I’ve decided to type out my process of deciding who I’d vote for if I had a 2019 Hall of Fame ballot. Let’s get straight into it.
First, I’m going to alphabetize the entire ballot and go player by player, seeing how I feel about each.
Rick Ankiel
Unfortunately, that’s pretty much the extent of it.
Jason Bay
The 2004 NL Rookie of the Year was an All-Star in ’05 and ’06 for the Pirates, was sent to Boston as part of the trade that sent ballot-mate Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers, and had his best season for the Sox in 2009, hitting .267/.384/.537 with 36 homers, another All-Star appearance, a Silver Slugger, and the only top-10 MVP finish of his career. He signed a big contract with the Mets and disappointed, so bonus points there! He’s closer to the 100th best LF of all-time than he is to a top 25 player at the position, so he’s no Hall of Famer, but he remains one of Canada’s better ballplayers.
Lance Berkman
Lance Berkman is the kind of player who is really deserving a discussion, regardless of whether or not that leads to any support for him. That should be the fun of this process – remembering and talking about really good players who maybe weren’t obvious HOF candidates back in the day. But since we struggle to elect the obviously deserving, the Berkmans of the world don’t get their day of remembrance.
Berkman slashed an impressive .293/.406/.537 for his career, was a 6-time All-Star, and a 6-time top-10 MVP finisher. That last fact is pretty surprising – Berkman is the 98th most voted for player in the history of the MVP award, as he got more attention for MVP than Hall of Famers Ryne Sandberg, Tony Gwynn, Roberto Alomar, et al. His peak seasons were really good. His rate stats, as you saw above, were great. He owns the 27th-best career OPS in MLB history. He didn’t have a long enough career to compile big career totals, though he is surprisingly top-100 in home runs (366).
Berkman is your traditional bubble candidate, a guy with something pushing him in the direction of the Hall (in Berkman’s case, how well he played) while something else holds you back (in Berkman’s case, how often he played). For now, I don’t think I’m quite convinced I’d want Berkman in the Hall of Fame, but he wouldn’t be the worst LF there.
Barry Bonds
By now, the Bonds discussion is simple. If you’re stubbornly sticking to the idea that his PED use was ethically any different from that which was rampant among Hall of Famers in the 1960’s, bully for you and your loose relationship with logic.
Bonds will eventually be elected to the Hall of Fame. The tide of public opinion continues to shift toward inclusion, so delaying that doesn’t really punish Bonds as much as it punishes borderline candidates by forcing sensible voters to keep voting for Bonds year after year. Once Bonds is elected, those votes will be freed up for someone else. Opposing Bonds’ inclusion is effectively keeping players Fred McGriff from having a chance.
Roger Clemens
Like Bonds, Clemens is a future Hall of Famer who is clogging up the ballot. Clemens has received 1088 votes for the HOF that never should have needed to be cast. Those are 1088 votes that would have been better used on borderline candidates here and there.
Freddy Garcia
It’s easy for us Braves fans to not quite appreciate how good Garcia was earlier in his career, mostly because he spent so much time in the AL Central and West. In 1999, he was the runner-up to the AL Rookie of the Year and finished 9th in CY voting. He was the All-Star ace for the 2001 Seattle Mariners, one of the best teams ever assembled, in a year where he won his only ERA title. An All-Star again in 2002, Garcia would mostly remain one of the AL’s better starters through 2006. After that, he mostly vacillated between league average and replacement level. He had a few good years, but Garcia pretty easily did not have a Hall of Fame career.
Jon Garland
Garland was an All-Star in 2005, when he went 18-10 with a 3.50 ERA and finished 6th in the CY race. That year, he’d make one quality start in Chicago’s World Series sweep. He’d remain pretty useful for a couple more seasons, and did a pretty nice job of eating innings after that. Definitely not HOF caliber, but more useful than I recalled.
Travis Hafner
Hafner was nicknamed The Project, Donkey, and Pronk, which are nicknames more rewarding than a trip to Cooperstown. Or, rather, they’re going to need to be. Donkey had a classic age-27 breakout in 2004, and for three years was one of the best sluggers in the game: .308/.419/.611 with 103 HR. In ’05 and ’06, he finished top-10 in the MVP race. After that, Pronk was mostly limited to platoon duty. Not a HOF-er.
