Welcome to the second of five posts revealing the latest OFR Top 50 Braves Prospects. With one notable exception, the players on this segment of the list are organizational veterans and have been on lists like this for some time, and several have had some of the prospect shine rub off of their resumes. I have been joined in this segment by OFR colleague Matt Chrietzberg.
Also in this series:
Atlanta Braves Top 50 Prospects: #50-41
Atlanta Braves Top 50 Prospects: #21-30
Atlanta Braves Top 50 Prospects: #11-20
Atlanta Braves Top 50 Prospects: #1-10
40. Justin Dean, OF
Age: 21 | Bats: R
.284/.381/.412 | 121 wRC+ | 1 HR | 16 SB | 11.7% BB | 21.0% K
Current Assignment: A Rome
Acquired: Drafted, 17th Round – 2018
Mid-Season 2018 OFR Ranking: N/A
The fourth and final 2018 draft pick on this section of the list that stands shorter than six feet, Dean impressed with his all-round game, playing a strong enough center field to keep the likes of Andrew Moritz and Trey Harris, two pretty good centerfielders in their own right, to the corners. Dean has very strong hands and good bat speed and has a solid all-fields approach. While the swing isn’t such that one would expect a lot of over-the-fence power, it would not surprise me if he started to alter the swing to tap into what could be at least average raw power.
Most of Dean’s success came with Danville, and while he played well with Rome he still has some work to do. If Jeremy Fernandez starts the season in Rome, it will be interesting to see who between him and Dean would get the nod in centerfield. In any case he will start the season at the top of the line-up and look to build on an impressive pro debut.
The people have spoken: @Braves prospect Justin Dean's max effort for @TheRomeBraves earned him @Terminix Defend Your Home POTM honors! pic.twitter.com/hAEh0GOoaY
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) September 6, 2018
39. Lucas Herbert, C
Age: 22 | Bats: R
.202/.255/.311 | 61 wRC+ | 5 HR | 0 SB | 6.5% BB | 29.0% K
Current Assignment: A+ Florida
Acquired: Drafted, 2nd Round – 2015
Prior Year Ranking: 23
The former 2nd-round pick and standout defensive catcher had a miserable season at the plate in his first year with advanced-A Florida. After starting the season alternating with fellow catcher Brett Cumberland between catcher and designated hitter, by mid-May Herbert’s lack of offense relegated him to almost strictly just filling in for Cumberland behind the plate. After a solid 2017 offensive season in Rome that seemed to show that he had a path forward as a high-contact hitter with some pop, Herbert ended up striking out 11% more in 2018.
The power however was still there, and his line-drive and fly-ball percentage went up and his ground ball rate edged down. If Herbert can continue those trends while dropping his strikeout rate back below 20%, it should allow him to hit enough to advance and possibly make the majors as a credible back-up. This is because Herbert’s defensive abilities are the best in the organization.
Herbert will likely get another crack at Florida, splitting time with top catching prospect William Contreras. -AH
38. Derian Cruz, 2B
Age: 20 | Bats: S
.222/.254/.308 | 61 wRC+ | 4 HR | 4 SB | 2.8% BB | 26.4% K
Current Assignment: A Rome
Acquired: International Amateur Free Agent – 2015
Prior Year Ranking: 45
One of the most common misconceptions about the sanctions imposed by MLB for the Braves international free agent rule infractions is that the huge signing class of 2016 caused the problem, since those were the players that were made free agents as part of the punishment. In actuality, the main problems that MLB uncovered had to do with the 2015 class, where the Braves traded for for international bonus pool slots so that they could make three major signings but still stay under the bonus pool cap. The problem was that the bonuses reported to be just under the cap turned out to be over the cap when you take into account under the table payments… which meant the Braves shouldn’t have been qualified to make signings with bonuses over $300,000 in 2016. That’s why those players in the 2016 class were removed. For the record, there’s been no revelation as to which players got more than publicly stated, or even if the players knew at all.
