Happy World Series Game 1 Day! Go baseball!
Last off-season I wrote that the Braves top offseason priority was trading Matt Kemp, an item that by last December new general manager Alex Anthopoulos had ticked off the to-do list. What wasn’t expected was that Anthopoulous would make almost no other significant acquisitions or trades last off-season to get a better understanding of the organization and the quality of its wealth of young players. Contributing factors for this may have also been stretching the payroll to take on money to front-load the hit of Matt Kemp‘s passing through the Braves and to stay within MLB debt rules and pay down the significant stadium-related debt the team owed, but nevertheless it was an impressive display of self-discipline from Anthopoulos; most new GMs would be eager to affix a large and public stamp to the roster. Instead Anthopoulos worked around the edges, acquiring supporting pieces like outfielder Preston Tucker and reliever Shane Carle, and proceeded to begin a mostly under-the-hood overhaul of the Braves analytic and player development departments.
At the trading deadline, Anthopoulos would work quickly and creatively to get help for an exhausted pitching staff in the form of Kevin Gausman, Brad Brach, and Jonny Venters. All three would play significant roles in securing the division down the stretch, and Anthopoulos managed to acquire them without expending any the top 10 prospects in his system or add significant payroll. Anthopoulous would also attempt to bolster the bench with outfielder Adam Duvall and Lucas Duda.
The team rewarded him and the city with a divisional title and the first playoff games in the history of SunTrust Park and unlike last season, the offseason priorities for the team will be more about addition by addition rather than addition by subtraction.
Well, That’s Great. Now What?
The Phillies, Nationals, and Mets aren’t going to take the Braves climbing back to the pinnacle of the division lying down. The Phillies have emerged from their own rebuild and was the Braves chief challenger most of the season. Even if they lose outfielder Bryan Harper, the Nationals will have a strong offense and a rotation headed by two perennial Cy Young Award candidates. The Mets have two Cy Young candidates of their own and will return outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to their line-up. None of these teams will be particularly interested in front row seats to another Atlanta NL East coronation. And while winning the first divisional crown since 2013 was a great start to what will hopefully be a long and successful run for Atlanta, we saw clearly that the Braves just didn’t quite stack up with elite playoff teams, going 13-27 against fellow playoff teams (including the postseason).
The Braves will need to improve, and some of that could be organic improvement as in 2018, with young players continuing their major league development. But with an estimated $30-60 million available (depending on which beat writer you believe) under the payroll and a ton of high-value potential trade pieces, the Braves will certainly look to add assets to the major league squad from outside the organization.
The question is where to add. As currently constructed, the Braves look to be settled at first base with Freddie Freeman, second base with Ozzie Albies, third base with Johan Camargo and/or top position player prospect Austin Riley, and two of the three outfield positions with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ender Inciarte. The rotation has Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Julio Teheran, and Gausman plus another two rotations-worth of high-caliber near-majors young pitchers. The high-leverage core of the bullpen should remain in place with A.J. Minter, Arodys Vizcaino, and Venters. Finally, we have back-up catcher set with the return of Tyler Flowers for at least one more season. The team has Dansby Swanson at shortstop, and while he hasn’t progressed significantly offensively with the bat, he has made himself a quality defensive player that is valued by the organization.
Priority 1: Starting Catcher
A look at the top 5 FanGraphs WAR leaders at catcher for 2018 show four of the top potential targets for Atlanta:
- J.T. Realmuto, MIA – 4.8
- Yasmani Grandal, LAD – 3.6
- Francisco Cervelli, PIT – 3.3
- Willson Contreras, CHC – 2.6
- Wilson Ramos, PHI – 2.4
Realmuto and Cervelli would be trade candidates, while Grandal and Ramos would be available as free agents. All of these players would upgrade the position, and all would be younger than the player they would replace, Kurt Suzuki.
J.T. Realmuto
J.T. Realmuto owns a 115 wRC+ from 2016-18 and had his best offensive season last season while entering his prime at age 27. Realmuto would be under control for the next two seasons through the arbitration process. He is above average in most defensive skills except pitch framing, which he’s only average. Nevertheless, he would be the premiere catching option. Miami has made noises about trying to extend Realmuto, but until they do he should be considered on the market. When approached by Atlanta last offseason, Miami reportedly requested a package headed by outfielder Ronald Acuna. The Nationals also have been heavily interested in Realmuto, but Miami is rumored to have demanded both Juan Soto and Victor Robles. In other words, there may be a deal to be had, but it will likely be painful.
Yasmani Grandal
The Braves may be tempted to go the free agent route and make a play for Yasmani Grandal instead. Grandal was essentially just as good at the plate in 2018 as Realmuto, though they go about their business in different ways. Grandal has more power and walks more, while Realmuto makes more contact and strikes out less. Grandal has been a top-3 pitch-framer during his time with the Dodgers, though his other defensive skills lag behind Realmuto, getting exposed in the playoffs. Grandal is a switch-hitter while Realmuto only hits right-handed, but will also turn 30 next month. The bidding is expected to be fierce for Grandal, with the Dodgers and Nationals likely showing interest, and I wouldn’t expect him to go for less than the 5 year/$85 million contract that the Braves wouldn’t give Brian McCann five years ago.
