Spring training is less than month away, and though there will be acquisitions before (and possibly after) pitchers and catchers report, this series will take a look at the players mostly likely to suit up at each level of the organization.
The pitcher section of this series will be a little different from the position players. Part of that is the greater uncertainty that just comes with filling 5 spots rather than 1, but also the sheer depth of pitching in the system means there will likely be a lot of in-season movement between levels. I will go by 4- or 5-man depth chart tiers rather than by organizational level. Note, these aren’t prospect tiers, but approximately where in the organization I anticipate the player to start the season.
Also in this series:
First Base | Second Base | Third Base | Shortstop | Catcher | Centerfield | Corner Outfield
TIER ONE
Barring unforeseen misadventure or trade, these tier one pitchers essentially have guaranteed spots in the major league rotation.
Mike Foltynewicz
Mike Foltynewicz emerged last season as the top starter on the staff after three years of tantalizing but uneven production. He did so by striking out nearly 10 batters per 9 innings and limiting hard contact. This was achieved by Foltynewicz settling on his sinker and slider as his primary compliments to his high-90s fastball. Further refinements to his pitches would help solidify his spot atop the Braves rotation, and further improvement on his walk rate could put him in the Cy Young conversation.
Sean Newcomb
Sean Newcomb’s raw stuff takes a back seat to no one on the Braves staff, and when he can get it into games he can be special, as demonstrated on July 29, 2018 when he no-hit the Dodgers through 8.2 innings. Newcomb pitched a career high 164 innings in 2018 and it appeared he hit a wall in August where his pitches just didn’t have the same life to them as they had earlier; batters hit .327/.398/.527 off Newcomb in August, while the lefty held hitters to a .200/.297/.321 line in all other months. With his first full major league season under his belt and perhaps the game-planning tutelage of new pitching coach Rick Kranitz and catcher Brian McCann, Newcomb could be set up for a break-out season. The Braves seemed to give Newcomb a vote of confidence by starting him in Game 3 of the NLDS.
Kevin Gausman
The trade that brought Kevin Gausman to Atlanta last off-season was one of the quietest of the deadline trades, but also one of the more impactful. Gausman pitched nearly 60 innings for Atlanta down the stretch, bringing relief and reliability to a taxed pitching staff. Even better, he pitched as well as he ever had before, posting a 2.87 ERA that was a run and a half better than the previous four months with the Orioles. There are four reasons usually cited for this improvement: 1) abandonment of a nascent change-up in favor of the splitter, 2) allowing him to move to a more comfortable side of the pitching rubber, 3) playing in front of a good defense, and 4) getting out of the AL East and into the National League. This will be put to the test this season as Gausman is a notoriously slow first-half starter, but that the Braves addressed an immediate concern and also acquired a pitcher as talented as Gausman with two years of team control at the deadline is a quiet coup for Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos and his front office.
Julio Teheran
Teheran rebounded from a somewhat disastrous 2017 season, lowering his ERA by half a run. The season didn’t start off looking that great however, and at the end of April, Teheran was sitting with a 4.50 ERA after allowing 42 baserunners in 30 innings. It was about this time that veteran starter Anibal Sanchez took Teheran under his wing, and Teheran’s pitching pattern began to change. Teheran started limiting his favorite pitch, his two-seam fastball, and started relying on his slider. By June, Teheran was throwing his slider more than the two-seamer. His change-up also rose in his repertoire. In short, he was less aggressive in the strikezone, and hitters had a more difficult time barreling the ball. The result was that hitters ended up only hitting .196/.298/.374 against him. More pitches out of the zone meant more walks, but Teheran compensated by limiting both contact and hard contact. Teheran ended up allowing only a .217 average on balls in play. Is this sustainable? Probably not, but if Teheran can keep pitching to a sub-4.00 ERA and make 30+ starts a season, he will be well worth his $11.1 million salary and could be in line to have his $12 million option picked up for 2020.
TIER TWO
Tier two pitchers are all candidates for the fifth-starter slot in the major league rotation; those that don’t get that job will likely rotate in on an as-needed basis and will be the primary pool of injury replacements.
