As the All-Star break winds to a close, here’s some trade ideas for the Braves as the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline approaches, with every writer proposing exactly two trades…
1. Atlanta sends RHP Huascar Ynoa and LHP Ricardo Sanchez to the Texas Rangers; Texas sends 3B Adrian Beltre to Atlanta
I think the Braves are in a weird place at the deadline. The hot corner represents the best opportunity to add a non-pitcher, but even there it’s hard to see a good fit. Here’s why: Camargo has been serviceable and has some ceiling to boot, Austin Riley is waiting in the wings, there aren’t a lot of great rental options available, and teams with deep pockets like the Yankees, Phillies, and Red Sox have gotten less production from their third baseman than the Braves. All this said, I think Alex Anthopolous is itching to get proactive, and I’m itching to predict a trade that I’d love. Enter veteran funny man and baseball player Adrian Beltre. He’s 39 years old, and he’s had a modest first half. It may seem that I’ve just listed two negatives, but both conspire to bring his price tag down to a level that the Braves would be comfortable with. And don’t sleep on a player with a slash line of .304/.365/.501 since 2016. Beltre is a well respected veteran and, despite his age, is likely primed for some positive regression in the power department during the second half. Make it happen, Alex.
2. Atlanta sends 3B Jean Carlos Encarnacion and RHP Jasseel De La Cruz to the Cincinnati Reds; Cincinnati sends RHP Matt Harvey and C Chris Okey to Atlanta
Shifting to the pitching side of the equation, a clear directive is evident: add depth and stability. The Braves have had unexpectedly admirable performances from bullpen pieces like Dan Winkler and Jesse Biddle. Young starters like Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, and Mike Soroka have answered the bell and helped propel the club back into contention. But youth and newfound success are precarious bedfellows, and the Braves would do well to bolster both their starting rotation and bullpen. I don’t think the Braves want to make a big investment in the bullpen, because there are so many farmhands that may eventually shapeshift from starter to reliever, and the ‘pen has been ok so far. So I’m gonna give a big blasé hand-wave to the reliever issue and say that the Braves will add some depth to the bullpen by trading for Anonymous Average-tossing Gentleman, or some such fellow. More interestingly, the Braves will tempt fate and add none other than former Met Matt Harvey to bolster their rotation. Anthopoulos and crew will recognize that the long beleaguered righty has a lot left in the tank, has improved markedly since breaking up with the Mets – including an uptick in velocity as corroboration – and knows well the NL East hitters that the Braves will have to retire time and time again in order to get to the postseason.
When I go to the grocery store to pick up a dozen eggs, I always break one of them before checking out. Even though only one egg is rendered useless, the discount at checkout is significant. Matt Harvey is damaged goods, but his price tag will be well lower than his value as a result.
Disclaimer: I don’t really break eggs in the grocery store, and I don’t encourage nor condone such behavior.
1. Atlanta sends LHPs Max Fried and Thomas Burrows to the Cincinnati Reds; Cincinnati sends RHPs Raisel Iglesias and Jared Hughes to Atlanta
I call this the poor man’s Hand. There were several options I considered, but this trade seems representative of the concept I think the Braves should pursue to shore up their pen for the stretch run. There are several bad teams with good relievers. The Padres were a great example of this. The Indians traded a top 10-20 player in baseball to get one of the prized relievers on the market along with another very good reliever. The Braves should engage in a similar trade, but with relievers who are a step down. As a result, we can give a guy who resided further down the top 100 list. The Reds make one good potential partner for this. Iglesias, 28, is a quality right-hander who is closing for the Reds and under a reasonable contract through 2020. Jared Hughes, 33, is a reliable veteran reliever having a good year who is under a reasonable contract through 2019 with a cheap option for 2020.
I love Fried, but I also see him sliding out of the long-term picture as he struggles to find consistency. He still has a lot of value, so let’s use it to get two pitchers with solid K/BB ratios and extra years of control who won’t cost an arm and a leg. The Reds need controlled starting pitching and their quality relievers aren’t keeping them out of the cellar this year, so it could work. If not, switch the names around and make your own proposal along these lines. For me, this is just representative of the type of trade I’d like to see. Predicting reliever trades is near impossible, but hey, maybe I’ll get lucky and regret hedging so much. In terms of financial cost, Iglesias and Hughes will cost less than $3 million this year, about $8.1 million next year, and then $6 million in 2020 (if we buyout Hughes option for $250,000 instead of pick it up for $3 million). That’s not a heavy investment to fortify a weakness. As for Burrows, he’s a reliever that could help the Reds as soon as next season.
