Welcome to the Braves Farm Report, where we will take a look at the Braves farm system and look at trends and players that seem interesting, and give first hand accounts of what we’re seeing down on the farm.
Be sure to check out the OFR Farm Report Podcast, coming out this Tuesday!
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Prospect Spotlight: Tucker Davidson
Tucker Davidson was a 6’2″, 220 pound lefty just finishing up his two years at a Texas JUCO called Midland College and about to transfer to North Carolina State when the Braves drafted him in the 19th round in the 2016 June draft. Nicknamed “The Michelin Man” in college, Davidson was mostly considered an afterthought in a pitching-dominated draft that included Ian Anderson, Bryse Wilson, Joey Wentz, and Kyle Muller. He shouldn’t be an afterthought anymore.
Position: LHP
Age: 23.3
Height: 6′-2″
Weight: 215 lbs
Performance: 18 G, 18 GS | 2.04 ERA | 2.84 FIP | 92.2 IP | 3.79 BB/9 | 10.10 K/9
Grades (Current/Future)
Fastball: 60/60
Curveball: 45/55
Change-Up: 45/50
Command: 40/60
After his rookie season in the GCL, Davidson underwent a strenuous physical regimen. The added muscle and overall fitness bumped his fastball velocity from the 90-92 mph range into the mid-90s. Spotting it anywhere in the zone and pairing it with a hard, sinking curveball, Davidson was a standout in the Rome bullpen during the first half of the 2017 season, pitching to a 2.38 ERA in 41.2 innings over 19 appearances. In the second half, the Braves gave Davidson the opportunity to start, and he took the opportunity and ran with it, holding his own with Anderson, Wilson, and Wentz with his own 2.76 ERA as a starter, and getting stronger as the season went on. This was in part due to his finding a comfortable change-up grip and employing it liberally, helping keep right-handers from sitting on the fastball and generating a 53.8% groundball rate.
His 2018 season however was a challenge in the humidity of Kissemmee. The good command Davidson exhibited with Rome took a step back, and he left more pitches up and out over the plate and he allowed a .270/.359/.357 batting line against him over the course of the season. Working on incorporating a slider more regularly, his curveball took a step as well, and his fastball velocity dropped back to the low ’90s. While Davidson righted the ship late in the season (2.33 ERA in 27 innings in August with a increase in groundball rate), Davidson decided to work in the offseason with Driveline Baseball, an academy with track record for helping some pitchers increase velocity and spin rate on the pitches.
Whatever the cause, the results in 2019 have been superb for Davidson. Davidson has lead the league in ERA for most of the season, and he’s striking out batters at a 27.5% rate, currently ranking 6th in the league in strikeouts. While the command issues he developed in 2018 can still sometimes still show up to sabotage an inning or two, overall his performance has improved across the board and he now projects to be a solid mid-rotation starter.
Life On the Farm
DSL BRAVES:
The Braves held serve this week, going 3-3 and running their overall record to 20-22, good for 5th place in the Northwest Division and 5 games out of first place. Outfielders Deivi Estrada and Randi De La Cruz once again lead the offense, with the 17-year-old De La Cruz hitting his first professional home run on Thursday.
On the pitching side, right-hander Jorge Bautista had the best start of the week, going six innings against the Rays on Friday, striking out four and only allowing one earned run.
GCL BRAVES:
The big news of the week was the pro debut of first baseman Mahki Backstrom, and he didn’t disappoint, going 3-for-3 in his first game and 4-for-9 with a walk and an RBI in his three games to date. Backstrom wasn’t the only Brave to put on his hitting shoes this week; outfielder Brandol Mezquita continues to hit well, this week going 6-for-16 with a home run and two walks. 18-year-olds Michael Harris and Vaughn Grissom also showed out, Harris going .375/.412/.438 with a stolen base and Grissom .300/.391/.450 including his second home run of the season.
On the pitching side, two promising right-handers made their pro debuts; Joey Estes and Jared Johnson threw two scoreless innings apiece in back-to-back starts Friday and Saturday. Pitching in general was strong this week, helping the team go 4-2 and better their overall record to an 8-11 mark.
