Welcome to the Braves Farm Report, where we will take a look at the Braves farm system and look at trends and players that seem interesting, and give first hand accounts of what we’re seeing down on the farm. This week I take a look at some Braves prospects that didn’t make the Top 30 list this week but that are nevertheless of interest and we answer questions from the mailbag.
Just Off The Top 30
This week saw the release of the mid-season OFR Top 30 Prospect update. It’s always a struggle to figure out which prospects round out the list. Here’s some prospects that weren’t necessarily candidates for that last spot, but that are of interest going forward.
PITCHERS
Wes Parsons, RHP (AAA Gwinnett): Parsons was added to the 40-man roster and called up when the Braves ran out of arms after a period of bullpen overuse, but didn’t get into a game. Nevertheless, it was an indication that Parsons has the attention of the organization after dominating in AA Mississippi and now pitching effectively at Gwinnett. It’s been a long time coming for the crafty righty whose career was repeatedly disrupted by injury.
Corbin Clouse, LHP (AA Mississippi): Clouse almost went the whole month of June without allowing an earned run out of the Mississippi bullpen, and long runs of successful outings are not new for him. Clouse could be a middle relief option as soon as September, but reverse-split tendencies that cropped up last season have gotten more pronounced.
Troy Bacon, RHP (A+ Florida): The 2017 4th-rounder was jumped to advanced-A, skipping Danville and Rome, and he’s showing that even that may have been too conservative a promotion. Bacon has a fastball that travels in the high-90s and a solid breaking ball that can generate swing-and-miss. The knock on Bacon so far is that left-handers have been hitting him hard, to a .327/.450/.408 batting line against. Pre-draft scouting had Bacon developing a change-up, and he may need that to combat this.
Nolan Kingham, RHP (Rk Danville): Kingham only has two appearances in Danville and won’t likely pitch a lot this season after helping pitch the University of Texas into a long NCAA tournament run. Kingham has a full repertoire that should allow him to be successful — mid 90s fastball, sinker, slider, change-up, with a good idea of what to do with it.
Jake Higginbotham, LHP (Rk Danville): Similar to Kingham, Higginbotham helped Clemson into the tournament and will be somewhat restricted the rest of the way. Higginbotham missed two seasons with first an elbow fracture then a torn lat, but came back his junior year and seemed to get stronger as the season progressed.
Matt Rowland, RHP (Rk Danville): Dilmer Mejia and Jose Montilla have been Danville’s best starters so far this season, but Rowland is perhaps the most interesting. Signed for a large overslot bonus back in the 2016 draft, Rowland’s career was derailed by injuries before he could make his pro debut. Two years later, he’s finally on the mound with Danville. The results have been mixed so far as he’s working on fastball command more than results, but he’s got a strong three-pitch mix.
POSITION PLAYERS
Travis Demeritte, UT (AA Mississippi): Demeritte was sitting at #30 on my list for awhile until I saw CJ Alexander play in Danville last week. Even so, it can be argued that Demeritte should have the spot considering his proximity to the majors, his positional flexibility, and his power. On the other hand, there’s been little demonstrative progress in Demeritte’s offensive game. He’s still striking out at a near 30% clip and he still goes through slumps that take months to get out of.
Derian Cruz, IF (A Rome): With the success of so many other players in Rome’s line-up, the strides that Cruz has made can get overshadowed, especially since his statistics — a .217/.250/.308 batting line, a 38% stolen base success rate, 23 errors at second base — are extremely unimpressive. That said, watching Cruz play this season versus last shows a hitter that is striking the ball with much more authority and a fielder playing with more skill and confidence. Cruz is still only 19 years old, and hindsight says he was probably pushed up too fast. But all the tools that made him a big signing in the 2015 international signing period are still present.
Andrew Moritz, OF (A Danville): Moritz has two strong tools: he can hit, and he plays a good centerfield. That can get a guy far, especially if he develops at least reliable gap power which he seems to be on the way to doing. With the unprecedented amount of older, high-floor college talent drafted, the lower minor league assignments next year will be interesting to follow.
Justin Dean, OF (A Danville): Dean and Moritz sound like a law firm, but they are also an interesting tandem in the Danville’s outfield. Both are centerfielders by trade. Moritz seems to have the edge on route-running, but Dean is faster and has a stronger arm. As hitters they have similar skillsets as well, though I think Moritz could develop more power while Dean is faster. The Braves may have to split the two of them up so they can both play centerfield regularly.
