great outing for the week and another where they pitched poorly. On Thursday, Burrows didn’t give up any hits in 1.1 innings but walked four and gave up a run. On Friday, Biddle gave up two runs on five hits over just 1.1 innings. Minor-league veteran Ben Rowen pitched 3.1 scoreless innings in just one outing on the week, but brought his Gwinnett total to 19.0 scoreless innings over seven appearances.
As mentioned above, the big development this week was the first appearances of Austin Riley in left field. Atlanta Braves manager Brian Snitker initially said that Riley would make a couple of appearances in left field each week, but he started there in three of the last four games of the week. The position move didn’t seem to negatively affect Riley at the plate as he continued his rampage through International League pitching to the tune of a .308/.438/.808 line for the week with four more home runs. Outfielder Adam Duvall’s stats returned to earth this week with a .167/.259/.333 week with both of his extra-base hits for the week coming in Friday’s game. Catcher Alex Jackson got his first significant playing time since returning from the injured list and impressed with a 6-for-20 week with a double and three home runs. Outfielder Travis Demeritte had another fine week with a .273/.320/.591 line in which he had a double and two home runs while striking out just five times in 25 plate appearances. So far this season, Demeritte has managed to avoid the extended stretches of offensive futility that have plagued him in the past two years with Mississippi. Unfortunately, outfielder Rafael Ortega had a down week in going just 2-for-22 for a .091/.259/.136 line.
POSITION PLAYER of the WEEK:
PITCHER of the WEEK:
Transaction Round-Up
5/8/2019: RHP Kyle Wright promoted to MLB Atlanta
5/8/2019: LHP Grant Dayton optioned to AAA Gwinnett
With Josh Tomlin and Sean Newcomb now apparently needed for set-up duties, the Braves brought up Wright to be the long man as needed. So far he hasn’t been needed, and the Braves need to either utilize him or send him back to Gwinnett soon.
Dayton had good results with Atlanta in first appearances with the team, but allowed several baserunners. Possessing shut-down stuff prior to his UCL replacement surgery, Dayton still has some work to do to get all the way back.
5/10/2019: LHP Jonny Venters activated from 10-day injured list for MLB Atlanta
5/10/2019: LHP A.J. Minter optioned to AAA Gwinnett
Venters had not allowed an earned run in 7 rehab outings with Gwinnett, only allowing 5 baserunners. Whatever was ailing him, Venters seems to have worked through it, and he earned a save in his first outing back with Atlanta.
Minter was expected to hold down high-leverage situations after a solid 2018 season spent entirely with Atlanta, but he just hasn’t been consistent enough to entrust. The main culprit has been his slider, which has never shown as much bite and depth as it did in the minors, with Minter trying to compensate by leaning heavily on his cutter; that worked to some degree last season, but major league hitters are looking cutter now. Hopefully Minter can spend his time in AAA re-discovering his breaking ball, and hopefully his stay will be short.
Mailbag
Q: With Riley, Waters, and Pache all having incredible starts to the year, which prospect or prospects do you see the Braves being most comfortable trading? If the Braves are going to get a high-end player, one or two of these players would have to be involved. – D. McHan
A: If there was a deal for a truly game-changing player at multiple years of control, I think the front office would be comfortable trading anyone. That said, I doubt that kind of player would be available in-season. A rental player like Will Smith or Madison Bumgarner of the Giants (just as examples) shouldn’t require any of those three, or William Contreras or Ian Anderson either.
Q: Which starting pitching prospects do you see in the bullpen during this season and next for the long haul? Who could the Braves target in the draft in those two first round picks? – T. Pittman
A: Any pitcher that rates as strong enough to be a starting pitcher long term would have more value to the organization in a trade rather than a long run in the bullpen. In the short term, Toussaint, Wilson, and Wright should continue to get opportunities to help the big league club in the bullpen this year, but I don’t see any of those guys being relievers for significant time in their careers.
As we get closer to the draft we may get a better handle on the Braves draft strategy; right now I can’t claim to have any insight, especially with Dana Brown taking over the draft calls from the departed Brian Bridges. There’s some fun things they could possibly do with the sixth biggest draft money pool, but right now, anyone around the #9 and #21 spots on Doc Herbert of Talking Chop‘s composite draft rankings seem possible.
Q: Travis Demeritte. trade piece or keeper? – J. Moreno
A: As Matt and I discussed on the podcast last week, the Braves need to figure this question out before he becomes eligible for minor league free agency this offseason. Right now I’m guessing he’d be part of a trade, but if there’s a team out there that thinks, for example, Charlie Culberson is a starting-caliber second baseman for them, the Braves could trade him and promote Demeritte to that bench spot.
Q: What are your thoughts on Justin Dean? I just saw an MLB article that claimed he is our best performer from the ‘18 draft.
A: I like Dean quite a bit, and I named him as a lower-tier prospect to watch on the Knockahoma Nation prospect summit before the season. He was the #40 prospect on the OFR list and I suspect he’ll climb quite a bit for midseason. He’s a very strong defender, an excellent baserunner, and has a strong hit tool. I still think he may have untapped power as well, but he seems content working counts and hitting liners in his role as lead-off man for Rome. He also has strong intangibles and is a clubhouse leader. The caveat is that he is 22 years old and should be doing well at the A-ball level. There’s a bit of a glut in outfielders and both Dean and teammate Trey Harris need a push up the ladder, but spots at A+ Florida already have Greyson Jenista, Izzy Wilson, and Jefrey Ramos, all strong prospects in their own rights.
Q: Do you think Sean Newcomb will be a part of our relief? Also will Touki Toussaint be a part of our relief or maybe a starter? What are the Braves plans?
A: With back-to-back appearances, it looks like the Braves will keep Newcomb in the bullpen for the time being instead of keeping him on a starter’s schedule as they have done with the other starting pitching depth. While this has been a boon for the beleaguered bullpen, it does somewhat diminish Newcomb’s value, but at this point the Braves plans are likely limited to finding anyone that can provide quality innings in whatever role they can handle.
Toussaint will likely continue to provide long relief and spot starts, but it feels like if there is an opening in the rotation that Toussaint, rather than Newcomb, Wright, or Bryse Wilson, will be given the first crack at filling it.
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