Welcome to the final post revealing the latest OFR Top 50 Braves Prospects. This portion of the list is the cream of the crop, with most of these players likely to be counted in the top 100 prospects in the game. My colleague Andy Harris and I hope you have enjoyed this year’s top 50 list.
Also in this series:
Atlanta Braves Top 50 Prospects: #50-41
Atlanta Braves Top 50 Prospects: #40-31
Atlanta Braves Top 50 Prospects: #30-21
Atlanta Braves Top 50 Prospects: #20-11
10. Luiz Gohara, LHP
Age: 22 | Throws: L
MLB: 5.95 ERA | 4.53 FIP | 9 G, 1 GS | 19.2 IP | 3.66 BB/9 | 8.24 K/9
MiLB: 4.81 ERA | 4.40 FIP | 13 G, 13 GS | 58.0 IP | 2.79 BB/9 | 9.16 K/9 (AA, AAA)
Current Assignment: MLB – Atlanta
Acquired: Trade w/Seattle Mariners – 2017
Prior Year Ranking: 3
Luiz Gohara was the prohibitive favorite to be the Braves 5th starter out of spring training, but easily had the toughest 2018 season among the top prospects. His father passed away last winter, hindering his preparations for the season. Shortly arriving at spring training, Gohara suffered a groin injury that sidelined him for two weeks. Soon after, he suffered an ankle injury during a fielding drill that delayed his season even further.
Gohara finally hit the minor-league mound on April 17, making a generally ineffective four starts before being called up to the big-league bullpen on May 10. He was used sparingly, making only seven appearances with one start over the next five weeks with the nadir being a relief appearance in San Diego where he allowed six earned runs in two-thirds of an inning just after returning from a leave of absence to visit his mother in Brazil after her heart surgery. He was optioned back to Gwinnett in late June, where he made three starts before being called back up on July 4. After making a couple of relief appearances, he was again returned to Gwinnett for the final time in 2018. Gohara made four more starts for Gwinnett before being sidelined with a sore shoulder at the end of July. He did return to make two decent starts towards the end of August before being shut down for the rest of the season.
As Luiz Gohara’s trade value is at a low point right now, he will have an opportunity to rebound next season for the Braves. A primary indicator for next season will be the condition in which he reports to spring training. If he shows up in better physical condition, it could signal a dedicated approach to his career and lead to a rebound season. If he doesn’t, things could spiral down fairly quickly. This initiative appears to be off to a good start as the Braves and his agent Scott Boras worked together to have Gohara spend several weeks in Miami during the offseason and, in the process, lost 35 pounds. As far as his approach, Gohara needs to develop a third pitch to go along with his easy fastball and wipeout slider in order to have a chance for extended success as a starting pitcher in the major leagues. -MC
9. Kyle Wright, RHP
Age: 23 | Throws: R
MLB: 4.50 ERA | 8.83 FIP | 4 G, 0 GS | 6.0 IP | 9.00 BB/9 | 7.5 K/9
MiLB: 3.46 ERA | 3.31 FIP | 27 G, 24 GS | 138.0 IP | 3.33 BB/9 | 8.67 K/9 (AA, AAA)
Current Assignment: MLB – Atlanta
Acquired: Drafted, 1st Round – 2017
Prior Year Ranking: 4
Kyle Wright was the Braves first-round and number five overall draft pick in the 2017 draft. After the draft, he reported to the GCL Braves then was quickly promoted to Florida. Wright only pitched seventeen innings over nine outings, but it gave him valuable professional experience and helped pave the way for him to start the 2018 season at Mississippi.
Wright had horrendous home/road splits to start the season, producing a 2.232 WHIP, 6.3 BB/9 and an 8.23 ERA through his first seven home starts while having just a 0.953 WHIP, a 2.02 ERA and only walking 2.8 batters per nine on the road. The walks and a BABIP that was approaching .500 at one point were the main culprits in this disparity. Once the middle of June rolled around, things began to even out with a 2.33 ERA, 1.100 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and just a 2.5 BB/9 in his final seven AA starts.
