With 10 days until the trade deadline, here’s a look at what the Braves might be interested in acquiring from teams whose Fangraphs playoff odds have already hit the dreaded 0.0% mark. That’s right, Rangers, your 0.4% playoff odds have spared you the embarrassment and me the time! There’s hope yet!

The Braves don’t have a drastic list of needs, but here are some things I’m looking for on their behalf:

• A playoff starting pitcher. This is someone you feel good handing the ball to two or three times in a short series. These pitchers are hard to find.
• A righty reliever or two. The Braves have good depth with decent to above average righty relievers, but a relief ace could do wonders for the entire unit. I’m mostly looking at guys who have closer-like stuff.
• A lefty reliever. Preferably not another LOOGY like Jerry Blevins, but a lefty who can do what a LOOGY can do, but throw to righties as well.
• Outfielders. Atlanta’s OF is getting by, and it has plenty of options all around, but it never hurts to have more options. If the right OF is available, it could help mitigate some down-the-road issues.

Here are some ideas based on less information than I’d need to really sign off on any of them!

But first, this wall of text needs something eye-catching for the social media, so here’s the dreamiest GM in the National League:

 

Baltimore Orioles

RHP Mychal Givens (Reliever) – After four excellent seasons to begin his career, 2019 has been relatively frustrating for the righty, saddled with career worsts in ERA (4.23) and FIP (4.63). However, Givens’ FIP might be more misleading than usual. DRA has proven to be more predictive than FIP, and Given’s 2019 DRA is a very healthy 3.05. He’s striking out more batters than ever (33.1%!), and his issues have mostly been HR-related. Getting him out of the AL East should help in that regard. He achieves all this mostly with a 95 mph, high-spin rate fastball. He’ll complement it with a slider against righties and a change against lefties, both good pitches that miss bats, but it’s the big four seamer which does most of the heavy lifting.

Givens has a good track record prior to 2019, and he has two more seasons of team control. You do worry a bit about wear and tear on his arm, given that he’s topped 70 innings in each of the past three seasons. However, his price shouldn’t be exorbitant either. Atlanta’s bullpen is a strange one, a bullpen that has performed really well this season in terms of its overall effectiveness, but one marred by blown saves and shaky future projection. Givens isn’t a panacea, but he would help.

Suggested fair offer: Joey Wentz & Tristan Beck. The O’s are rebuilding, so getting two decent but not elite prospect pitchers from Atlanta would be a fair return for a good reliever.

Also possible:

• Dylan Bundy, on sheer talent alone, would catch the eye of any organization. He will be priced as a starter, and he might have more appeal to Atlanta as a reliever. The Braves don’t have to look far to find wildly talented starters who have yet to put it together at the MLB level, after all.
• Shawn Armstrong – If the Braves want to add a potentially helpful stretch run righty but don’t want to give up anything of value, Armstrong might be their man. He’s already switched teams once this season. He has team control, which is something that’s not hard to find for mediocre mop-up relievers. He’s not a guy who’ll change the season outlook, but everybody wants more depth, and he’d be that.

Chicago White Sox

RHP Alex Colome (Reliever) – The “proven closer” crowd will love the idea of adding Colome, who has 117 career saves, including 21 this season, with a 2.33 ERA to go along. There are some concerns for collapse with Colome, however. His 3.95 FIP won’t be quite as exciting. His 4.42 DRA is even less so. His K and BB rates are moving closer together, which isn’t encouraging. And, with all the saves to his name, he’s going to cost around $10M if the team wants to retain his services for his final year of arbitration.

That said, he’s a veteran righty with plenty of closing experience, so Atlanta should at least check in on him. I’m not convinced he’s a better option going forward than Luke Jackson, but he doesn’t need to be. He needs to be a better option going forward than the team’s worst reliever, and everything else trickles down.

Suggested offer: Greyson Jenista. It’s something of a lowball offer – Jenista’s 2019 has been disappointing – but Colome comes with some baggage and is probably not the kind of player Atlanta needs to pay full price for.