Roy Halladay
Doc Halladay won the CYA in each league and was an 8-time All-Star. In the age of the bullpen, he led his league in complete games 7 times and topped 200 innings 8 times. He’s the 10th most voted for player in CYA history, ranks 42nd all-time in pitching bWAR, topped 200 wins, and spent several years considered the best pitcher on the planet.
His longevity may work against him in the eyes of some voters – Halladay’s career totals aren’t eyepopping, after all. However, his stature on the mound could help him. He’s probably a tad below average for a HOF starting pitcher, but that means he’s almost an average Hall of Famer. He belongs. And with his relatively recent death, I think some voters may be more willing to cast a vote in his direction.
Todd Helton
Helton has an uphill battle, considering the stupidity surrounding Larry Walker’s candidacy. If you’re thinking of the Colorado argument, don’t – Helton hit .287/.386/.469 for his career on the road. That’s better than career numbers, both home and away, of HOF-er Tony Perez and in the same ballpark as future HOF-er David Ortiz. He finished in the MVP top 10 in 3 seasons and was a 3-time Gold Glover and a 4-time Silver Slugger. His career slash stats of .316/.414/.539 rank 67th, 27th, and 36th in MLB history, respectively. His .953 OPS is top 20 in MLB history! His 592 doubles rank 19th in MLB history. He’s top 50 in walks and extra base hits, and top 100 in runs, hits, total bases, home runs, rbi, and times on base.
Todd Helton is deserving of the Hall of Fame.
Andruw Jones
Here’s a list of every player in MLB history with at least 400 home runs and 10 Gold Gloves: Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Schmidt, and Andruw Jones.
Ozzie Smith is a Hall of Famer mostly because Ozzie Smith was one of the greatest defenders of all time at a key defensive position. If Ozzie Smith had hit 400 more home runs than he did, Ozzie Smith would be Andruw Jones.
Put Andruw Jones in the Hall of Fame.
Jeff Kent
A 5-time All-Star and 4-time Silver Slugger, Kent won the 2000 NL MVP and finished top-10 in the vote another 3 times. The career stats don’t jump out at you, but he’s top 100 all-time in doubles (560), homers (377), and rbi (1518). Just imagine what could have been had Kent been more than an average-ish hitter prior to age 30. He wasn’t the greatest defender at 2B, but he did manage to play well into his thirties there, which is a rarity.
Kent is an interesting borderline candidate. As a borderline guy, the MVP award, plus his 3-HR barrage in a great 7-game World Series in 2002, kind of makes me think he might belong. He wouldn’t be the worst 2B in the Hall, although those worse include the ones inducted thanks to the old Veterans Committee notorious for its lax standards. But for now, I think he belongs.
Ted Lilly
Theodore Roosevelt Lilly was an All-Star in 2004 and 2009, the latter of which came during the best period of his career – the period in which he was a Chicago Cub. Other than all these years, he was mostly a league-average starter or worse. This may surprise you, but Ted Lilly is not a deserving Hall of Famer.
Derek Lowe
Lowe may be underappreciated by Braves fans – he was one of the team’s first major free agent expenditures in years after a lot of market inflation, so it was a bit of a struggle to understand that the highest paid pitcher on the team was paid to provide around 2-3 WAR per season. He wasn’t a star in Atlanta, nor was he paid to be. His better years came elsewhere, though. He broke through as the closer for the 2000 Red Sox, saving a league-leading 42 games and making his first All-Star team. He converted to starting in 2002 and immediately had his most successful season, making his 2nd All-Star team, finishing 3rd in the CYA vote, and going 21-8. He was a surprising ace of the 2004 postseason for the curse-busting Red Sox, just in time to cash in a huge free agent payday with the Dodgers. In LA, he transitioned into something more like a league-average innings-eater, though he did lead the NL in wins in 2006. That’s more or less what he would remain.
When one of the nice things you say about someone is “he’s probably not as much of a free agent bust as you probably thought”, you are not talking about a Hall of Famer.
Edgar Martinez
It’s not that Martinez couldn’t play defense. He was actually a pretty good defender at 3rd. It’s that Seattle valued his bat so much, they didn’t want Martinez risking injury with the wear and tear of the hot corner. Martinez is one of the best right-handed hitters in MLB history, the 21st-toughest out in the history of the game, reaching base in 41.8% of his plate appearances. He belongs.