Like several other elite Braves prospects, Wright was promoted to the next level in early August. He pitched well during his four starts at Gwinnett before being moved to a relief role to prepare him for a September call-up to Atlanta. Once he was added to the major-league roster in September, however, he was used sparingly in the stretch run with only four relief appearances during the final month while being left off of the playoff roster.
Although Kyle Wright went from AA to MLB over the course of the season, he only tallied 34.2 combined AAA/MLB innings and could use more seasoning at the AAA level. Look for Wright to be part of a stacked Gwinnett starting rotation to start 2019 while being the first man up when a spot becomes available. -MC
8. Bryse Wilson, RHP
Age: 21 | Throws: R
MLB: 6.43 ERA | 4.02 FIP | 3 G, 1 GS | 7.0 IP | 7.71 BB/9 | 7.71 K/9
MiLB: 3.44 ERA | 3.02 FIP | 23 G, 21 GS | 125.2 IP | 3.33 BB/9 | 8.67 K/9 (A+, AA, AAA)
Current Assignment: MLB – Atlanta
Acquired: Drafted, 4th Round – 2016
Prior Year Ranking: 11
Bryse Wilson had perhaps the most meteoric rise through the Braves farm system in 2018. Wilson, who played the entire 2017 season at Rome, started the season at Florida and was expected to spend a significant portion of the year there. However, after posting a 0.43 ERA in his first five starts, it was obvious that the Florida State League provided little challenge to Wilson so he earned a quick promotion to Mississippi. He scuffled for his first two months at AA as he adjusted to the level, posting a 6.25 ERA and 1.701 WHIP in 44.2 innings covering his first ten starts in Pearl. For his five AA starts in July, however, Wilson pitched 32.1 innings, allowing just three earned runs (0.84 ERA) along with a 0.835 WHIP while striking out 11.7 hitters per nine innings and walking just 1.9.
This stretch earned Wilson a promotion to Gwinnett in early August, where he was hammered in his first two starts before turning in perhaps the best start anywhere in the Atlanta Braves organization this season on August 15, pitching eight scoreless innings where he allowed just one hit while striking out 13. This performance earned him a spot start in the big leagues at Pittsburgh on August 20, where he pitched five shutout innings and earned a win in his major-league start. Wilson returned to Gwinnett after that and finished August with two relief appearances before returning to Atlanta in September during roster expansion. He only appeared twice in relief during the month, making his last four appearances for the season all in relief and being scored upon in each outing.
Wilson’s calling cards are his advanced control and a pitching repertoire that can generate both strikeouts and groundballs. It’s this mix that puts him slightly ahead of Wright and Gohara, despite the relative lack of experience.
Although Bryse Wilson had a standout season and an impressive major-league debut, he only has a combined four AAA/MLB starts and will most likely start 2019 at Gwinnett. However, he will be towards the front of the line for a call-up to Atlanta should the need arise and could very will see a significant amount of action at SunTrust Park next season. -MC
7. Drew Waters, OF
Age: 20 | Bats: S
.293/.343/.476 | 132 wRC+ | 9 HR | 23 SB | 5.8% BB | 21.1% K (A, A+)
Current Assignment: A+ Florida
Acquired: Drafted, 2nd Round – 2017
Prior Year Ranking: 22
Drew Waters played most of the season for Rome, then earned a promotion to Florida for the final month of the season. Waters put all of his tools on display in his first full professional season, amassing 57 extra-base hits, stealing 23 bases with an 82% success rate and hitting nearly .300 while patrolling center field. Although he struck out over 100 times on the season, he did it at a manageable 21% rate and struck out more than two times in a game only three times on the season, none taking place after July 6. Waters didn’t walk much, though, with just a 5.8% rate and 29 walks for the season.
