Welcome to the Braves Farm Report, where we will take a look at the Braves farm system and look at trends and players that seem interesting, and give first hand accounts of what we’re seeing down on the farm.
Please check out our articles this week regarding the draft and our OFR Farm Report Podcast Draft Special! The regular podcast resumes on Monday.
Draft: Day One
Draft: Day Two
Draft: Day Three
Big Prospects Promoted and Honored
Believe it or not, the minor league season is approaching the halfway point. With Memorial Day traditionally around the time organizations evaluate their talent both for promotional purposes and to prepare for the upcoming trading deadline, it’s not uncommon for promotions to occur around this time of year, and the Braves are no different. Here’s the big ones from this week:
- OF Trey Harris promoted to A+Florida
- C William Contreras promoted to AA Mississippi
- OF Greyson Jenista promoted to AA Mississippi
You can find more detail in the transactions section below.
This week also brought more minor league All-Star announcements with the South Atlantic and Southern Leagues honoring their top players.
Rome was tabbed with four All-Stars:
- OF Trey Harris
- C Logan Brown
- 2B Greg Cullen
- RHP Jose Montilla
Harris will not attend the festivities because of his promotion. Two Rome Braves who could have made good cases for inclusion are OF Justin Dean and RHP Victor Vodnik, though Dean has missed the last two weeks with a hand injury.
Mississippi was honored with six All-Star selections that read like a who’s-who of Braves prospects:
- OF Cristian Pache
- OF Drew Waters
- RHP Ian Anderson
- RHP Jeremy Walker
- LHP Kyle Muller
- LHP Tucker Davidson
The game will be on June 18 in Biloxi. We’ll have to see if all of these M-Braves will be able to attend before they also get promoted.
Congratulations to all the Braves minor league All-Stars.
Life On the Farm
DSL BRAVES:
The Way-Down-South Braves have started their 2019 campaign on a winning note, going 4-3 on the week. The offense this season already seems to be a tick above last year’s squad with 10 and 8 run efforts in wins this week, although they also were shut out once.
Incoming third baseman Jose Dilone has picked up the first 6 hits of his pro career and has swiped 3 bases (and been caught another 3 times) and has walked 4 times as well. Fellow newcomer Geraldo Quintero has also gotten off to a fast start, hitting .278/.350/.444 with one of the Braves 3 homers on the season.
Opening Day starter Jorge Bautista pitched 3.2 scoreless in his first outing but ran into some problems on Friday, giving up 5 runs in only 2.2 innings. Fellow DSL veteran Roddery Munoz, all of 19 years old, had the best start of the first week, throwing 4 scoreless innings against the A’s and only allowing 3 baserunners. Lefty reliever Raulin Celedonio has not allowed a run in two outings covering 6.1 innings.
ROME:
Rome is enduring a harsh 7-game losing streak that has all but torpedoed their chances at a first-half division crown and an automatic spot in the SAL playoffs.
The reason for the slide isn’t attributable to any one area of the team and no one in particular is playing poorly, but the team has not gotten any of the breaks or have been able to finish off rallies to snatch victories from close games.
The team got two soild starts from Odalvi Javier this week (losing both) and another from Gabriel Noguera (didn’t matter). Relievers Dilmer Mejia, Victor Vodnik, Jake Higginbotham, Tanner Lawson, and Luis Mora allowed only one run in a total of 16.2 innings, but it didn’t matter.
On the offensive side, catcher Logan Brown continued his good work at the plate, hitting .450/.450/.500 while back-up catcher/first baseman/DH Hagen Owenby contributed a .313/.313/.500 line. Shortstop Carlos Paraguate, who had slumped to a .128/.148/.179 batting line for the month of May, stepped up this week to hit .308/.438/.308 and had a 9-game hitting streak snapped on Friday.
After starting hot after returning to the team from extended spring training in mid-May, infielder Derian Cruz has gone cold and has only gotten on base twice in his last six games.
