Atlanta Braves option RHP Shane Carle to AAA Gwinnett
After years of toiling with Colorado’s AAA affiliate, with just a 4 inning cup of coffee with the Rockies to show for it, Carle got a new chance with Atlanta in 2018 and capitalized on it immediately. Across 63 relief innings, Carle allowed a 2.86 ERA as a 26 year old rookie, generally providing useful work out of the pen. If 2018 was a dream season, 2019 has thus far been a nightmare. In six appearances and 9.1 innings, Carle has allowed ten runs, three homers, and nine walks. After Carle’s disastrous inning against the Padres on Thursday, in which he gave up six hits and five runs, the club optioned Carle to AAA to allow him to fix whatever is broken in a less stressful environment.
So, what is broken? The first thing you’d typically ask is, “Is it just bad luck?” And in the case of Carle, it almost certainly isn’t bad luck. He’s allowing a perfectly healthy .286 BABIP, so this isn’t a case where the numbers would’ve automatically sorted themselves out. If it’s not luck, what’s different? The biggest culprit so far is his performance against same-side hitters. Righties are destroying the ball against Carle so far in 2019. Against his fastball, they’re 3-for-9, and every hit has gone for extra bases. They’re killing his slider and changeup as well. That same slider was unhittable last season. It’s been so unhelpful in 2019, Carle is throwing it significantly less often, down from 25% – his second most used pitch – to 14%, his least used pitch. Batters, particularly righties, are hitting the ball harder against Carle than they did a year ago, and this is a big concern.
Carle’s walk rate has also ballooned from 10.4% to 18.4%, but I find that less of a concern at the moment. While walks are always irritating and problematic, Carle’s control doesn’t seem to have collapsed at a more granular level. According to Statcast, Carle was in the zone on 47.1% of his pitches in 2018, and that’s only down to 45.5% in 2019. The problem is that opposing hitters aren’t chasing balls as often, with their chase rate down from 30% to 21%. I’m throwing a lot of numbers at you, but they do tell us what’s different, and even over six innings, these numbers can start to tell us things.
Carle believes he knows the problem:
Tippin pitches man beat myself stuff too good not to get to where I was last year
— Shane Carle (@shanecarle) May 2, 2019
There’s a good chance he’s right. If he is indeed tipping his pitches, that could explain why a fastball, thrown just as hard with just as much movement as a year ago, is getting crushed. It could explain why his offspeed and breaking pitches, despite as much stuff as a year ago, are either getting crushed or ignored.
Carle’s performance in AAA should be one to watch. As soon as he starts to dominate, that could signal that he has fixed whatever issue set him back thus far. At that point, expect to see him back in Atlanta quickly.
RHP Touki Toussaint promoted from AAA Gwinnett to Atlanta
Toussaint made two appearances for Atlanta last month, one a brilliant relief outing (6 innings, 7 Ks, 4 hits, 1 run), the other a miserable start (1.1 IP, 6 hits, 7 R, 2 K). In Toussaint’s case, I think there’s a good argument his rough statline is the result, at least in part, of some bad luck. Toussaint is sporting a .455 BABIP allowed, the same hard-hit rate he allowed a year ago, and, it’s important to remember, only one bad outing. This is one of Atlanta’s prized pitching talents, so it’s nice to see him back up with the big league club. Expect him to serve in long relief in the short term, with a rotation spot certainly a possibility in the not too distant future.
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