Welcome to the Braves Farm Report, where we will take a look at the Braves farm system and look at trends and players that seem interesting, and give first hand accounts of what we’re seeing down on the farm. This week we take a look at the case for calling up Austin Riley to Atlanta, see what’s happened this week with the affiliates, and answer an extra-large mailbag.
This week will mark the 1/3rd mark through the minor league season; make sure you check back here at Outfield Fly Rule for the 33% Review of top prospects.
The Case For Austin Riley
In approximately a week, maybe two weeks, the Braves will no longer have a financial incentive to keep their close-to-the-majors prospects in the minor leagues. Minor leaguers called up after that time will not be eligible for so-called “Super Two” status, the quirk in the Collective Bargaining Agreement that causes some players to only have to wait two years rather than three to get into the salary arbitration system.
The two biggest prospects with the Gwinnett Stripers are left-hander Kolby Allard and third baseman Austin Riley. There’s reason to believe the 20-year-old Allard may be heading to the majors soon; he was scratched from his last start, and there’s reasonable speculation that he may be in line to get called up on Monday to pitch in one of the two games scheduled against the Mets in SunTrust Park. This may just be a spot start for Allard, but his performance has been impressive enough to think that a more permanent placement in the rotation may come sooner rather than later if an opportunity presents itself.
For Riley, the opportunity is plain. Of all of the regular positions for the Braves, third base has been the least productive for the team by fWAR, with Johan Camargo and Ryan Flaherty providing roughly equal value (0.5 fWAR each) and Jose Bautista and Charlie Culberson providing below replacement-level value (combined -0.4).
When Bautista was released by the Braves last week, general manager Alex Anthopoulos named Johan Camargo the everyday starter, and with good reason. Camargo has shown tremendous improvement in his hitting approach and currently he has a .371 OBP despite a .208 batting average. That batting average is being driven by a .250 batting average on balls in play (BABiP). A look at Statcast metrics show that Camargo has been hitting the ball fairly hard (his 91.3 mph exit velocity ranks 65th among all major leaguers with at least 25 batted balls), and indication that his bad luck on balls in play is just that… bad luck.
So if the baseball adage is true and that everything evens out over time, it should be reasonable to expect Camargo to go on a some sort of offensive tear at some point.
However… there’s also a case to be made to let the player projected to be the long-term answer to the position get his feet wet at the major league level. It’s not like Riley hasn’t earned a shot after hitting .315/.376/.583 combined over two levels so far this season. His AAA slash line after three weeks at the level is .301/.358/.452. Perhaps just as importantly is that the scouting on his defense has been overall positive. After struggling at the hot corner in 2016 with Rome, Riley has been the most improved defensive player in the Braves system, even being named the top defensive infielder in the Braves farm by Baseball America this past offseason.
The young position players on the Braves now — Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna, Dansby Swanson, Johan Camargo — have all had their highs and lows this season. This is a league of adjustments, both pitchers to them and they to what pitchers are trying to do to them. When Austin Riley comes up, he’ll go through this as well.
That said, Riley is looking more and more like the best case internal scenario for third base. He almost certainly will be able to provide at least as much value as the Braves have gotten to date. The Braves could call him up, see what he can do, and if Riley can’t keep up and the team is still in contention, the Braves would still have plenty of time to potentially trade for a stop-gap, short-term veteran. If Riley does lift the position, the Braves will be in even better shape for 2019 as they are able to confidently check off a potential position of concern.
Life on the Farm
ROME: The Braves had an uncharacteristically tough week, splitting a four-game series in Lexington and dropping the first two games at Asheville to go 2-5 on the week, with pitching being the main culprit. Right-hander Odalvi Javier was the primary exception, pitching Rome to 4-1 win over Lexington with 6 innings of one-run ball while striking out 10 and combining with relievers Kelvin Rodriguez and Brandon White on a 4-hitter.
At the plate, centerfielder Drew Waters has been putting in good work, going .357/.400/.643 on the week. Since coming off the DL in early May, Waters has hit .305/.359/.644 for Rome with 4 home runs. Shortstop Riley Delgado put in a strong performance at the plate again this week, hitting .385/.448/.423 and teaming with Waters to give Rome a strong top of the batting order. Most of the rest of the team struggled last week however, with third baseman Jean Carlos Encarnacion mired in a 2-for-22 slump.
Rome dropped to 3.5 games behind Augusta in the SAL South Division, but remain in second place.
FLORIDA: The Fire Frogs finished up perhaps the best week of the team’s short existence, going 5-1. This included a sweep of a doubleheader on Tuesday at Dunedin. Starters Tucker Davidson and Jeremy Walker each logged in solid outings and have seemingly righted their ships after a tough early going. Left-hander Kyle Muller had his best start since his promotion to Florida, pitching five shutout innings.
