Welcome to the fourth annual OFR prospect list! This year we return with another 50 prospects. As with last year, I will be joined this year by Sunday Farm Report co-writer and OFR Farm Report Podcast co-host Matt Chrietzberg.
We come to the penultimate grouping of players, an interesting mixture of older college players perhaps near permanent big league opportunities and a handful of talented but raw teenagers.
Also in this series:
Atlanta Braves Top 50 Prospects: #50-41
Atlanta Braves Top 50 Prospects: #40-31
Atlanta Braves Top 50 Prospects: #30-21
Atlanta Braves Top 50 Prospects: #10-1
20. Vaughn Grissom, SS
Age: 19 | Bats: R
.288/.361/.400 | 120 wRC+ | 3 HR | 3 SB | 8.7% BB | 14.7% K (Rk GCL)
Current Assignment: Rk GCL
Acquired: Drafted, 11th Round – 2019
Prior Year Ranking: N/A
As MLB teams scouted outfielder Riley Greene, the eventual #5 overall pick in 2019 by the Detroit Tigers, at Hagerty High School in Florida, they also took notice of Vaughn Grissom, who was primarily a shortstop but played all over the infield during his high school career. He showed great strength and athleticism and had been committed to Florida International before accepting an overslot $350,000 signing bonus from the Atlanta Braves as their 11th round pick in 2019.
Although Grissom is currently playing exclusively at shortstop, his current 6’3”, 180-pound frame may fill out to the point where he could be moved over to third base long-term depending on his power development. Either way, he has a strong enough arm to play on the left side of the infield on an ongoing basis. Grissom was quite successful in his professional debut with the GCL Braves, sporting a .288/.361/.400 batting line with a 120 wRC+ and just a 14.7% strikeout rate in 184 plate appearances.
Grissom should start his age-19 season at extended spring training before working his way up to Danville when their season begins. As of right now, he is slightly behind fellow shortstop Beau Philip development-wise and will remain a step behind him in the system until either a position change is made or his performance merits a bigger jump. -MC
19. Justin Dean, OF
Age: 23 | Bats: R
.284/.386/.431 | 141 wRC+ | 9 HR | 47 SB | 12.3% BB | 22.9% K (A)
Current Assignment: A Rome
Acquired: Drafted, 17th Round – 2018
Prior Year Ranking: 40
Dean has established himself in Rome as a prototypical lead-off hitter, combining good on-base skills and fast baserunning. Despite missing nearly a month of the season with a hand injury caused by an awkward slide, Dean lead all of A-ball in stolen bases and runs scored.
Dean was a 17th-round pick out of a small college, likely overlooked due to his 5′-6″, 185 pound stature. Dean uses this to his advantage however, providing a small strike zone. Like the similarly proportioned Ozzie Albies, Dean is stronger than he appears and has a quick and powerful stroke, and this season saw him turning on mistake pitches in the zone and hitting for power. That said, Dean does have a tendency to chase pitches, especially with two strikes; cutting down on strikeouts and infield pop-ups should be the primary focus for him going into 2020. Dean has the tools to be a standout centerfielder and is capable for tracking down a lot of balls hit into the gaps, but he seems to occasionally lose focus or take somewhat awkward routes to balls which sabotages his overall defensive skills.
If not for the mid-season hand injury Dean would likely have gotten a promotion to high-A Florida by now. Instead he’ll make his way up to start next season, though given his age and skill set it may not be a surprise if he skipped advanced-A and made his 2020 debut at AA Mississippi. -AH
18. Victor Vodnik, RHP
Age: 20 | Throws: R
2.94 ERA | 2.79 FIP | 23 G, 3 GS | 67.1 IP | 3.21 BB/9 | 9.22 K/9 (A)
Current Assignment: A Rome
Acquired: Drafted, 14th Round – 2018
Prior Year Ranking: 30
Blister issues slowed Vodnik in 2019 and took 6 weeks out of his first full pro season, but otherwise the California teenager had an electrifying year. Used primarily in a relief role, Vodnik had a 1.94 ERA when he went down with the blisters. He was still strong upon his return, but by the end of the season was noticeably fighting with his command, a sign of fatigue.