DANVILLE:
The D-Braves went 3-4 on the week with the squad getting a good pitching performances from 2019 draftees Tyler Owens, Alec Bargerm and Ricky DeVito. Owens, an 18-year-old 13th-rounder, threw 3 hitless innings against Pulaski on Friday, rebounding for a tough Danville debut last Sunday. Barger likewise rebounded from a poor start to pitch 4.2 dominating innings against Johnson City on Saturday night, allowing only two hits and one run (solo homer) while striking out 6. Eighth-rounder DeVito pitched his best start of the season on Tuesday with 3 hitless innings.
First baseman Bryce Ball hit yet another two home runs this week, giving him 9 in only 26 games. The most productive Danville hitter this week however was second baseman Cody Milligan, who hit .364/.481/.409 for the week and scored 4 runs from the top of the order.
ROME:
Rome continued their productive second half of the season, going 4-3 on the week, but Augusta was slightly better and has taken first place in the SAL South Division by a game.
Rome got strong offensive contributions this week from three players that had been scuffling most of the season. Outfielder Jose Bermudez went 13-for-25 this week, including a home run and a stolen base while corner infielder Brendan Venter went 7-for-16 with his own home run. Not to be outdone, infielder Braulio Vasquez, who missed most of the first half with injury, got on track this week, going 9-for-21. First baseman Griffin Benson continued his strong second half work, launching 2 home runs. Outfielder Jeremy Fernandez went 9-for-24; the 21-year-old had a double and a triple but has tallied only one walk on the entire season.
Rome’s starting pitching was mostly outstanding this week. Right-hander Gabriel Noguera seems to improve every week, and this week twirled a pair of outings where he pitched into the 7th inning and only allowed 2 earned a week; the 23-year-old Venezuelan has not allowed more than 3 earned runs a start since mid-May. Righty Alan Rangel was even better, only allowed 2 earned total in two starts totaling 12.2 innings while striking out 12.
On the relief side, lefty Jake Higginbotham pitched two scoreless innings against Lexington and has only allowed one earned run in his last 11 outings covering 18.1 innings, striking out 22 batters in that stretch while only walking 3.
FLORIDA:
The Fire Frogs went 3-3 on the week, with the big news being the dominating performance from left-hander Philip Pfeifer against Palm Beach on Thursday. The converted reliever demolished his career high in strikeouts (set just 18 days before) by punching out 17 Cardinals in his 8 shut-out innings. Even with the high number of strikeouts Pfeifer was very efficient, only allowing 2 hits and walking none while throwing only 94 pitches.
The Frogs also got strong performances from starters Hayden Deal (5 innings, 2 hits, 0 earned) and Freddy Tarnok (4 innings, 4 hits, 0 earned), the latter returning from a month-long stint on the injured list. Right-hander Brooks Wilson, who had been filling in the rotation during Tarnok’s absence, came in relief and threw the other 5 innings, allowing 5 hits and no runs for a combined 9-hit shutout. Right-handed relievers Walter Borkovich, Troy Bacon, Sean McLaughlin, and Brandon White combined to throw 8.1 scoreless innings in relief.
Outfielder Trey Harris got back on a roll last week, going 6-for-11 with a home run before getting promoted to AA Mississippi. He was replaced on the roster by Gary Schwartz off his own IL stint, and he came back strong with 2 hits against Fort Myers on Saturday. On the flipside, first baseman Drew Lugbauer went ice cold this week after being red hot since the start of July. Lugbauer went 1-for-17 on the week with a walk, striking out 10 times.
MISSISSIPPI:
If you’re looking for high-scoring games, Mississippi was not the place to be this week. The M-Braves were 3-3 for the week while both scoring and giving up a total of sixteen runs. First, the bad news: Jasseel De La Cruz gave up seven earned runs over 4.2 innings on Monday but no other starter gave up more than two runs in their starts. Ian Anderson continued his dominant run with two starts where he gave up just three runs while striking out sixteen and walking just one. Tucker Davidson had a spectacular start on Thursday with eight shutout innings of five-hit ball where he struck out nine and walked no one. Joey Wentz had another good start on Sunday with 5.2 innings of one-run ball while striking out eight while Kyle Muller pitched 5.1 innings of shutout ball although he walked five and threw just 56 strikes in 103 pitches. Relievers were rarely used during the week, but Jordan Harrison led the way with three shutout appearances and two saves.