Greg Cullen, 2B (A Danville): If Moritz has two strong tools, Cullen really could only be said to have one, but that one is a doozy. Cullen has the most advanced pitch recognition, plate discipline, and bat control of any hitter in the Danville line-up. That’s a tremendously good hit tool, and if he develops any others he could find himself on prospect lists very quickly.
Life on the Farm
DSL: The Bravos Dominicanos started the week snapping an 11-game losing streak and ending the week with a win, losing the three games in between to go 2-3. As with last week, the offense was carried by shortstop Carlos Paraguate, who after a slow start is now batting .444/.488/.583 in July, and first baseman Kimberling Encarnacion who hit .316/.333/.474 this week. They were joined by outfielder Brandol Mezquita, who turned 17 on Saturday and hit .364/.588/.364 this week to celebrate. The pitching side of the equation was a little rough, though the team got solid starts from Jose Olague and Oscar Nunez.
GCL: The Kissimmee Krew started the week by defeating the Tigers in the first game of a double-header, but then dropped the second half and the next five games after that. Among the pitchers the most interesting development has been 23rd-round draft pick William Woods getting a second start and pitching well. The offensive standout of the week was first baseman Ray Hernandez out of Alabama State. Hernandez hit .353/.389/.588 on the week while also socking his 3rd home run of the season.
DANVILLE: Danville went 6-1 on a busy week and the team is riding a 5-game winning streak heading into play today. The surge has brought them to within 1.5 games behind the division leading Bluefield Blue Jays, whom the team trounced 17-4 on Saturday after putting 11 runs on the board in a 6th inning that saw the entire line-up get on base at least once. First baseman Griffin Benson has shaken off a slow start and had four extra base hits this week on his way to a .471/.500/.882 week, including leading off that 6th inning last night with his first home run of the season. All of the other Danville regulars – Justin Dean, Greg Cullen, Brett Langhorne, Andrew Moritz, and CJ Alexander – posted an OPS over .800 this week. With the promotion of shortstop AJ Graffanino to Rome, infielder Nicholas Shumpert has been given an opportunity and he responded by hitting .286/.375/.429 with 2 doubles.
The pitching has been nearly equally as strong this week, especially starting pitchers Jose Montilla (12 IP, 1 ER, 12 Ks) and Dilmer Mejia (6 IP, 3 ER) who provided three Quality Starts between them, a rarity at this level. Tanner Lawson, Matt Rowland, and Ryan Shetter each had good, if more abbreviated starts this week. Left-hander Tanner Allison has been showing he may be ready for a return trip to Rome, pitching 4 scoreless innings of relief and driving hid Danville ERA down to 0.52.
ROME: The Romans continued their post-clinch stupor this week, going only 1-7 in a brutal stretch of the schedule and the team will look to snap a 5-game losing streak today in Augusta. The team only averaged 2 runs a game this week as the offense that powered the club through a blistering June has gone ice cold. Outfielder Jefrey Ramos was the only standout performer this week, hitting .273/.304/.591 and slugging 2 home runs.
Starting pitching has been an issue since the promotion of left-hander Bruce Zimmermann to Mississippi. Righty Huascar Ynoa has not pitched since early July, though he has not gone on the disabled list, and right-hander Freddy Tarnok‘s transition to the rotation has not resulted in good performances so far. A bright spot has been the emergence of right-hander Hayden Deal, who has shined in his opportunities with spot starts. The bullpen however continues to be a strength.
FLORIDA: Someone break up the Fire Frogs! The team went 6-2 on the week, getting outstanding pitching performances from starters Joey Wentz (2 starts, 13.1 IP, 0 ER, 9 Ks), Ian Anderson (2 starts, 11 IP, 1 ER, 15 Ks), Kyle Muller (1 start, 7 IP, 0 ER, 12!Ks), Jon Kennedy (1 start, 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks), and Tucker Davidson (1 start, 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks). Outside of one bad inning from the recently promoted Brandon White this week and two bad outings by the since-released Mauricio Cabrera, the bullpen has been absolutely lights-out with Thomas Burrows, Justin Kelly, Josh Graham, Troy Bacon, Connor Johnstone, and Chase Johnson-Mullins pitching a combined 14.1 innings without allowing an earned run.
The Frogs offense benefited from a monster week from outfielder Cristian Pache, who tallied 10 hits including 2 more home runs, going .345/.424/.621. Utilityman Kurt Hoesktra has also kept up his hot streak, hitting .391/.417/.522 with a homer of his own.