Francisco Cervelli
Francisco Cervelli is coming off a career offensive season with the Pirates at age 32, his 125 wRC+ besting even Realmuto and Grandal. On the downside however, Cervelli missed a month this season with a concussion and related setbacks. With one season left on his contract at $11.5 million, the Pirates seem likely to make Cervelli available, especially with the emergence of 27-year-old Elias Diaz as a capable replacement. When healthy, Cervelli is one of the better defensive catchers in the game as well, and he could be a relative bargain in terms of what the Braves would have to surrender in a trade compared to what the Marlins are likely to demand for Realmuto.
Wilson Ramos
Wilson Ramos is another free agent and he should be familiar to most Braves fans after having a 5-year stint with the Nationals earlier this decade and playing for the Phillies down the stretch in 2018. The 31-year-old Ramos had his best offensive season in three years, with a 131 wRC+ that bests the other three candidates listed above. Like Cervelli however, he is coming off an injury-plagued season, only Ramos’s follows up an injury-plagued 2017 too. Defensively he grades as an average-to-above average defender for all skills. While he will assuredly get a raise over the 2 year/$12.5 million contract he signed with Tampa Bay in 2017, it will no doubt be considerably less and of fewer seasons than what Grandal will eventually sign for.
If the Braves elect to go with an even more economical route, they could simply re-sign 35-year-old Kurt Suzuki. He and Flowers have proven to be a very good tandem these last two seasons. That said, it feels like the specter of A.J. Pierzynski may be making his presence felt, another catcher coming off a good offensive season at an relatively advanced aged and eager to return to the organization. My guess is that that team is prepared to move on and to make catcher a significant positional upgrade for at least the short-term.
Prediction: With big-spenders like the Dodgers, Nationals, Yankees, and Red Sox all also likely looking to upgrade the catcher position, it seems somewhat unlikely the Braves would be the top bidder for Grandal or Ramos. Realmuto would be a huge win for Atlanta, but if the Marlins are still looking for multiple top-5 prospects, I think the Braves will turn to the Pirates and pry loose Francisco Cervelli.
Priority 2: Starting Outfielder
Unlike catcher, the number of potentially available starting outfielders is huge and I won’t try to list all the possibilities. However, there is a 20-ton elephant in this room by the name of Bryce Harper. Let me put this bluntly: Bryce Harper will not sign a contract with the Atlanta Braves. The Braves are not the kind of team to award a record-setting contract to any player, and Alex Anthopoulos is not the kind of general manager to make a push to have that kind of contract handcuffing him in the future. As talented as Harper undeniably is, a mid-market team with the Braves current cashflow would be foolish to tie up that much payroll into one player, regardless of how much financial room the team has this season. Anthopoulos has already essentially ruled him and his fellow talented free agent Manny Machado out.
Fortunately, there’s other options that can bulwark the Braves.
Michael Brantley
Cleveland’s Michael Brantley finished 2018 with 3.5 fWAR, equaling Bryce Harper for the year. Brantley is a throwback hitter, a guy who regularly makes contact, seldomly strikes out, and sprays the ball to all fields. In short, he’s a Kevin Seitzer-style player with power. The downside with Brantley is a long injury history. His 143 games players in 2018 was his highest total since 2014, with a bad shoulder injury limiting him to only 11 games total in 2016 and a sprained ankle holding him to 90 games in 2017. That shoulder injury also helps limit Brantley, who has never been a superlative fielder, to left field. Brantley will also turn 32 during the 2019 season. The Braves will and should do their due diligence on Brantley, but in the end I suspect an American League team who can DH him regularly will be the high bidder.
A.J. Pollock
Rumors are that when Arizona and Atlanta first engaged in trade talks for right-hander Shelby Miller, the Braves went hard after outfielder A.J. Pollock, who was coming off an All-Star season. The Diamondbacks were reluctant to trade a player they figured was emerging into stardom and eventually the clubs compromised on the package that included Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson. Three years later, the Braves have another opportunity to add the talented outfielder. It’s likely Pollock will command the second-highest contract among outfielders in this year’s free-agent market as good defensive centerfielders who also launch 20+ home runs and can steal 20+ bases a year are exceedingly rare. Like Brantley however, a long injury history may somewhat constrain his market, and his on-base rate, which was a career high .367 in 2015, has been .330 or lower his last three seasons. Pollock will be 31 years old on Opening Day.