So who were those three players in the 2015 class? One was Cristian Pache, a top outfield prospect who will appear on this list later (SPOILER ALERT: much later). Another was Juan Morales, a slick-fielding shortstop who hasn’t hit his way out of the complex leagues yet. The third was Cruz, one of the more enigmatic prospects on this list. The athletic tools cannot be denied. He has 70-grade speed, a strong arm, and solid gap power when everything in his swing comes together, which happened often in the final three weeks of the season when he hit .302/.339/.358 before succumbing to an unfortunate hand injury on the last day of the regular season that kept him out of postseason play. He has good infield range and can make some fantastic plays.
The problem here is this. This is what I wrote about Cruz after the 2016 season.
He needs to work on strike-zone judgement, a trait that hurt him in the Appy League as pitchers were more consistently able to throw around the plate without throwing strikes and so far at least Cruz has shown to be a fairly dramatic free-swinger. Defensively, Cruz has shown a strong arm and good footwork and range at shortstop, but so far lacks a natural feel for the position, and needs to perfect the little things like exchanging the ball from glove to hand. These are the kinds of things should rapidly improve with experience. Cruz is very fast and accelerates quickly running the bases, but still has to learn the finer points of baserunning.
Every single one of those comments applies today, except the Braves have seemingly abandoned the idea of him becoming a shortstop and switched him permanently to second base. Yes, there have been marginal improvements at the plate; a few less strikeouts, a few more walks, a few less balls tapped weakly back to the pitcher. But he is still a poor baserunner for all of his speed, and he still plays the infield stiffly, without feel for the position. Cruz is still young, plenty young to hope that the lightbulb clicks on for him. It’s not Derian Cruz’s fault that the Braves got busted for breaking the rules… but the price the organization paid to acquire him turned out to be far higher than his signing bonus, and it’s time for him to accelerate his timetable. -AH
37. Jonathan Morales, C
Age: 24 | Bats: R
.265/.326/.340 | 90 wRC+ | 2 HR | 0 SB | 5.8% BB | 12.9% K (Rk, AA, AAA)
Current Assignment: AA Mississippi
Acquired: Draft – 2015 – 25th Round
Prior Year Ranking: 44
Jonathan Morales began the season at AA Mississippi splitting time behind the plate with Alex Jackson. Due to Jackson getting the majority of the time, though, Morales used his athleticism to fill in around the infield, receiving eleven starts at first base, two at third base and even entered one game to play second base. He was on the Mississippi roster until the middle of May, when he was moved up to Gwinnett. However, he suffered an injury there that caused him to miss more than a month. Upon his return, Morales played for two weeks with the GCL Braves before being moved back up to Gwinnett. He was returned to Mississippi once playing time became scarce with the Stripers, finishing the final month splitting time with Carlos Martinez behind the plate.
Morales was below average with the bat both at AA and AAA, having decent contact rates but not being able to produce much power with only one home run in 210 plate appearances at those levels. He hit too many balls on the ground, leading to 13 double plays in those 210 PAs. It was tough to get much of a read on Morales’ defensive progress as he only started 37 games at catcher between three levels. He did, however, throw out 46% of baserunners at Mississippi and 12 of 31 overall.
Jonathan Morales is becoming lost in the shuffle in the organization at the catcher position, as Alex Jackson bypassed him in going to AAA and with William Contreras at High-A, likely moving up to AA sometime during the 2019 season. Morales will need to improve significantly with the bat in order to have a future with the Braves. His best path to the majors at this point might be as a backup catcher who can play multiple positions, which could be useful to a team with a short bench. -MC
36. Alan Rangel, RHP
Age: 21 | Throws: R
4.09 ERA | 4.02 FIP | 25 G, 22 GS | 125.1 IP | 2.23 BB/9 | 7.54 K/9
Current Assignment: A Rome
Acquired: International Amateur Free Agent – 2015
Prior Year Ranking: 50
Rangel started the season in the Rome bullpen after being a swingman for the club for most of 2017. After left-hander Kyle Muller was promoted however, Rangel stayed in the rotation for the remainder of the year, and was the team’s best starter in the second half of the season with a 2.68 ERA after the SAL All-Star break.