Mike Soroka
Since mid-season 2017, the Braves have had a long stream of high-profile prospects make their major league debuts. Sean Newcomb, Max Fried, Ozzie Albies, A.J. Minter, Luiz Gohara, Ronald Acuna… and on May 1 of last season, right-hander Mike Soroka ascended to a major league pitcher’s mound for the first time. Soroka outdueled Mets fireballer Noah Syndergaard in New York during that debut. Soroka found himself on the DL just two weeks later however with with what was termed as routine shoulder inflammation. When Soroka returned he faced the Mets again, this time outdueling Mets ace and 2018 Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom and Soroka’s presumed ascension seemed back on track. Soroka would only go 4 innings in his next start in front of a slew of family and friends in Toronto however, and he ended up back on the shelf with shoulder tendinitis, and it would end up costing him the rest of the season.
There are two schools of thought about Soroka’s injury. One is that any problem with a pitcher’s shoulder is very concerning, and that has lead to Soroka dropping on many Braves prospect lists. The other is that tendinitis, while not anything to shrug off, is a malady that happens to nearly every pitcher in their careers. The Braves wisely played is conservatively with Soroka, who reportedly could have come back to pitch down the stretch if necessary. Given that I have Soroka firmly atop my prospect list, you can guess which way I lean. The fifth starter battle this spring should be fascinating, with eight young, talented pitchers all on the 40-man roster, all with options, and all good enough to show out for six weeks enough to grab the spot. Even so, I wouldn’t bet against Soroka.
Max Fried
There was a moment in the 2018 season when it seemed like the stars were aligned for Max Fried to seize a spot in the rotation on a permanent basis. With Anibal Sanchez, Mike Soroka, and Brandon McCarthy all suffering injuries around the same time, Fried was recalled to make a start against the Mets on May 28. That went well enough to get another start, and it was a beauty, a 6.2 inning, 11 strikeout performance against St. Louis. His next start, he suffered a foot contusion on a come-backer against the Brewers that knocked him out for three weeks. He got one more start at the end of July, but by then the wheels were in motion for the Kevin Gausman trade. Fried was worked out of the bullpen after that and pitched well in limited opportunities, good enough to be included on the postseason roster and actually appearing in all four games.
In short, it was a season where Fried seemed to take one step backward for every two steps forward from a career standpoint, but from a scouting standpoint there was a lot to like from Fried. His curveball, already one of the best individual pitches in the organization, got better plane and movement and is now a legitimate weapon against both right-handed and lefty hitters. Even better, Fried avoided the recurrence of the blister problems that afflicted him his prior two seasons. The organization clearly has confidence in him, placing him front-and-center when the games were on the line in the playoffs, and it seems unlikely that even if he doesn’t win the 5th-starter spot this spring that he won’t make the major league roster.
Touki Toussaint
The 2018 season will be known to Touki fans as when his production caught up with his promise. After years of trying to come up with a solid third pitch, Toussaint settled in with a split-finger change-up that became a true weapon in the second half of the season and helped propel him not only to the major leagues, but into the postseason where he pitched 3 scoreless innings in relief. Toussaint is a very viable candidate for a rotation spot, but could also return to the Atlanta bullpen where he could be available for spot starts or long relief stints as needed.
Luiz Gohara
The prohibitive favorite to win the fifth-starter spot last season, the sudden loss of his father in the off-season followed by two spring injuries got Gohara flat-footed and his 2018 season never fully recovered. By the end he didn’t even get a September call-up due to nagging injuries. The good news is that he has apparently lost weight during the rehab process this offseason. Could he be in the Best Shape Of His Life this spring?
Facetiousness aside, Gohara is still a force to be reckoned with if he gets his body and mind back in harmony, as fans saw in 2017. His fastball/slider combination from the left side is still one of the most deadly combos of any Braves pitcher.
TIER THREE
Each of the tier three pitchers are on the 40-man roster and will have outside shots at the 5th-starter spot, but this is most likely the core of the AAA Gwinnett rotation to start the season.
Bryse Wilson
Wilson introduced himself to Atlanta with a superb five shutout inning start against Pittsburgh. His two September relief outings were less impressive, but it was still an incredible season for Wilson, who was a 4th-round high school selection in just 2016 and who started the season in advanced-A Florida. Wilson’s calling cards are good control, a mid-90s fastball with bite, and a tremendous competitive drive. Further development of his secondary pitches will be key to Wilson’s future role.
Kyle Wright
The Braves’ first-round draft pick in 2017, Wright got to the majors in his first full professional season. He did so on the strength of continued improvement nearly each time out to the mound at AA and AAA, and his four-pitch arsenal should play well in a major league rotation in the near future. Other than Soroka, he may be the most polished of the top pitching prospects, and further refinements of his command could have him back in Atlanta before too long, if he doesn’t win a spot straight out of spring training.