2. Atlanta sends LHP Kolby Allard, RHP Bryse Wilson, C Alex Jackson, and C Tyler Flowers to the Miami Marlins; Miami sends C J.T. Realmuto to Atlanta
When I’m looking at what we are giving up, it is enough to make me real nervous about suggesting this trade. But I also find myself loving it. When I think about trading within our division for a young catcher who is good on both sides of the ball and controlled through 2020, and when I look at the starting pitching we still have left, I think it’s worth it. We are trading from our depth to meet a legitimate need for the next couple of years with a high value player. Alex Jackson, to me, is a high risk/high reward guy. Last year, he showed his promise, but this year reveals the risk. I’m not willing to hang my hat on Jackson as the solution through the early years of our competitive window, and there isn’t anyone else close. We have a few catching prospects further down, especially William Contreras, who I love, but Realmuto gives us a huge all-around value boosts and should hit free agency about the time Contreras might be ready to take over. I’m throwing Flowers in because Miami will need a replacement catcher and we don’t need three. Suzuki becomes a top-flight backup for the stretch run.
As for giving the Marlins a couple of really good pitching prospects who could grow into really good MLB pitchers the Braves will have to face a lot in our own division, well to be honest, I think that reasonably could happen. Allard and Wilson can be above average MLB pitchers. Despite taking a little step back as a prospect (due to velocity issues), Allard is still highly regarded (because he does pretty much everything else well), and Wilson just keeps stepping forward as a prospect, so this is a very legit package. At the same time, I’m not convinced the Marlins management is competent and willing enough to dig the team out of the hole any time soon even spotting them some good pitchers for the middle of the rotation. If they do, more power to them.
But I still like our chances beating out the Marlins in the division for the foreseeable future with Realmuto behind the plate and in the middle of the lineup complimenting the young talent all over the field, including the many quality starting pitchers we still have in the rotation. When didn’t amass starting pitching depth just to take the mound in Atlanta. We also have it to leverage to fill the right need at the right time, and this could very well be it.
Because I’m a rebel and chafe at rules and structure, I’ve chosen 3 targets I would like to see Atlanta go after.
1. Atlanta sends RHP Lucas Sims and UT Travis Demeritte to the San Diego Padres; Padres send RHP Kirby Yates to Atlanta
Starting off with the most believable, Yates has been exceptional this season. Already accumulating 1.2 fWAR due in large part to a minuscule .24HR/9IP, Yates would be a welcome addition to the pen. While most Braves fans (myself included) think little of Sims’ long term outlook at the MLB level, his numbers in AAA are still very strong and should be enticing for a team like San Diego. As for Demeritte, he faces an unlikely path to the majors with the Braves seeing as more long-term utility options are coming up through the system behind him, but San Diego has a history of making good use of athletic infielders like him.
2. Atlanta sends RHP Kyle Wright, LHP Luiz Gohara, LHP Kolby Allard, IF Johan Camargo, and LHP Tucker Davidson to the New York Mets; Mets send RHP Jacob deGrom to Atlanta
BOOM! You guys didn’t really think I WOULDN’T include a DeGrom package in this piece, did you? Not much needs to be said about this deal. Yes, it would suck to lose the talents of these players, but DeGrom is special. Face anyone in a head to head matchup with deGrom and I’m feeling confident.
3. Atlanta sends OF Ender Inciarte, LHP Ricardo Sanchez, and RHP Evan Phillips to the Pittsburgh Pirates; Pittsburgh sends OF Starling Marte and SS Ji-Hwan Bae to Atlanta
BAE IS BACK! With Pittsburgh in baseball purgatory due to their gauntlet of a division, a rebuild seems to be their best option. Ender is cheap, a great clubhouse guy, and would allow them to slide Austin Meadows into RF to ease the transition of their future star. Bae of course was infamously the prospect that seemed to initialize the whole “Coppygate” fiasco. While it may bring up some bad memories, Atlanta was all in on Bae for one simple reason: the kid can play. With Trea Turner speed and the glove to match, Bae would give the Braves some nice upside at SS, particularly if Dansby’s struggles at the plate continue.
1. Atlanta sends LHP Adam McCreery and LHP John Curtis to the Minnesota Twins; Twins send LHP Zach Duke and RHP Fernando Rodney to Atlanta
This is pretty much a classic trade-deadline deal of a contending team picking up a couple of veteran relievers on expiring contracts. Rodney and Duke are experienced post-season relievers, with Duke being a true LOOGY and Rodney a high-leverage reliever who can step in for the ailing Arodys Vizcaino to handle closer duties, freeing actual best reliever A.J. Minter to work in high-leverage innings wherever they may come in the game.