With only sixteen runs scored, there were few offensive standouts, but Ray-Patrick Didder had a solid 6-for-19 week (.316/.435/.421) with three stolen bases. Neither Drew Waters (.167/.250/.222, one extra-base hit) nor Cristian Pache (.190/.190/.286, one extra-base hit) had good weeks, but catcher William Contreras (5-for-12, two RBI) and outfielder Greyson Jenista (.235/.350/.529, three extra-base hits) showed signs of life with their bats.
GWINNETT:
Gwinnett Stripers pitching continued to impress during a 5-2 week where they gave up just 30 runs in seven games with twelve of those being in one game. Rehabbing Kevin Gausman had the most impressive performance of the week with a seven-inning outing on Tuesday where he gave up just one earned run and scattered seven baserunners while striking out ten. After this performance, he was announced to start on Sunday in Atlanta against the Nationals. Mike Foltynewicz (Thursday) and Kolby Allard (Saturday) each turned in six-inning, one-run starts on the week while Patrick Weigel gave up three runs over five innings on Sunday before receiving his first MLB call-up to Atlanta later in the week. Jeremy Walker was the standout reliever of the week with three shutout appearances covering eight innings where he struck out ten and didn’t walk anyone. Lefthanders Corbin Clouse and Thomas Burrows each had a mixed bag of results on the week: Clouse had a two-inning scoreless appearance but gave up two innings in one inning of work in an emergency spot start when Kyle Wright was called up to Atlanta. Burrows had two scoreless appearances covering 3.2 innings but was hammered in another outing for four earned runs over just 1.1 innings where he also hit two batters.
Gwinnett hitters generated 43 runs on the week and were led by Travis Demeritte, who had two more home runs on his way to a .286/.348/.619 week although he struck out eight times. Catcher Alex Jackson continued his hot run and as of late and earned back-to-back OFR Position Player of the Week honors with four more home runs in a .353/.500/1.059 week where he was also hit by FOUR pitches and even stole a base. C-1B Jonathan Morales contributed as well with an ongoing six-game hitting streak.
POSITION PLAYER of the WEEK:
PITCHER of the WEEK:
Transaction Round-Up
7/15/2019: RHP Rolddy Munoz signed with the Atlanta Braves; assigned to DSL Braves
7/15/2019: RHP Oscar Nunez released from the DSL Braves
Munoz is 19 years old and went straight to the DSL team. Nunez was a standout pitcher as an 18 year old in 2018 before injuries knocked him out. He’s pitched in 9 games this season to poor results.
7/17/2019: RHP Marrick Crouse signed with the Atlanta Braves; assigned to Rk Danville
7/16/2019: C Ray Soderman released from Rk Danville
Crouse was drafted in the 11th round out of high school by Toronto in 2016 but elected to go to the University of Southern California. After a sophomore season that saw Crouse produce a 7.60 ERA in 13 starts, Crouse stopped playing collegiate baseball after that, but now 22 years old the Braves are going to give him his first professional shot. Crouse’s younger brother Hans is currently Baseball America’s number one prospect in the Texas Rangers organization.
Soderman is a mitt-first catcher drafted last season out of Oregon. In 31 games with Danville he has batted .168/.275/.179.
7/16/2019: RHP Kurt Hoekstra promoted to AAA Gwinnett from A+ Florida
7/17/2019: RHP Freddy Tarnok activated from the 7-day injured list for A+ Florida
This is Hoekstra’s second trip up to the Stripers, this time as a fill-in during Bryse Wilson’s promotion to Atlanta. Hoekstra has been having a terrific season for the Frogs in his first full season as a pitcher.
Like Tristan Beck before him, Tarnok came off the IL and immediately had one of his best starts of the season, shutting out Palm Beach fro 4 innings.
7/17/2019: 1B Mahki Backstrom assigned to GCL Braves
7/17/2019: 1B Kimberling Encarnacion released from the GCL Braves
Backstrom has signed with Atlanta last week but had been pending assignment untile Wednesday. Encarnacion had been with the organization for three seasons, playing the last two in the DSL.
7/18/2019: OF Trey Harris promoted to AA Mississippi from A+ Florida
7/18/2019: OF Gary Schwartz activated from 7-day injured list for A+ Florida
7/18/2019: OF Tyler Neslony placed on the 7-day injured list for AA Mississippi
Harris had just started another hot streak when he was plucked from the Fire Frogs to Mississippi, continuing an impress rise through the organization for the former 32nd-rounder. Schwartz had been on the IL since May 23, and this is Neslony’s third stint on the the IL, disrupting what has been a strong season at the plate.