To be honest, I have been slow to warm to Rangel’s game; until late this season, he seemed to reserve his worst outings for my personal attendance. But Rangel improved in every facet you would want him to improve on. His fastball velocity ticked up as he now sits comfortably in the 91-93 mph range after being constrained to 88-91 previously, likely thanks to his filling out his frame more. His curveball has been his best pitch to date, and that took a step forward as well as he’s been more consistently able to drop it in for strikes lower in the zone. But what really made a separation for Rangel in 2018 was the ability to spot the change-up for strikes.
For now, this should keep Rangel comfortably in a starting rotation, most likely in advanced-A Florida to start the 2019 season. Throwing three pitches for strikes should allow him to navigate through the minor leagues, but I’d like for him to add something to further separate himself. Another uptick in velocity, better deception, or better fastball and/or change-up movement would do the trick. -AH
35. Drew Lugbauer, C
Age: 22 | Bats: L
.232/.317/.374 | 101 wRC+ | 12 HR | 3 SB | 9.3% BB | 33.2% K
Current Assignment: A Rome
Acquired: Draft – 2017 – 11th Round
Prior Year Ranking: 32
After playing third base almost exclusively during his collegiate career at Michigan, then used at first, third, and catcher by the Braves in his first taste of pro ball with Danville and Rome in 2017, the Braves installed Lugbauer permanently behind the plate for Rome in 2018. The good news is that after a rough start behind the plate at the start of the season, Lugbauer steadily progressed and has shown enough that he should remain a catcher going forward, which is helpful for his major league prospects.
The downside is that the grind of catching regularly for the first time since high school clearly took a tool on the big man as he was a magnet for foul tips and bad back-swings. Working on defense was clearly the focus of the 2018 season, and his production at the plate fell far short of expectations in some quarters after he slugged 13 home runs in 60 games in 2017. While 12 home runs from the catcher position is nothing to sneeze at, his overall slugging percentage dropped 140 points from last season. His swing remains powerful, but he can still be beaten by quality fastballs up and sliders down and in, and his 33.2% strikeout rate was an unwelcome development. He’s dangerous on any pitch where he can extend his arms and he can punish mistakes to all fields.
As a catcher, he has somewhat stiff reactions, but he calls a good game and handles a staff well, and he really showed good pitch framing improvement over the course of the season. He has a strong and accurate arm and threw out 33% of baserunners. The Braves may return him to Rome to start the 2019 season, as Contreras and Herbert probably don’t need to be rushed to AA and there’s not a particularly strong catching prospect pushing Lugbauer from lower in the system. -AH
34. Wes Parsons, RHP
Age: 26 | Throws: R
2.76 ERA | 3.45 FIP | 24 G, 21 GS | 117.1 IP | 2.68 BB/9 | 7.98 K/9 (AA and AAA stats)
Current Assignment: AAA Gwinnett
Acquired: Minor League Free Agent – 2012
Prior Year Ranking: 48
Wes Parsons started the 2018 season at AA Mississippi after spending most of the 2017 season at the same level. He had to start at AA again due to the logjam of starting pitching at Gwinnett and was mainly a back-end starter at Mississippi due to the presence of Touki Toussaint and Kyle Wright. However, Parsons had the best early returns on the season due to a 1.23 ERA over eight games and seven starts, highlighted by his final AA start on May 10 where he pitched seven shutout innings, giving up just four hits and striking out nine while walking no one. Parsons got off to a quick start at Gwinnett, allowing three or fewer runs in all six of his starts before being promoted to Atlanta on June 27 to act as an extra arm in the bullpen.
However, he was not used on this call-up and was optioned to Gwinnett the next day. Parsons made five more AAA appearances before being called up on August 1 to once again serve as an extra bullpen arm. Like the first time, he was returned to Gwinnett the next day without appearing in a game. Parsons got his third call-up of the season a few days later on August 7, finally appearing in a game on August 9. On this occasion, he entered in relief of an injured Anibal Sanchez and ate five innings in relief, not pitching great but keeping the Braves in the game in a 6-3 loss. Parsons was then sent back to Gwinnett for the final time on the season.