FLORIDA:
The Fire Frogs had a winning week, going 4-3 on the backs of strong starts from left-handers Hayden Deal and Phil Pfeifer, an offensive shot in the arm from newcomer Trey Harris, and some outstanding bullpen work.
About the later, right-hander Walter Borkovich was strong this week, pitching 4.1 innings without allowing an earned run in a 3-inning emergency start and a 4-out relief outing. Right-hander Daysbel Hernandez continued a strong season with 3 innings of shut-out work and should probably be considered for a promotion. Righty Kurt Hoekstra had his best week as a Fire Frog, pitching 4 scoreless innings over 2 outings. Bradley Roney continued his good work, throwing 4.2 scoreless relief innings; he hasn’t allowed a run in his return from a year-plus IL stint. Brandon White and Brooks Wilson also were strong.
Nolan Kingham had a rough start this week, allowing 7 earned runs in a 4.1 inning outing, coming on the heels of his second complete-game shutout of the season.
Trey Harris was promoted midweek but did not skip a beat at the plate, racking up 7 hits and 2 walks to go .389/.476/.444 in 5 games with Florida. Infielder Riley Delgado was also strong at the plate this week, hitting .321/.387/.429 with a double and a triple. Delgado has taken over the shortstop position after the promotion of Riley Unroe to AA Mississippi two weeks ago.
MISSISSIPPI:
The M-Braves dropped 4 from a 5-game series at home against Biloxi before winning the opener of another 5-game series in Jackson, but the big news of the week was the arrival of reinforcements from Florida in the form of catcher William Contreras and outfielder Greyson Jenista.
Offensively the star was outfielder Drew Waters, who earns OFR Position Player of the Week by hitting .353/.500/.588 on the strength of 6 hits, 4 walks, and a HBP in a pinch-hitting appearance on Friday. He also is 2-for-2 with a triple in Saturday’s game that was suspended due to rain in the 3rd inning; those hits aren’t reflected in his batting line. Fellow outfield prospect Cristian Pache only got 4 hits on the week but he made them count, hitting two homers, including this laser beam.
Meanwhile for #Braves Double-A @mbraves, Cristian Pache was busy… pic.twitter.com/tWzlX1s0Iv
— Grant McAuley (@grantmcauley) June 5, 2019
Shortstop Riley Unroe had a good week at the plate as well, going .364/.391/.455, including 8 hits (and two doubles) in his last 4 games.
After a string of 7 consecutive starts without allowing more than 2 earned runs, left-hander Kyle Muller reminded everyone that he’s still human, surrendering 5 earned in 4.1 innings against Biloxi on Thursday. Jasseel De La Cruz pitched his second Quality Start in a row for Mississippi, allowing 3 earned in 6 innings despite not having his best stuff. Right-hander Ian Anderson turned in the best Mississippi start of the week, only allowing one earned run in 5.2 innings. Lefty Tucker Davidson had a solid 3-earned, 5 inning start early in the week and was working into his 3rd scoreless inning on Saturday before the rain caused the suspension. Assuming he doesn’t keep pitching in that game, Davidson’s season ERA will drop to an astounding 1.75.
Right-hander Josh Graham had two good outings out of the ‘pen, including a dominating two-inning save Friday against Jackson in which he struck out 5 batters. Righty Jeremy Walker also continued his good work with two scoreless outings; the newly minted Southern League All-Star sports a 2.59 ERA on the season.
GWINNETT:
The Stripers went 3-3 on the week with Saturday night’s game against the Durham Bulls postponed by rain, disrupting what was planned to be newly signed free agent Dallas Keuchel‘s first of two planned starts to prepare him for assuming a spot in the Atlanta rotation.
