Welcome to the Braves Farm Report, where we will take a look at the Braves farm system and look at trends and players that seem interesting, and give first hand accounts of what we’re seeing down on the farm. This week we check out six minor league relievers that have the potential to be factors in the Atlanta bullpen at some point in 2018, we shine the Prospect Spotlight on Rome third baseman Jean Carlos Encarnacion, and we have the usual weekly affiliate and transaction review.
Relief Is Just a Phone Call Away
The Braves bullpen has been largely excellent this season, especially in the month of May. But performances fluctuate and injuries will always happen. Fellow OFR contributor Matt Chrietzberg and I survey the upper minors to find three relievers apiece and evaluate their potential to be contributors in the major league bullpen at some point in 2018.
Matt: Of the relievers I have chosen, the one that is closest to being ready for MLB and has the biggest upside, is right-hander Evan Phillips. Phillips, a 23 year old 2015 17th-round draft pick, split time between AA/AAA in 2017 and produced poor numbers (6.14 ERA, 1.675 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9) primarily due to control issues. The Braves saw his potential, though, if he could work through these issues. Phillips has done just that this season, reducing the walk rate to 3.2 BB/9 with only one walk in his last 15.2 IP. At the same time, he has increased his strikeout rate from 9.2 to 12.9 K/9. Phillips’ WHIP is down to 1.030 and has raised his ground ball percentage from under 45% to over 50%. Furthermore, he has pitched in fourteen games this season with nine being multi-inning appearances and seven being at least two innings. This skill set could lead to an opportunity in the near future with the big club and, if the control issues stay under wraps, he could be a big contributor sooner rather than later.
Andy: Well that was going to be my first choice as well, so I will go to the guy I have second on my list, Mississippi closer Jacob Webb. Webb missed all of the 2015 season recovering from TJS, but he announced his return with authority in 2016 by striking out 31 batters in only 13 innings pitched between Rome and Danville. Webb faced more adversity last season pitching at both advanced-A Florida and AA Mississippi, keeping the gaudy strikeout numbers but also walking an unsightly 5 batters per 9 innings. Webb’s stuff has never been in question, featuring a mid-90s fastball with good movement that can top out at 99 and a tightly-spun curveball that generates swing-and-miss. The problem is that too often Webb would lose his release point and he’d go through stretches of not being able to find his spots. There’s been some improvement in this area, but Webb’s main defense against getting damaged by walks seems to be just not allowing hits, and he’s only allowed a .175 batting average against him this season.
Matt: My second reliever is right-hander Josh Ravin. Although not a prospect at 30 years old, he has put in some good work at Gwinnett this season and is rapidly putting himself in position to earn a real opportunity (he had two brief appearances with the Braves early in the season). In eleven appearances, Ravin has not allowed any earned runs in eleven innings of work. He is striking out 15.6 batters per nine innings and has a WHIP of an even 1.000. On the negative side of the ledger, Ravin is walking 5.7 BB/9, has mostly been limited to single-inning work and has to be put on the 40-man roster with no options remaining if he is called up.
Andy: My next choice is someone I never expected to be talking about, someone I had kind of written him off after a disastrous 2017 campaign that saw him go backward from Mississippi back to Florida with his performance also going the wrong direction. This is a lesson to me to never write off someone with youth and good stuff. Chad Sobotka has both, and the 2014 4th-rounder has put himself back on the map after lowering his walk rate by almost 4% and upping his strikeout rate by a whopping 15%. While it’s unlikely those trends will continue against tougher competition now that he’s been promoted back to Mississippi, like Jacob Webb he can mitigate any future damage by just limiting the amount of good contact against him. Sobotka will turn 25 in a couple of months, and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that the Braves could want to give him a look in the majors when the rosters expand in September.