Austin Riley
Austin Riley is the top position player prospect in the Braves system and is on the cusp of the major leagues. He is also by trade a third baseman. This has never deterred the Braves in the past, and I’m old enough to remember the spring training prospect battle between shortstop Chipper Jones, first baseman Ryan Klesko, and catcher Javy Lopez for the starting left field job on the 1994 Braves in the wake of an unexpected off-season injury to Ron Gant. Jones won that battle, but ended up missing the season after tearing up his knee on a play at first base in a Grapefruit League game, thus giving the world Ryan Klesko: Professional Outfielder. Riley is much more athletic than Klesko was and has a cannon arm that could translate well to right field, allowing Ronald Acuña Jr. to roam the more spacious left field at SunTrust Park.
Of course, this would be the “cheap” option, and with fans fired up at the prospect of the Braves being buyers this offseason, many would likely be upset that the Braves go with an internal option, no matter how sensible. For the record, the Braves have also given no indication that they intend to do anything but play Riley at third base, where he has developed into a defensive asset.
Clint Frazier
In the “nice problem to have” category, the Yankees only have three outfield spots to play… let me count real quick… 42 good outfielders. With the Aarons Judge and Hicks locked into two of those spots and slugger Giancarlo Stanton taking up the DH mantle, that leaves only one spot for the other outfielders that include Brett Gardner and forgotten $21 million-a-year man Jacoby Ellsbury, who should return from hip surgery for 2019. Oh, also the Yankees are considered a favorite to sign Bryce Harper. Clint Frazier was a prize prospect that got significant playing time in 2017 but missed chunks of the 2018 season with concussion-related injuries. When he was in the line-up for AAA Scranton however, he hit .311/.389/.574 and he just turned 24 years old. He’s a prime buy-low candidate for a bounce-back season.
Shin-Soo Choo
Former Reds star Shin-Soo Choo signed a huge contract with the Texas Rangers before the 2014 season but has mostly been a disappointment, putting up near-replacement level value in three of the five seasons since then. The other two seasons were very good however, and last season at the age of 36 he made his first All-Star game. Choo is owed $21 million over each of the next two seasons, but the Rangers are engaged in an rebuild and should want to help pay off that salary for a better prospect haul. Choo would provide an excellent on-base threat, allowing Acuña to move to the #2 spot in the order between Choo and Freeman. That could potentially be exciting.
Prediction: This is only the tip of the iceberg of options for Atlanta, so my prediction is that the Braves will make none of these moves and go in a different direction all together.
Priority 3: Bullpen Depth
On the surface, the Braves bullpen already looks pretty strong for 2018, with high-leverage relievers A.J. Minter and Arodys Vizcaino returning, bolstered by lefty specialist Jonny Venters, veteran Darren O’Day, and significant 2018 rookies like Jesse Biddle, Chad Sobotka, and Dan Winkler. Combine those with young starting pitchers the Braves may try to have get their feet wet in the bullpen and it could be argued the Braves don’t need to make a move here.
I think it’s likely the Braves make at least one move for the bullpen however to add another experienced high-leverage reliever to the arsenal to help deepen the whole unit. Like with the outfielders, the number of options is huge between free agency and trades. One option that I don’t believe is on the table however is a return for Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel to the Braves. Kimbrel will likely command an annual salary near $20 million a year, breaking the reliever record set by Aroldis Chapman in 2017. Just as the Braves are unlikely to set any contract records with Harper, don’t expect the Braves to dole out record-breaking guaranteed money to a reliever, even one beloved by the fans as much as Kimbrel.
Brad Brach
To paraphrase Dorothy Gale, when you’re looking for something you should first look in your own backyard. Brad Brach did yeoman’s work for Atlanta after the trade that brought him over from Baltimore. The 32-year-old is coming of his worst year after a string of quality seasons, though he pitched much better for the Braves. If they think they’ve unlocked something in Brach, there’s no reason for the Braves not to bring him back.
Kelvin Herrera
The former Royals closer was enjoying a splendid season with Kansas City when he was traded in early July to Washington. Things didn’t go well for either Herrera or the Nationals, and Herrera ended his season early with a torn ligament in his foot. Herrera was set up for a big payday before that setback, and if he’s willing to take a short pillow contract to rebuild value, the Braves would be a candidate to swoop in for the experienced 29-year-old closer.
Adam Warren
Adam Warren had been a solid middle reliever for the Yankees for 7 years before they unceremoniously sent him to Seattle mid-season for international bonus pool room after a back injury. Warren looked healthy for Seattle, and a career-low 22 innings pitched could help keep his market cost reasonable.
Tony Watson
While it seems unlikely the big-money San Francisco Giants would ever embark on a full tear-down-and-rebuild strategy, they clearly are at a crossroads with questions about Buster Posey‘s health, big holes in their outfield and starting rotation, and a less than robust farm system. One thing they could do is flip Tony Watson, the veteran left-hander signed to a reasonable two-year free agent contract last offseason. Watson responded by having a typical Tony Watson season of quiet competence.
