Wednesday, May 30 marked the one-third mark through the minor league regular season, a good time to check in with the OFR Top 30 prospects and see how they are doing. This is the second part of a two-part post, looking at prospects #16-30.
CLICK HERE FOR PROSPECTS #1-15
(All stats presented are through Wednesday, May 30)
16. William Contreras, C
A: .280/.357/.400 | 140 PA | 3 HR | 7.9 BB% | 20.7 K% | 119 wRC+
Contreras got a surprise invite to big league spring training, then a surprise assignment to extended spring training instead of Rome when Opening Day rosters were announced. It’s unknown if he was banged up or the organization simply wanted him to work on something, but Contreras joined the Rome squad on April 23 and has essentially picked up right where he left off last season with Danville, being a steady offensive contributor and a solid receiver. Contreras has had multi-hit games in over a third of his starts so far this season.
17. Brett Cumberland, C
A+: .232/.375/.366 | 176 PA | 4 HR | 16.5 BB% | 23.3 K% | 120 wRC+
After working nearly exclusively in the outfield during the winter leagues and sightings of him in the outfield during spring training, there was some thought that Cumberland may be about to make a permanent defensive change. Instead, Cumberland has played catcher exclusively through the first third of the season. On the offensive side, Cumberland’s low batting average masks an overall improvement; he’s getting on base and hitting for more power than his first go-round the advanced-A circuit last season.
18. Dustin Peterson, OF
AAA: .267/.319/.457 | 113 PA | 4 HR | 7.1 BB% | 27.4 K% | 119 wRC+
MLB: .000/.000/.000 | 2 PA | 0 HR | 0.0 BB% | 50.0 K% | -100 wRC+
It’s been an up-and-down first two months of the season for Peterson. After a spring training that saw him launch some prodigious home runs to announce that his power-sapping hamate-injury problems were behind him, he stumbled out of the gate at AAA Gwinnett. He eventually came ’round and had one of the most productive two weeks of his career when an injury occurred and he missed three weeks in May. Then he came back and after a few games hit another home run and was called up to the majors for the first time. In his first game he lost track of the count and struck out looking to end the game, and then was told he would be relegated to the bench.
This has been almost a microcosm of Peterson’s professional career to date, where it seems like every two steps forward is accompanied by a step back. However, making the 40-man roster is a big step for Peterson, and though he’s already been optioned back to Gwinnett, he is now in a good spot to help the big league club whenever performance and opportunity line up.
See also: Get To Know a Call-Up: Dustin Peterson, Braves Sunday Farm Report, 4/29/2018
19. Kyle Muller, LHP
A: 2.40 ERA | 4.25 FIP | 6 G, 6 GS | 30.0 IP | 2.40 BB/9 | 6.90 K/9
A+: 4.12 ERA | 3.37 FIP | 4 G, 4 GS | 19.2 IP | 5.95 BB/9 | 9.15 K/9
The tall lefty spent last season and the off-season cleaning up his delivery, and the work paid off with a good look at Rome and a quick promotion to Florida. The next step for Muller is being able to repeat that delivery every pitch; when he does, he’s a groundball machine. When he doesn’t he can allow baserunners in bunches.
That said, he’s in a much better place than he was this time last season, still in extended spring training while his fellow high-round 2016 draft-mates were making SAL hitters look silly.
See also: Braves Sunday Farm Report, 5/13/2018
20. Travis Demeritte, UT
AA: .255/.359/.433 | 185 PA | 5 HR | 13.0 BB% | 25.4 K% | 123 wRC+
As of this writing, Demeritte is on one of his patented hot streaks, hitting .327/.424/.571 over the last 15 games. This has put his season numbers roughly on equal ground as this time last season, before a horrible summer slump killed the momentum he’d gained after a strong Arizona Fall League performance. Demeritte’s ability to improve his prospect stock will depend greatly on avoiding a similar summer swoon.
Demeritte has to date played only in left field, apparently in an attempt to increase his value as a potential super-utility player in the future.
21. Ricardo Sanchez, LHP
AA: 10.80 ERA | 4.62 FIP | 2 G, 2 GS | 5.0 IP | 5.40 BB/9 | 7.20 K/9
After getting shut down in mid-August last season, Sanchez has not helped the perception of fragility by only making two starts in this season to date. Before his shut-down last season, Sanchez showed a much-improved change-up to go with his mid-90s fastball and plus curveball, so his stuff is not a question.
It feels like Sanchez has been around forever, being part of one of the first trades that the rebuilding Braves made before the 2015 season, so it’s easy to be surprised that he just turned 21 years old last month. That said, the Braves elected to grace him with a 40-man roster spot this offseason, a decision that’s becoming more difficult to justify.
22. Drew Waters, OF
A: .287/.340/.566 | 147 PA | 6 HR | 4.8 BB% | 22.4 K% | 151 wRC+
After appearing in a game with Rome on April 21, Waters was hitting .237/.297/.424 with 1 home run on the season and then went on the disabled list. Two weeks later, Waters was reinstated to the active roster, and demonstrated a more open batting stance.
Waters has been on a .325/.373/.675 tear since then with 5 home runs and 3 stolen bases, peppering the field with line drives. While his .375 BABiP will naturally regress and slow his performance down to some degree, it won’t matter too much as long as he continues to see the ball well and keep his bat quick through the zone. He still has a tendency to give up on pitches to the inside of the plate (and complain too much when those pitches are called for strikes), but the improvement from the 19-year-old from Cherokee County native has been impressive.