Fred McGriff
Tom Emanski’s greatest pitch-man was a 5-time All-Star, a 3-time Silver Slugger, and 5-time top-10 MVP finisher. The Crime Dog raised his game in October, hitting .303/.385/.532 in the postseason with 10 HR in 50 career games. His 493 homers rank 28th in baseball history, and he’s top-50 in both RBI (1550) and walks (1305). McGriff played 2239 games at 1B (#3 all-time), where he was an underrated defender.
McGriff is very much a borderline candidate, relying more on career totals than any peaks of excellence. He’d bring down the first base standards of the HOF a bit, but I don’t think that would outweigh the joy of seeing Fred McGriff finally get his day in the sun. The Bonds opponents have never let this happen, clogging the ballot and robbing McGriff of attention – he would have needed a Raines-esque massive push to get in, and more importantly, he’d need some ballots with available space. Those aren’t around, so McGriff won’t make it in in this, his last year of eligibility.
Crime Dog will presumably get another shot via the “Today’s Game” Committee. When he’s there, hopefully there will be no one accidentally blocking him with their own hubris.
Mike Mussina
Mussina is a poster child for voter laziness, as Moose didn’t get to the easy 300 wins total or win a CYA. Never mind that he won 270 games in a bullpen-dominated era. Never mind that he finished in the top 6 of the CYA vote in 9 different seasons. Or that he won 7 Gold Gloves or saved some of his greatest performances for the postseason. Mussina was one of his league’s best pitchers nearly every year of his career, but certain numbers were hampered by pitching in baseball’s most elite division.
Moose will get in – he hit 63.5% last year, his 5th year of eligibility – and he deserves to.
Darren Oliver
Darren Oliver’s Hall of Fame is seeing his name on this ballot. He had some promise as a starter, then flatlined as one of the worst starters in the game, and then enjoyed a renaissance as a LOOGY during the latter stages of his career. He was a pretty good reliever, but hardly remarkable enough to earn a vote here.
Roy Oswalt
There was a point in time when Oswalt seemed as easy a pick for the HOF before turning 30 as any. After all, through his age-30 season, he had 129 wins, a 3.13 career ERA, 5 top-5 CYA finishes, 3 All-Stars, and a reputation as one of MLB’s best workhorses. The work caught up. His production dipped a bit at age 31, bounced back at age 32, and after that went 13-19 with a 4.92 ERA over the last 230 innings of his suddenly shortened career. It’s not a HOF career, due mostly to its brevity, but it was an impressive one for a time.
Andy Pettitte
Pettitte won at least 10 games in 16 different seasons, winning 256 overall. A 5-time World Champion with 19 career postseason wins who ranks in the top 50 in strikeouts (2448) and top 100 in innings (3316) may seem like a solid Hall of Famer. Especially when he did much of that with the Yankees. However, much of that winning came with an all-time great lineup behind him. While he was indeed a good pitcher, there’s a sense that he was a good pitcher masquerading as a great one due to the prowess of his teammates. I think Pettitte falls a bit short of inclusion, but his case is an interesting one to discuss.
Juan Pierre
In one of the early iterations of MLB: The Show, Juan Pierre was a walking cheat code – drop a bunt to the third base side, and he’d beat it out almost every time. You could hit .400 with Pierre and never swing. In that virtual world, I would have voted for Juan Pierre for the HOF. While this exercise is also playing pretend in a virtual space, I won’t be voting for him here. Pierre was impressive at staying healthy, playing in 821 consecutive games from 2002-2007. His 614 steals rank 18th all-time, and his 203 times caught stealing rank 6th.
Placido Polanco
Polanco put together a sneaky-good career. He went to two All-Star games. He was a 3-time Gold Glover. He won a Silver Slugger award. He was MVP of the 2006 ALCS. Did you know Placido Polanco has the all-time record for fielding percentage by a second baseman at .993? Compare that to the all-time record for fielding percentage by a third baseman, which is .983. Oh, that record is also held by Placido Polanco. That’s a pretty terrific statistical combination, but more for trivial purposes than anything. Fielding percentage merely measures error avoidance, which is the smallest part of defense. And without much else to really say, Polanco is an easy “no” for the Hall. Still, it’s worth taking a look back at a guy we probably never fully appreciated when he was in the game.
Manny Ramirez
Manny was a 12-time All-Star, won 9 Silver Sluggers, and put up the kind of career numbers that typically mean instant induction. Unfortunately, he received some PED-related suspensions near the end of his career. That career ended in un-ceremonious fashion, going 1 for 17 for the 2011 Rays. Manny falls into the Bonds/Clemens camp. He belongs in the Hall and will probably wind up there, but histrionics will keep him at bay for now. His .993 OPS is 8th-best in MLB history. He ranks 15th in HR (555), 19th in RBI (1831), and though he never won an MVP award, he did finish in the top 10 in voting 9 times.