Waters is very aggressive at the plate, but his bat-to-ball skills are impressive enough to make it work in the lower levels, but he will need to learn to be more selective if he is to remain a top-of-the-order type hitter. He spent last offseason working on utilizing his lower half better at the plate and dialing back an exaggerated leg kick that often had him off-balance, and it paid big dividends for him in 2018. Perhaps the biggest improvement Waters can make is to be able to shake off a bad at-bat or a bad game; he’s emotional and demonstrative on the field to the point where a bad at-bat can sometimes effect him on defense. This should improve with maturity. Regardless, Waters is one of the top athletes in the organization.
Waters only played 30 games in Florida and should return there to start 2019. Being that he doesn’t turn 20 years old until just before the start of 2019, Waters will get as much time as he needs to develop before moving up in the organization. -MC
6. William Contreras, C
Age: 21 | Bats: R
.285/.347/.436 | 125 wRC+ | 11 HR | 1 SB | 8.1% BB | 20.6% K (A, A+)
Current Assignment: A+ Florida
Acquired: International Amateur Free Agent – 2015
Prior Year Ranking: 16
William Contreras, who is by far the best catching prospect in the system, started off his first year of full-season ball in 2018 at Rome, where he played most of the season before being called up to Florida for the final month.
Although Contreras appeared in 105 games over the course of the season, he only played as a catcher in 63 of them, giving him an opportunity to hone his offensive skills in the designated hitter slot and generating a 136 wRC+ at Rome before his promotion. Contreras has a simple, aggressive, and powerful swing that generates line-drive power and he should get more than his share of home runs. He’s more athletic than most catchers, and he runs well on the bases.
Defensively, he threw out 27 of 98 baserunners (28%) and had 19 errors, but some of that can most be attributed by having to deal with a lack of advanced pitching at the South Atlantic League level. He’s improved tremendously in the blocking and framing areas in the past year, and is an able game manager. He’s a natural leader on the field and in the dugout.
Contreras will return to Florida to start the 2019 season, as he only spent a month there to finish the 2018 season. Although he has a bright future at the position and in the organization, catchers tend to move slower through the minor leagues since there are so many aspects to master before they move to the next level. Based on that, it will most likely be two more seasons before Contreras makes it to Atlanta if everything goes well. If there is any prospect in the organization this is essentially untradeable at this time, William Contreras is that player. -MC
5. Ian Anderson, RHP
Age: 20 | Throws: R
2.49 ERA | 1.72 FIP | 24 G, 24 GS | 119.1 IP | 3.70 BB/9 | 10.71 K/9 (A+, AA)
Current Assignment: AA Mississippi
Acquired: Drafted, 1st Round – 2016
Prior Year Ranking: 7
Ian Anderson started and spent most of the season at High-A Florida after spending his first full professional season at Rome in 2017. His season started slowly due to early pitch counts and adjusting to the level of competition, as he allowed 11 runs and walked ten in 14 innings over four starts although he struck out 18 during that time. However, in his remaining 16 Florida starts, Anderson allowed just a 1.78 ERA and 1.035 WHIP while striking out 10.5 per nine innings while walking just 3.1. He also helped minimize damage by allowing just two home runs on the season, and now has given up just three in 242 career minor-league innings.
On August 14, Anderson was promoted to AA Mississippi where he made his final four starts of the season. After taking a couple of starts to acclimate to the new competitive level, he finished off his last two starts of the season by throwing a total of 12.2 shutout innings, allowing just five hits and three walks while striking out 19. Among the Braves prospects that haven’t made their major league debuts yet, Anderson has the best “stuff”, showing three pitches that can be well above average. The main question mark about Anderson was if he would be able withstand a full season after being limited the last two seasons; he took a big step toward showing he would be able to do so with his 120 innings.
