Sunday Braves Farm Report, 4/29/2018

(OFR writers Brent Blackwell, Matt Chrietzberg, and Dylan Short also contributed to this article)

Welcome to the Braves Farm Report, where we will take a look at the Braves farm system and look at trends and players that seem interesting, and give first hand accounts of what we’re seeing down on the farm. This week we advocate for another high-profile prospect to be brought to the majors, take a look at the affiliates, and see what Dustin Peterson is doing differently from two weeks ago. Brent Blackwell then goes over the more interesting minor league transactions, and we answer questions from the mailbag.

It’s Time for Soroka

Braves fans for the large part are still reeling from the satisfaction of Ronald Acuña Jr.‘s promotion to Atlanta and his immediate impact over the last four games. He’s made a spectacular catch in the field, hit a moon shot in Cincinnati, sent rockets through the infield, and ran roughshod on the bases… essentially everything predicted by pro and amateur scouts that have watched him ascend through the minor leagues in wonder.

However, this is a “what have you done for me lately” game, and fans will now look for what else the farm system produces that can help the Braves in this somewhat unexpectedly productive 2018 season. The answer is right-handed pitcher Mike Soroka.

Soroka was the #2 prospect in the Fifty Prospects in Fifty Days series this offseason after Ronald Acuña, so it may seem that we’re just running down the list. That’s really not the case however. Soroka right now is likely one of the top 5 starting pitchers in the organization, possibly top 3. At the age of only 20 years old, he is perplexing seasoned AAA batters. His last start in Rochester has been the best of the season to date, going 7 innings without allowing a run and dropping his season ERA after four starts to 1.99 (Soroka makes his fifth start this afternoon at Gwinnett’s CoolRay Field, so I apologize in advance for jinxing it for him).

Sixteen days ago I opined that it was time to call up Ronald Acuña, despite his slow start in Gwinnett, because he had earned the shot already and because he was better than most of the other outfielders in the majors at that time. Of all of the young pitchers in spring training camp, Soroka looked the best. He pitched effectively in AA as a 19 year old. He has pitched effectively to start his AAA career as a 20 year old. He talks about pitching like a 12-year veteran. It’s time for Soroka to test his mettle against the best hitters in the world.

(Ed. Update: within minutes of this post going live, Mike Soroka was scratched from his planned Sunday start for Gwinnett. No medical reason was given.)

Life on the Farm

ROME: Rome went 4-2 on the week, mostly thanks to a favorite punching bag, the West Virginia Power. This raised the team record to 13-9 on the season, good for second place and three games back of the resurgent  Augusta GreenJackets in the SAL Southern Division. The offense once again was paced by shortstop Riley Delgado, who hit .391/.423/.565 for the week with 6 RBI. The offense also go a shot in the arm with the promotion of catcher William Contreras, who hit .263/.300/.474 with a home run, going back-to-back on Thursday with third baseman Jean Carlos Encarnacion.

On the pitching side, Rome’s hurlers were paced by left-handed starters Kyle Muller and Bruce Zimmermann. Muller has seemingly gotten stronger with each start, this week pitching a 6-inning, 1-run, 6-strikeout masterpiece. Zimmerman followed with 6 innings of his own, denying West Virginia any runs and striking out 8. Right-hander Alan Rangel also came off the disabled list this week and delivered a 4 shutout innings, striking out 8.

FLORIDA: 

The quest for the advanced-A Florida Fire Frogs to not be the weak sister of the Braves affiliates hit a snag this week as the team went 1-6 on the week to drop their overall record to 7-16.

What can be said about Bryse Wilson at this point? The right-handed pitcher with the linebacker’s body still hasn’t allowed an earned run in four starts, this week leading the Frogs to their only win of the week with 6.2 innings of 3-hit ball. The rest of the Frogs starters were varying degrees of horrible. Even the usually reliable Joey Wentz allowed 3 runs in a hard-fought 4.1 innings against Daytona.

A bright spot in the bullpen has been lefty Justin Kelly. Acquired from the Angels for Jim Johnson, Kelly had two scoreless outings this week, and has allowed only two earned runs this season in four appearances after being placed on the Disabled List shortly after opening day. This week Kelly struck out 7 batters in three innings pitched, only allowing two baserunners on a walk and a HBP.