Wes Parsons makes his living keeping the ball down in the zone and limiting the home runs and walks. At 26 years old, though, he’s pretty much a finished product. While currently on the 40-man roster, Parsons could be moved off at any time if additional space needs to be created. If he remains in the Atlanta Braves organization in 2019, he could serve as an effective depth option as a swingman at both the AAA and MLB levels as needed. -MC
33. Travis Demeritte, OF
Age: 24 | Bats: R
.222/.316/.416 | 107 wRC+ | 17 HR | 6 SB | 11.5% BB | 28.3% K
Current Assignment: AA Mississippi
Acquired: Trade w/Texas Rangers – 2016
Prior Year Ranking: 20
Prior to the 2018 season, the Atlanta Braves organization made the decision to move Travis Demeritte to left field after he split time between second and third base in 2017. Demeritte proceeded to spend the entire season at Mississippi for the second year in a row, starting 116 games in left field while starting one game apiece in center field and at third base.
Defensively, Demeritte was adequate in left field. He never looked uncomfortable in the position and used his athleticism to help minimize mistakes. He only committed three errors on the season while registering four assists. Offensively, Demeritte had slightly better numbers than in 2017, recording minor gains in home runs, BB %, ISO, OBP, SLG, wOBA and wRC+. However, his K % rate went up from 26 to 28% while recording 11 three-plus strikeout games.
After two full seasons at AA, it’s time to move Travis Demeritte to AAA to see what he can do in a ballpark that’s more conducive to home runs than Trustmark Park. With his versatility in being able to playing second base, third base and left field, the hefty strikeout rate is his primary obstacle to overcome to make it to the major leagues as a utility player, as a near 30% strikeout rate generally doesn’t translate to success at the MLB level. -MC
32. Tucker Davidson, LHP
Age: 22 | Throws: L
4.18 ERA | 3.98 FIP | 24 G, 24 GS | 118.1 IP | 4.41 BB/9 | 7.53 K/9
Current Assignment: A+ Florida
Acquired: Draft – 2016 – 19th Round
Prior Year Ranking: 31
After forcing himself out of the Rome bullpen midseason in 2017 with a series of strong spot starts, Davidson found himself the recipient of some off-season prospect love from the likes of Baseball America. In 2018 Davidson was in a starting rotation on Opening Day for the first time in his pro career, with the Florida Fire Frogs. Advanced-A hitters treated Davidson rudely in his first trips through the league however. This was due to a surprising lack of control, and he was walking 6.48 batters per nine innings over the first two months of the season. Reports are that his fastball was regularly sitting in the 94-96 range, about two to three mph faster than his time in the Rome rotation.
It’s likely he was working on refining mechanics for increased velocity and was overthrowing. Davidson was able to leash the dragon a bit more often in the two final thirds of the season, and his walk rate reduced to a more reasonable 3.46 walks per nine. Davidson finished out the season with 13.1 shutout innings over two starts, striking out 13.
Davidson’s reliance on the fastball and his somewhat pedestrian secondary pitches make me see a move back to the bullpen in his future, but for now he should keep plugging away in the rotation and see if he unlocked something over the second half of the season. He could return to Florida or move up to AA Mississippi to start 2018. -AH
31. Jasseel De La Cruz, RHP
Age: 21 | Throws: R
4.83 ERA | 4.41 FIP | 15 G, 13 GS | 69.0 IP | 4.43 BB/9 | 8.48 K/9
Current Assignment: A Rome
Acquired: International Amateur Free Agent – 2015
Prior Year Ranking: N/A
On the heels of a strong rookie league campaign in 2017, for the first three starts of the 2018 season for Rome, De La Cruz looked like he was about to catapult himself into to the conversation for best Braves pitching prospect in the lower minors, allowing just one earned run in 14 innings and striking out 16. In his fourth start he had to leave early with an injury and he missed the next six weeks. When he returned he wasn’t quite the same, and stretches of dominance were occasionally punctured by blow-up innings.
When his body is right however, he’s got a fastball that sits comfortably in the 93 mph range with good life and a slider that flashes as a plus pitch. He has a developing change-up, and one of his best late-season starts featured it heavily. Other than health, the main concern with De La Cruz is occasionally spotty control, but those two issues may be interconnected. If either a third pitch or the control don’t mature, the bullpen is a viable consideration, but for now he should start in 2019 in the Florida rotation. -AH
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