MISSISSIPPI: The M-Braves had a successful week, going 5-2 while concluding a road trip at Birmingham and beginning a home series against Pensacola. The team has now won 8 of their last 12 and is over .500 in the second half standings. The pitching took center stage this week as the offense only scored 20 runs in those seven games, with nine coming in one game. Ricardo Sanchez had his best AA start, pitching seven shutout innings on Saturday, striking out six while only allowing four hits and striking out two. Bruce Zimmermann had a good start in a 9-2 win, going 6.2 innings and allowing only one run while striking out six. Bryse Wilson continued to settle in versus AA hitters by pitching 13.1 innings over two starts, giving up only two runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out 16. The bullpen had a couple of standouts this week as Chad Sobotka had a win and two saves, pitching four perfect innings while striking out six, and Corbin Clouse, who pitched 4.2 shutout innings over two appearances and earning a win.
The offense had little to note this week but 3B Daniel Lockhart went 7-21 with 3 RBI (.333/.391/.476) and OF Tyler Neslony hit his first two home runs of the season. On the negative side of the ledger, C Alex Jackson entered another slump, going 2-18 with two walks and seven strikeouts. Ray-Patrick Didder played his first few games for the M-Braves after being promoted from Florida, going 2-12 with seven strikeouts and three stolen bases.
GWINNETT: The Stripers played an abbreviated schedule this week due to the AAA All-Star Game, but they went 3-1 in that limited action with three of the games being decided by one run. All four outings by the starting pitchers were good this week, led by Lucas Sims who only gave up two runs in 12.1 innings over two starts. Sims struck out 14 while only giving up nine hits and two walks. Luiz Gohara had a quality start in his first since being optioned from Atlanta to prepare him to join the big-league rotation after the All-Star break, allowing only two runs over six innings of work. Matt Wisler had a nice start as well, only allowing one run over six innings in his sole outing of the week.
Austin Riley made his way back from the disabled list and a brief rehab stint in the GCL, going 3-12 with two walks and two strikeouts. OF Dustin Peterson had a nice week, going 6-15 with a home run and three RBI (.400/.471/.600). OF Xavier Avery also had a good week, going 7-15 with two stolen bases while Rio Ruiz had a down week, going just 3-19 while driving in two runs.
POSITION PLAYER of the WEEK:
PITCHER of the WEEK:
Transaction Round-Up
7/9/2018: C Lucas Herbert activated from 7-day DL (Florida)
7/9/2018: C Alan Crowley placed on 7-day DL (Florida)
Herbert’s DL stint lasted exactly 7 days, and by pure coincidence Herbert’s fill-in Crowley was hurt on the same day!
7/9/2018: SS Ray-Patrick Didder promoted to Mississippi from Florida
7/10/2018: SS Riley Delgado promoted to Florida from Rome
7/10/2018: SS AJ Graffanino promoted to Rome from Danville
7/11/2018: SS Luis Marte promoted to Gwinnett from Mississippi
7/12/2018: SS Tyler Smith released from Gwinnett
Historians will one day look back and call this The Great Braves Shortstop Migration. Seriously though, all earned promotions, especially newly minted #27 prospect Delgado.
Smith was a minor league Rule V draftee who was hitting .219/.298/.363. The organization was apparently unimpressed with his being awarded the OFR Position Player of the Week in the June 24 Farm Report.
7/11/2018: LHP Chase-Johnson Mullins actived from the 7-day DL (Florida)
This will be the second attempt by Mullins to stay on the active roster this season. The big lefty has impressive stuff, but this will be a critical time for him to show he can go to the post.
7/11/2018: RHP Mauricio Cabrera released from Florida
It’s been a long and winding road for the hard-throwing Cabrera, but the road has ended, at least for his Braves career. Just two seasons ago Cabrera was a surprise promote to the big league squad, and even more surprising his performance was strong and it looked like Cabrera would assume a role in the Braves bullpen for the foreseeable future. One lackluster spring training followed by an injury later, and Cabrera was back in the minors and simply not able to throw strikes, making his way backwards back down the organizational chain. The Braves finally pulled the plug after Cabrera came into game Florida was leading 7-2 in the 8th. Cabrera’s inning: walk, wild pitch, single, wild pitch, home run. He was pulled and released the next day.
7/12/2018: 3B Austin Riley activated from the 7-day (Gwinnett)
One of the hottest hitters in the first two months of the season returns to the Gwinnett line-up. A strong July and August could put him on the path of a September cup of coffee.
7/12/2018: C Sal Giardina transferred to Mississippi from Gwinnett
7/13/2018: C Jonathan Morales activated from the 7-day DL
In his latest stint with Gwinnett, Giardina hit .500/.550/.556 in five starts in the line-up, but more importantly Mississippi’s Bruce Zimmermann conceded that it is Giardina, not Zimmermann, who has the top mustache in the organization. You can and should listen to his excellent interview with the guys on The Platinum Sombrero podcast.