Other than Wilson’s continued excellence and the emergence of Kelly in the bullpen, the most exciting development this week was the breakout of outfielder Cristian Pache. After a few weeks of adjusting to FSL pitching, Pache hit .393/.400/.536 for the week, including his first official professional home run. Catcher Brett Cumberland continued his good work, hitting .318/.423/.682, including his 4th home run of the season and third HBP.

MISSISSIPPI:  The M-Braves keep plodding along with another 3-4 week, although they’ve won two in a row after returning from a road trip to Mobile.  The pitching was a mixed bag this week with Kyle Wright having a sub-par start, allowing eight hits and six runs in 4.2 innings, and Josh Graham, who was scored upon in each of his three relief appearances for the week.  On the positive side, Touki Toussaint had one decent (5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 6 K) and one tremendous (7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K) start.  Jacob Webb saved all three wins with 2.1 perfect innings and four strikeouts.

On offense, a Mississippi hitter had a .444/.464/.519 line this past week.  No, it wasn’t Austin Riley.  It was, surprisingly, outfielder Tyler Neslony.  Although 11 of his 12 hits were singles, he still had six RBI on the week.  Travis Demeritte also had a good week with two doubles, a home run and a .318/.348/.545 line.  After a torrid start, Riley seems to be cooling off.  He only had four hits this week en route to a .148/.207/.333 line.

On a side note, Tyler Flowers made a rehab appearance in Pearl on Thursday night, going 1-for-4.  The lone hit was an infield single, he then went from first to third on a Neslony single and scored on an error on a pickoff attempt.  The appearance went well enough that Flowers was activated from the disabled list the following day.       

GWINNETT: Gwinnett ran into the buzzsaw that is the Durham Bulls this week, and will look to Mike Soroka today to avoid a three-game sweep. Combined with a spit in a 4-game series at Rochester, Gwinnett only went 2-5 on the week, dropping them to 7-13 on the season. That places them last in the International League South Division, but still only 4.5 games in the division.

The biggest news of the week was of course the promotion of outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. mid-week, but he parted the Stripers on a high note, hitting .400 over four games. But Acuña wasn’t the only outfielder heating up; after starting the season hitless for four games, Peterson has hit .364 since. This week the power stroke has come back, and Peterson launched two bombs to go with his other 7 hits on the week. Stripers catchers Rob Brantly and Chris Stewart were uncharacteristically productive at the plate this week; the two veterans hit a combined .300/.333/.400.

Third baseman Jose Bautista however had a forgettable first week with Gwinnett. Bautista has yet to have an extra base hit to date, and is hitting .143. On the positive side, his work at third base has been surprisingly good.

As mentioned in the feature section, Mike Soroka looked fantastic in his start last week in Rochester, throwing a 7-inning complete game shutout. Relievers Evan Phillips, Chase Whitley, Elian Leyva, and Jon Kennedy all also went unscored upon. Left-hander Kolby Allard put together his strongest start of the young season with 6.1 scoreless innings on Saturday night and striking out 5.

POSITION PLAYER of the WEEK:

PITCHER of the WEEK:

Prospect Spotlight: Dustin Peterson

In the very first Farm Report two weeks ago, we noted that Gwinnett outfielder Dustin Peterson was off to a slow start. We even provided some swing analysis and a demonstrative .gif:

He’s not staying compact at all. His backside is the first thing to move every time, and then he steps out with his back leg to boot, which ruins his base. I dont recall seeing him do that this spring, maybe he just wasn’t picking up the ball comfortably.

-Dylan Short, two weeks ago

Well, Peterson has rebounded in a big way since then. Does he looking differently at the plate? Here are his swings from Wednesday, April 25. Peterson went 3-for-5 on the day with a double and a home run. Rochester’s starting pitcher came out of the game in the second inning with an injury, so he actually faces four different pitchers in this game.

Swing 1: Peterson stayed back on a mediocre curveball and did what you’re supposed to do with it, pulling it hard for a base hit. He back leg stays planted, and while his front side fires off a little soon, his hands catch up enough to hit the ball squarely.

Swing 2: A fastball that gets too much of the plate, and Peterson puts a fairly effortless stroke on it and pokes it out for an opposite field home run. Peterson again stayed back on it well, it’s clear he’s seeing the ball. This is the kind of power he absolutely did not have last year recovering from his hamate bone injury.