The Twins end up saving approximately $2.21 million in this deal, salary that is actually more than what the projected value of Duke and Rodney would be for the rest of the season. In return they would get McCreery, a talented but inconsistent 25-year-old left-handed reliever currently in AA Mississippi who is carrying a 3.95 ERA but also strikes out 11 batters per nine innings. In the philosophy of “you can never have too many left-handed relievers”, the Twins also get Curtis who has pitched well in limited action for Danville and Rome.
2. Atlanta sends LHP Luiz Gohara, LHP Kyle Muller, and C Drew Lugbauer to the Toronto Blue Jays; Blue Jays send RHP Marcus Stroman, RHP Ryan Tepera, and OF Curtis Granderson to Atlanta.
This is more on the lines of a deal to acquire players that can help the team both in this year and next that Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has indicated he’d prefer. Stroman has been banged up during the first half but has pitched to a 3.45 ERA/3.95 FIP upon his return. He’s only 27 years old with 2 years of control remaining, yet he’s also a post-season veteran. Tepera has been a top right-handed reliever in the AL and has three years of control left. Granderson is the only rental in the deal, and would provide excellent left-handed pop from the bench, playoff experience, and well-known positive clubhouse presence. Also taking Granderson back gives the Blue Jays payroll savings to help reduce the prospect cost for Atlanta.
Nevertheless, the price would be considerable. The Braves would have to dip into their pitching depth. Gohara is a major-league ready, high-upside arm. Muller is a former 2nd-round pick that’s lower in the system but also high-upside. Lugbauer is a versatile power hitter that can catch or play third or first.
Disclaimer: I’m basing my proposals on Alex Anthopoulos staying the course by seeing this as an evaluation season, but wanting to reward the current squad for their efforts so far in 2018. The big deals await in the offseason.
1. Atlanta sends 3B Rio Ruiz and LHP Tyler Pike to the Pittsburgh Pirates for 3B David Freese
The Pirates get younger at 3B with Ruiz (shockingly, he just turned 24) and get a LHP flier in Pike who has good stuff but serious control issues and can’t seem to clear the hump between AA and AAA while the Braves get the 35-year-old veteran Freese for the stretch run after passing on other 3B options. The right-handed hitting Freese, who is terrible against left-handers (.598 OPS, 67 wRC+) but destroys righties (.316/.372/.582, 155 wRC+), serves the same purpose as Mike Moustakas, creating a platoon with Johan Camargo and enabling Camargo to move around and still get plenty of playing time while strengthening the bench. Freese is owed about $1.7 million for the remainder of the season plus an affordable $500K buyout of a $6 million 2019 option. Freese has a -1 DRS in 36 games at 3B (and a 0 DRS in 11 games at 1B) but was a +8 DRS player at 3B as recently as last season.
2. Atlanta sends RHPs Matt Wisler and Lucas Sims and UT Travis Demeritte to the Chicago White Sox for RH reliever Joakim Soria
The current White Sox crop of young pitchers have been plagued with injuries and ineffectiveness and can use an infusion of talent. Wisler has allowed two runs or less in eight of his twelve Gwinnett starts this season and has had sporadic success at the major league level (3.63 ERA in three starts this season). Sims is a former first-round pick that has a 2.15 ERA in 13 AAA starts this season but hasn’t had a regular chance at the MLB level with only ten career starts. Both have been woefully miscast as occasional relievers to the detriment of their development. They could get an extended opportunity with the White Sox and if even one finds any degree of success with Chicago, it’s a win for them. Demeritte is essentially a throw-in.
Soria has had a good season for the White Sox with a 2.75 ERA and 2.20 FIP with 14 saves in 37 games, striking out 11.3 per 9 innings and walking just 2.25. Soria isn’t a pure rental, he’s owed about $3.7 million for the remainder of 2018 and has a $10 million mutual option for 2019 with a $1 million buyout. With Arodys Vizcaino’s ongoing shoulder issues, the Braves are in need of a dependable right-handed reliever outside of Dan Winkler.
1. Atlanta sends LHPs Thomas Burrows and Ricardo Sanchez to the Kansas City Royals for 3B Mike Moustakas.
I doubt the market is exactly hot for Moustakas and his .306 OBP at the moment, but while OBP is the most important single statistic, it isn’t the only important statistic. Moustakas has a .466 SLG, which alone makes him an above average offensive player. His 105 wRC+ this season nearly matches Johan Camargo’s (109). Camargo isn’t problematic, but in his career so far, he has performed much better against lefties (153 wRC+) than righties (86). With Moustakas, who has a 118 wRC+ against righties this season (and remember, this season is seen as a disappointment), coming over to platoon not only should the team’s 3B offense improve, but that will free up Camargo to be the super-utility player Atlanta hasn’t had since the days of Martin Prado. This move improves both the starting lineup and the bench. And it could reinvigorate Moose, who would seemingly enjoy Atlanta’s power alley to right field.