Prediction: Again, probably none of the above. Even though relievers are playing an increasingly important role in how teams are constructed and compete, they still remain the most fungible assets teams have. It’s quite possible the Braves could pick up a relief pitcher in conjunction with another trade. For example, the Pirates have stocked with interesting relief pitchers, any of whom could be an add-on to a Francisco Cervelli deal.
Priority 4: Starting Pitcher
You don’t have to go far into any Braves social media site to see fans demanding that the Braves go to the market this off-season and get a “true ace”. While having a rotation-defining #1 starter on the order of Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, or Jacob deGrom would certainly be great, it seems unlikely that a pitcher of that caliber will be available. In fact, Mike Foltynewicz was 17th in the major in fWAR among pitchers, and another step up could put him at or near to that lofty performance standard anyway just as he enters his prime seasons at the age of 27.
That said, a sober look at the Braves rotation shows some potential weaknesses for a team that will have playoff aspirations. Behind Foltynewicz are two veteran starters with mixed success over the last several years in Julio Teheran and Kevin Gausman and both are more comfortably cast in a 3rd/4th spot of a playoff rotation. Sean Newcomb gave cause for both hope and concern over the course of the season. No matter what happens, there will also be opportunities for young pitchers like Mike Soroka, Touki Toussaint, Max Fried, et cetera. Bringing in a more experienced starting pitcher to slide in that #2 spot in the rotation does make sense, even if the team thinks that “true ace” may develop organically from the crop of internal candidates.
Patrick Corbin
If Kershaw doesn’t opt out of his contract with Los Angeles, Arizona’s Patrick Corbin will likely be the most sought-after free agent pitcher on the market coming after the best season of his career in which he was finally all the way healthy after several injury-marred years. Expect the Braves to check in with Corbin, and if the Braves are unable or unwilling to make significant investments in the catcher or outfield positions Corbin could be the recipient of a chunk of Atlanta’s payroll space.
Charlie Morton
Way back in 2010, the Braves traded Charlie Morton along with two other players to the Pirates for All-Star Nate McLouth. That trade didn’t have the impact the Braves expected, and Morton has gone on to have an interesting career. A solid starter for Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, Morton’s strikeout rate has exploded since joining the Houston Astros in 2017. All things being equal, he would likely prefer to return to Houston, but coming toward the end of his career at age 34, he may look for one last strong payday on a contending team. Why not with the team that drafted him?
Dallas Keuchel
The other Astros started slated for free agency, Keuchel is a ground ball specialist who like Gausman could really benefit from pitching in front of the Braves elite infield defense. Keuchel will only be 30 years old on Opening Day and seems more likely than Morton to leave Houston in search of his first huge contract. His lack of strikeouts likely will keep his price tag lower than Corbin’s and he could more easily fit in the Braves plans if the team wants to spread the payroll room out to fill more roster holes.
Robbie Ray
While early reports of a potential Arizona sell-off may have been premature given their new three-year deal with infielder Eduardo Escobar, a re-tooling may still be in the works given the free agencies of Patrick Corbin and A.J. Polluck plus a large class of arbitration-eligible veterans. One of the later is left-hander Robbie Ray, who is coming off a down year after missing time with an oblique strain. He finished the season strong however and is one of the top strikeout lefties in the league.
Prediction: I’m going to say the Braves pick up a starter in a trade, and I like Ray as a strong possibility.
Priority 5: Bench Depth
Exacerbated by an ill-timed injury to Dansby Swanson, the Braves went into postseason with a severe bench depth deficiency, highlighted by having to carry third catcher Rene Rivera just so the team could use either Suzuki or Flowers as a pinch hitter if needed. Compared to the Dodgers, who could casually roll the likes of David Freese, Chris Taylor, or Matt Kemp to come into important late-game situations, the difference between a playoff-caliber team and a championship-caliber team was made stark. Closing that gap should be a priority for the team, though some of this may occur organically.
Johan Camargo
Speaking of organic depth improvement, Johan Camargo exceeded expectations when given the opportunity to play everyday at third base. With Austin Riley close to making his debut, the team has the opportunity to utilize Camargo versatility more by putting him in the long-sought but never-consummated Ben Zobrist-style multi-positional role. Camargo could play nearly every day and allowing the likes of Riley, Swanson, and Albies planned days off to keep them fresh down the stretch of the grind that is the major league baseball season. Teamed with Charlie Culberson, the Braves would have infield depth that would be the envy of most every other team.
Marwin Gonzalez
One of the more sought-after free agent utility players will likely be free agent Marwin Gonzalez. Adept defensively at pretty much every position except pitcher and catcher, Gonzalez has blossomed with regular playing time over the last three seasons, and with the Astros needing to secure their starting and relief pitching, Gonzalez may be a luxury they can’t afford as he’ll try to cash in with his first free agent opportunity at the age of 30. Gonzalez could step in to be a regular at any position, and unlike Camargo and Riley he has plenty of experience in the outfield.
Curtis Granderson
The venerable Curtis Granderson is still a significant threat at the plate against right-handed pitching and has transitioned gracefully into the roll of part-time player and mentor. Going into his age 38 season, Granderson could be a perfect right-handed pinch hitter and spot starter on a young and talented team.