Swing 3: Very similar to the home run swing, but the pitcher gets the ball further down. Peterson again stays back and goes down to get it and hammer it opposite field for a double. In many ways, this is a more impressive swing than the home run cut.

Swing 4: A hanging change-up that the pitcher was very lucky to get away with. Peterson gets it off the end of the bat for a pop-up down the line.

Swing 5: The only foul ball hit by Peterson on the afternoon, he was a little late on the fastball.

Swing 6: The pitcher tries the fastball again and actually puts it in a better spot, but Peterson is all over it and hits a hard liner to left center than it caught. Probably the hardest hit ball of the day for Peterson, but the baseball gods are fickle creatures.

I asked Dylan Short to take a look:

Very quick load, doesn’t fly open during the swing. Very efficient swing, no over-swing at all. Stays smooth all the way through.

Peterson had a lost season in 2017 after breaking his hamate bone in spring training. It is looking like he is rebounding nicely. Peterson came in at #18 in the Fifty Prospects in Fifty Days series, and my conclusion there that “his floor is as an offensive-first 4th outfielder, but could be a strong complimentary outfield starter if he hits his ceiling” still feels right. He’s with a group of outfielders along with Danny Santana, Ezequiel Carrera, and Jaff Decker that would all require being added to the 40-man roster to be recalled to Atlanta if they want to bring any one of them up. As the only prospect in that group, Peterson seems unlikely to be called up for something like a short-term fill-in for an injury. I think there are three avenues to Peterson being called up in 2018:

1. Long-term injury to an Atlanta starting outfielder.
2. A mid-season trade of Nick Markakis.
3. Failure of Jose Bautista and Ryan Flaherty to hold down third base, forcing the long-term use of Johan Camargo. The bench would then need a right-handed bat, a position that Peterson could fill. I would only count this as a plausible scenario late in the season, and if the team is still in contention.

Transaction Round-Up with Brent Blackwell

4/23/2018: C William Contreras promoted to A Rome

After a .290/.379/.432 campaign at Danville last year, we expected to see Contreras debuting in the South Atlantic League this year. In his first 5 games, he has reached base 6 times, including a home run. Rome can be tough on slugging percentages. Contreras’ impressive .474 mark so far indicates an unwillingness, when in Rome, to do as the Romans do.

4/25/2018: LHP Rex Brothers recalled from AAA Gwinnett (not to report); outrighted to Gwinnett

Brothers was removed from the 40 man roster, but he remains in the organization. If you hate contact, you’ve probably loved Brothers’ appearances so far for the Stripers. In 5.2 innings, he has a combined 22 strikeouts and walks.

4/25/2018: LHP Jon Kennedy promoted from A+ Florida to AAA Gwinnett
4/27/2018: LHP Jon Kennedy sent from AAA Gwinnett to A+ Florida

Kennedy came up, pitched 2.2 innings of scoreless ball for the Stripers, and then was returned to A+ Florida on Friday. Three of Gwinnett’s pitchers that night had already made their MLB debuts, yet Kennedy was the only Striper to not allow a run.

4/26/2018: RHP Jasseel De La Cruz placed on Rome 7-day Disabled List

You really hate to see this, as De La Cruz has been kind of brilliant so far. In 4 starts, over 17.2 innings, Jasseel has 20 strikeouts to just 5 walks, and he’s sporting a 2.04 ERA. Minor league DL trips are frustratingly vague, so we won’t speculate on its nature. But any injury is a disappointing one for a prospect whose recent performances were starting to catch some eyes.

4/26/2018: OF Jared James placed on Florida 7-day Disabled List
4/26/2018: OF Raysheandall Michel promoted to A+ Florida from extended spring training

James can’t seem to catch a break. After a solid .279/.352/.415 year in AA Mississippi last year, the 24 year old opened up this season… at high-A? He accepted the backtracking, and proceeded to mash over his first 18 games to the tune of .318/.370/.545. Like with De La Cruz, I won’t speculate on the nature of the injury. Here’s wishing for James to return to health as soon as possible and get back to trying to impress an organization that’s playing hard-to-get.