Kolby Allard
Like so many Braves pitching prospects, Allard zoomed through the minor league system, joining fellow 2015 first-rounder Mike Soroka as the youngest pitchers at first the AA level in 2017 then the AAA level to start 2018. Both made their major debuts in 2018 as well. That said, Allard’s path has taken a sideways turn. Allard’s velocity has dipped each of the past three seasons, and his fastball now averages under 90 mph. Allard has made it work at the minor league level thanks to good control, deception, and solid secondary pitches but there is now very real concern that won’t be enough at the major league level. Allard’s command isn’t so strong that he doesn’t leave pitches over the plate, and major league hitter didn’t have much trouble getting good rips off of him in his brief major league sample. Allard is very young — he won’t turn 22 until August — and some mechanical tweaks could help him regain that lost velocity, giving him a bigger margin of error.
Patrick Weigel
In mid-summer of ’17, the Braves had three starting pitchers in Gwinnett knocking on the door of the big leagues and a Bartolo Colon-sized hole developing in the rotation. Sean Newcomb was the first pitcher to get his shot, but before he felt a pop in his elbow it looked like Weigel would be right behind him. Weigel had his UCL replaced and pitched late in the 2018 season with the GCL Braves in a few tune-up appearances. The Braves were encouraged enough by his progress that they protected him on the 40-man roster in November to keep him from Rule 5 eligibility.
The first full season after UCL surgery is always a bit tricky, but getting into those late-season games may help Weigel back in the saddle quicker. The question then is how the Braves plan to utilize him. Weigel primarily pitched out of the bullpen in college, and given his injury and the pitching log-jam, the Braves may go ahead and have him make that move. If that happens, he could be in Atlanta very quickly as his fastball/curve combination can be devastating.
TIER FOUR
The tier four pitchers are advanced pitchers that are all probably good enough to pitch in at least the AAA level now, but could see time at AA just because of the depth in the system. There are two top prospects that will likely start the season in AA Mississippi and two pitchers that have experience both starting and relieving and could potentially be important swingmen at almost any level.
Ian Anderson
Anderson was the #3 overall draft selection in 2016 and his stock has only risen since then as he’s so far improved both his skills and his production as he’s progressed. The main concern with Anderson was his stamina as he was somewhat skinny coming out of high school (he also had just had a bought of pneumonia), and the organization carefully controlled his innings in his first two pro seasons. Last season went a long way toward erasing some of those doubts as Anderson pitched nearly 120 innings between advanced-A and AA levels, and only a string of poorly timed late-season rainouts kept him from 130+ innings. Anderson continues to demonstrate not just good “stuff”, but an advanced feel for the craft of pitching. With improved control, Anderson has a shot to be a true top-of-the-rotation major league pitcher within a few years.
Kyle Muller
No Braves pitching prospect improved his stock in 2018 more than Kyle Muller. After completely re-vamping his mechanics after a season where he saw his fellow high-round 2016 draftmates leave him behind in extended spring training and rookie league ball in 2017, Muller reported to Rome with a delivery that utilized his 6′-6″, 225 pound frame better and sacrificing a few mph off the fastball for tighter command. Muller would end up climbing two levels over the course of 2018, and like Anderson he got stronger with each level.
Wes Parsons
Parsons has been a steady minor league performer over the last three seasons and made his major league debut in 2018. A groundball specialist who has shown an aptitude for going from starting to relieving and back again, Parsons is a useful player at essentially any level. What could be an issue is 40-man roster room, which is full of higher-ceiling pitchers.
Michael Mader
Mader improved on a disastrous 2017 season by lowering his walk rate, but he still allows far too many baserunners to be considered a major league option at this point. Last season he had value as a swingman at both AAA Gwinnett and AA Mississippi, a role I would expect him to continue this season, his last before achieving minor league free agency.
TIER FIVE
This tier has pitchers that would start the season at AA in normal organizations, but could be in advanced-A to start 2019 simply due to depth.