Another lefty starter however pitched a gem this week as Kolby Allard earned OFR Pitcher of the Week on the strength of an 8-inning, 7 strikeout performance against the Bulls on Thursday night, only allowing one earned run on a solo home run. Right-hander Bryse Wilson also had a Quality Start, allowing three earned in 6 innings while striking out 7. Wilson has quietly established himself as one of the most reliable starting pitchers in what has become a high-octane offensive International League. In Wilson’s last five starts he has pitched to a 2.25 ERA and allowed opponents only 2 home runs and a .207/.250/.331 batting line against him.
Patrick Weigel had two starts this week, giving up a total of 3 earned runs in 7.1 innings. Most notable is his pitch count in his last start Friday night against Durham, running 59 pitches; this is the first time the organization has allowed him to approach 60 pitches in a game in his comeback from UCL surgery.
It was a tough week however for Striper relievers with the normally reliable Ben Rowen, Wes Parsons, Shane Carle, and A.J. Minter all having rough outings. However, shout-out to the fantastically mustachioed Sal Giardina, who pitched a scoreless inning in a blow-out.
The long-ball lovin’ Stripers continued their assault on the franchise home run record by mashing 12 taters on the week, including 3 each by veterans Andres Blanco and Adam Duvall. Catcher Alex Jackson had 2 homers as well, with Travis Demeritte, Luis Marte, Giardina, and the newly promoted Jonathan Morales all hitting one. Blanco was especially good at the plate this week, hitting .346/.469/.769 with 2 doubles to go with the 3 taters.
POSITION PLAYER of the WEEK:
PITCHER of the WEEK:
Transaction Round-Up
6/3/2019: RHP Brooks Wilson promoted to A+ Florida from extended spring training
6/3/2019: RHP Troy Bacon assigned to extended spring training from A+ Florida
It’s been a tough season for 2017 4th-rounder Troy Bacon, who’s stuff just hasn’t translated to performance. He’ll get some time to work on getting himself straighted out.
Wilson has done very well in his opportunities with the Frogs, but has drawn the short straw when it comes to who is switched out to bring up fresh arms. Hopefully this time he will remain rostered for a long while.
6/3/2019: RHP Jose Rafael De Paula assigned to AAA Gwinnett from extended spring training
6/3/2019: RHP Jonathan Aro assigned to AA Mississippi from AAA Gwinnett
6/3/2019: RHP Connor Johnstone assigned to extended spring training from AA Mississippi
De Paula returns from a short rest period, and presumably will re-take the mantle of Stripers closer. Johnstone gets his own rest period after pitching in back-to-back games for the first time in his pro career.
6/4/2019: OF Trey Harris promoted to A+ Florida from A Rome
6/4/2019: OF Jeremy Fernandez assigned to A Rome from A+ Florida
At the time of his promotion Harris was third in all of minor league baseball among qualified hitters in wRC+ and he has 7 more hits in his 4 games with the Fire Frogs since this move. For Fernandez, his time in Florida was designed to be temporary, and Rome is the appropriate level for OFR’s #45 prospect.
6/4/2019: 3B Jordan Rodgers activated from the 7-day injured list for A+ Florida
6/4/2019: RHP Freddy Tarnok placed on the 7-day injured list for A+ Florida
No word on what Tarnok’s injury is, but the young right-hander has struggled performance-wise in his first season at the advanced-A level.
6/5/2019: C William Contreras promoted to AA Mississippi from A+ Florida
6/5/2019: C Jonathan Morales promoted to AAA Gwinnett from AA Mississippi
6/5/2019: C Zack Soria assigned to A+ Florida from AAA Gwinnett
The Braves top catching prospect gets the mid-season bump to AA. While his overall offensive numbers may not elicit gasps of amazement, for the Braves front office catchers are primarily evaluated on their defense, and Contreras was given specific things to work on, and he must have accomplished them for the Braves to make this move.
It’s a similar story for Morales, who after a hot start to the season with the bat has fallen into a deep slump, but whom the organization feels needs regular playing time, which he would not get playing behind Contreras in Mississippi.