Lucas Duda
Duda will be turning 33 next season and the long-time Braves nemesis seemed to relish the part-time roll afforded to him down the stretch after the Braves traded for him. He’s a left-handed power bat that could spot start at first, but would most likely be the first option in late and close situations with a right-handed pitcher on the mound. If he would sign for an amount close to the $3.5 million level that the Royals acquired him for last season, the Braves should take a hard look at bringing him back.
Prediction: Gonzalez is the name on everybody’s lips, but look for Anthopoulos to be creative in building up bench depth. Like with relievers, part-time position players that could give the bench a boost could be an “add-on” with another trade. For example, getting Adam Frazier to go with Francisco Cervelli from the Pirates, or Derek Dietrich in addition to J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins.
I’ve been a Die Hard Braves Fan since 1982 (I was 10 years old growing up in Arkansas when I first started following The 1982 Braves on WTBS). I’ve been ‘hooked’ ever since (through THICK and THIN, lol).
This Braves team has not only A LOT of talent on The MLB Roster (ESPECIALLY young talent) but also A LOT of MILB high upside potential prospects who will be knocking on the door in the next year or two. Our GM, AA, will have A WEALTH of talent to choose from (whether to put into The Starting Rotation, The Bullpen, on The AAA Staff (to be there, on a moment’s notice; to be summoned up to Atlanta to fill a need in our Pitching Staff…….OR, even as ‘trade bait’).
I bring all this up, because I feel that The Braves have MORE than ENOUGH young/cheap/high upside Starting Pitching Talent…to BOTH build a potentially GREAT Starting 5 that can excel in BOTH The 2019 Season…AS WELL as potentially in The 2020 Season AND beyond. In other words, I see LITTLE NEED to bring in any ‘outside’ pitching talent. The Braves have what it takes to build a VERY STRONG BULLPEN in 2019 as well! Buying bullpen parts via Free Agency..is a VERY DICEY proposition! Given how variance plays a HUGE ROLE in how effective bullpen parts are in any given year (there are obviously ‘exceptions to the rule’..however ‘the exception to the rule DOES NOT make it ‘THE RULE”, lol)….I’d rather see The Braves put prospects who are not ready to be a starter..in our bullpen (as other teams have done with high upside prospects who eventually transition to The Starting Rotation in the next year or two).
Where I want to see The Braves SPEND MONEY..is addressing the lack of power in the middle of the lineup! A team CANNOT win playoff games…when 1. Nick “NOODLE BAT” Markakis is hitting cleanup (NO HOMERS in his last 177 regular season at-bats)….2. Tyler ‘batted .227 with ONLY 5 homers’ as your #5 hitter (as happened in Games 1 & 2 of The NLDS against The Dodgers…AS WELL as throughout a big chunk of The Regular Season).
It would be A BIG TIME WASTE…to ‘go cheap’ when it came to addressing the lack of middle of the order power. I’m SICK AND TIRED of hearing ‘uh….we need to save payroll flexibility when it comes to re-signing our CHEAP young prospects in 2019 and 2020….who in 2021 and beyond become MORE EXPENSIVE’. First of all…there is NO GUARANTEE that our best young prospects…will even be receptive to signing on a potential ‘team friendly’ contact extension.
However, what I DO KNOW…is that it would be MUCH EASIER to get our young prospects to possibly ‘buy into’ signing long term contract extensions with The Braves…IF we can GO HELL DEEP in The Playoffs YEAR AFTER YEAR! The Braves NEED some serious power in our lineup…..which can ONLY be address via The Free Agency Offseason (UNLESS AA wants to overpay with prospects via The Trade Market).
Keep our prospects (especially THE PLETHORA of young pitching prospects we have…to build BOTH a Rotation AND Bullpen (not only in 2019…but also in future years…when The Braves will still have prospects working their way up to possibly replace ‘potentially pricey’ arbitration eligible pitchers who arent exactly ‘worth what they will command via arbitration’ come 2021-2020 and beyond)!
Before addressing who I feel The Braves should go after….let’s take a look at what I feel are ‘The Locks’ to be on The Braves in 2019 (and their salaries/position).
1. Freddie Freeman….1st…..($21 mil)
2. Ozzie Albies……………2nd…($600k…pre-arbittation/one more year)
3. Dansby Swanson…SS….($600k….pre-arbitration/last year)
4. Johan Camargo…..utility ($600k…pre-arbitration/one more year)
5. Tyler Flowers………..C………($4 mil.)
6. Charlie Culberson…utility….($1..5 mil….1st year arbitration estimate…possible trade chip IF AA cant get that figure a little lower).
