Welcome back to the Hot Stove Report, your semi-regular capsule of all of the off-season news, rumors, transactions, and winter league action for the Atlanta Braves. This will be the last Hot Stove report of the off-season (booo!) because in a couple weeks we’ll have actual spring training reports (huzzah!).
The Offseason In Review: An Opportunity Squandered?
Pitchers and catchers report to the final Braves spring training at the Disney complex near Orlando on Friday, marking an end to the hot stove season. From the beginning, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos set goals to address the following areas, in order of need:
- Team power
- Catching
- Right Field
- Bench/depth
- Front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher
- Late inning reliever
The Braves struck early to deal with three of those items. The team announced that they were reuniting with former Braves catching great Brian McCann on a one-year, $2 million deal to replace the departed Kurt Suzuki. The team is betting on McCann’s health rebounding after mid-season knee surgery in 2018 and believe that McCann renowned pitcher handling and game preparation can help the young pitching staff.
The very next day, the Braves inked third baseman Josh Donaldson to the largest one-year deal in major league history, a $23 million pact which addressed two items on the Braves off-season checklist: team power and bench. The move not only put a hitter that if healthy regularly slugs over .500 into the line-up, but it allows the team to play Johan Camargo as a super-utility player.
Three weeks ago, the Braves re-signed Nick Markakis to a below-market value 1-year, $6 million guarantee to fill the right field gap.
To date there has been no move to address pitching, though it could be argued that the Braves dealt with that at the trade deadline with the acquisitions of Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day from Baltimore. (Note: I would not argue this, given that Anthopoulos named those areas as points of concern in the off-season.) Also, the Braves may not be done in this area, as there are still plenty of quality relievers still on the market.
Perhaps it’s due to the Braves acquiring their two major additions so early in the off-season, but for many fans it seems like the Braves have not done enough to cement their standing as division favorites and build a team that goes farther in the playoffs in 2019. It could be argued that the team is one recurring Josh Donaldson calf injury from being a worse team than in 2018, given that the team has lost the services of veterans Kurt Suzuki and Anibal Sanchez, both to the division rival Washington Nationals.
How The Rest of the NL East Stacks Up
The Nationals are considered by several projection systems as the favorites in the NL East once again. While they have not been successful to date in re-signing star outfielder Bryce Harper, they could have a ready-made replacement in prospect Victor Robles. The Nationals re-made the back half of their rotation, adding Patrick Corbin, Jeremy Hellickson, and Sanchez to stars Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. The team will have rookie-of-the-year runner-up Juan Soto to start the season in left field and new addition Brian Dozier at second base. Suzuki and former Cleveland Indian Yan Gomes will try to bring stability to the catcher position. All-in-all, the Nationals seems to be a deeper, more well-rounded team going into 2019 than last season, when a few key injuries lead to a disappointing season.
The Phillies, who started re-building at the same time as the Braves and was Atlanta’s toughest division opponent in 2018 until they faded badly down the stretch, has approached this off-season essentially from the opposite direction of Atlanta. Key prospects of the re-build — J.P. Crawford, Jorge Alfaro, Sixto Sanchez — have been traded for veteran shortstop Jean Segura and catcher J.T. Realmuto. With the team owner vowing to spend “stupid money” this off-season, the Phillies have dipped into free agency, signing outfielder Andrew McCutchen and high-leverage reliever David Robertson to high-dollar contracts. But the team still has yet to land one of the two big stars on the market, Harper or infielder Manny Machado, and the overall effect on wins-and-loses for the team may not be as dramatic as the amount of activity perceived around this team.
Speaking of activity, new Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen has been busy too. The big splash was trading two top prospects and Jay Bruce to the Seattle Mariners for closer Edwin Diaz and second baseman Robinson Cano. He also traded prospects to Milwaukee for standout defensive outfielder Keon Broxton and to Houston for reserve infielder J.D. Davis. From free agency, the Mets have bought catcher Wilson Ramos, relievers Luis Avilan and Justin Wilson, and infielder Jed Lowrie. The Mets are overall a deeper team than in previous years, not a small consideration given the toll injuries have taken on their regular seasons the last couple of years.
The Marlins are set up perfectly to vie with the Orioles and Rangers for the #1 overall draft pick in 2020.
Are The Braves Going To Be Able To Repeat?
While there is time and budget remaining for some other moves, as well as a treasure trove of prospects for trading, the Braves as currently constructed certainly could repeat as division champions, given expected maturation of their under-27 year old core players and some combination of a healthy Josh Donaldson and Kevin Gausman and/or Julio Teheran continuing their good work of the last two months of the season. The whole purpose of going through the painful rebuild process begun before the 2015 season is to re-make the core of the team with young talent, and the Braves, unlike the Phillies, have stuck with that idea.
That said many fans will be upset, and rightfully so, if the Braves fail to invest more in at least team depth, as the Nationals and Mets have done this off-season. While there aren’t any top-of-the-rotation starters available in free agency (unless you want to squint hard enough at Dallas Keuchel) and no one has been able to get to Cleveland’s asking price for ace Corey Kluber, the reliever market has been overall brisk and rational. Even now there are viable arms available, and not just elite closer Craig Kimbrel. Adam Warren, Sergio Romo, Jake Diekman, Xavier Cedeno, and Tony Sipp are just some of the relief pitchers with solid track records that could help lengthen the bullpen and provide insulation from injury or ineffectiveness.
