Outfield Fly Rule

NLDS Game 3 Preview: Five Things

October 6, 2019 Andy Harris Atlanta Braves 0

Braves starting pitcher Mike Soroka listens to a question during a news conference Saturday, Oct. 5, 2019, in St. Louis.  (Jeff Roberson/Associated Press)

Game 1: St. Louis 7, Atlanta 6
Game 2: Atlanta 3, St. Louis 0
Game 3: Atlanta at St. Louis, 4:10 p.m. Sunday
Game 4*: Atlanta at St. Louis, Monday, Time TBD
Game 5*: St. Louis at Atlanta, Wednesday, Time TBD

*if necessary

When last we saw our intrepid baseball team, right-handed pitcher Mike Foltynewicz hoisted the Braves playoff lives onto his narrow shoulders and fireman lifted them through 100 degree heat all the way to St. Louis.

From Friday’s 5 Things we saw:

  • Atlanta’s Short-Term Memory: As the team has done all season, the Braves shook off a poor performance and did good work. Ronald Acuña Jr. hustled all game too, and hopefully that’s the end of that.
  • Flaherty’s Four-Seamer: Flaherty’s game-plan against the Braves actually emphasized his slider, which he threw 47% of the time to good effect. After Ozzie Albies singled in the first and Josh Donaldson singled him home against the two-seamer, Flaherty went almost exclusively slider/two-seamer (except against Albies, whom he kept in check the rest of the way with curveballs). He averaged 96 mph on the four-seamer, but Brian McCann was able to rip one for a single ahead of Adam Duvall’s pinch-hit, two run shot on a four-seamer that moved from the middle of the plate right into his wheelhouse.
  • Foltynewicz’s Zen: If Foltynewicz was any more zen, he could have thrown the baseball with his mind. That’s not to say he showed Glavine-esque stoicism, but he effectively channeled his emotions into his performance rather than letting things that have historically bothered him — the heat, an error, umpire Alan Porter — ruin the outing. The result was his finest game as a professional, given the stakes.
  • Teheran’s Role: There was no Julio Teheran in Game Two, and the Braves are giving strong indications that he could start Game Four.
  • Tomlin’s Cutter: There was no Josh Tomlin either thanks to Foltynewicz running into the 7th. Left-hander Max Fried however was used for one inning in back-to-back games, which would seem to indicate that Tomlin is the only long reliever.

Here’s today’s 5 Things:

Wainwright’s Guile

The Cardinals turn today to 15-year veteran Adam Wainwright, and some Braves fans may be over the trade that sent the 3-time All Star to St. Louis when Wainwright was just a well-regarded AA prospect in 2003 in another 15 years. Now in the twilight of his career, Wainwright fastball now averages velocities in the high-80s and he leans heavily on his curveball. This makes him somewhat susceptible to left-handed hitters. That said, no current Atlanta Brave has ever taken Wainwright deep, and he’s been especially effective at home this season. The Braves will need to grind out at-bats against him, avoid tapping into grounders, and force Wainwright to throw something in the strikezone.

Soroka’s Preternatural Resolve

Soroka has been a road warrior all year, but he’ll be tested by a Cardinals team that played to a .617 winning percentage at Busch Stadium. The key to Soroka’s success this year has been his refusal to give in to any hitter and his willingness to pitch with runners on base. The Cardinals haven’t been an especially patient team as a whole, and this approach would seem to favor Soroka, allowing him to induce groundballs. That said, it would be natural for a 22-year-old making his first postseason appearance to make a few mistakes… but if there’s a young pitcher on the planet I would place a bet to not allow the moment to get to him, it would be on Mike Soroka.

Ozuna’s Timing

Marcell Ozuna has a good series so far with St. Louis, and his work against Mark Melancon in both games stands out, being able to punch really good curveballs over the infield for key hits. That said, for the Cardinals to be successful, they’re going to have to do something not many teams have been able to do to Mike Soroka: take him deep. It’s just unlikely that St. Louis will be able to sustain long rallies against Soroka, so instant offense will be required and Ozuna needs to be the man in their line-up to take charge in the clean-up spot. Soroka will be looking to get the ball on the ground, Ozuna and his 22.1% home run-to-fly ball ratio would be the best chance to counter that… if he can correctly time Soroka’s four-seam fastball.

Snitker’s Bullpen Options

Max Fried has been a revelation out of the bullpen for Atlanta in this series, striking out 4 in two innings of work over two games, but Braves manager Brian Snitker has steadfastly declined to pitch him in longer outings. It seems likely that Snitker will want Fried available for Game 4 and may look elsewhere to fill innings between Soroka and closer Mark Melancon. The most likely candidate would be veteran Shane Greene, but Snitker loves to give players a chance at redemption. Luke Jackson has been a middle inning stalwart down the stretch, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Snitker looks for a spot for him to rebuild confidence.

Swanson’s Hands

With lots of Cardinals right-handed batters and Mike Soroka on the mound, look for Dansby Swanson to get plenty of opportunities at shortstop. Swanson has shown good range and footwork, but this season he seems to be having more trouble on the balls that he has to come in for and make a play with his hands. This match-up may put that to the test.

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