Also possible

• Kelvin Herrera (RH Reliever) – Remember last year, when Braves fans thought Herrera would solve all our ills? Since he was traded to Washington (and later signed with Chicago), Herrera has surrendered 37 runs in 51.2 innings. He’s not exactly a trade candidate as much as he’s a potential signing if Chicago releases him. They’ll try to get something soon, hoping he can get off the IL (oblique strain) when he’s eligible on July 28.
• Ivan Nova (RH Starter) – Ditto. He’s been absolutely terrible in 2019, but contenders always keep their eye on veteran releases in August and beyond.
• Evan Marshall (RH Reliever) – Marshall has gone from years of awfulness to a 2.77 ERA in 26 innings in 2019. It’s an interesting breakout in that Marshall is now just throwing his changeup more than any other pitch. It may not be the most sustainable breakout, but Marshall would cost litttle if a contender set their eyes on him.

Detroit Tigers

RHP Shane Greene (Reliever) – The 30 year old has 54 saves since the start of 2018 and has a year of control remaining, so he should attract some attention. It’s easy to point out that his 1.25 ERA is a house of cards, because it is, thanks to a ridiculously low BABIP. But the FIPpers in the room also probably will overstate how much of a decline Greene is due for. This is a pitcher who has gotten better for the second straight season, allowing fewer HR, inducing more groundballs, and notching more Ks than in 2018. Greene would slide effortlessly into Atlanta’s pen, although possibly not as the closer. While fans could lazily talk about blown saves, Greene might better serve the Braves as a throwback fireman, a guy to come in and get the team out of a jam. His sinker/cutter/slider mix and proficiency in both ground balls and strikeouts makes him a guy you want on the mound with runners on in the late stages of a close game.

Suggested offer: CJ Alexander & Luiz Gohara. Gohara is still an extremely high-upside prospect who needs patience which Atlanta can no longer provide. Alexander gives Detroit a decent offensive prospect to stash away for down the road.

LHP Matthew Boyd (Starter) – The 28 year old southpaw has enjoyed a breakout season in 2019, increasing his K-rate from 22% to 32%, an incredible improvement. The reasons for his improvement include both a natural improvement in terms of command and, more importantly, a devotion to the stuff that works best. Last year, when Boyd sported a 4.39 ERA (5.22 DRA), he tried harder to mix his non-slider secondary offerings, using some combo of his changeup, curve, and sinker on over a third of his pitches. Hitters feasted, with those pitches accounting for 11 of the 27 HR he allowed. This season, Boyd is using that triumvirate on just 14% of his pitches. He is trusting his two best pitches – the fastball and slider. By focusing on the four seamer more, he’s throwing it harder than before, and by slowing down his slider a notch, he attacks hitters with a big difference in mph.

The most difficult thing with Boyd, who has three more seasons of arbitration remaining after 2019, is figuring out his value. It’s hard for acquiring teams to know exactly what led Boyd to his new approach. When it comes to pitchers who suddenly improve, you’d like to peek behind closed doors a bit to figure this out. The Tigers will probably price Boyd like an ace. And why wouldn’t they, with a starter whose K/9 minus BB/9 is over 10? And yet it will be hard for teams to meet that price. A team like Atlanta certainly has the prospect capital to do that, but is Boyd the surest bet to expend the capital on? It’s really hard to say after merely the three best months of his career. That could lead to wildly different appraisals of Boyd’s trade value from all involved parties, which could lead to predictably short negotiations. My hunch is that Boyd might be a better trade candidate for the offseason, but I might be wrong.

Suggested offer: Kyle Wright & William Contreras. There’s a chance Detroit would balk at this and demand something silly and unrealistic like Austin Riley, but even after adjusting Boyd’s value up, Atlanta’s 6th and 7th best prospects seem like more than enough to get the job done, IF Atlanta feels comfortable with Boyd’s big step forward in 2019.

Also possible

• Joe Jimenez – A righty reliever whose ERA (5.35) is probably a result of some bad luck. You’d be asking Detroit to sell low on a reliever due for a rebound with four years of control beyond 2019, so it’s unlikely to have the same price point in mind.

Kansas City Royals

LHP Jake Diekman (Reliever) – His 4.76 ERA is lying to you! Trust the 2.85 DRA instead, which tells me Diekman is one of the best southpaw relievers on the market. Both the 96 mph four seamer and the 85 mph slider have been hell on batters this year, with 13.4 K/9. He’ll issue walks, but give him time and he’ll K his way out of jams. Also, Diekman wouldn’t be just a LOOGY. He’s faced more than twice as many righties this year as he has lefties, and while righties do give him more trouble, they’re still OPS-ing under .700 against him this year. Atlanta is obviously frustrated with its lefty options, and acquiring Diekman would allow the team to rely less on a still struggling AJ Minter down the stretch.