Mailbag Q&A
Thanks to members of the Outfield Fly Rule Facebook group and fans on the Twitters for questions!
Q: Does it seem like the Braves aren’t fully committed to Johan Camargo? -A. Kirby
A: I think long-term they believe Austin Riley is the future Braves third baseman. In the short-term, they seem content with Camargo, who has been roughly a major league average third baseman this season. They are have reportedly checked in on Manny Machado, as you would expect a contending team to do since he’s by far the most talented player on the market, but I don’t think the team will make a move for a lesser rental player such as Minnesota’s Eduardo Escobar or Kansas City’s Mike Moustakas as the production uptick would be fairly negligible from what the team is already getting.
Q: Names and positions of the new International class.? – D. McHan
Here’s who I know of so far:
Jorge Bautista, 17, right-handed pitcher
Jose Dilone, 17, infielder
Francisco Floyd, 16, shortstop
Cesari Moreno, 16, right-handed pitcher
Carlos Paiva, 16, outfield
Jordano Perez, 17, right-handed pitcher
Osiris Sierra, 18, left-handed pitcher
Alexander Then, 16, infielder
Luis Vargas, 16, right-handed pitcher
Frankelvin Vidal, 16, right-handed pitcher
Q: With close to two seasons of subpar offensive production and Camargo’s resurgence, is Dansby being looked at as a long-term solution or bargaining chip for controllable bullpen/top line starter help? – J. Redmond
I would be very surprised if the Braves trade a player off their major league roster during the season. Despite his offensive struggles, Swanson’s defensive game has improved quite a bit over last season, and the team values that. There’s also a matter of believing in Swanson’s tool-set and that he’s shown what he’s capable over short bursts. Swanson also continues to hit well in clutch situations. While we were all expecting more from Swanson a this point in his career, it’s far too soon to ship him off for a relief pitcher.
That said, after the season, if Swanson’s offensive game hasn’t shown more improvement, the team almost certainly will have to re-evaluate the position.
Q: Does the fact that we didn’t sign our first round pick plus the international sanctions make it less likely we make a splash at the deadline? – B. Nelson
I don’t believe either of those two things will influence moves made at the deadline. At the same time, I don’t think we’ll make a “splash” like trading for the likes of Jacob deGrom or Machado either. I’d expect a move or to to shore up the bullpen and/or bench with controllable players.
Q: Considering our surprisingly successful year so far, our desire to be successful long-term, and our players both in the Majors and minors: what type of player should we be targeting for the stretch run (position, skill set, contract amount/length, etc.)? How much should we be willing to leverage of our prospect assets to make this happen? – M. Smith
I would be targeting controlled, experienced relievers such as Brad Hand and Kirby Yates of the Padres, Kyle Crick of the Pirates, Donnie Hart of the Orioles, or Jared Hughes of the Reds. Those types of relievers would be worth a Top 30-type prospect. As the deadline gets closer, or even after the deadline and into the August waiver-trade period, I would try to take advantage of team’s trying to dump salary for minimal return. The Braves could find quality bench or middle reliever options then for a modest price.
Q: How do you see the starting pitching rotation shaking out as these guys come back off the DL? Do we end up with what we started with in Tehran, Folty, Newk, Sanchez and McCarthy, or do you see some of the other youngsters taking anybody’s place? And if you do who takes who’s place? Also in the analysis, do you see any of the original 5 being traded at the deadline and who comes up to take their place?
It doesn’t seem that McCarthy will be ready after the break, but there’s no reason to to disrupt the other four starters. As for who will take that fifth spot, I think it will be either Luiz Gohara or Max Fried. Per 92.9 The Game’s Grant McAuley, Fried will throw a bullpen session on Sunday, and may get a rehab appearance next week. The only starter of the first five you mention that I think could have possibly have gotten traded during the season would be McCarthy, but I think his knee injury puts the kibosh on that.
Q: Which farmhands are on the bubble at this point due to lackluster performance? I’d imagine Matt Wisler and Rio Ruiz are near the end of their tethers. – N. Lyle
I don’t believe either Wisler or Ruiz are in danger of being released. At this point of the season, minor league teams have more trouble finding 25 healthy guys while also feeding the major league team with replacement talent than having too many players, and Wisler and Ruiz are both performing adequately in Gwinnett.
It’s more likely that the Braves will need to DFA players off the 40-man roster in order to accommodate other players who the team would like to promote to Atlanta, or possibly trade for. Players “on the bubble” for that reason would be Chad Bell, Chase Whitley, and Jason Hursh.
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