Mariano Rivera
How much convincing do you need that the greatest closer of all time belongs in the HOF?
Rivera has the best ERA+ (which is adjusted for ballpark, the era in which you play, and other factors) in MLB history. And while you knew he was an excellent postseason pitcher, this is worth revisiting: in 141 postseason innings, he went 8-1 with a 0.70 ERA and 42 saves. He’s a legend, and he obviously belongs in the Hall of Fame.
Scott Rolen
Rolen is one of the best 3B in history, but voters have historically been stingy on enshrining third basemen. It would be nice if the 1997 Rookie of the Year, a 7-time All-Star and 8-time Gold Glover, can expand the numbers a bit. While his career numbers may underwhelm, he is 75th in MLB history in extra-base hits. The combo of steady solid production with defensive prowess should eventually earn him a trip to Cooperstown. He belongs.
Curt Schilling
Curt Schilling is a bit of a creep, a pretty unlikable guy. He’s also a pretty easy choice, in my opinion, for enshrinement in the Hall. Schilling is probably the best postseason pitcher in history, going 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA, with many of those games coming in must-win situations. The 6-time All-Star never won a CYA, but he finished 2nd three times and 4th once. He ranks 85th all-time in wins (216), 99th in innings (3261), 15th in strikeouts (3116), and an impressive 5th in K:BB ratio. He was co-MVP of one of the best World Series ever played and had 3 seasons with over 300 Ks. He belongs, regardless of what kind of person he is.
Gary Sheffield
As Clemens and Bonds gain traction for the HOF, it must be really frustrating for Sheffield. Sheffield was involved in the BALCO scandal, but fully admitted to taking something, claiming he didn’t know what it was. Without getting lost in the weeds over whether or not that was true, Sheffield seems much more forthcoming about his experimentation than either Clemens or Bonds. Sheff topped 500 homers but falls a bit short of many other Hall benchmark round numbers. Sheffield is a tougher choice, even if you don’t care about the PED use, and I think I land on the side of not including him. But Sheff’s case is one that should be closer to the borderline, ripe for debate and reflection. But, coming off an 11.1% showing last year, that’s clearly not the case.
Sammy Sosa
Gary Sheffield was named on 11.1% of the ballots last year. It’s even stranger that Sammy Sosa, a better baseball player who also used PEDs, made it onto just 7.8%. Then again, Sosa’s post-playing career has been no stranger to the weird. That may have contributed to his poor ballot performance. The numbers are nowhere close to Bonds, but the numbers are good enough for the Hall.
Miguel Tejada
La Gua Gua was a workhorse, appearing in at least 156 games 11 times in a 12 year span. He was the AL MVP in 2002 when he sparked Oakland to a 20 game winning streak and a division title. After signing with Baltimore a year later, he would have his best season in 2004, slashing .311/.360/.534 with 34 HR and an eye-popping 150 RBI. A 6 time All-Star and 2-time Silver Slugger, Tejada ranks in the top 100 in MLB history in doubles (468). He’s one of the 50 best shortstops in MLB history, and better than some Hall of Famers like Travis Jackson or Phil Rizzuto. There’s a case for Tejada, but not on this ballot.
Omar Vizquel
“Little O” was a pretty good ballplayer for a very long time, which presents an interesting dilemma for HOF voters. Now that Harold Baines is elected, Vizquel (along with MANY players on this list) has a good argument. Vizquel was a 3 time All-Star and 11 time Gold Glove winner. He’s one of the best defenders in MLB history, and if relievers have a place in the Hall, why shouldn’t defenders? You’ll find him in the top 100 in MLB history in many longevity-related milestones: games played (12th), plate appearances (20th), hits (43rd), stolen bases (72nd), assists (5th), and, naturally, outs made (7th). No player in MLB history played more games at SS than Vizquel’s 2709. He’s not as good a player as Miguel Tejada was, and Vizquel’s induction would make a lot of other arguments easier. He’d be one of the worst shortstops in the HOF, but someone has to be, so I’m not completely opposed to his induction. He’s probably a top-50 shortstop in big league history, but he’s closer to 50 than he is to 1, so he won’t get a vote from me.
