Hall of Fame 2019: Andy's Ballot

*Will Andruw Jones catch more love from Hall of Fame voters this year?. (Keith Haldey/AJC)*

The smell of pine logs burning in fireplaces.
Brightly colored lights festooning homes, workplaces, and sweaters.
A rise in figgy pudding consumption.

It can only mean one thing: Baseball Hall of Fame ballot debate season!

This year the process was thrown a curveball by the Veteran’s Committee (or whatever weird name it calls itself now), who have elected borderline candidates Lee Smith and Harold Baines. I’m not going to try to knock the on-field accomplishments of either of these fine gentlemen, but from the get-go I want to let you, my dozens of loyal readers, know that their selection doesn’t dramatically alter my feelings on who is worthy. Neither would the worst selections of prior years (waves to Freddie Lindstrom).

Like the last time I posted about the Hall of Fame, I would put in maximum 10 players. They are as follows:

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Roy Halladay
Andruw Jones
Edgar Martinez
Mike Mussina
Mariano Rivera
Scott Rolen
Curt Schilling
Larry Walker

In addition, there are ten other players that I believe worthy of substantial consideration, and that I don’t believe would weaken Hall standards should they be elected.

Lance Berkman
Todd Helton
Jeff Kent
Fred McGriff
Roy Oswalt
Andy Pettitte
Manny Ramirez
Gary Sheffield
Sammy Sosa
Billy Wagner

Methodology

I used basic stats to narrow down the list to those twenty. After that I use a Socratic method similar to that developed by Bill James in his book Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame? Each “yes” answer is a strong tick in that player’s favor, with the questions toward the top weighted higher and less as you go down.

Is this player arguably the best player of all time? (The answer is “no” on this for every candidate except Barry Bonds)
Is he arguably the best player in baseball not enshrined in the Hall of Fame?
Is this player arguably the best player at his position of all time?
Is this player arguably the best player for his franchise of all time?
Is he arguably the best player at his position not enshrined in the Hall of Fame?
Are most of the players comparable to this player in the Hall of Fame?
Did this player have a significant post-season impact?
Was he recognized as a premiere player while he was active?
Did the player have any significant positive impact on the game not reflected in his playing record?
Did this player uphold high standards of sportsmanship and character?

As you can see, I don’t automatically throw out players suspected to be PED users, though cheating in general is a consideration. For a more nuanced review of my PED policy, check out my previous Hall of Fame piece. Also in that piece you can read my thoughts on the candidates that have carried over, namely Bonds, Clemens, Martinez, Mussina, Schilling, and Walker. My thinking on those players is essentially the same as now, so I’m not going to spend more time on them now.

Roy Halladay

Halladay is on the short list of players that can be considered the greatest Toronto Blue Jay of all time.

Is he arguably the best player at his position not enshrined in the Hall of Fame? No.
Are most of the players comparable to this player in the Hall of Fame? Yes.

Just ahead of Halladay in the JAWS method are HoF pitchers Bob Feller and Juan Marichal. Most of the pitchers behind him are either borderline cases like Ted Lyons and Don Drysdale or pitchers with shorter careers like Sandy Koufax. If elected, I think Halladay would sit comfortably in the middle of Hall of Fame starting pitchers.

Did this player have a significant post-season impact? Yes.

Halladay unfortunately never had the opportunity to pitch in the World Series, but you can’t ignore throwing a no-hitter in a playoff game, as Halladay did against the Cincinnati Reds while with the Phillies in Game One of the 2010 NL Division Series. He was one 4th-inning Jay Bruce walk from pitching a perfect game.

Was he recognized as a premiere player while he was active? Yes.

Two Cy Young Awards, eight All-Star appearances, even two top-10 MVP finishes. The Toronto Blue Jays have retired his number, and I would expect the Phillies will at some point as well.

Did the player have any significant positive impact on the game not reflected in his playing record? No.
Did this player uphold high standards of sportsmanship and character? Yes.

Halladay and his wife did some nice work with children’s hospitals in the Toronto area while with the Blue Jays, and though he never won the Roberto Clemente Award he was a multi-time nominee. Halladay was an outspoken crusader on the player side to get PEDs out of the game.

Andruw Jones

Is he arguably the best player in baseball not enshrined in the Hall of Fame? No.
Is this player arguably the best player at his position of all time? No.
Is this player arguably the best player for his franchise of all time? No.
Is he arguably the best player in baseball not enshrined in the Hall of Fame? No.
Is he arguably the best player at his position not enshrined in the Hall of Fame? Yes.

If you discount Mike Trout, who is active, and Carlos Beltran who is not yet eligible for the ballot, then Jones is arguably the greatest centerfielder not enshrined.

Are most of the players comparable to this player in the Hall of Fame? Yes.

Of the centerfielders on the JAWS leaderboard only Kenny Lofton, whose candidacy was shockingly abbreviated, is a comparable player who is not enshrined.

Did this player have a significant post-season impact? Yes.

Jones still holds the record for the youngest player to hit a home run in the World Series, hitting two of them in the 1996 Series against the Yankees when he was 19 years old. Jones would compile an impressive .273/.363/.433 career post-season batting line with 10 home runs in 18 post-season series.