Matt: My final potential reliever, and a real wild-card, is Touki Toussaint. Touki is a 21 year old right-hander who was famously “purchased” from the Diamondbacks for current Gwinnett Striper Phil Gosselin and the money remaining on Bronson Arroyo‘s contract. Toussaint has had a good season at Mississippi with a 3.65 ERA while striking out 11.4 hitters per nine innings and tossing a couple of dominating starts. He still has control issues with a 4.5 BB/9 and has walked at least three batters in five of nine starts. Touki has been working exclusively out of the stretch to assist in keeping the control issues in check, which could help in a temporary transition to the bullpen. Touki’s fastball, which he tends to generally throw from 91-94. was ramped up to 98-99 in the first inning of his most recent start. He won’t be ready to start in MLB in the immediate future, but if he continues to progress, Touki could make for an explosive second-half addition to the bullpen to 1) give the pen a boost with stuff that lends well to short-term bursts and 2) help him get gradually acclimated to MLB without putting him in the rotation right off the bat.
Andy: We just can’t stop talking about Touki! I’m also going to go with a guy that’s been doing well as a starting pitcher, Gwinnett’s Wes Parsons. Parsons was once a Top-10 organizational prospect back in the lean times of the late Wren era before having UCL replacement surgery in 2014. By the time he came back, the rebuild was underway and he was buried under an avalanche of higher-ceiling talent. Parsons has progressed steadily however, starting and relieving as team needs required. Parsons started 7 games for Mississippi this year and was the top performer in the rotation before getting his second crack at AAA last week.
Prospect Spotlight: JC Encarnacion
One of the more intriguing position player prospects in the lower minor leagues is Rome third baseman Jean Carlos “JC” Encarnacion. He split last season between the GCL and Danville Braves after impressing in the Dominican Summer League in 2016, signing from a low bonus right at the tail end of the 2015/16 signing period. Encarnacion has been worked at shortstop and first base in the rookie leagues, but has settled in at the hot corner since his Danville promotion last July 31.
I had the opportunity to see Encarnacion in action in both the GCL and with Danville last season, and on the strength of his tools I had placed him at #27 in the Fifty Prospects in Fifty Days series this offseason. Encarnacion demonstrated really good bat control despite kind of a long, loopy swing and rarely seeing a pitch he didn’t want to take a swing at. At third he showed some stiffness but made good decisions and showed a strong and accurate arm.
This season so far in Rome he’s off to a .304/.333/.428 start, including currently riding a 15-game hitting streak where he’s hitting .390/.410/.559 with 2 home runs. Here’s what Encarnacion looked like on Opening Day, where he went 2-for-4 with a double.
The results of these swings were:
1. Groundball to third, infield single.
2. Groundball to third, fielder’s choice.
3. Foul ball.
4. Foul ball.
5. Groundball inside the bag at first, stretch double.
6. Pop-out to first base.
Encarnacion still exhibits the loopy swing from rookie ball, but he’s demonstratively stronger and can pull or go the other way with some bat speed. However, he’s swinging at pitchers’ pitches and putting the ball on the ground. The infield single and the double show Encarnacion does have some speed.
Let’s compare that to Encarnacion from this week, Thursday May 17.
The first thing thing that pops out is that Encarnacion starts out much more open than seven weeks ago, getting two eyes on the ball. The result of this is that Encarnacion is seeing more pitches per plate appearance, increasing his selectiveness. While this hasn’t manifested in more walks, he’s also not getting fooled on as many pitches.
He closes up when the pitch is delivered but does a nice job keeping his head steady. He also has slightly lowered his hands in an effort to get more elevation on the ball. Even so, he was able to go down in the zone to knock a pitch back up the middle for a clean single in his first at bat. His second at-bat he swings at a pitch out and away from him, but like on Opening Day he has the wheels to beat the throw for another single.
His third at-bat was over so quickly, the program barely had time to return from break. Encarnacion goes down to gets hold of a fastball coming inside. His back is quick enough to get all of it, pulling it and sending it over the fence. This is exactly the kind of pitch his updated hitting profile is designed to attack. His 4th at-bat it notable for his getting fooled on a change-up for strike one. He later sends an outside fastball to second base for his only out of the game.
Life on the Farm
ROME: The R-Braves continued their winning ways last week, going 5-1 and remaining just a half game behind Augusta. In addition to Encarnacion hitting the ball often and with purpose, the offense has been boosted by a resurgent Drew Waters, who has batted .333/.412/.800 with two home runs on the week, though he also missed two games still bothered by an injury that put him on the DL earlier in the month. Catcher William Contreras has also kept up his hot hitting in May. After starting the season in extended spring training and getting off to a slow start, Contreras his now hitting .306/.377/.419 in May.