23. Lucas Herbert, C
A+: .207/.274/.351 | 125 PA | 4 HR | 8.8 BB% | 27.2 K% | 77 wRC+
Herbert moved up to advanced-A Florida after struggling to hit consistently in Rome. Unsurprisingly, he’s struggled to hit consistently in Florida. That said, he has shown improving power, and he does have a solid grasp of the strike zone. Defensively, it’s hard to say how he’s doing without getting eyes on him, but he’s improved his caught stealing percentage to 47%.
24. Jacob Lindgren, LHP
MLB: DNP
The man whose nickname is “The Strikeout Factory” will have to wait another 18 months at least to see if he can live up to the moniker for the Braves. He had his second UCL replacement surgery this spring.
25. Freddy Tarnok, RHP
A: 1.09 ERA | 3.45 FIP | 12 G, 0 GS | 24.2 IP | 7.66 BB/9 | 12.77 K/9
The Braves 3rd-round pick in the 2017 draft has had his innings closely monitored while pitching in the Rome bullpen. The work has been good as he works to consistently repeat his delivery. When he’s on, he has easy mid-90s gas and two viable off-speed pitches. When he’s off he has control problems, but those outings seem to be occurring less as the season progresses.
I would expect Tarnok to get a shot in the rotation before too long, and he’s definitely the most interesting teenage pitcher in the Braves stable right now.
26. Izzy Wilson, OF
A: .203/.301/.323 | 155 PA | 2 HR | 11.6 BB% | 31.0 K% | 81 wRC+
Wilson had a very rough start to the season, to the point that he has started losing playing time to 2017 20th-rounder Justin Smith. Wilson’s primary problem seems to be pitch recognition, and he’s often slow on the fastball or out in front of breaking balls. Wilson is selective, and his 18 walks pace the Rome Braves, but he’s making much softer contact than he’s done before.
Wilson has slowly started hitting more consistently over the course of May however, and has hit .276/.382/.345 over the last two weeks. Wilson is still only 20 years old and has enough talent that patience should be the order of the day.
27. J.C. Encarnacion, 3B
A: .290/.323/.409 | 186 PA | 3 HR | 4.3 BB% | 26.9 K% | 107 wRC+
Like Waters, Encarnacion has re-configured his batting stance to be more open and has reaped the reward of improved vision. After a tough start to the season, Encarnacion has hit .317/.346/.455 over the course of the month of May while also hitting the ball with more authority, especially up the middle and opposite field.
Encarnacion’s bat-to-ball skills are perhaps the best on the Rome Braves squad, and he seems to be working on being more selective at the plate. In the field he still shows some stiffness, but he makes all of the routine plays and does a nice job coming in on the ball.
See also: Braves Sunday Farm Report, 5/20/2018
28. Devan Watts, RHP
A+: 5.91 ERA | 6.70 FIP | 8 G, 0 GS | 10.2 IP | 3.38 BB/9 | 6.75 K/9
AA: 3.29 ERA | 4.44 FIP | 10 G, 0 GS | 13.2 IP | 3.29 BB/9 | 4.61 K/9
Watts has only allowed earned runs in 4 of his 18 appearances to date. Unfortunately, those four outings were explosive innings where everything seemed to fall apart for the hard-throwing righty. Several of his other outings were of the “whistling past the graveyard” type as well, much unlike the regular shut-down reliever that Watts showed to be much of 2017.
Watts is allowing more hard contact and is striking out batters at a lower rate than in 2017. I do not know the reason for this trend, but Watts has not made an appearance since May 25, but like teammate Joey Wentz he has also not been placed on the disabled list.
29. Tucker Davidson, LHP
A+: 5.85 ERA | 5.40 FIP | 9 G, 9 GS | 40.0 IP | 6.30 BB/9 | 6.75 K/9
After an offseason of receiving significant prospect buzz from the likes of Baseball America, the Braves 2016 19th-rounder got this season off with a loud thud. Davidson’s season ERA stood at 8.04 before his last two starts, a combined 12 innings of 1-run ball.
To put it bluntly, Davidson’s control has been terrible for most of the season. Davidson has to pinpoint his pitches down in the strikezone to be effective, and his stuff doesn’t have enough movement to fool anyone if he misses in the strikezone. Hopefully his last two starts indicate that a switch has flipped for him, and he walked only four batters total in those starts.
30. Drew Lugbauer, C
A: .219/.295/.361 | 173 PA | 6 HR | 9.2 BB% | 36.4 K% | 88 wRC+
Like many of his fellow Rome batsmen, Lugbauer’s bat seems to be warming up with the weather. While his 6 home runs is tied for tops on the team, it’s only been over the last 10 days or so that Lugbauer has been hitting the ball with authority to all parts of the park.
Defensively Lugbauer is well behind teammate William Contreras as well as fellow prospects Alex Jackson, Brett Cumberland, and Lucas Herbert. While he does a solid job of framing and game calling, his actions behind the plate are stiff and his strong arm hides questionable footwork. Still, it doesn’t hurt the Braves to keep him at catcher for now to see if he can grow into the position and increase his value.
Zimmermann didnt crack the top 30 based on what he has accomplished thus far?
This top 30 is from the offseason. An update mid-season Top 30 will come out later in June.
Will Zimmermann be on the list? I’m not sure yet. There’s no denying that he’s done what has been asked of him with aplomb, but he’s also older and more experienced than his level. I hope the Braves move him to advanced-A ball soon in order to provide him with more challenge.