Was he recognized as a premiere player while he was active? Yes.

A record-tying 10 consecutive Gold Gloves, and he garnered MVP votes in 5 seasons, including a 2nd-place finish in 2005. Almost every contemporary account names him as the greatest defensive centerfielder of his era, with many believing he’s the greatest of all time.

Did the player have any significant positive impact on the game not reflected in his playing record? No.
Did this player uphold high standards of sportsmanship and character? Yes*

During his career, there were rumors of Jones using PEDs, but there was no evidence of him doing so. Jones’s best season was 2005, the same year MLB started random testing for PEDs, so it seems just as likely that he would have performed better in his prime years with fewer pitchers on the juice. The biggest knock on Jones’s character occurred the offseason after his final season as a major leaguer, when Jones was arrested on a domestic assault charge after an altercation with his wife that eventually lead to their divorce. Ironically, Jones was one of the few major league players to take up domestic abuse as a cause during his playing career.

Mariano Rivera

Is he arguably the best player in baseball not enshrined in the Hall of Fame? No.
Is this player arguably the best player at his position of all time? Yes.

Quite frankly, this is most of what Rivera’s Hall of Fame candidacy is built on, that he is arguably the best relief pitcher of all time. Going by JAWS, he is only behind Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley, with Eckersley also getting value from his 361 career starts. Looking at any other metric for relievers brings up the same conclusion: Rivera is a on a very short list of possibly being the best relief pitcher of all time.

Is this player arguably the best player for his franchise of all time? No.

Of course, his franchise was the Yankees so this is hardly a knock against him.

Is he arguably the best player in baseball not enshrined in the Hall of Fame? No.
Is he arguably the best player at his position not enshrined in the Hall of Fame? Yes.

There’s still not a whole lot of relievers that have been enshrined, and the criteria for enshrinement is far, far from settled. But if there are going to be Hall of Fame relievers, then Rivera qualifies by pretty much any standard.

Are most of the players comparable to this player in the Hall of Fame? Yes.
Did this player have a significant post-season impact? Yes.

The second biggest factor in Rivera’s candidacy is his post-season record, where he holds the records for saves and appearances by substantial amounts. Perhaps even more impressive his his career 11.7 WPA (Win Probability Added), almost 8 wins better than second-place Curt Schilling on the all-time post-season leaderboard. He was named MVP of the 1999 World Series.

Was he recognized as a premiere player while he was active? Yes.

Six top-10 Cy Young Award finishes, including a 2nd-place finish in 2005. Thirteen-time All-Star. Rivera received MVP votes in 9 different seasons, finishing as high as 9th twice. He won the American League relief pitcher of the year award so many times, they’ve literally named it after him.

Did the player have any significant positive impact on the game not reflected in his playing record? No.
Did this player uphold high standards of sportsmanship and character? Yes

Scott Rolen

Is he arguably the best player in baseball not enshrined in the Hall of Fame? No.
Is this player arguably the best player at his position of all time? No.

There’s Mike Schmidt, and then there’s all the rest of the third basemen.

Is this player arguably the best player for his franchise of all time? No.

This is a tougher one to get a “yes” on in the days of free agency, and his relatively short career was shared almost evenly between Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Cincinnati.

Is he arguably the best player at his position not enshrined in the Hall of Fame? Yes.

The only third basemen not enshrined with a better case than Rolen are Adrian Beltre, who just retired, and Alex Rodriguez, who isn’t eligible and also played half his career at short.

Are most of the players comparable to this player in the Hall of Fame? Yes.

Jim Thome was a contemporary and also played third base and was just inducted into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. He was a bigger offensive threat than Rolen, but wasn’t close to being the all-round player Rolen was. Hall-of-Famer Ron Santo is pretty much the proto-Rolen.

Did this player have a significant post-season impact? Yes.

While Rolen’s lifetime .220/.302/.376 post-season batting line isn’t going to get him in, he did have his moments. In his first playoff game, Rolen hit a decisive home run off Randy Johnson to put St. Louis ahead of the Diamondbacks in the 2002 NL Division Deries. He hit a decisive home run in Game 7 of the 2004 NLCS to put St. Louis in the World Series that year. He hit .421/.476/.737 over the 5 games of the 2006 World Series, including hitting a critical home run off Justin Verlander in Game 1.

Was he recognized as a premiere player while he was active? Yes.

Rolen was an 8-time Gold Glover and won the 1997 Rookie of the Year. He received MVP consideration four times, coming closest in his best season, 2004, when he came in 4th.

Did the player have any significant positive impact on the game not reflected in his playing record? No.
Did this player uphold high standards of sportsmanship and character? Yes.

Rolen was a relatively shy player and his calm demeanor didn’t play well with fiery Phillies manager Larry Bowa, which eventually lead to his trade to St. Louis, where Rolen enjoyed his greatest success. Rolen would later get on the wrong side of Cardinals manager Tony La Russa due to disagreements over how to handle what had become chronic shoulder issues, and despite helping each other win World Series titles that tension lead to Rolen’s trade from St. Louis, and Cardinals GM John Mozeliak later said Rolen was “the only player I regret trading.” To his teammates wherever he went he was a consummate professional, and off the field he started a foundation for special needs children.