Question 3
The Braves have a lot of veterans, but the future of this team is found in the farm system. Using Andy Harris’s recently finished Top 30 Prospects, what prospect not ranked in his Top 15 will have the biggest impact on the 2017 Atlanta Braves? You can use prospects not in Andy’s Top 30 as well.
Brent Blackwell: I’m going with lefty reliever A.J. Minter, Andy’s #18 prospect. Minter may only have 34.2 professional innings under his belt, but he’s given up just 29 baserunners and 5 runs in that timeframe, striking out 47 batters. He’s 23 and played in the SEC, so there’s a history of high level competition that makes his lack of pro experience significantly less troubling. The thing working most in his favor is that he’s a lefty, and this organization is so hard up for southpaw relievers, it signed Eric O’Flaherty to a minor league deal. Minter isn’t using smoke & mirrors – his results are a result of having good stuff and knowing how to use it. That will carry you quickly through a system if you’re a reliever. I don’t merely expect Minter to be a part of the 2017 bullpen at some point. I expect him to be an electric relief star in the making, whenever Atlanta calls him up.
Andy Harris: Minter is a good choice, and certainly the rumblings out of the front office show that he’s very much on the organization’s RADAR.
However, I think 2017 will finally be the year that Lucas Sims debuts in Atlanta. Because he’s a local kid and he was drafted out of high school, it seems like he’s been in the farm forever, but he’s actually younger than Minter and his stuff is just as good. The Braves will start him off in AAA Gwinnett, but he’ll be up and with his fastball/curveball combination that’s as good as anyone in the system, he could provide a jolt to either the rotation or the bullpen.
Chris Jervis: This is some BS. I demand a recount. #MakeTheBravesGreatAgain.
I have more respect now for the positions taken in previous rounds. This going third thing is tough. It’s much harder to come up with ideas that haven’t been previously used and that can be reasonably defended. Kudos to the other guys for jobs well done. I still want my recount, though.
Looking over that list of Top 30 Prospects that Andy reviewed (in a sidebar near you), I see that most of the guys beyond #15 are going to be at Rome or A+ affiliate Florida, meaning the likelihood of having a significant impact on the 2017 team is pretty low, unless they are part of a trade. I was left with trying to see which player not on that list might impact the team.
My initial response was going to be Mel Rojas, Jr. If the team does as many expect and starts Mallex Smith in Gwinnett, then there will be no true CF option backing up Ender Inciarte. Sure, Jace Peterson or Chase D’Arnaud or even Sean Rodriguez could cover CF for an inning or two. But they aren’t really viable options. Rojas on the bench in Atlanta provides the team a viable reserve option at each OF spot, while also providing some speed and PR options. But is the 26-year old Rojas still considered a prospect? He’s older than some of those typically considered prospects, but he also wasn’t drafted until he was 20.
Ultimately, I figured many may not consider Rojas a prospect. So, given that, I’m going to say that the prospect not on Andy’s list who has the biggest impact on the 2017 Braves will be RHP Caleb Dirks. Dirks, a reliever, posted a 1.18 ERA (2.57 FIP) in 61 innings at AA last year, for two different affiliates (he was traded, along with Philip Pfeiffer, in June of last year in the deal that sent Bud Norris, Dian Toscano, and a PTBNL {Alec Grosser} to the Dodgers). Dirks is a high strikeout pitcher, with a career 10.5 K/9. In 143 innings of minor league pitching, Dirks has a minuscule 1.32 ERA (2.57 FIP), and he has shown the ability to limit the long ball, having only allowed 3 HR in 143 IP. His FIP has been 3.26 or lower in 7 of his 8 stops in the minors, and below 2.35 in 5 of the stops. He has added a changeup to offset his fastball/slider combo, and his deceptive delivery poses timing problems for hitters.
He’s not getting a lot of recognition because he’s a minor league reliever and he doesn’t throw 117 MPH, but he’s been effective at every stop he’s made. Better than effective…he’s been good at every stop. He’ll start the season at Gwinnett, but given how bullpens morph over a season, the Braves young arms, and Brian Snitker’s history of usage, I fully expect to see Caleb Dirks as a contributing member of this team in 2017, possibly before the All-Star break. I don’t believe he’ll be a closer or high-leverage guy, but I do think he could eventually be a good middle relief or 7th inning option for 2017.