7. Ronald Acuna……RF…..($600k…..pre-arbitration/2 more years)
8. Ender Inciarte….CF……($5 mil.)
9. Michael Reed….OF….($600k….pre-arbitration/3 more years)
10. Mike Folty…..SP…… ($6 mil….2nd year arbitration/2 more years before Free Agency)
11. Sean Newcomb….SP ($600k….pre-arbitration/1 more year)
12. Kevin Gausmann…SP ($9 mil….1 more year before Free Agency….could be traded IF he wants ‘too much’. He could sign some type of 2 year contract that pays him something like $20 mil over 2 years…kind of like how The Braves did with Jason Heyward when he was 2 years away from Free Agency).
13. #4 starter……SP………($600k….pre-arbitration/3 years away….the last 2 spots of The Rotation, will come from our PLETHORA of young pitching prospects who stand out/earn one of those 2 spots during Spring Training 2019)
14. #5 starter…….SP……..($600k…..pre-arbitration/3 years away….read #13’s prediction).
15. Darren O’Day…..RP….($9 mil. last year before becoming a Free Agent. While he’s coming back from a hamstring injury…at least it isnt arm related. Prior to his injury, he’s a VERY EFFECTIVE late inning option. If AA didnt have to absorb his 2019 salary in order to get Gausmann WITHOUT having to sacrifice any of our top pitching prospects…I would LOVE to see AA go after Craig Kimbrel. However, I dont see ANY MLB team taking a flyer on O’Day WITHOUT seeing him pitch meaningful games first. So The Braves are pretty much stuck with O’Day for 2019…meaning that he’s our ‘defacto closer’ for 2019).
16. Adrodys Vizcaino…..RP……..($5 mil….last year before Free Agency. Vizcaino will help form a ‘bullpen-by-committee’ likely approach by Braves Management for 2019).
17. AJ Minter……RP……..($600k……pre-arbitration/2 more years. He’ll be the main lefty come closing time…part of what I believe will be a 3-headed-bullpen-by-committee-closer).
18. Dan Winkler….RP…..($1.5 mil…..arbitration/1 more year before Free Agency. Great bullpen arm. Need to not overuse him in 2019).
19. Johnny Venters….RP…..($1.5 mil…..arbitration/1 more year before Free Agency. Another good BP arm. Also need to not overuse him in 2019).
20. Max Fried….RP……($600k….pre-arbitration/2 more years. A lefty who can BOTH pitch multiple innings out of the bullpen/get tough lefties out in high leverage situations).
21. Chad Sobotka…..RP…..($600k…..pre-arbitration/3 more years. Tough on righties who can throw gas. Hopefully he’ll continue to develop).
22. Bullpen piece….RP….($600k….pre-arbitration/3 more years. The Braves have A PLEHTORA of options to fill the long relief role/spot starter-type to pitch on short notice/if one of our starters gets knocked out in the first couple of innings. Also, if any of our above relief pitchers OR starters get hurt….AAA will have A PLETHORA of options to turn to who can come up and fill those roles)!
I understand that BOTH Julio Teheran (at $11 mil for 2019 with a $1 mil 2020 buyout/$12 mil 2020 salary) and Adam Duval (arbitration eligible/$3 mil salary estimate) are on The Books for 2019. However I feel that there is NO WAY that Teheran doesnt get traded in the offseason (The Braves have cheaper/more talented options coming up than Teheran…..however Teheran will have value for other teams, given the contracts routinely signed by BUMS who are worse than Teheran, lol. I dont expect The Braves to get much in return for Teheran….what’s important…is that his $11 mil 2019 salary is REMOVED from the books). Also, Duval is an obvious DFA candidate. He simply LOST IT (reminds me of what happened to Austin Kearns years ago).
Assuming that AA takes my advice on trading Teheran/DFAing Duval…that would leave The 2019 Braves needing 1. a starting catcher (Flowers is the backup)…2. A starting Left Fielder (bye-bye Nick ‘NOODLE/CUCKOLD BAT” Markakis)…3. A 3rd baseman (Camargo should be our ‘super-sub/Ben Zobrist-type’ bench player for 2019).
My contention is that The Braves should have NO PROBLEM with a $150 mil Opening Day Payroll (with the option of increasing it by another $10-$15 mil SHOULD a need arise by The July 2019 Trade Deadline). I’m SICK AND TIRED of hearing how ‘the max’ Opening Day Payroll was $122 mil a year ago (implying that The Braves ‘only’ have around $30-$35 mil available to add to the current payroll)!
According to my math….The 5 Starting pitchers of Folty/Newcomb/Gausmann/4th/5th starters coming from our PLETHORA of high upside pitching prospects…will total $16.9 mil in 2019.
The 8 man bullpen of O’Day/Vizcaino/Minter/Winkler/Venters/Sobotka/Fried/Long-Relief-Type from our PLETHORA of high upside young pitching talent….will total $19.4 mil in 2019.
The 4 man Bench of Camargo/Flowers/Culberson/Reed…..will total $6.7 mil in 2019.
The current 5 man Starting Lineup of Freeman/Albies/Swanson/Inciarte/Acuna……will total $27.8 mil.
