6-3, 170 lbs
Salary: minor league contract
Team Control: through 2022 (MiLB) / 6 seasons of MLB service
Acquired: 2016 Draft, 3rd overall
Combined WAR: (no MLB debut)
The Outfield Fly Ruling
The 3rd overall pick in the 2016 draft out of New York’s Shenendehowa HS, Ian Anderson was selected as a bargain. By agreeing to an under-slot deal with Atlanta before the draft, Anderson’s selection allowed Atlanta to go over-slot on multiple later picks. However, don’t mistake that as suggesting Anderson wasn’t an elite prospect of his own. Most draft services may not have had Anderson as high as the top 3, but almost all considered him at worst a top 20 prospect, with several placing him into the top 10. They saw a tall, hard-throwing righty with big upside and multiple plus pitches. It’s still very early in the development process, and plenty can go wrong with pitchers, but until it does, be realistically optimistic. In Anderson’s case, that means a prospect with the upside of a low end #1 starter or a high #2, and yet another excellent addition to Atlanta’s cadre of high-upside pitching prospects. (-B. Blackwell, ’16 season)
The OFR Scouting Report
Stamina – 30 ↑↑↑↑↑↑↑↑
Scouts consider Anderson’s 6-3, 170 lb frame to be “projectable”, meaning the they think he’ll fill out and carry the bulk that will allow him to be a durable, inning-eating major league starter. He may not get to that point overnight, but don’t be pessimistic about his chances of getting there eventually. I think there’s maybe even an outside shot at a 70 grade down the road.
Walk Avoidance – 40 ↑↑
Pay more attention to the arrow than the number grade. Anderson is just out of high school, so it’s not a surprise or a bad omen that he’s issuing some walks in his brief time in pro ball. Eventually, scouts think Anderson could have a reliably above average ability to avoid walks. Projection systems aren’t quite so sure, but he should be near average either way.
Strikeout Ability – 45 ↑↑↑↑
As with most first round high school arms, the stuff has a good chance to be very good. He sits in the low 90’s but has been known to touch as high as 97. His changeup is very good, even pretty advanced for his age. He throws a breaking ball that is not yet on either end of the Slider-Curveball spectrum. He doesn’t yet maximize this stuff into functional results in the form of a ton of strikeouts (hence the below average current rating), but it won’t be surprising if he does down the road. If he struck out over a batter an inning at some point, it wouldn’t be a massive surprise.
Groundball Induction – n/a
Flute Solos – 80
20-80 scale, where 20 will prevent you from reaching the bigs, 30 is terrible, 40 is below average, 50 is MLB average, 60 is plus, 70 is plus-plus, and 80 is HOF-level. The OFR Scouting Report is based mostly on statistical forecasting models such as ZiPs, PECOTA, etc. Arrows indicate projected room for growth or decline, with each representing a 5 point movement on the 20-80 scale.