Rebuttals
Brent Blackwell: I think we very well could see Dirks and Sims in Atlanta this year. And, given the volatility of relievers, either might be the best of the three. However, the most likely to make the biggest impact is the guy with the most talent and clearest path to the Atlanta bullpen, which remains A.J. Minter. I’m optimistic, like Andy, that Sims’ fastball/curve combo can serve him well as a reliever, but I’m less certain about him than I am Minter. Minter’s biggest obstacle is hoping his elbow doesn’t explode again. Sims’ is a career 6.81 DRA (deserved run average) in AAA. And, Sims is on the 40, so he wouldn’t require a DFA to bring up.. But the question asked not just who we’d see, but how important they’d be. Minter is a better bet, in my opinion, to be a difference-maker.
Dirks is a compelling choice, because, like Minter, he has been successful throughout his MiLB career. The real bugaboo for Dirks is that he’s a righty. That’s more of a mountain to climb. Mauricio Cabrera, Jose Ramirez, Armando Rivero (who the team loses if sent down), Daniel Winkler, Josh Collmenter, Arodys Vizcaino, Jim Johnson, and perhaps even folks like Aaron Blair and Matt Wisler – the bullpen is stacked with righties. And on the 40, there’s also Shae Simmons, Chaz Roe, Jason Hursh, Luke Jackson, and Akeel Morris. There’s lefty talent as well – Ian Krol, Jesse Biddle, and Paco Rodriguez will be given chances before anyone else, but the list is a lot shorter, and a lot more surmountable. It’s just much easier to see Minter working his way up this list.
Andy Harris: Well, Brent hit on exactly why I think Sims has the potential to make a bigger impact than Minter, and that’s that Sims has the advantage of being on the 40-man roster already. To have an impact, you have to play and I think Sims may have the opportunity before Minter.
Unlike Minter or Dirks, Sims also has two paths to the majors. Sims will likely start the season in Gwinnett’s rotation, along with Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, and Sean Newcomb. While it’s assumed that when that first starter gets called up from AAA it will be Wisler or Blair, but it’s not a stretch of the imagination to think Sims could outpitch them both and take that spot. And again, he’s already on the 40-man roster, which gives him an advantage over Newcomb.
I like Caleb Dirks too, he’d be on my Top 50 if I stretched it that far, but at this point it’s almost like taking a random upper-minors reliever. There’s not much separating Dirks from the likes of Akeel Morris, Brad Roney, Steve Janas, or Luke Jackson, it’s just going to be who has the hot hand at the time he’s needed. In any case, the question is about impact, and Dirks just isn’t that likely to have an impact on the Atlanta Braves in 2017, certainly not more than either Sims or Minter.
Chris Jervis: I don’t think Chaz Roe is going to block Caleb Dirks. I don’t think Chaz Roe is going to block anyone. Just a hunch.
Brent is wholly correct when he says that Minter’s path to the Braves has fewer hurdles, and that Dirks has quite a few obstacles (crowded RHP bullpen, 40-man move required, etc.). But, some of those guys on the 40-man and some of those RHP in the bullpen are worse pitchers than Dirks. And, with John Coppolella firing shots across the bow of players, effectively telling them “produce or be gone”, the obstacles in front of Dirks may clear themselves.
Minter may suffer from the idea that many managers – especially old school managers from a previous era, like Snitker – prefer experienced late inning relievers. Minter can contribute to the team without being a closer or setup man, but it’s rare that LHP are used for anything more than LOOGY, setup, or closing. I just think that, despite having a better path to the big league club, he’ll have fewer opportunities to impact it in 2017. With the way Snitker plays platoon matchups, Minter has a very good chance of pitching 19 innings in his 57 appearances. There are few chances to impact the team when you’re facing one batter per appearance.
Sims is a good choice. Of the players discussed here, one would think he’s the closest to being MLB ready. But that’s because he’s been in the Braves system since 1977. Well, it’s actually only been 5 years, but it seems so much longer. He was our #1 prospect for about 3 years running, and suddenly he’s almost 20th? In his defense, that’s a testament to how much talent the team has pumped into the minor league system over the last two years. Still, Sims may be on the bubble. Is he a starter? Is he a reliever? I think that the jury is still out on his role, if not necessarily his talent and ability, means he may have little impact on the 2017 team as a player. He can still affect it as a trade piece, but I think the team would like to give him one more full season to show what he really is as a starter. At that point, they may move him to the bullpen. They could do it sooner, but Sims would face many of the same crowded RHP bullpen obstacles that Dirks faces. And while Sims is already on the 40-man roster, one might argue that Dirks has been a better pitcher. I think because Sims’ role is unknown, the team will want to figure out what they have, limiting his chances at the big league level this year.
I’m sure the team is well aware of the performances Dirks has put up, and I would imagine that he’s an option at some point. He may not be an option to open the season with the Atlanta team, but I don’t see him spending an entire year at AAA and waiting for September if he continues pitching as he has.
Judge: My decision of the winner can be found on the final page.
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