Those 22 positions….will total $70.8 mil….leaving $79.2 mil to fill the holes that Left Field/3rd base/Catcher presents.
If AA feels that Austin Riley is THE FUTURE…then The Braves should pencil him in as our Opening Day 3rd baseman/#5 or #6 hitter. His power from the right side would be HELLA WELCOME in our lineup.
However, if AA has ‘question marks’ concerning Riley…then AA should package Riley (along with one or two of our ‘2nd tier’ starting pitching prospects…Realmuto is only 2 years away from Free Agency….The Marlins ARE NOT going to get ‘a king’s ransom’ for Realmuto, lol. Riley has a lot of power…and is HELLA CHEAP for the next 3 years).
So either The Braves trade for Realmuto by sacrificing Riley/a couple of others (he’s in line to get a raise to around $6 mil in 2019)…..which would leave The Braves with around $73.1 mil to fill Left Field/3rd base…..OR…..The Braves keep Riley as our 2019 Opening Day 3rd Baseman (he’ll only be paid $600k)…which would leave The Braves with $78.6 mil to fill Left Field/Catcher.
If we trade for Realmuto….I would LOVE to see The Braves use that $73.1 mil…to make DUAL OFFERS to BOTH Manny Machado AND Bryce Harper (offering $35-$40 mil type deals to EACH of them)! If each were to agree to a $35 mil a year type deals with The Braves…that would only put The 2019 Opening Day Payroll at $146.9 mil (look,
Sun Trust Field/the surrounding Battery Properties are A PRINTING PRESS OF DOLLARS for The Braves Organization (with even more development in 2019 and beyond). Also, REGULARLY HOSTING Playoff Games at Sun Trust…for MULTIPLE ROUNDS….will also SIGNIFICANTLY add to team revenue. Also, with the added STAR ATTRACTION of Machado and Harper to The Braves….The Braves can charge more for THE RICH PEOPLE”s seats/suites at Sun Trust. If it were to take $40 mil a year to sign BOTH Machado and Harper…then The Braves should DO IT IN A HEARTBEAT. That would give The Braves a 2019 Opening Day Payroll of $156.9 mil (with $ left over to add at The July Trade Deadline should a need arise).
Depending on how much it would take to sign Machado and Harper (2019 Opening Day Payroll of between $146.9 mil-$156.9 mil)….just look at what this 2019 Starting Lineup would look like:
1. Acuna……RF
2. Albies……2nd
3. Freeman….1st
4. Machado….3rd
5. Harper…..LF
6. Realmuto…C
7. Inciarte…..CF
8. Swanson….SS
Johan Camargo would be The Super Sub to give a number of our players a day off each week (he would be fresher as well). Also, if Albies were to struggle in 2019….Snitker could put Realmuto in the #2 hole and Albies in the #6 hole. Regardless…that would be A POWERFUL Lineup….with NO ONE over 28 years old!
Not only is that a powerful offense…but also very good defensive lineup! This lineup could stay together for a number of years!
A good offense/defense….would give our Pitching Staff time to develop! I would rather AA stay away from acquiring an ‘Ace’ like deGroom…because their salaries would rise significantly (also because he’s only 2 years away from Free Agency). The Braves have LOADS of high upside starting pitching talent….why not give the likes of Mike Soroka, Touki Tousiant, Kyle Wright, Bryce Wilson, Joey Wentz and Ian Anderson (among others) a chance to be Long Term Aces for The Braves (especially at cheap prices while The Braves are paying the likes of Machado, Harper and Freeman lots of money)?
I’m sure that Machado and Harper would only sign with opt outs after years #3-#4 (which would be IDEAL for The Braves…ESPECIALLY if both were to really HIT during those years)…..giving both players another chance for a big payday before they are 30 years old (which again, would be ideal for The Braves…because hopefully by then we’ll have players like Christian Pache and other hitters that we drafted in 2018 and hopefully in 2019…who will be ready to play/fill in for those players….AS players like Albies and Acuna get ready for ‘big payday extension offers’ by The Braves.
OR…..if The Braves were to keep Riley at 3rd…..then we’d have $78.6 mil to address left field/catcher….which 1. offering $35-$40 mil a year offer to Bryce Harper….and 2. Sign Yasmani Grandal to a $18-$20 mil a year type deal. That would leave The Braves with a 2019 Opening Day Payroll of between $124.4 mil and $131.4 mil.
Our 2019 Opening Day Lineup would be the following:
1. Acuna….RF
2. Albies….2nd
3. Freeman….1st
4. Riley……3rd
5. Harper….LF
6. Grandal…C
7. Inciarte….CF
8. Swanson….SS
I would bat Riley 4th (even though he’s a rookie)….because he has power AND because it would split up Freddie and Harper (both left handed hitters). In other words, having Riley hitting in between Freddie and Harper….would eliminate opposing managers from bringing in a tough lefty to face BOTH Freddie AND Harper…WITHOUT having to face a power righty bat like Riley.
