Josh Donaldson signs a 1 year, $23M deal

Atlanta fans were already excited. The Braves were signing former Brave Brian McCann to a one year deal. It wasn’t a splashy move in terms of impact on the 2019 standings, of course. McCann is a part-time veteran catcher, and that isn’t typically something that drastically changes a team’s fate. However, he is a player beloved by this city, and it’s a feel-good reunion that will at least impact ticket sales. Weeks into an as yet quiet offseason, this was an exciting and welcome development.

Minutes later, things got much more interesting. While still processing the McCann signing, we learned the team was also signing former MVP 3B Josh Donaldson to a one year, $23,000,000 deal. Let’s take a look at what that means for the Braves and Donaldson.

The Player Before

A first round pick in 2007 by the Cubs, Donaldson wound up in the Oakland system when the Cubs traded for Rich Harden in 2008. A bit of a late bloomer, he wouldn’t lose rookie status until after age 26. He quickly made up for lost time, however. At age 27 in 2013, he slashed .301/.384/.499 with 24 HR, finishing 4th in the MVP race. He was good again in 2014 (.255/.342/.456, 29 HR), making his first All-Star team and finishing 8th in MVP voting. After the season, Oakland traded Donaldson to Toronto for four players, a trade created by Toronto’s GM at the time, Alex Anthopoulos.

In Toronto in 2015, Donaldson had his best season to date, hitting .297/.371/.568 with 41 home runs; the 3rd baseman led the AL in both runs scored and RBI, while playing plus defense, en route to another All-Star appearance, a Silver Slugger Award, and the AL MVP Award. Donaldson was excellent again in 2016 (.284/.404/.549, 37 HR), another All-Star and Silver Slugger season which resulted in a 4th place MVP finish. In April 2017, Donaldson hit the DL for the first time in his MLB career – a calf strain sidelined him more than a month. When he returned, he hit .270/.385/.559 with 33 HR and topped 5 fWAR for the 5th straight season.

Donaldson relatively struggled out of the gate in 2018, hitting .239/.352/.457 (which is still helpful) over his first 12 games before being sidelined with right shoulder inflammation. He returned with a bang on May 3, homering in both ends of a double-header. For the next month, however, Donaldson would hit .213/.319/.313 without a single home run. On June 1 he landed back on the DL, this time with calf tightness due to an incident during a May 28 game. What was initially considered to be a minor injury got re-aggravated during fielding drills, and his DL stint was extended. There would be occasional reports of Donaldson feeling better, but he wouldn’t start a rehab assignment until August 28. Many assumed this was in order to help the out-of-the-race Blue Jays facilitate a trade. 3 days later Cleveland traded a player to be named later to the Jays for Donaldson.

Donaldson made his Indians debut on September 11. In 16 games with the Tribe, he hit .280/.400/.520 with 3 HR. He had a rough Division Series and became a free agent.

The Player Ahead

Josh Donaldson is at the point in his career where injuries and aging have the potential to really affect things. We saw it last year with his calf. However, he’s also at the age – he’ll play all of next season at age 33 – where injuries aren’t necessarily to be expected as much as teams are to be cautioned about them. Donaldson may require a competent backup, but that in no way means you are past the point of being able to count on Josh Donaldson.

Steamer, a popular projection system, projects Donaldson to hit .257/.366/.485 with 27 HR and a 4.6 fWAR next season. If he is indeed worth 4 and a half wins, he will be an absolute bargain at $23M (the free market tends to pay $8M per WAR, sometimes more, studies have found). You can see in his Statcast numbers that he is in decline, but you have to remember that he’s declining from a much higher starting point than most players ever reach, and he’s doing so gradually. Since 2015, his average exit velocity off the bat has gone from 92.2 mph to 92.0 to 90.6 to 90.2. His “hard hit” percentage has moved from nearly 50% to 44.4% and then 41.0%. He remains as disciplined as ever, but his contact rate inside the strike zone dropped precipitously last season, another cause for age-related concern.