Joey Wentz
Arguably the best starting pitcher in a Rome rotation in 2017 that included Bryse Wilson and Ian Anderson, Wentz upped his game with advanced-A Florida when he was able to get to the mound. The problem was that oblique and shoulder issues limited him to only 67 innings. If healthy, Wentz could quickly climb up the organizational ladder with his advanced feel for pitching and two above average secondary pitches. The organization signaled its belief in Wentz when they issued him a non-roster big league spring training invitation.
Tucker Davidson
A 19th-round 2016 draft selection, Davidson has far exceeded his pedigree by holding his own in minor league rotations filled with high-round picks. A left-hander who’s fastball regularly sits in the mid-90s, Davidson struggled with command in his first exposure to advanced-A ball, but progressed as the season went on and was especially good in August. Davidson pitched from the bullpen until mid-season 2017, and his stuff could play there in the future. Like Wentz, Davidson go at non-roster spring training invite.
Jeremy Walker
Walker is a groundball pitcher who projects to put up better production as he climbs the organizational ladder and the defensive talent playing behind him improves. Anecdotally that bore out in his last start of the season, an emergency start for Gwinnett where he shut out Charlotte on 3 hits in 8 innings thanks to getting 11 groundouts. Walker was an Arizona Fall League participant and is a dark horse candidate to pitch in any rotation in the upper minors.
Matt Withrow
Withrow missed all of the 2018 season with an undisclosed injury. In 2017 he started the season with Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, and Patrick Weigel in the AA Mississippi rotation and more than held his own. Before the injury Withrow threw a heavy fastball that generated groundballs and was developing a good slider for swing-and-miss.
TIER SIX
This tier consists mostly of pitchers well in their 20s with significant lower-minors or high-level collegiate experience. Some of these pitchers will likely form the core of the advanced-A Florida Fire Frogs rotation.
Tristan Beck
Beck was Atlanta’s 4th-round pick in 2018 out of Stanford, a highly-coveted high school pitcher who decided to go to college and ended up missing his sophomore season with a stress fracture in his back. Beck returned to the mound for his junior season and while he showed some rustiness, he pitched well enough for the Braves to select him. It turns out the Braves had long coveted the right-hander, and was prepared to take him with the 28th overall pick in 2015 if he decided against going to school. The Braves limited Beck to 4.2 innings in the GCL, but by all accounts he is healthy and showing off four strong pitches.
Huascar Ynoa
Ynoa got his first taste of advanced-A ball late last season, and while the performance looked ugly, there is a lot to be excited about. Ynoa continues to show an improving fastball that now regularly sits in the mid-90s and a change-up that can be devastating when he’s got a feel for it. The Braves protected the soon-to-be 21-year-old on the 40-man roster, and while there is still starter potential here, there is reason to believe that move to the bullpen could advance Ynoa quickly.
Walter Borkovich
A non-drafted minor league free agent out of Michigan State in 2017, Borkovich has done nothing but consistently get batters out as a professional. Working out of the bullpen until July last season, Borkovich was pressed into the Fire Frogs rotation and only threw 17 shutout innings over three starts. Borkovich is a groundball pitcher that primarily works from a two-seam sinking fastball and a slider but also has the capacity to generate swing-and-miss when needed, able to reach back for 95 mph on a four-seamer. Borkovich could start the season in Florida or Mississippi as either a starter or a reliever.
Connor Johnstone
No Braves minor league likely racked up more mileage on his car than Connor Johnstone in 2018. The Roswell, GA native and 21st-rounder out of Wake Forest was involved in an astounding 20 transactions last season, nearly all of them assignments to different levels of the organization as he posted innings for Florida, Mississippi, and Gwinnett as both a starter and a reliever. Basically whenever the organization had a hole in a roster, Connor Johnstone was the guy sent to fill it, and he did so very well, pitching to a combined 3.30 ERA among all three levels.
TIER SEVEN
Tier seven pitchers are young 2018 Rome veterans that could see advancement to Florida or return to Rome to continue to refine their game or because of system depth.
Freddy Tarnok
Tarnok is perhaps the most exciting young pitching prospect in the lower minors. Some of this is thanks to the Braves failing to sign their first overall pick in 2018 and going with college players in most other rounds, but a lot of it is because Tarnok has the makings of a really good pitcher. Tarnok worked out of the bullpen in the first half of the season to conserve his innings, but showed steady improvement with his secondary pitches. He will likely start the 2019 season with the innings cap taken off.
