Much will be written today about Todd Gurley and UGA’s rushing attack from Saturday. For good reason – Gurley is an early Heisman favorite coming off a brilliant first game, and UGA’s rushing attack managed to pummel Clemson into submission during the second half as the Dawgs ran away with the blowout victory.
I decided to take a play-by-play look at UGA’s rushing attack versus Clemson in the context of situation. As we all know, not all 3 yard runs are the same; a 3 yard run on 3rd & 10 does little to help. A 3 yard run on 3rd & 1, however, extends a drive and gives an offense 3 more chances to find the endzone.
So we’ll be looking at Success Rate, a statistic conceived years ago by Football Outsiders that I’ve been a big fan of. Success Rate is kind of rudimentary, but it does provide some contextual detail. Here’s how it works – it looks at “Needed Yards”, or how many yards the team needed on each play to earn a first down. On 1st down, a play was deemed successful if it gained 40% of the Needed Yards. On 2nd down, a 60% threshold was required. On 3rd & 4th down, 100% was needed.
With those parameters, here’s how UGA’s rushing attack fared against Clemson:
Situation | Plays | Yards | Success Totals | Success % |
---|---|---|---|---|
1st Down | 15 | 169 | 8/15 | 53.3 |
2nd Down | 13 | 100 | 7/13 | 53.8 |
3rd Down | 7 | 49 | 3/7 | 42.9 |
4th Down | 1 | 4 | 1/1 | 100.0 |
Total | 36 | 322 | 19/36 | 52.8 |
Todd Gurley | 15 | 198 | 9/15 | 60.0 |
Sony Michel | 6 | 33 | 3/6 | 50.0 |
Keith Marshall | 6 | 8 | 1/6 | 16.7 |
Nick Chubb | 5 | 68 | 2/5 | 40.0 |
Quayvon Hicks | 2 | 14 | 2/2 | 100.0 |
Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 9 | 1/1 | 100.0 |
Hutson Mason | 1 | 2 | 1/1 | 100.0 |
Those numbers are really strong. Whether that tells us more about UGA’s game planning and rushing attack or Clemson’s run defense, we really don’t know yet.
But Georgia had a 52.8% success rate when running the football, which is pretty great. If the Dawgs can keep this up week-to-week, it really won’t matter how well Hutson Mason takes to his starting QB job.
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