If I’ve alarmed you, that was slyly the intent, only for me to have the chance to make you feel better. In his brief stint with the Indians, many of these underlying, process-related causes for concern were instantly corrected. He looked like his old self, and the numbers backed it up. That “hard hit” percentage spiked back to 50%, and his contact rate in the zone was back to where it had been when he was a superstar. It’s not a large sample, but it is very encouraging for someone coming off a pesky, lengthy injury.

Donaldson is still a plus defender at 3rd, though he is slowly moving towards average. A few years from now, his defense could be a concern. On a one year deal, on the other hand, he should be more than adequate.

2019 will be a pivotal season for Josh Donaldson. He very likely could have gotten more guaranteed money in a 3 year deal worth closer to $17-$19M annually. But he bet on himself yesterday, betting that one season of good health in the Smyrna sunshine would give him more negotiating power going into his age-34 season. It’s a reasonable risk, because Josh Donaldson very recently has been one of the best players in baseball, and it’s reasonable to think that superstar talents might be more equipped to fight the aging curve than the average ballplayer. However, if injuries bite again, or 33 happens to spark a sharp decline for the former All-Star, then it could be his last contract of serious note. Like I said, it’s a pivotal year for him.

How He Fits

Donaldson’s bet on himself made him a natural fit for what Atlanta wants to do, which is enhance the team’s odds for 2019 as much as possible without sacrificing too much in terms of prospect capital. Donaldson should be the best 3B Atlanta has had since Chipper Jones won the 2008 batting title. He’s the type of player who could conceivably carry this team back into the postseason and even do some damage once he’s there – he is a career .275/.345/.443 hitter in the playoffs.

If he isn’t healthy or declines too sharply, Atlanta will owe him a lot of money but be done after 2019. This doesn’t block Austin Riley in the long term, if Atlanta decides the prospect is the 3B of the future. It allows Johan Camargo to play in the role best suited for him, as a super-utility player who starts several times per week. If you watched the Division Series against LA, you may have noticed the Dodger bench. It was stacked with good and useful players. If the Braves are serious about advancing in October, they’ll need a deeper bench. Making Camargo option #1 off the bench does that. This isn’t a move that suggests Braves brass has no confidence in Johan Camargo. It’s a move that suggests they do have confidence in this team right now, and Camargo goes from being a useful starter to a luxury item. You see, when you are rich with talent, you get to have the luxury items.

Donaldson is a right-handed hitter, and he predictably mashes southpaws more than he does the same-siders. Atlanta, already one of the league’s best-hitting teams against left-handed pitching (107 wRC+), just got better. Next to Freddie Freeman in the lineup, he’ll make pitching changes a bit more difficult than Nick Markakis did.

All around, Donaldson is a great fit for the Braves. He’s a potential All-Star (likely) or MVP type player (less likely), and while his pay is significant, the team doesn’t have to alter any long term plans to accommodate the signing. He costs only money, meaning the team upgraded its roster without losing Kolby Allard, Kyle Wright, or Cristian Pache. It’s hard not to love this deal for Atlanta. If and when Donaldson departs in a year and the team hands the 3B reins over to Riley, which I would imagine is the plan, the Braves could even extend Donaldson a Qualifying Offer, which would net the team a draft pick once he signs elsewhere.

Braves designate LHP Adam McCreery for assignment

Similar to the team DFA-ing Ricardo Sanchez to make room for Brian McCann, the Braves needed a corresponding move to make room for Donaldson. The 25 year old McCreery was unfortunately the casualty of the signing.

The 6’8″ lefty made his MLB debut in 2018 for Atlanta, pitching precisely one inning. He earned his call-up after some decent relief work in AA and AAA. If Atlanta hopes to keep him, he’ll have to pass through waivers, at which point the team would outright him. Like Sanchez, however, that would make McCreery eligible for the Rule V draft. As a tall lefty reliever who has already earned a MLB debut, he’d be a pretty attractive target in that case, and Atlanta could lose him to another organization next month. Scouting reports on McCreery at this point project him as more of a fringe back-of-the-bullpen up and down reliever, so while he has some value to an organization, you’re unlikely to fret over the results of the Rule V Draft as you watch the Bringer of Rain launch homers into the Cobb County night.