Billy Wagner
The 7 time All-Star twice finished in the top 6 of the CYA vote and was seen as one of the best relievers of his era. 1999 was his best season, picking up 39 saves with a 1.57 ERA and a whopping 124 Ks in just 74.2 innings. He finished 16th in the MVP race and was named the Rolaids Relief Man of the Year. His 422 saves still rank 6th all-time, and he had just as good a career as Trevor Hoffman. He’s probably the best left-handed reliever of the modern usage era, and he has a very good argument for inclusion.
Larry Walker
George Brett, a first ballot Hall of Famer, had a career OBP of .369 and a career SLG of .487. Brett, a one time MVP and one time Gold Glover, should absolutely be in the Hall of Fame, and no one has ever questioned his inclusion. Larry Walker had a career OBP of .370 and a career SLG of .495 – on the road. If you completely discount his performance at Coors Field – which itself is silly but I digress – then we are left with a 7-time Gold Glover who also won an MVP and was, more or less, George Brett at the plate. If George Brett were a better defender, would you still want him in the HOF? If the answer is yes, you should support Larry Walker’s inclusion. Walker ranks in the top 100 in MLB history in batting average (79th), on-base percentage (55th), slugging (12th), doubles (89th), and home runs (66th). He is easily the best RF in MLB history that isn’t in the Hall already, especially among eligible players (which eliminates Joe Jackson from the discussion, though, frankly, Walker is better). Walker doesn’t just belong – he’d raise the Hall’s standards for right field. It should be a no-brainer, but the brainless of the voting pool are reluctant because they have a merely cursory understanding of park factors.
Vernon Wells
Wells was a 3 time All-Star, a 3-time Gold Glover, and a 1-time Silver Slugger. His best years were 2003 (.317/.359/.550, leading the league in hits, doubles, and total bases) and 2006 (.303/.357/.542 with the short-lived added dimension of baserunning talent). Down the road, he’d sign a big contract and finish out his career as a financial albatross. Wells is probably a top-100 CF in MLB history, which isn’t HOF territory, but he deserves a better place in our memory than the end of his career probably inspired.
Kevin Youkilis
Obligatory “Greek God of Walks” mention, though he didn’t really live up the moniker in the bigs, placing in the top 10 in free passes just once. Youk had a pretty short career, but for around 5 years from 2006-2010, he was an elite 1B. He was a quiet star, deriving most of his value from defense and doubles. He mashed in October (.306/.376/.568), and his 2007 ALCS is one of the greatest single-series offensive performances in playoff history. All this comes nowhere close to earning a vote, but it’s nice to look back on a memorable player on a memorable team.
Michael Young
Young was a 7 time All-Star, a Gold Glove shortstop, and finished with a .300 career batting average. That Gold Glove may have been a little wonky – his best defensive years were at 2nd – but Young’s durability and workmanlike approach earned him fans. Despite the All-Star appearances, he just wasn’t good enough to really warrant attention for the Hall of Fame.
My Ballot
If you read the recent results of OFR’s interior electing process, you already know my ballot. But for another pass:
- Barry Bonds
- Roger Clemens
- Roy Halladay
- Todd Helton
- Andruw Jones
- Edgar Martinez
- Mike Mussina
- Scott Rolen
- Curt Schilling
- Larry Walker
There are two notable exclusions I’d like to explain. I approached this vote from the perspective of what I’d do if I had a real-life vote. With that in mind, I have to be aware of the voting body. I didn’t vote for Mariano Rivera or Fred McGriff for these reasons.
In the case of Rivera, he will easily earn induction, as he should. He doesn’t need my vote, but 10 other players might. If I’m the one who keeps Rivera from unanimity, I’m not all that sorry – this ballot process doesn’t lend itself to unanimous choices. If each player was a binary decision, he’d have been an easy yes for me. But when the HOF limits me to 10 votes, it forces me to vote a little more carefully.
As for the Crime Dog, I just think he’s out of time, unfortunately. In McGriff’s penultimate year on the ballot, he got just 23.2% of the vote. His path to the Hall realistically isn’t through a vote. Instead, he’ll likely get in via the Harold Baines route down the road when some friends of his wind up on the Veteran’s Committee. I’d like McGriff to be in the Hall, but voting for him this year is akin to throwing a vote away. I opted instead to use my vote on Helton in his first year, hoping that he doesn’t wind up similarly ignored and underappreciated (or blocked) like McGriff.
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