6/6/2019: OF Greyson Jenista promoted from A+ Florida to AA Mississippi
6/6/2019: OF Connor Lien placed on the 7-day injured list for AA Mississippi
Similar to Contreras, Jenista’s offensive numbers look pedestrian, but those are not the metrics the Braves are looking at when determining promotions. In the minors, especially in the lower minors, process will always be more important to evaluators than performance.
6/7/2019: RHP Ryan Shetter promoted to A+ Florida from A Rome
6/7/2019: RHP Matt Hartman assigned to A Rome from A+ Florida
These two pitchers have been shuttling between Florida, Rome, and extended spring training for the last month. Hartman was sent to make a spot start for Rome, though it ended up getting rained out.
6/7/2019: LHP Dallas Keuchel optioned to AAA Gwinnett from MLB Atlanta
6/8/2019: RHP Chad Sobokta placed on the 7-day injured list for Gwinnett
Keuchel’s debut as a Striper didn’t happen due to poor weather and will instead make his first Braves organization start at Rome on Monday.
Sobotka had only appeared in two games to date in the month of June. It is unclear if this IL stint is related to the abdominal strain he suffered earlier.
Mailbag Q&A
Q: You think Keuchel will give the Braves a better rotation now? Do you think the Braves will go after another starter and bullpen help before or after the All-Star break? – J. Mitchell
Yes, Keuchel should help stabilize the rotation. I seems more likely to happen after the All-Star break, but yes I expect the Braves to make at least one more move to address the bullpen and overall pitching depth. I also would expect them to be active for another outfielder if Ender Inciarte remains hurt/ineffective and Nick Markakis doesn’t return to form.
Q: I still don’t understand the draft. Why did the Braves do what they did? I realize you don’t “know know”, but possible reasons that make sense? – M. Smith
It’s definitely a different sort of draft than what Braves fans had gotten used to during the rebuild. However, there are some parallels to last year’s draft.
- Pick one was who was at the top of their board, as Carter Stewart was last year.
- This Braves front office likes position players with good hit tools and offer something defensively. Last year they picked up Jenista, Graffanino, Moritz, Dean, and Harris that fit that profile. This year they drafted Langeliers, Shewmake, Philip, Blair, King, and Mathews in that same kind of mold.
- The Braves drafted much more upside prep talent than I think most anticipated. They will not be able to sign them all, but the selection of Beau Philip and the likely well-underslot value he provides could allow them to sign more than expected. The Braves can then give over-slot offers to them on limited-time only deals. If the Braves only sign half of the impressive prep talent drafted that includes Michael Harris, Stephen Paolini, Vaughn Grissom, Tyler Owens, Jared Johnson, Joey Estes, Mahki Backstrom, Kadon Morton, Anthony Hall, Mitchell Jackson, and Joshua Rolling then this could shape up to quietly be an outstanding draft.
- Another “type” the Braves seem to be looking for is polished collegiate pitchers who are having “down” years performance-wise and may be overlooked. Last year the Braves got Beck, Kingham, Higginbotham, and Lawson that fit that niche. This season it’s Gordon, Vines, DeVito, and Acuña.
- Another broad group the Braves have taken from heavily the last several years is Division II players with tools. Division II is often overlooked by media since they don’t have the resources of major league teams to find that talent, so there’s usually not a lot of information about them in the public on draft day. The lists of interesting D2 players the Braves have drafted the last two years is huge. All they need is one or two of those players to hit to potentially swing an entire draft. Last year they got Alexander and Dean from this pool of players.
In short, I think this draft makes a lot of sense for where the Braves are right now. In Atlanta right now is a core of players that can be together for awhile. There’s another wave of talent building in AA and AAA. This draft contains a lot of projects that need help in areas where Braves player development has had some success over the last several years and could overcome the challenges brought about by international sanctions that really kick in this year.