7/19/2019: SS Riley Unroe promoted to AAA Gwinnett from AA Mississippi
7/19/2019: IF Jack Lopez placed on the 7-day injured list for AAA Gwinnett
This is the second promotion of the season for Unroe, and well deserved after hitting .290/.354/.387 for Mississippi with 7 stolen bases. Even though Unroe will qualify for minor league free agency after the season, at age 23 he should still be thought of as a prospect.
Lopez has had the best season of his career with Gwinnett while playing multiple infield positions. His next home run will establish a new career high.
7/19/2019: RHPs Patrick Weigel and Wes Parsons promoted to MLB Atlanta from AAA Gwinnett
7/19/2019: RHPs Bryse Wilson and Touki Toussaint optioned to AAA Gwinnett
I wrote about Weigel on Friday. No word on what role Toussaint will play with Gwinnett, but I assume he will get stretched out to start. Toussaint was very good for Atlanta out of the bullpen in the playoffs last season though, so that’s no guarantee.
Mailbag Q&A
Q: Kyle Wright: barring injury, best guess as to his major league cumulative stats in 2024? – J. Hardin
A: 538 IP, 3.36 ERA, 545 SO, 222 BB.
Q: Rafael Jose De Paula? Any chance we see him in the majors? And Phil Pfeifer new role rejuvenating his career? – J. Drake
A: De Paula has two things going against him; one, he’s not on the 40-man roster and two, he’s had some trouble staying healthy. It’s a short sample size obviously so take it for what it’s worth, but I note that he’s allowed 5 earned runs in 3 innings in 3 outings since he returned from his last brush with the injured list.
Pfeifer has done a nice job down at Florida re-making himself into a starting pitcher after years of frustration as a reliever. That said, he’s still a 26-year-old pitching at high-A. He definitely needs the opportunity to prove himself at a higher level.
Q: What starter is a realistic trade for the braves at the deadline? – B. Maran
A: Anyone. The Braves have the prospects to, pardon the expression, “shop in any aisle”. That said, I don’t expect the Braves to part with any of their very top prospects unless it’s for a true difference-maker that would be under team control for multiple years.
Q: Does Sean Newcomb get another shot as a SP or are they content to leave him in the BP the rest of the season? – J. Henry
A: It looks like they’ll keep him in the bullpen the rest of the season unless things get really bad. Unfortunately his shot at the rotation for this season ended when J.T. Realmuto‘s line drive knocked him out of that last start in June. If they want to have him start he would likely have to go back to Gwinnett to get stretched out again, and the bullpen would suffer in the meantime.
Q: Others have had an opportunity or more to start this season, why not give Allard a game or two to see what happens? – D. Delay
A: If they need an emergency starter and his turn in the rotation is up in Gwinnett, I don’t doubt they’ll do just that. However, Allard is still working on his craft, and doesn’t seem likely to put up performances any better than Bryse Wilson or Kyle Wright.
Q: Ynoa: I’d just like to see combo starts from some of our guys. I’d like to see their short term stats in starts, if one is good at the beginning like Gausman or such and one is better in later innings. – B. Johnson
A: What you are describing is called “piggybacking” or sometimes “bullpenning”. The idea of it is that because nearly all pitchers become less effective the more times through the batting order they have to pitch due to both the hitters getting more looks at the pitcher and the pitcher becoming more fatigued, why not have a plan for pitchers just go through a couple times through the order then give way to another pitcher who can also go a couple times through the order?
Personally, I think this idea has a lot of merit. The theory is behind some of the “opener” strategy that has been employed in places like Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Milwaukee.
The downside is that it can create stress on the pitching staff because you are taking more than one pitcher out of circulation after the game. Also, if a pitcher has to come out early due to injury or ineffectiveness it could have a disproportionate impact on planning for subsequent days.
Q: Any idea if Alex Anthopoulos has been contacting any teams regarding their starting pitchers or ‘pen help? – M. Thornton
A: Yes, he is.
Q: Will Ian Anderson get moved up to Gwinnett this year? – Also J. Henry
A: I believe he will. I think we’ll see a lot of minor league movement after the trade deadline.
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