Another player who started slowly and seems to be righting the ship is left-hander Drew Harrington, who had two solid, albeit short, starting assignments this week. Likewise, righty Huescar Ynoa has reeled off two consecutive quality starts, only allowing four baserunners and one run in 6 innings against Hickory. Lefty Bruce Zimmermann continues to dominate the South Atlantic, this week pitching 7 shutout innings and striking out 9 Asheville Tourists, lowering his season ERA to 2.38. Rome’s bullpen continues to pitch well, this week only allowing 4 runs in 22 combined innings.
FLORIDA: The Fire Frogs were doused most of the week by the Florida weather, with five games either postponed, suspended, or cancelled. The Frogs did get in three games, going 2-1 on the week. Lefty Kyle Muller battled through a 4.2 inning, 2 run outing where his command deserted him. Left-hander Tucker Davidson however had his best start of the season, limiting Clearwater to two hits and zero runs in 6 innings. Righty Ian Anderson also managed a scoreless outing, striking out 7 on Saturday in 5.2 innings before the rain fell and forced a suspension. The Fire Frogs bullpen was brilliant in the limited work, not allowing a single earned run in 6.1 innings.
Gary Schwartz lead the Frogs with four hits in the three complete and one partial game. Whatever hope that former first-round pick Braxton Davidson will ever become a big league contributor get more minute the longer his third advanced-A season goes, and he’s now hitting .128/.220/.264 this year. The promotion of Rome first baseman Kurt Hoesktra to Florida could signal a loss of playing time as well.
MISSISSIPPI: The M-Braves once again went 3-4 this week, this time playing all of their games on the road on a swing thru Tennessee. The pitching this week was led by Bryse Wilson, who is gradually becoming acclimated to AA. He allowed two runs over five innings while striking out two in his first start and finished up the week by allowing only one unearned run over 5.2 IP while striking out eight in his second start. Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint each had uninspiring starts this week and Touki was knocked out of his second start early due to a batted ball being hit off of his leg. Early indications are that the removal was just precautionary.
The hitters this week were led by shortstop Luis Valenzuela, who hit .355/.375/.355, and leftfielder Travis Demeritte, who had a .316/.409/.526 mark. Second baseman Alay Lago is riding a 6-game hitting streak, hitting .350/.381/.450 since Monday. Outfielder Michael Reed is finally showing some signs of slowing down with a .182/.333/.364 mark on the week, while catcher Alex Jackson continued to struggle with a ,133/.188/.200 mark. The catcher that’s caught fire at the plate is Jonathan Morales, who hit .385/.429/.846 with four doubles, good timing as Morales was promoted to Gwinnett to fill in for the injured Rob Brantly.
GWINNETT: The Stripers went 3-3 on the week, with two games getting disrupted by the Braves calling up that day’s scheduled starting pitcher. But the story of this week is third baseman Austin Riley, who after five days of getting acclimated to AAA pitching went OFF on Sunday May 13, going 4-for-5 with 3 home runs including a grand slam to lead the team in a 10-0 smiting of Norfolk. For the week, Riley hit .360/.393/.720 and is currently riding a modest three-game hitting streak. The Stripers have also gotten a strong contribution from outfielder Peter Bourjos since his exile from Atlanta, and he hit .385/.429/.654 this week. First baseman Carlos Franco slugged two more homers and is now second in the International League in home runs and first in RBI.
Left-hander Kolby Allard was a workhorse for Gwinnett this week. Allard was the beneficiary of Riley’s offensive eruption against Norfolk, though he didn’t need that much as he sailed through 8 shutout innings, striking out 8 and walking 1. His command wasn’t quite as sharp on Saturday, but he battled through 7 innings, allowing 8 hits and 3 runs before having to leave the game in the 8th inning after an infield collision with first baseman Rio Riuz; the injury isn’t believed to be serious. Last-minute promotions for Max Fried and Matt Wisler forced relievers Miguel Socolovich and Jon Kennedy to start. Socolovich’s outing went remarkably well, as he combined with Luke Jackson, Evan Phillips, and Jason Hursh for a two-hit shutout of Columbus.