Ian Anderson will start off the 2019 season at Mississippi to continue where he left off and head a rotation that could also include the likes of Kyle Muller and Joey Wentz. He still has some control issues, as evidenced by 19 wild pitches and the ten times in 24 starts where he allowed at least three walks, but those occur less frequently as he adjusts to a new level. 2019 should be a big season for Ian Anderson’s development. -MC
4. Cristian Pache, OF
Age: 20 | Bats: R
.279/.360/.522 | 102 wRC+ | 9 HR | 7 SB | 4.0% BB | 19.6% K (A+, AA)
Current Assignment: AA Mississippi
Acquired: International Amateur Free Agent – 2015
Prior Year Ranking: 9
Cristian Pache began his season at Florida after spending the entire 2017 campaign at Rome, looking to work on his offense to go along with his already outstanding outfield defense. He played a majority of the season at Florida before being promoted to Mississippi on August 1 to finish out the season there.
After the 2017 season Pache nearly completely re-made his swing to try to avoid the extreme groundball tendencies that sabotaged his raw power in his prior pro seasons. Pache showed some improvement on offense, raising his number of extra-base hits from 21 in 2017 to 38 in 2018, his ISO from .062 to .131 and his number of home runs from zero to nine, although only three of those were hit in the home-run graveyards at Florida and Mississippi. He managed these gains while slightly reducing his K % rate from 20.2% to 19.6%.
However, there were some negatives to be noted. Pache’s walk rate fell from 7.6% to 4.0% as he walked only twenty times all season as a result of increasing his overall aggressiveness at the plate. Pache needs to work on the timing of his weight transfer as breaking pitches will too often have him off balance. In addition, his stolen base totals (32 to 7) and success rate (70% to 47%) fell as well.
Cristian Pache spent October and November in the Arizona Fall League but will likely return to Mississippi in 2019 after logging just 29 games there this season. He is far from mastering that level, finishing 1-for-22 in his last eight games as the grind of the season finally caught up with him. Pache will need to work on his patience and approach at the plate as well as his work on the basepaths before getting any closer to Atlanta. -MC
3. Austin Riley, 3B
Age: 21 | Bats: R
.294/.360/.522 | 145 wRC+ | 19 HR | 1 SB | 8.1% BB | 28.4% K (AA, AAA)
Current Assignment: AAA Gwinnett
Acquired: Drafted, 1st Round – 2015
Prior Year Ranking: 6
Austin Riley got off to a tremendous start at Mississippi, following up on a strong finish to his 2017 campaign at the same level by amassing a 1.000+ OPS in 27 games while demonstrating solid glovework and agility at the hot corner before earning a promotion to Gwinnett in early May. He started strong at AAA by registering hits in 11 of his first 13 games, punctuated by a monster three-home-run, eight-RBI performance on Mother’s Day. This power surge was the exception rather than the rule, though, as he hit just one home run in his other 25 games before going down with a knee injury in early June.
After missing about a month with a knee injury, Riley rehabbed for a week in the GCL before returning to Gwinnett on July 12. He did well getting on base (.342 OBP) and cutting down some on the strikeouts (25% K rate) in the 33 games following his return but hit just one home run during that time, contributing to a disappointing .375 SLG. Whether Riley was working on something in his approach or if it was a byproduct of the knee injury, he flipped the switch on August 21, hitting seven home runs in his final sixteen games. Although Riley rediscovered his power stroke in producing a .311/.354/.705 line to close out the season, he struck out at an elevated 31% rate while walking under 5% of the time during that stretch.