Diekman has a $5.75M mutual option for 2020, so there’s possible team control beyond 2019. As it’s a mutual option, however, Atlanta shouldn’t pay in a trade for the right to be declined by a guy who will probably opt for free agency. As such, that should keep Diekman’s price relatively low, making him a nice trade target for a team in need of a lefty full-inning reliever.

Suggested offer: LHP Kolby Allard. Allard probably should be on a MLB roster somewhere, and a playoff-chasing Atlanta probably isn’t that roster. On a Royals team with no immediate pressure to win, Allard would have the organizational patience to allow him to grow further.

Alternate offer: Raffy Lopez, because if recent trades are any indication, Kansas City might prefer mediocre 30 year olds to actual prospects.

RHP Ian Kennedy (Reliever) – The 34 year old moved from starting to closing in 2019. Despite not really having closer stuff, he’s at a 3.35 ERA with 17 saves in 2019. If anything, the last 3 outs of the game are proving to be easier for Kennedy than the first 24. Kennedy is due $16.5M next season, so KC will need to send some money along even to move him for a marginal prospect. However, if KC throws in around $17M, I could see the Royals getting something in return, like Josh Graham. Or, if they really play hardball with Alex Anthopoulos, maybe even something they really want, like Shane Carle.

Also possible:

• Jorge Soler – The former Cubs OF is having a good old-fashioned age-27 breakout season, slashing .251/.327/.523 with 27 HR. If Austin Riley’s struggles continue, and Ender Inciarte doesn’t do his usual second half thing, and Brian Snitker‘s willingness to once again grind Nick Markakis into a pulp persists, Atlanta could conceivably have a late season OF crisis. Soler would be a solution, particularly if KC requests something unusually dispensable in return. (“Quiet about your so called prospect rankings, Alex, I’ll say this very slowly. GIVE. US. WES. PARSONS. NOW.”)

Miami Marlins

I don’t really see anything here. Caleb Smith is interesting, but the Marlins should probably ask for a Boyd-like return for their late twenties breakout, particularly from a division rival. And unlike Boyd, I think Smith is more of a mid-rotation starter due to his breakout’s reliance on BABIP. Adding him is certainly worth consideration, but at first glance, my guess is the cost will outweigh the benefit.

Seattle Mariners

Again, I don’t see Seattle as a great trade partner. Some team out there could certainly use the services of Mike Leake, Domingo Santana, Tim Beckham, Roenis Elias, or Dee Gordon, but it’s hard to find motivation for the Braves to trade for any of them. We move on.

Toronto Blue Jays

RHP Marcus Stroman (Starter) & RHP Ken Giles (Reliever) – Stroman isn’t the ace the Braves would ideally be looking for, but he’d be another pretty good starter on a team in need of a boost. He’ll take his turn, give you six innings more often than he gives you five, and generally improve everything. He’s a gamer who wants the ball, which is nice to have in the postseason. However, for me, Stroman would slot in as more of a 4th starter in the current rotation. While Matthew Boyd holds more upside for something special, Stroman should be reliable. He’d be under control for 2020 as well.

Giles, meanwhile, is the kind of ace reliever Atlanta should be eyeing, and his acquisition would satiate both old school fans (105 career saves = proven closer!) and those more acquainted with modern numbers (2.32 DRA!). He’s a shutdown reliever, striking out 15.5 per 9 innings, and he’s the type of reliever that teams in recent years have relied on in the postseason. If Atlanta is serious about its championship aspirations in 2019 (and 2020), Ken Giles would certainly improve their chances of making those aspirations a reality.

Suggested offer: Kyle Wright & Touki Toussaint. The Jays would probably be quite happy with MLB-ready starting prospects, even ones with somewhat shaky starts to their MLB careers.

Alternate: Ignore Stroman. Trade Toussaint for Giles and a PTBNL or Cash (~equivalent to around $3M).

And there you have it – one purely speculative look at Atlanta’s trading compatibility with teams that now have nothing better to do than look ahead to an election year (gulp).