Jasseel De La Cruz
De La Cruz showed flashes of dominance with Rome in 2018, but injuries kept him under 70 innings and affected his overall performance. When healthy, De La Cruz shows a lively fastball and strong secondary offerings with a slider and an improving change-up. The talent is there for a bump to Florida.
Alan Rangel
Rangel was a workhorse for Rome in 2018, totaling over 125 innings as a 20-year-old and was especially strong in the second half of the season as he discovered another gear on his fastball, which went from sitting in the upper-80s to the lower 90s, giving more separation with his change-up.
Odalvi Javier
Another Rome workhorse in 2018, Javier lead the team in innings pitched and does a nice job keeping his team in games. Like Rangel, Javier’s fastball jumped up a notch as the season progressed, and he’s able to spot it enough to set up a good slider. Progress on his change-up will determine if he remains a starter or moves to the bullpen, and now at 22 years old, it may be better for his prospects if he goes ahead and makes that change.
Keith Weisenberg
A 14th-rounder in 2017, Weisenberg was promoted to Rome in July as three-fifths of the rotation were promoted out. Wesienberg is a contact-oriented pitcher with good groundball tendencies and seems like likely swingman in either Rome or Florida to start 2019.
TIER EIGHT
Tier eight pitchers all pitched in the rookie leagues in 2018 and are candidates to start the season in the Rome rotation, though some may be relievers and some may be held back in extended spring training until opportunities arise.
Trey Riley
Possessing the highest ceiling of this tier of pitchers, Riley was Atlanta’s 5th-round pick in 2018. Riley has two potentially lethal pitches, a high-90s fastball and a low 90’s slider with significant movement, and he could be a high-leverage reliever, but for now expect the Braves to put him in a rotation to work on his third pitch, a change-up.
Matt Rowland
Rowland returned from essentially two seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery to throw 54 innings for Danville, his control and command improving as the season progressed. Rowland has a potentially strong fastball/curveball combination that could make him a very interesting follow in his first year of full-season ball.
Dilmer Mejia
Mejia started pitching in the the DSL as a 16 year old and will be Rule 5 eligible next year at the ripe old age of 22. The lefty was named the Appalachian League Pitcher of the Year for his work in Danville, an accomplishment driven by good command of a low-90s fastball ans solid change-up and curve.
Tanner Lawson
Lawson was a 21st-round 2018 pick who posted a 6:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio at Danville. That will earn the lefty another look at the next level, as will the tendency to not allow Appalachian League hitters to barrel the ball.
Nolan Kingham
Kingham is a relatively polished collegiate pitcher out of Texas with a full arsenal of pitches. Kingham only made 3 starts out of 11 appearances for Danville in 2018, likely to limit his innings, but I would expect his next extended look to be in a rotation.
Miguel Jerez
Jerez was named GCL Braves Pitcher of the Year in 2017 for his work out the bullpen. He returned to the same level in 2018 as a starter and won the award again. Jerez is a control pitcher with solid secondaries who can be a stabilizing presence in a lower minors rotation, but a relatively small frame limits his ceiling.
Jose Montilla
Montilla lead the ’18 Danville squad in innings and was strong out of the gate before fading down the stretch. Montilla has tries to induce week contact with a fastball/curve, which is a tough way to make a living with rookie league-quality defense and rookie-league quality infields.
Matt Hartman
Hartman was signed as an undrafted free agent out of Westmont College in California at mid-season and proved to be a steadying element for Danville, pitching to a 2.87 ERA in 5 starts. Hartman is a fastball/curve/change pitcher with good command for the his level.
Victor Vodnik
Last but absolutely not least is Vodnik, the only high school draft pick signed by Atlanta in 2018. The book on Vodnik is that he’s a raw talent but has a big arm and coachability. Being part of the Rome rotation out of spring training seems like a longshot for Vodnik, but I can imagine the Braves handling Vodnik as they did with a raw 19-year-old last year, Freddy Tarnok, allowing him to get his feet wet in the bullpen before putting him in the rotation mix.
OFR TOP 10 STARTING PITCHER PROSPECT RANKINGS:
- Mike Soroka (OFR #1)
- Touki Toussaint (OFR #2)
- Ian Anderson (OFR #5)
- Bryse Wilson (OFR #8)
- Kyle Wright (OFR #9)
- Luiz Gohara (OFR #10)
- Kyle Muller (OFR #11)
- Joey Wentz (OFR #12)
- Patrick Weigel (OFR #13)
- Kolby Allard (OFR #14)
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