POSITION PLAYER of the WEEK:
PITCHER of the WEEK:
Transaction Round-Up
5/14/2018: RHP Walner Polonco promoted to the GCL Braves from the DSL Braves
5/14/2018: RHP MIguel Pena promoted to the GCL Braves from the DSL Braves
The Dominican Summer League cranks up in two weeks, so expect a slew of assignments to the team. While the team did not sign any high-profile Latin American amateurs due to being capped at offering a bonus of $300,000 to individual players, the Braves still kept busy signing by my count 22 players. Polonco and Pena move up a rung in the ladder to make room.
5/14/2018: OF Jared James activated from the 7-day DL
5/14/2018: OF Shean Michel transferred to Danville
James had been out two and a half weeks with an undisclosed injury. The 34th-rounder out of Long Beach State had gotten off to a hot start with the Fire Frogs, and probably is playing a level under his capabilities. Michel is a young, toolsy player who was overmatched filling in at the advanced-A level, but probably deserves a shot to stick in Rome.
5/15/2018: RHP Chad Sobotka promoted to Mississippi from Florida
5/15/2018: RHP Devan Watts transferred to Florida from Mississippi
The two hard-throwing righties essentially exchange places. Watts has had unaccustomed control issues while Sobotka will try to stick AA-ball in his third try at the level after striking out 28 advanced-A batters in only 20.1 innings.
5/15/2018: LHP Chad Bell claimed off waivers from Detroit Tigers; optioned to Gwinnett
Bell is a 29-year-old former Rangers prospect who has bounced around AAA since 2014 following Tommy John surgery. His value is that he can start or relieve, which is handy considering how frequently the Braves have used the “Gwinnett shuttle” this year.
5/15/2018: Signed IF Marcos Almonte to a minor league contract; assigned to Danville
Almonte had recently been released by the Astros organization after joining them as an Domincan amateur free agent. The 22-year-old Almonte owns a career .248/.317/.367 minor league batting line over four seasons, mostly in the rookie leagues. Almonte has experience at all three infield skill positions plus the outfield, and could be a utility player for Danville next month or for Rome in case of injury or promotion.
5/16/2018: 1B Kurt Hoekstra promoted from Rome to Florida
5/16/2018: IF Kevin Josephina transferred from Florida to Danville
5/17/2018: 1B Austin Bush promoted from Danville to Rome
Hoekstra had returned to Rome this season to once again be the primary first baseman. After a season when he stumbled at the plate and in the field, Hoekstra seemed to pack on some muscle in the offseason and has hit .255/.339/.406 with 11 extra base hits, including 2 homers. The 24-year-old will battle for time at first for Florida with the slumping Braxton Davidson. Hoesktra takes the roster spot of Josephina, who has gone from Rome’s starting second baseman in 2017 to not making an opening day roster in 2018, and he didn’t show much in his 2-week call-up to Florida.
Austin Bush gets a second shot at Rome after striking out 32% of the time in his brief time with the team in 2017 shortly after being drafted out of UC-Santa Barbara in the 15th round. Bush can launch a baseball with the best of them when he makes contact.
5/17/2018: OF Ezequiel Carrera released from Gwinnett
The former Blue Jay couldn’t get on track with the Stripers, hitting only .146/.228/.220 and losing playing time to Danny Santana, Xavier Avery, and Peter Bourjos. The 30-year-old owns a .262/.324/.365 major league batting line and will certainly get picked up by another team on a minor league deal. This marks the third veteran outfield depth player shed by the Braves since spring training, following Jaff Decker and Lane Adams.
5/18/2018: C Jonathan Morales promoted to Gwinnett
5/19/2018: C Rob Brantly placed on the 7-day DL
As mentioned in the Mississippi report, Morales has been swinging a hot bat, and he gets the call up to AAA to back-fill for the injured Brantly. Mississippi still has Alex Jackson, Tyler Marlette, and Sal Giardina as catchers on their roster.
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