The Fire Frogs pounded out 10 extra base hits this week lead by outfielder Gary Schwartz and his three doubles. The former Grand Canyon University standout has hit .296/.375/.380 since his promotion to Florida on May 1. Outfielder Cristian Pache is riding a 5-game hitting streak and stole 3 bases in a contest againt the Tampa Tarpons on Saturday.
Florida’s winning surge has pushed them out of the divisional cellar, and they now sit in 4th place out of 6 in their division, 5 games behind the first place Dayton Tortugas.
MISSISSIPPI: The M-Braves put together a 3-3 week, finishing up a road trip at Tennessee before heading home for a series with the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. The pitching highlight of the week was Touki Toussaint‘s 6 IP 6 H 2 ER 0 BB 10 K performance in Thursday nigh’s contest. Toussaint is currently second in the Southern League with 66 strikeouts to Taylor Widener of Jacksonville. Organizational Swiss army knife Andres Santiago won both of his starts this week and only allowed four runs in thirteen innings with ten strikeouts.
First baseman/catcher Tyler Marlette was the hitting star of the week, going 10-for-22 with 2 HR and 6 RBI, producing a .455/.500/.773 for the week. LF Travis Demeritte continued his good work with a .278/.435/.500 week and OF Michael Reed extended his fine work from the leadoff spot, putting up a .200/.360/.450 line. C Alex Jackson continued to struggle, going 2-for-16 with seven strikeouts and generating a .125/.125/.188 line.
GWINNETT: With the big league club once again disrupting the Stripers starting rotation, the team needed help from AA Mississippi to finish 4-3 on the week. Fill-in starters Michael Mader and Enderson Franco each pitched the Stripers to a win and Wes Parsons contributed a solid outing. Veteran reliever Miguel Socolovich has been a workhorse this month; in 16 innings, he has yet to allow an earned run, including in three emergency starts. Right Evan Phillips continues to make a push for a call-up, racking up 2 saves in two scoreless outings.
On the offensive side, Danny Santana went on a power trip this week, launching four homers while playing both the outfield and second base. Outfielder Xavier Avery also had a good week, hitting .300/.391/.450 while third baseman Austin Riley hit .292/.370/.333.
POSITION PLAYER of the WEEK:
PITCHER of the WEEK:
Transaction Round-Up
5/22/2018: Signed IF Luis Marte to a minor league contract; assigned to Mississippi
5/23/2018: Released IF Cleuluis Rondon from Mississippi.
The Braves exchanged a 24-year-old light-hitting former White Sox farmhand for a 24-year-old light-hitting former Texas farmhand. Rondon had been the M-Braves primary shortstop, but after only tallying 6 total hits in the better part of a month, the organization decided to make a move. Marte isn’t much of an improvement, but he does have slightly more pop and the Braves snatch him up less than a week after his release from the AA Frisco RoughRiders of the Texas League.
5/24/2018: Activated OF Dustin Peterson from the 7-day DL (Gwinnett)
Peterson was scorching the ball before his was placed on the DL for an undisclosed reason on May 3.
5/24/2018: Activated RHP David Peterson from the Temporary Inactive List (Gwinnett)
5/24/2018: Placed RHP Chase Whitley on the 7-Day DL (Gwinnett)
Whitley was activated from the DL on May 20 and appeared in only two games before having to go back on it. Peterson has been a solid organizational reliever but has yet to find sustained success at the AAA level.
5/24/2018: Transferred RHP Wes Parsons from Gwinnett to Mississippi
5/24/2018: Promoted LHP Michael Mader from Mississippi to Gwinnett
5/26/2018: Transferred LHP Michael Mader from Gwinnett to Mississippi
5/26/2018: Promoted RHP Enderson Franco from Mississippi to Gwinnett
Parsons made two solid if unremarkable starts for Gwinnett after his promotion from Mississippi, where he had been the M-Braves most effective starter. My guess is that this may be a paper move to open a spot for Mader, who made an emergency start in place of Kolby Allard who was a last-minute scratch. This was Mader’s first taste of AAA after spending part of 2016 and all of 2017 at the AA level.
After a strong outing, Mader was then sent back to Mississippi in order for Enderson Franco to come up and make a start on Saturday. All of this maneuvering was thanks to both Lucas Sims and Matt Wisler, members of the Gwinnett rotation, being recalled to the big league club.
5/25/2018: Promoted C Sal Giardina from Mississippi to Gwinnett
5/25/2018: Promoted C Carlos Martinez from Rome to Mississippi
5/25/2018: Activated C Alan Crowley from the 7-day DL (Rome)
5/26/2018: Activated C Rob Brantly from the 7-day DL (Gwinnett)
5/26/2018: Placed C Jonathan Morales on the 7-day DL (Gwinnett)
Organizational catcher Sal Giardina gets back to AAA to help the catching corps weather another injury, this time to Morales, who was just promoted from Mississippi in relief of Brantly last week. This set off a chain of catcher moves reaching down all the way to Rome.