He’ll be replaced by Michel, who is 4 years James’ junior. The Curacao native has spent 3 seasons working through Rookie ball, so it’s interesting and aggressive to move him directly to advanced A-ball. He did hit .312/.365/.403 last year as a 19 year old, though, so perhaps he can handle it. Or you may see him head to Rome when James is healthy again.

4/27/2018: LHP Luiz Gohara activated from the 10-day DL, optioned to AAA Gwinnett.

Gohara still looks fairly rusty after missing nearly all of spring training with a series of ailments. Gohara will be looking for a string of good outings to get back into the starting rotation pitcher, but after being considered a favorite for the job in the offseason, Gohara now has the likes of Anibal Sanchez, Mike Soroka, and even a resurgent Matt Wisler to contend with.

Mailbag Q&A

Thanks to members of the Outfield Fly Rule and Braves Country Facebook groups for questions!

Q: Touki Toussaint and his spectacular curveball, what’s his status? – S. Roper

A: Toussaint had his best start of the season last night, throwing 7 shutout innings, allowing only 3 hits and striking out 7, and doing all of that in only 87 pitches.

…

Whew, excuse me, I was feeling light-headed. Most importantly he didn’t allow a single base on balls. I haven’t seen any of this start yet, but I did watch the previous one last Monday, where he walked five batters in five innings. Toussaint is getting significant arm-side run on his fastball these days, a welcome development to be sure. On Monday, that movement took his fastball off the plate, and Mobile hitters were doing a good job laying off the pitch; I’m not sure what they would have done with it if they had swung at it. Probably miss or ground out to third.

His “spectacular curveball” also seems to have gotten a tighter spin on it, which is good because those big lollipop 12-6 curves can get hammered in the big leagues if they aren’t placed perfectly (just as Max Fried). With tighter spin comes new challenges to command it. So I would say his status is “still developing, but signs pointing way up”.

Q: Who does Touki Toussaint remind you of? – J. Robertson

A: My current comp for Toussaint is Trevor Bauer.

Q: Am I the only one who sees a bit of a right-handed Luis Avilan in Odalvi Javier? – T. Poe

Yes, yes you are. Seriously, who ever compares anyone to Luis Avilan? Odalvi Javier is a bulldog.

Q: Aside from injuries, what has caused Soroka to progress farther than Allard? – T. Childers

A: First, considering he’s a 20 year old in AAA with a 2.57 ERA one season after pitching to a 3.18 ERA in AA as a 19 year old, nobody should have any concerns about the speed of Allard’s progress. The main difference between the two pitchers is that Soroka’s command of all of his pitches is ridiculously good, while Allard has issues last season with command of his curveball, which had been his bread-and-butter pitch. What I’ve seen from Allard so far this season has been very encouraging however. His command has been good, and the change-up which really developed well last season is deadly. Allard incorporates a lot of deception in his delivery, giving the hitters lots of different looks and he isn’t afraid to challenge hitters. His fastball command his been sharp to date as well.

Q: Jean Carlos Encarnacion: in your opinion is he a future major league player for the Braves? When do you think Austin Riley will debut and what are your expectations? Is Soraka as good as I think he is? What major league player would you compare him to?

1. Too early to say, but he’s got great tools. Improving pitch recognition will likely be the deciding factor on how far he advances.
2. If he continues to hit well in AA, he should move up to AAA Gwinnett by the end of May. Then it’s just a matter of if the Braves think he can help the big league team this season or not. At the latest, I think he’ll be called up in September and be given long consideration to start the season with Atlanta in 2019. My expectations is that he will be at least a league-average defender at third base and be a strong run-producer in the middle of the line-up.
3. I don’t know how good you think Soroka is, but I think he’s the bee’s knees. My comp current for Soroka is Jacob deGrom, but don’t tell anybody that.

Q: I don’t know if Izzy Wilson from Rome is a long term outfielder or Drew Waters. Who ya got long term?

A: It’s a long way from Rome to Atlanta. Both are good athletes with the ingredients to be successful, but both also have large areas of their games that require development before they could really be considered a long-term anything. Also, you didn’t mention Jefrey Ramos, who doesn’t have the defensive tools that either Waters or Wilson have, but may have the best hit tool of the three of them. I think this is something that you just have to let play out.