It’s fair to say Johan Camargo‘s debut a season ago was one of the more surprising debuts in baseball. After failing to reach any higher than #52 in the Atlanta Braves system, it’s understandable that his performance yielded a heavy degree of skepticism. Atlanta Braves General Manager Alex Anthopoulos admitted he wasn’t sold on Camargo’s ability as a starter, as shown by the infamous Jose Bautista experiment. After 535 plate appearances, however, it’s time we start removing that veil of skepticism and accept the fact that what we see is for real. Take a look at his numbers beginning in May and you’ll see.
Who Would Be An Upgrade Over Johan Camargo?
Seemingly every time I mention potential upgrades for Atlanta, third base comes up as a position of need. Whether it be by platoon or a new starter in general, the numbers show this to be unnecessary. In terms of overall fWAR (the FanGraphs version of WAR), Camargo ranks dead in the middle at 16th. While that may not be Mike Trout or Nolan Arenado, it’s certainly nothing to sneeze at. Of the 15 players in front of Camargo, only one player fits as both available, and an upgrade: Eduardo Escobar.
Platoon Johan Camargo and Someone?
As far as tying to find a platoon partner, Mike Moustakas is the name most bandied about. however, it makes little sense. It’s true that Camargo is better against LHP than he is against RHP. Against righties, he places in the top 10 in every major category aside from OBP (where he is 11th). This doesn’t mean Moustakas is an upgrade. Take a look at a comparison of the two and you’ll see that, despite Moustakas having the reputation of the better hitter against righties, Camargo actually leads Moose in every category except Slugging, ISO, and OPS from May onward.
And, as we see from the fWAR chart above, Camargo and Moustakas have posted the same fWAR so far this season. But, Camargo has done it in fewer plate appearances. John Camargo is posting a 3.4 fWAR per 600 Plate appearances, compared to 2.4 fWAR per 600 Plate Appearances for Moustakas. With Camargo, you are essentially getting the same production offensively, while adding better defense and versatility. So rather than trade away potential value, the best course seems to be to avoid adding Moustakas and his potential pitfalls entirely.
Is An Upgrade from Johan Camargo Necessary?
So how is it that a player tied with Freddie Freeman for the team lead in homers since May 29th can constantly show up on people’s positional improvements lists as someone the Braves can upgrade? It is the fallacy of perception. Preconceived consensus on Camargo was that he would simply be a defensive replacement at the major league level, and that only due to his howitzer of an arm. It’s the same reason Dansby Swanson can continue to struggle to swing the bat at a replacement level and still keep the faith of the fan and scouting community. Yes, there are better players out there. Yes, more than likely Johan Camargo is simply holding down the fort until Austin Riley is ready. Make no mistake, though – Johan Camargo is no afterthought. If you need proof, look no further than this season compared to last. He has cut his strikeout rate down by more than a full point, while also raising his walk rate by almost eight percentage points. His OBP is up 24 points, his wOBA 11, and he is running a BABIP 71 points lower than last season.
Johan Camargo is just 24 years old. He is still far from a finished product. His progress this season has been remarkable, and there are no signs of it slowing down. It’s time for us to stop thinking of him as merely a placeholder for Austin Riley. It is time to stop thinking of him as a weak link, or a position in need of upgrading. Most of all, it’s time we start giving Johan Camargo his due, rather than relegating him to an afterthought.
the dumbest thing the braves could ever do is trade for moustakas …number 1 it would create a platoon situation with carmargo and flaherty and culberson and number 2 it would block Austin Riley from being promoted in 2019
I totally concur. There’s no one available that offers a substantial upgrade over Camargos numbers. He deserves the shot at finishing out the year.
You don’t have to wipe out Camargo to improve the infield. I have been arguing all over the place that picking up a versatile power hitter like Asdrubal Cabrera would allow us to have essentially 4 starters for 3 IF positions and a really good rotation could be worked out. And that would also give us depth in the case of injury. Further it would not block anyone next year (neither would Moose as he only has an ungodly expensive option for 2019).
Moose would hurt more than help. He has power, but he struggles with contact and doesnt get on base. Plus he wouldnt be used in a platoon. Cabrera is an interesting case as hes completely changed his profile as hes aged. He started as a very strong defensive ss with little impact at the plate. Now hes done a 180 and become an impact bat with subpar defense. Hed be a great depth piece however, and someone I could stomach a platoon with
Everyone just loves to praise Swanson. He’s an average player, I like him but he’s not the answer at short IMO. Move Camargo to SS and trade for another bat like Moose or Castellanos. I’m tired of everyone thinking dansby Swanson is the next coming of Jeter. He can’t swing it.
This wasnt I tended to be a hit piece on dansby. Hes I effective offensively right now, but hes far and away the best ss on the team, and that adds a ton of value. Part of the reason camargo is able to be so valuable is BECAUSE hes at 3rd. Runs saved are runs you dont have to score. So while I in no way think camargo needs to be upgraded, I’m also not advocating replacing dansby without adding an adequate defensive ss. Especially with the amount of young, impressionable arma we have
*ineffective
I get what you’re saying but Camargo is a great defender I honestly think he would be the same if not better option at short than Dansby. Dansby is a good player but he might be holding this team back, along with Ender. But priority for the deadline has got to be controllable pitching. We need bullpen help BAD. We also need at least one more starter. Love the article though, Im glad someone is giving Camargo the credit he deserves.
Platoon? Dansby is hitting .212 against lefties. If the moose is rented, if platoon is thought about by Snit, SS makes more sense BA and production wise.
Only problem there is assuming moose would be used as a platoon player. Hes not viewed that way around the league. There are maybe 3 managers that would correctly use moose and ours isnt one of them. Also, aside from pure power, moose’s numbers against RHP arent stellar at all. Hes what I call “more name than game”
Nice analysis. Another way of saying it is that he just might be an exception to the reversion to the mean rule.
He actually did revert to the mean. His babip last year was unsustainable. So he changed his offensive approach, started being more selective at the plate, and incorporated a high leg kick to add more power to his arsenal. It’s a great look at a young player adjusting to the league before it could fully adjust to him
Love Camargo. His swagger is as good as that of Albies!!
That’s another element to it as well. He, ronnie, and oz all have a certain flair and a certain charisma to them. And while acuña and ozzie have substantially higher ceilings, its camargo who is the most consistent of the 3
Jason, it wouldn’t block Riley. Moustakas has an option year for 2019; if the Braves felt Riley was ready, they would simply decline the option.
The platoon argument was addressed in Dylan’s article. I don’t think getting Moustakas would be “the dumbest thing the braves could ever do”. But I also don’t see it as a pressing need. The benefit to getting him would be that it would allow Camargo to effectively move around the diamond, giving days off to 3B, SS, 2B, and LF. He gets to play regularly, so his bat isn’t missed, and everybody stays fresh and rested for the playoff run.
But, that’s a luxury, and in no way a necessity.
Leave this yound Bravo alone, he’s been clutch, with room to grow, if anything get another starting pitcher and bull pin help, we have lost about 8 to nine games just by lossing leads. And if Teran keeps being inconsistent, get rid of him for some assets.
Once Machado was off the market, it was all over for starting bats worth looking at prior to the deadline. The lineup we have right now is exactly what we should roll with for the remainder of the season.
However, our bench is a joke, and our bullpen depth is even more so. AA is no doubt looking to change that.