Q: When is Tyler Flowers contract up, and will Dansby Swanson be locked up before the end of the year? – M. Dilday
Flowers signed a one-year extension in August last season for $4 million. It has a $6 million club option for 2020 with a $2 million buy-out. I had assumed that the club would exercise the option with Brian McCann only working off a one-year deal, but it seems like Flowers is declining defensively, which is the primary reason he’s on the club. He’s still an elite-level pitch framer, but to the “eye test” it seems like his other defensive attributes are worsening.
I think it’s likely the Braves and Swanson pursue an extension, but I would guess that happens in the off-season.
Q: Is Austin Riley hitting a wall? What adjustments are pitchers making and what does Riley need to do to adjust to it? – Also M. Smith
After getting beat up so much by Riley early on, it looks like pitchers are giving Riley a steady diet of breaking balls out of the zone or just on the black. The adjustment for Riley is what we’re starting to see, him staying back and taking that pitch the other way. It’s an adjustment I’ve seen him make before so he should continue to be productive.
Q: What’s wrong with Kyle Wright? – P. Clark
Nothing that pitching to live batters won’t eventually cure. His breaking pitches have suffered from the yo-yoing from the majors to the minors and back again. His fastball still has plenty of life, but I think he needs a solid run of regular starts at Gwinnett to get back into his groove.
Q: Is Demeritte a real prospect again? What are expectations for him? Trade piece with value up? – Also also M. Smith
Honestly, it’s been tempting to chalk up Demeritte’s success this season to the MLB rabbit ball and just getting out of TrustMark Park, but he’s also just clearly seeing the ball better. He’s striking out less and walking more, which is a better sign toward his growth than even the home runs. Still, he’ll be 25 years old by the end of the season and he hasn’t played in the infield in a season and a half, so he’s unlikely to break into my Top 20 at least.
I imagine the Braves would make him available if a team were interested; conversely, he could a back-fill at the major league level if a team were really interested in Johan Camargo or Charlie Culberson.
Q: What happened to Tristan Beck? – P. Fisk
He suffered a groin pull during his last start back on April 26. I have not heard when he’s expected to return.
Q: The Hayden the real Deal? Or just older pitcher at lower level? – Also also also M. Smith
He’s real, and he’s spectacular thanks to a plus cutter. Ivan the Great and Eric Cole did a good piece on this for Talking Chop that I’d recommend. I don’t know what his role will be going forward, but he really needs to be challenged with tougher competition soon.
Q: Do you guys see Luis Gohara pitching this season…or ever again? And when is CJ Alexander slated to return? – C. McLemore
Maybe? I have heard that he’s not been throwing in extended spring training, so whatever is ailing him seems serious.
Alexander had surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow on April 30, and that has about an 8-week recovery time. After that we’ll likely see him in some rehab outings before he resumes his roster spot in Mississippi. I’d pencil late July as a realistic time for his return.
Q: What happened to Aaron Blair? -J. DeAngelis
Blair had surgery in April of last year to repair a torn muscle in his shoulder and was released by the Braves last May. That is of course a major injury for a pitcher, and Blair continues to rehab though he apparently hasn’t ruled out a comeback. He turned 27 years old last month.
Q: How many of this year’s draft picks makes our top 30 prospects… and who? – Also C. McLemore
I haven’t really given a lot of thought to that yet, especially since the Carter Stewart debacle from last year has given me an appreciation for the wisdom of waiting until the players sign on the dotted line before starting to place them on lists. In general though, I would expect Langeliers would make my Top 10 somewhere, with Shewmake, Philip, and maybe some of the prep selections sprinkled in the Top 30. But really, I think I’ll just wait until they sign.
Q: Is Drew Waters ready? – P. Parsons
For the majors? No. His AA performance has been outstanding, but he’s still got some rough edges to his game that would likely be exposed in the majors, namely his over-aggressiveness at the plate and on the basepaths. Controlled aggressiveness is something to encourage, but Waters sometimes allows the game to get away from him.
I do expect him to get some time at AAA before the end of the season however and be poised to make his major league debut in 2020. You didn’t ask, but I think Pache will make his major league debut this September; he will need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason anyway. Waters will not.
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