There’s a reason to want more for the offense as well. While Nick Markakis shouldn’t be expected to turn into a pumpkin overnight, there’s a reason to be concerned about outfield production given his second-half struggles. Adam Duvall would seem to be a potentially interesting platoon partner, but his poor 2018 season doesn’t strike confidence. Even if Bryce Harper’s asking price is too high for the Atlanta payroll budget, there are options. Markakis’s former Orioles teammate Adam Jones would be an excellent reserve and platoon partner, with Duvall stashed at AAA Gwinnett (he still has an option remaining).
There are no guarantees in anything, and in baseball that goes double. The Braves however are in a position to make a few more good moves to shore up team depth at reasonable prices that could have a big effect on their chances to make the playoffs again, and hopefully advance farther than the first round. After loudly proclaiming that the payroll budget is increasing, and with all of the dead money from the Hector Olivera/Matt Kemp/Adrian Gonzalez/Scott Kazmir debacle finally off the books, to go into the season with the same payroll as 2018 (or a lower payroll) would be disastrous for Atlanta for both on-field and public relations reasons.
Rumors, News, and Innuendo
- The J.T. Realmuto hostage crisis came to a merciful end last week, with the Phillies stepping up to the plate and snagging the All-Star catcher with a package that included #1 Phillies prospect Sixto Sanchez, young catcher Jorge Alfaro, and sleeper prospect Will Stewart. It’s a sizable haul for Miami, and while the discussion over Realmuto dragged on for over a year, the Marlins did well by being disciplined enough to hold out for the best offer it could get. According to national writer Jon Heyman the Marlins were looking at a Braves package that included 2 of Austin Riley, Cristian Pache, and one of the top starting pitching prospects in the organization. For my two cents, if that’s what it would have taken to get Realmuto, the Braves were wise to let him go.
- Braves beat writer Mark Bowman indicated this week that the Braves had an offer to free agent outfielder Michael Brantley that was at least close to what he signed for with the Houston Astros, which was 2 years at $32 million. No word on why Brantley preferred Houston, but the presence of the designated hitter and the lack of a Texas state income tax likely had something to do with hit.
- The San Francisco Giants became a potential suitor for outfield Bryce Harper last week, but only apparently on a short-term deal (approximately 3 years). Jon Heyman tweeted today that “despite rumored offers/wishes of teams, word is Bryce Harper is not signing — or even considering — short-term deals”. Given that Heyman has long been considered Harper agent Scott Boras’s favorite sports writer, it could be read as Boras publicly trying to re-set expectation of teams on what Harper would be expected to sign.
- Two former Braves are on the comeback trail. 32-year-old right-hander Brandon Beachy signed a minor league contract with the Giants after having not pitched at all in 2017-18. Beachy’s last affiliated action was with the Dodgers in 2016, throwing one inning of a rehab start in the rookie-ball Arizona League. Beachy suffered back-to-back UCL tears while with the Braves.
- The second Brave is right-hander reliever David Carpenter, who was a key member of the bullpen during the 2012-14 seasons after being claimed on waivers from the Red Sox. Carpenter was traded to the Yankees in one of the first re-build era trades and suffered several injury-related setbacks that have kept him out of the majors since 2015.
Mailbag Q&A
Thanks to members of the Outfield Fly Rule Facebook group for questions!
Q: Are we done? – M. Thornton
A: No. While there may not be a big signing or trade for a front-line player, it’s become more common for teams to tinker with their rosters right up to Opening Day. Here’s a short list of Braves transactions just from last spring.
- Signed catcher Chris Stewart to a minor league contract. Stewart would end up having two stints with Atlanta in 2018, including an Opening Day assignment.
- Signed Peter Moylan to a major league contract. Moylan made 39 appearances for Atlanta.
- Traded for third baseman Ryan Schimpf.
- Signed Ezequiel Carrera to a minor league contract.
- Signed Anibal Sanchez to a minor league contract. Sanchez would of course become a rotation staple and would make a start for Atlanta in the playoffs.
- Signed Peter Bourjos to a minor league contract. Bourjos would end up making the Opening Day roster.
- Signed Ryan Flaherty to a minor league contract. Flaherty would end up making the Opening Day roster and pay a key role in the Braves hot April start.
- Signed Miguel Socolovich to a minor league contract. Socolovich appeared in 4 games with Atlanta.
These are the kind of depth moves that fans should expect, but there could be a bigger impact signing given the number of free agents still available and the amount of funds left in the Braves budget.
Q: Do you think any of our prospects have a shot at Rookie of the Year this year? – N. Lyle
There’s several that have a shot, but none that seem likely right now. The clearest path would be for a rookie like Mike Soroka or Touki Toussaint to grab the 5th-starter role out of spring training and make starts all season long (and pitch well, obviously), but if everyone stays healthy it seems more like the Braves will rotate pitchers in and out of that spot all season long and utilize a 6th starter on occasion to keep all the starters fresh well into the season.
In general though, it’s tougher for a pitcher to win Rookie of the Year than a position player. Thirteen of the last twenty Rookies of the Year have been position players. The Brave with the best shot at that would probably be Austin Riley, but as of right now there’s not a clear path for him to get substantial playing time at the major league level.
Your Moment of Zen
Big league BP with @BringerOfRain20. ☔️ #WarEagle | #Legacy https://t.co/svgh0FdALE
— Auburn Baseball (@AuburnBaseball) February 3, 2019
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