Austin Riley will most likely be at Gwinnett to open 2019, as he needs to experience an extended stretch of success at the AAA level while cutting back on the strikeouts to a more manageable rate. If he starts off at Gwinnett like he did at Mississippi in 2018, he most likely won’t be in the minors for much longer, and he will start the 2019 season as one of the top third base prospects in baseball. -MC
2. Touki Toussaint, RHP
Age: 22 | Throws: R
MLB: 4.03 ERA | 3.78 FIP | 7 G, 5 GS | 29.0 IP | 6.52 BB/9 | 9.93 K/9
MiLB: 2.38 ERA | 2.97 FIP | 24 G, 24 GS | 136.1 IP | 3.50 BB/9 | 10.76 K/9 (AA, AAA)
Current Assignment: MLB – Atlanta Braves
Acquired: Traded, Arizona Diamondbacks – 2015
Prior Year Ranking: 10
Touki Toussaint spent most of the season at AA Mississippi, developing his changeup to go along with his already excellent fastball and deadly hammer of a curveball. The biggest improvement for Toussaint was the increased confidence of trusting his overall arsenal to get him out of trouble rather than exacerbating it. The groundball rate was up and walks were down while his left-on-base percentage was also up. Touki was promoted in early July to Gwinnett, where he toyed with International League hitters in tossing five impressive starts before being called up to Atlanta for a spot start against the Marlins on August 13. Toussaint allowed just one run over six innings in earning a win in his major-league debut. He didn’t let being optioned to Gwinnett get to him, however, as he allowed just one earned run over nineteen innings in three starts before being recalled to Atlanta during roster expansion in September. Touki won just one of his remaining four starts and demonstrated some control issues but showed signs of being a future star. He also gained valuable postseason experience in the NLDS versus the Los Angeles Dodgers, pitching three scoreless innings over two appearances and earning the Braves’ lone win in the series.
Touki Toussaint will almost certainly be a part of the Atlanta Braves rotation in 2019, barring any unforeseen circumstances. The experience and success he encountered during the 2018 season sets the stage to propel him to possible future stardom. -MC
1. Mike Soroka, RHP
Age: 21 | Throws: R
MLB: 3.51 ERA | 2.85 FIP | 5 G, 5 GS | 25.2 IP | 2.45 BB/9 | 7.36 K/9
MiLB: 1.76 ERA | 1.72 FIP | 6 G, 6 GS | 30.2 IP | 1.76 BB/9 | 9.98 K/9 (AAA)
Current Assignment: MLB – Atlanta Braves
Acquired: Drafted, 1st Round – 2015
Prior Year Ranking: 2
Mike Soroka started off strongly in his first five starts at Gwinnett, impressing Alex Anthopoulos and his staff enough to give an early call-up on May 1 to face the New York Mets, where he gave up just one run over six innings while striking out five and walking no one. Soroka showed great poise and potential in his first three MLB starts, but his progress was slowed as he was placed on the disabled list in mid-May with a right shoulder strain following his third major-league start. He then made two minor-league rehab starts before returning to the Atlanta rotation on June 13. Soroka came back strong in tossing 6.1 scoreless innings against the Mets before getting knocked around in his Canadian homecoming against Toronto on June 19. He re-aggravated the shoulder injury during that outing and was again placed on the DL on June 22. On June 27, Soroka was transferred to the 60-day disabled list. He was technically able to return in September, but the Braves decided to play it safe in the middle of a pennant race and shut down Soroka for the remainder of the season.
Mike Soroka’s shoulder was tested in instructional league, deemed healthy and he appears to be on track to be ready for 2019 spring training. He will be given every opportunity to make the starting rotation to begin the season and, if his shoulder is healthy, could be a mainstay of the Atlanta Braves rotation for many years to come. -MC
Have covered the AFL for 24 of its 27 years – went to 42 games this season. I am very high on Cristian Pache – not only for his stellar defense and speed, he is doing a better job harnessing his power and pitch selection. He is also a very coach able, gets along with teammates, and plays loose. Throughout the 2018 AFL season couldn’t help compare Cristian Pache to Taylor Trammell (17th best prospect per MLB.com). Pache: + arm, + defense, both with 70 speed, + power. Only category I would rank behind Trammell is hitting – even then – not far off. Have seen hundreds of players come through the AFL, Pache is one of those players that plays above his age. He is going to move up my rankings into the 30-35 range.