Martinez is a solid defensive catcher who was not getting a lot of playing time behind catching prospects William Contreras and Drew Lugbauer in Rome. Crowley had been stashed on the DL since Opening Day and will hopefully see some game action before all of this rights itself.
Mailbag Q&A
Thanks to members of the Outfield Fly Rule and Braves Support Group Facebook groups for questions!
Q: If we think of a minor leaguer’s path to the majors as a checklist of specific skills that need to be mastered (plate discipline, improve sinker command, get better at stealing bases, etc), I have a double question: 1. From what you’ve seen, from any prospect, which empty box is closest to getting checked next? Player and skill, please. 2. If you could magically check one box for any player, which would it be and why? –B. Blackwell
A: The first of several questions submitted by my OFR colleagues, and it’s a doozy.
First off, I don’t see a minor leaguer’s path as a checklist of specific skills that need to be mastered because very few players manage to master those skills before he’s deemed good enough for the majors. Ronald Acuna is without a doubt the most exciting young player in the majors, but he hasn’t mastered several skills. Jeff Francoeur had a 12-year major league career that can’t be considered anything but successful, but he never mastered plate discipline. It’s more like a report card, there will be skills a player has mastered, some that need improvement, but it doesn’t take all A’s to advance a level.
But taking your questions at face value, I think Kolby Allard’s biggest skills question coming into this season, fastball command, has been answered. You could also make a case for Austin Riley’s hitting approach. A skill that hasn’t quite been displayed consistently enough but seems on the verge is Touki Toussaint’s control.
If I could wave a magic wand and have a player take a quantum leap in a skill, it would be Lucas Herbert‘s bat-to-ball skills. Herbert is a strong defensive catcher with good raw power and a solid hitting approach. If he made more and better contact, he would become one of the top catching prospects in baseball.
Q: Would you say Allard was scratched in order to make a spot start, or more to be cautious after the injury scare? Follow up: should Allard make a spot start and dazzle, does he stay up? – D. Short
A: Tough questions from my “friends” here at OFR and two-parters as well!
I think it was both. They wanted to give him a little more time, and they were also eyeballing the Monday doubleheader in Atlanta (or the Tuesday afterwards, which looks tentatively will mark the return of Anibal Sanchez). The fact that he hasn’t gone on Gwinnett’s disabled list, which is only 7 days in the minors, indicates to me that he’s healthy and will likely get the call-up.
The Braves seem to be having open tryouts for the 5th-starter spot between Soroka, Wisler, Gohara, Sanchez, and perhaps Allard. If Allard pitches and pitches well, I don’t see why they wouldn’t keep running him out there.
Q: Alex Jackson is stinking and no one else is standing out, either. How worried should we be? Is this an area we will need to now prioritize going into next year through trade or signing? And if so, who might fit? What kind of deal should we look for? Also, while I’m at it what in the world is going on with Jackson?- M. Smith
A: Another OFRer heard from, this time with a five-part question.
I would not be worried about the catcher position as a whole, as there are still some strong performers. William Contreras has been on a roll in Rome, and Brett Cumberland continues to show a three-true-outcomes kind of bat, hitting 4 HR with a .360 OBP in a tough league for hitters. Just in general, catchers will move at a slower rate through the minor leagues than other positions simply because there is more to the position, mentally and physically.
With Alex Jackson specifically, hopes after a strong performance in the AFL that he could push for a 2018 call-up to Atlanta at some points have faded as he’s only hit .182/.283/.264 on the year. I don’t think there’s anything “wrong” with Jackson; his approach doesn’t seem to be any different than usual, but he’s not barrelling as many pitches as he did last season. He does seem to be pressing at the plate, causing him to expand his zone a bit; he’s still putting the bat on the ball, but not putting the ball in play with a lot of authority. In short, I think he’s just in a bad slump. There’s been questions about his hit tool in the past, and for good reason, but I don’t think he’s regressed in that department. In short, let’s be patient.
That all said, the Braves were always likely to have to sign at least one, and perhaps two catchers for 2019. The Cadillac option would be for Dodgers catcher Yasmani Grandal, a player Alex Anthopoulos has experience with in Los Angeles and is one of the better pitch framers in the league, as a skill that the Braves place a lot of stock in. He’s also having a good season at the plate and will only be 30 years old at the start of 2019. I’ve suggested a 4 year, $56 million deal, but bidding on Grandal may end up being higher than the Braves want to commit to a catcher however, so I expect the Braves to simply re-sign either or both of Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki, both of whom seem to love being Braves.