2. Atlanta sends RHP Patrick Weigel and OF Izzy Wilson to the Tampa Bay Rays for SP Nathan Eovaldi and RP Sergio Romo.
Weigel is on the shelf for a while with an injury, and while Wilson might not ever make it, he’s the type of speedy outfielder Tampa loves. The Braves are already swimming with controllable starters, so team control isn’t that important to me. I’m happy to rent Eovaldi and Romo for the stretch run. They’re both performing pretty well right now, and the team would get an up-close look at Eovaldi in the event they’d want to sign him in the upcoming free agency period.
3. Atlanta sends LHP Corbin Clouse and a PTBNL to Minnesota for LHP Zach Duke .
We need a lefty right now, and Clouse could be a useful southpaw for the Twins down the road. Duke is a reliable veteran who would, in the event of a playoff run, be a handy, affordable weapon. After the season, Atlanta can send someone they need now but not later as the final component (someone like Preston Tucker).
The idea here is to preserve the cache of top prospects while making a cautious push for the playoffs this season. Atlanta should be realistic about its chances, which FanGraphs currently lists at around 36%. That’s enough to do something to try to make the playoffs, but it isn’t high enough to sacrifice a ton of long-term value. There’s value in getting controllable players for the long-term, but you will never pay a higher premium for them than at the trade deadline. So while prices are elevated, I advocate for these affordable rentals.
The package for Iglesias is unrealistic, he costs a LOT more. Beltre isn‘t needed in Atlanta, there’s no need for Harvey, and Realmuto is not going to Atlanta for so little either.
If I were the owner of the Braves, I’d extend Brent Blackwell’s contract for four more years, and big time money for making those deals. I feel like this is precisely the approach the Braves should be taking this season. Given the great start, you don’t want to punt here- but the club realistically isn’t at the “all-in” point yet, either. Moose is a solid, respected veteran, who’s numbers might uptick a bit outside of KC. Renting Eovaldi and Romo makes sense, because the Braves lose nothing in that deal. And Duke, while not stellar, would be useful. Bravo.
On the other side of the coin, if I owned the team, I’d have to fire you, Dylan. Like immediately. Sorry. I hope you were renting, and not buying. If you just pulled deal #3 on it’s own, you’d have got the extension. I love Marte’s game. You traded way too much to our divisional rival though for DeGrom, so you’re out.
Good article though, guys. Thanks to all involved!
You should see the package that I DIDN’T scale down. Seriously though, New York isn’t giving you deGrom for crap. If you want a top 5 pitcher, you’re giving up big time value. In all honesty, it’s questionable if they would even accept that deal without Atlanta subbing Pache or Riley in place of Camargo/Davidson. Thanks for reading though, I’d love to see if that Marte deal would be enough
No, you’re right, you have to pay for that level of SP- especially swapping in division. I don’t believe the package is unrealistic. I just don’t believe the Braves are at a point where you make that move; and I’m definitely not sending Wright, Gohara, and Allard out the door when one of them could be that level of pitcher one day. I’d sooner let someone else make the colossal mistake of gutting their farm for one SP.
All of these proposals except for the one with the Blue Jays and White Sox are Delusional… And a waste of reading… Add a couple more top prospects to each.. The opposing GMs would laugh hysterically and hang up #fakenews
Thanks for the solid, intellectually sound, detailed, well thought out rebuttal!
Would you care to elaborate? I for one would love to see which couple of top prospects you think would be needed to my Kirby Yates package.
Im a Yankees Fan but not a delusional one just to put it out there… That being said I’d say San Diego Has the best Farm in Baseball with Atlanta 2nd and White Sox 3rd… Why would the Padres trade a very good cheap controlable Reliever for 2 players you admit suck and have no place on the Braves?? Id say Without putting to much thought into it.. D.Waters and another Solid Piece.. Maybe Weigel or someone slightly better… Problem is your farm is so top heavy with pitching someone like B.Wilson with Waters might be a slight over pay.. You know your farm better than me so.. But id say D.Waters+
Waters at this point would most definitely be an overpay for a reliever without any real track record. Originally I had Sims and Alex Jackson heading to SD, but they ruined that idea by acquiring Mejia. Sims is a guy that has struggled mightily at the MLB level, but his MILB numbers have been quite good at AAA. But in lieu of SD acquiring Mejia, I could see another player being added as a sweetener