Personally…..I like the first option (trading for Realmuto….going ALL-IN by signing BOTH Harper AND Machado). The Braves would be SERIOUS CONTENDERS for years to come with that lineup! If a team is making The Playoffs EVERY YEAR…..the payroll CANNOT stay the same. It HAS to go up! The young talent that The Braves have……would keep our pitching costs low (prime example….there’s a chance that Gausmann, no matter how good he pitches in 2019…..will be a trade candidate next offseason…because The Braves have A PLETHORA of young, high upside Starting Pitching talent coming up The System! Heck, Gausmann may end up being traded by The July 2019 Trade Deadline….IF some of our AAA pitching studs ‘force the issue’. Why give Gausmann a raise on his already $9 mil 2019 Salary…IF a young prospect has the potential to pitch BETTER? That move there…is how money can be trimmed from The 2020 Payroll!
Other moves (whether after 2019 or 2020) would be to eventually trade Folty and Newcomb. By Opening Day 2021…I feel that the following will be our Opening Day Starting 5:
1. Mike Soroka…….($600k…could be a Super 2 IF he makes The 2019 Opening Day Roster. Regardless, he could very well be our ACE by then)
2. Touki Tousiant….($600k…..he’ll be in his last pre-arbitration year)
3. Kyle Wright……….($600k……same as Touki)
4. Ian Anderson……($600k…..he may not come up until sometime in late in 2019 or 2020..meaning that he’ll still be several years away from arbitration. Regardless, he has Ace-like potential)
5. Joey Wentz……($600k……same as Anderson. While not quite the upside as Anderson/Soroka…he’ll be a TOUGH lefty for opponents to face).
I know that it sounds CRAZY…however it is not impossible to imagine that THE ABOVE/Potential 2021 Starting Rotation…..leading The Braves to The 2021 Playoffs (in addition to being HELLA CHEAP)! That’s why AA SHOULD NOT trade any of our talented pitching prospects! That’s not even including the likes of Bryce Wilson, Patrick Weigel, Kyle Muller and Luis Gohara (2019 will be important for him….he has A TERRIBLE 2018…due to family deaths/issues..as well as injury issues. If he can live up to his potential….The Braves will have SICK depth).
It would be A SHAME…if The Braves decided to ‘nickel and dime’ the next few years……we have TOO MUCH CHEAP high upside talent….to NOT GO FOR IT during The 2018 Free Agent Offseason!
Great, thanks for reading!
When you have time, can you please tell me what you think of my ‘proposed’ Braves offseason moves? I feel that it is FAR from unreasonable to expect The Braves to increase The 2019 Payroll to $150 mil-ish…GIVEN 1. The INCREASED revenues from BOTH Sun Trust Field AND the surrounding Battery Properties. 2. The lack of power that the middle of the lineup has….which can be addressed via Free Agency BECAUSE of THE PLETHORA of cheap, pre-arbitration eligible young players that fills The Braves Roster.
I made a DETAILED case for how my proposed moves can fit in BOTH The 2019 Payroll AND future payrolls.
Your proposals are just as probable and/or unlikely as any other.
I will say that while it’s possible the payroll will go up as much as you say, I kind of doubt it. There are increased revenues which will give the payroll a little bump, but the Braves still have to pay down financing debt or run afoul of MLB policy.
Also, I find your use of “cuckold” to be creepy and off-putting.
Thanks.
I’ll admit, I allowed my DISGUST with Snitker keeping Markakis in the cleanup spot after it became apparent that his his hot streak to start The 2019 Season ENDED on May 8th…to compel me to ‘go there’ with The ‘cuckold’ remark about Markakis, lol!
From May 9th to the end of the season, Markakis ONLY hit 7 homers in his last 524 at-bats. In his last 177 at bats..he hit ZERO HOMERS! Yet, freaking Snitker kept Markakis in the cleanup spot (Markakis ONLY went 1-14, his only hit a single in The NLDS against The Dodgers!).
I want NO PART of re-signing a soon to be 35 year old NON-HOMER hitting Markakis who is AS SLOW AS MOLASSES in the outfield (he couldnt get to a number of foul popups during The NLDS).
Also, while I feel that The Braves SHOULD have no problem with increasing their 2019 payroll to $150 mil-ish…..I recognize that they will probably not do it (Liberty wants to pocket the profits that came from moving The Braves to Sun Trust Field…and are going to use ‘paying the debt’ as a convenient excuse to NOT increase the payroll in a manner that TAKES ADVANTAGE of their PLETHORA of cheap, pre-arbitration players during the next few years).
I feel that The Braves can BOTH afford to field a $150 mil-ish payroll in 2019 (and rising each year in $10-$15 mil increments each year) AND pay down a proper amount of the debt service each year. It’s up to Braves Management to decide how much they really want to win/go deep in The Playoffs each year. My ‘plan’ addresses that desire!