Q: Now that the Atlanta club is worth watching again, a lot of us that were finding our baseball-y manna from heaven via the farm system have likely shifted our focus away from the youngsters. Which players in our system have made the most unexpected waves – or least heralded strides, if you prefer – while fans like me have been distracted by a surprisingly competitive big league club? – P. Tapley
A: Of the top 30 guys, Ian Anderson has seemed to have put things together well over the last several weeks, a welcome development for one of the highest upside arms in the systems. If you’re looking for some possible hidden gems, here’s one from each affiliate:
Gwinnett: We talked about RHP Evan Phillips in last week’s Farm Report, and nothing this week has changed the idea that he could be a help in the Atlanta bullpen soon. Phillips had a 6.14 ERA over two levels last year.
Mississippi: Tyler Marlette was once a top catching prospect for the Mariners. Remember how I said catchers can progress slower due to the nature of the position? Marlette’s a good example of this, as he’s having his best offensive season in several years. He’s been playing first base due to team needs, but he could be a dark horse candidate to move to Gwinnett the next time the catching carousel goes ’round… and a catcher at AAA could be a catcher in the majors with just one injury.
Florida: Troy Bacon, RHP, was a 4th-round JUCO signing from last year’s draft. He pitched effectively but minimally for the GCL Braves last year, but he got a double-bump up to Florida when the team needed an arm to fill in the bullpen. Bacon has made the most of the opportunity, striking out over a batter an inning with a minuscule 0.918 WHIP.
Rome: I’m going to cheat here an give you two. LHP Bruce Zimmermann and SS Riley Delgado were both senior signs in 2017 and are a little old for the level, but they’ve done nothing but perform. I was expecting Delgado to be a solid defensive contributor that would hold his own at the plate, but I wasn’t expecting a .317 hitter with a nose for RBIs. Zimmermann has been a rock in the Rome rotation, and he’s tied for second in the system in innings pitched. Both players could easily be promoted to advanced-A Florida if opportunity arises.
Q: If you had to pick one to make it to the majors, which one would you choose out of Jared James, Isranel Wilson, and Justin Smith? And am I the only Braves fan who misses an affiliate in the Carolina League? – T. Poe
A: While Wilson and Smith both have higher upside, I’d have to choose James as the most likely to make the majors. Left-handed hitters with good bat-to-ball skills and pop can find themselves on major league benches, and he’s advanced as high as AA already. And while I never was able to take a trip to Lynchburg, Myrtle Beach, or Zebulon while the Braves had affiliates there, I certainly miss being able to see the advanced-A affiliate on MiLB.TV.
Q: How is Kyle Wright looking? He has appeared to have been roughed up some this year. – D. McHan
A: Wright looks like a talented pitcher who is still working on refining his craft. When I watch him pitch, I don’t get the impression that results are his primary concern, and he’s often working on one or two pitches or locations.
Q: How is Travis Demeritte doing? Does he look like a big time prospect? -S. Pannell
A: After a rough start, Demeritte has hit .273/.380/.442 for the month of May. Streakiness isn’t anything new for Demeritte, so a sustained run of offensive production will go a long way toward restoring his prospect status. After establishing a reputation as a plus defender at second base, Demeritte has played exclusively in left field for Mississippi in an effort to increase his value and hasn’t looked bad. But I don’t see him as a “big time” prospect; he’s a guy with a shot to be a utility infielder with some pop.
Q: It may be a bit early, but are there any guys that we look at for a call-up in the event we make the post-season? – C. Primm
A: I agree that it’s a bit early. There’s no way to know what the team needs will be by the time the post-season rolls around, or even if the Braves will make it. But isn’t it nice that it’s a distinct possibility that decisions like this may need to be made this year?
Q: Which prospects are most likely to be traded, for a top arm with control or a rental, come the deadline? – H. Crawford
A: Kind of along the same lines, it’s a little early to know what the team needs will be and what would actually be available on the market. I don’t see the Braves trading any top prospects for rentals; however, any pitcher with control would have to be demonstratively better than what is already in house, which may be a tall order.
Q: If Touki Toussaint can harness is fastball and manage an average change, as he has done in a handful of starts this year, where do you see his ceiling/floor? – A. Bell
A: Toussaint still has one of the highest ceilings in the farm, if not the highest, and if it all comes together for him he could be a frontline starter. His floor is a middle reliever with tantalizing stuff and frustrating control.
Q: Which of our prospect starters would be more likely to be moved to a bullpen role and why? – M. Peterson
A: Gohara has looked good out of the bullpen and could continue with that roll once he returns for bereavement leave. Long-term he should still be seen as a starter, but his fastball/slider combo would allow him to fill several bullpen rolls if the team stays in contention. Wes Parsons is a fringe prospect that has pitched as both a starter and a reliever recently and could see time in the majors. The longshot guess here is that right-hander Bryse Wilson could cut his teeth in the bullpen late this season if he continues to show advanced command in the upper minors.
Leave a Reply