Welcome back to the Hot Stove Report, your semi-regular capsule of all of the off-season news, rumors, transactions, and winter league action for the Atlanta Braves. Check in with us every week through the start of spring training as we sift though everything Braves.
The Pros and Cons of Dallas Keuchel
The top starting pitcher left on the free agent market is two-time All-Star, 2015 Cy Young Award winner, and former Houston Astro Dallas Keuchel. Rumors on the left-hander have been scarce; at one point last week a reunion with Houston was strongly hinted at, but then the team signed left-hander Wade Miley to a one-year deal, presumably to start as he did with Milwaukee in 2018. While that doesn’t completely quash a Keuchel re-union, on paper at least that gives the Astros a five-man rotation of Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Collin McHugh, Miley, and either Josh James or Framber Valdez, both rookies who made some starts for Houston in 2018 to good effect. Houston also has the consensus best pitching prospect in baseball, Forrest Whitley, who will presumably challenge for a spot at some point during the season.
Other teams rumored to have at least some interest in Keuchel are the Milwaukee Brewers, the Cincinnati Reds (though that was before their acquisition of right-hander Sonny Gray), the Philadelphia Phillies, the San Diego Padres, and Atlanta. Keuchel and his agent Scott Boras were rumored to be seeking a five-year deal for the 30-year-old, and that seems to be the main reason for his slow market. To date there’s been only two contracts signed this offseason by free agents longer than 4 years (A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin). The situation is playing out similarly to last off-season’s Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb markets. Both were looking for 5-year deals, and both ended up waiting until after the start of spring training before signing. Arrieta ended up settling for a 3-year deal with Philadelphia; Cobb managed to get a 4-year with Baltimore, but at a lower yearly value.
Unlike Arrieta or Cobb however, Keuchel is coming off a season where he threw over 200 innings. Keuchel also is almost two years younger than Arrieta was when he hit free agency as well, so a longer term isn’t so far out of the realm of possibility. For Keuchel however, the lack of movement in his free agency may have much to do with the type of pitcher he is.
Keuchel is an extreme groundball pitcher. His 53.7% groundball rate paced all of baseball in 2018 among qualified starters, and that is no fluke. Keuchel’s career groundball rate is even higher, 58.8%. Keuchel at his best has all five of his pitches — four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter, slider, and change-up — dipping and diving and jinking out of the zone and inducing weak contact. In 2015, he did that so well he was the runaway Cy Young Award winner, garnering 22 out of 30 first place votes. Fast forward to 2018 however, and more of those pitches are finding bigger pieces of the plate. Batters hit line-drives off Keuchel at a 22% rate last year, the first time hitters have gotten over 20% on Keuchel in five seasons.
The question for teams pursuing Keuchel is if that could just be a one-time blip, or if that’s a sign of decline. If the latter, how gradual will that decline be, and how much do teams want to pay for it?
For different perspectives, I asked two colleagues their opinions on Dallas Keuchel.
He’s a groudball guy, which means he relies on giving up contact. That’s already a lesser margin of error in today’s game, plus he really isn’t much of an upgrade over the bottom of our rotation right now. If he were priced like Kevin Gausman then maybe, but even then you’re banking on his floor being higher than the young guys, but his ceiling is significantly lower. He had that weird breakout season, but that’s really the only time he’s looked like a top-of-the-rotation pitcher.
– Dylan Short, OFR contributor and co-host of The Platinum Sombrero Podcast
I don’t like the move in a vacuum. That would give the Braves a Foltynewicz, Keuchel, Gausman, Newcomb, Teheran rotation with no room for Soroka or Toussaint. Plus it would cost a second-round pick. Now if there were other moves like a Teheran trade I’d be a little intrigued with his moving from the American League plus his ability to get groundballs with the Braves infield defense. If they did sign him, I’m sure it would be with significant input from Brian McCann and [new Special Assistant to the General Manager and former head of Houston’s R&D department] Mike Fast.
– Matt Chrietzberg, OFR contributor and Farm Report co-writer
Realmuto Hostage Crisis, Week 60
The Miami Marlins have been disciplined and stubborn, waiting out the many suitors for All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto to get at least one to agree to a return package of players close to their asking price which by all accounts has been two top prospects, at least one of which with either major league experience or who is close to the majors. A week from today, February 12, pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report to Marlins spring training. After this second off-season where the team was openly shopping him, it seems highly unlikely that the Marlins want to get to that date with Realmuto still on the roster.
While it’s no hard-and-fast deadline, almost certainly the Realmuto Hostage Crisis is coming to a close.
The question now is which team will end up consummating the deal, and what will be the return package. At least according to SirusXM and Marlins Podcast host Craig Mish, the Braves have long had the best offer on the table for Realmuto, even with the Astros, Padres, Reds, Dodgers, and Rays all at different points making their own runs. The reason the Marlins haven’t moved yet is that the Braves offer is still less than what they want and their reluctance to trade within the division.
All it takes is one team to raise their offer however, and it seems unlikely that the Braves will get into a bidding war for Realmuto.
Braves Add Pasquale on Minor League Deal
Late last week, the Braves signed veteran minor leaguer Nick Pasquale and assigned him to AA Mississippi.
Pasquale was a 2014 20th-round draft pick by Cleveland and had spent his whole pro career with that organization. For the last three seasons he’s played a sort of gunslinger role, playing at three levels each season, both starting and relieving. Pasquale exclusively relieved last season, playing at advanced-A, AA, and AAA levels, pitching to a 3.21 ERA in 22 games for AAA Akron.
Pasquale has a habit of outpitching his peripherals, notably poor strikeout-to-walk ratios. Pasquale did play in the Venezuelan Winter League this offseason and struck out five batters in 5.1 innings.
Rumors, News, and Innuendo
- Last week national writer Jon Heyman tweeted that “folks around the game suspect the Braves are lying in the weeds for superstar closer Craig Kimbrel. Other possibilities include Phillies, Nats, Red Sox, Twins, and of course, a mystery team.” One of those teams has apparently emerged as a favorite for the former Braves closer, but it’s not the Braves. The Minnesota Twins are reportedly pursuing Kimbrel, with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal predicting that the Twins will land the free agent flamethrower.
- There are roughly 100 free agents remaining on the market a week before most spring training camps start. While that’s a lot of people, only 12 of those ~100 had a fWAR over 1.0 in 2018, and only 12 are projected by Fangraphs to have a fWAR of at least 1.0. I mention this because national writers are using the raw number of free agents remaining as evidence that the free agent market is broken. While the system is pretty bad for a lot of reasons, in the end there’s only a small number of true difference-makers left on the free agent market.
- The Miami Marlins signed free agent infielder Neil Walker last week. I mention this in conjunction with my note above, as it looks like it’s close to the time when marginal players will start settling in on non-guaranteed contracts with contending teams or, as Walker did, a guaranteed contract with a non-contending team. Expect a slew of these types of contracts as the week continues as players come to grips with the possibility of not starting spring training on a roster.
Your Moment of Zen
William Contreras, the younger brother of #Cubs catcher Willson, just missed our list of #MLB's Top 10 catching prospects, and he's the #Braves' top prospect not on our Top 100 list. Here's a look at each team's best non-Top 100 prospect: https://t.co/1fNOaIdEpT pic.twitter.com/KqTy4aHC4i
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) February 1, 2019
Leave a Reply