Vodnik gets good leverage from his 6′-0″, 200 pound frame, with a fastball that can touch 100 mph but works best in the 95-97 range where he can better spot the pitch where he wants. He has two potential-plus secondary pitches, a tight slider and a sinking change-up, both of which he disguises well by maintaining a consistent release point. This is a pitch mix that would work fine as a starter, and it seems like Vodnik was going to be on the same path as Tucker Davidson in 2017 and Freddy Tarnok in 2018, relieving in the first half and starting in the second, but the blister issues messed up that plan. If he does stick in the bullpen, he has high-leverage upside.
The blisters likely was a result of pitching in the muggy Southern summer rather than the more arid Southern California of his high school days, and he and the team should be better prepared in 2020. Vodnik will likely move up to advanced-A, and hopefully will be given the opportunity to stick in a rotation. -AH
17. Greyson Jenista, OF
Age: 23 | Bats: L
.233/.318/.349 | 99 wRC+ | 9 HR | 3 SB | 11.1% BB | 29.8% K (A+/AA)
Current Assignment: AA Mississippi
Acquired: Drafted, 2nd Round – 2018
Prior Year Ranking: 15
This time last season, I wrote this about Jenista:
Jenista showed good bat speed and strong wrists, enough to line shots to all fields against lower level pitching competition. A large fellow at 6′-4″ and 210 pounds, Jenista’s approach and bat plane limit his over-the-fence potential despite his overall raw power. As he advanced, pitchers took advantage of Jenista’s tendency to get out on his front foot and either swing through or tap breaking balls weakly to the infield.
Jenista spent most of the season working on exactly these issues, and for most of the season the end results were not good. Progress in something like reworking a swing doesn’t progress in a linear fashion, and muscle memory is a tough thing to fight against. Jenista did hit significantly fewer ground balls this season while also keeping his all-fields approach, but in trying to stay off his front foot he saw too many pitches go past him and his strikeout and infield pop-up rates rocketed. These tendencies improved after a surprise promotion to AA Mississippi, though he never really got on track over the course of the year.
In the process of changing his hitting mechanics, Jenista has closed up his stance to allow his bat to travel through the zone longer, but it has also made him more susceptible to left-handed pitchers; he only hit .176/.290/.200 against southpaws in 2019. Defensively he is more than adequate at the outfield corners, and the Braves even experimented with him in centerfield for a few games and he didn’t embarrass himself. He played first base in college and in the Arizona Fall League.
Despite all of the problems he encountered in 2019, Jenista still is an intriguing power bat prospect. Despite his overall numbers, there were some things that Jenista should carry forward in 2020, likely returning to AA Mississippi to begin the season. -AH
16. Alex Jackson, C
Age: 24 | Bats: R
.229/.313/533 | 109 wRC+ | 28 HR | 1 SB | 5.8% BB | 34.2% K (AAA)
Current Assignment: MLB Atlanta
Acquired: Trade w/Seattle Mariners – 2016
Prior Year Ranking: 21
Alex Jackson, following a 2018 which was marked by significant defensive improvement, a lack of offensive production and a questionable promotion from AA to AAA late in the season, started 2019 as the primary catcher at Gwinnett. That didn’t last long, however, as he was pressed into service in Atlanta following Brian McCann having to go on the injured list and Tyler Flowers being banged up. Jackson did get three starts during his brief call-up, all of which the Braves won despite his not getting on base in any of those contests.
Upon returning to Gwinnett, Jackson took full advantage of AAA adopting the MLB baseball and hit 28 home runs in just 345 plate appearances, generating a .304 ISO. That power helped offset a subpar .229 batting average and 34% strikeout rate. He did manage a .313 OBP but that was propped up by being hit by eighteen pitches, which was an enormous outlier considering no player in MLB that was hit by at least ten pitches had fewer than 450 plate appearances.
Along the way, though, something else happened: Alex Jackson became a good defensive catcher, possibly even great. He threw out 50% of attempted basestealers and finished first in all of AAA in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) metric. He has, by all accounts, improved in all aspects of his defense including his footwork and handling of pitching staffs.
Jackson will likely begin 2020 as the lead catcher at Gwinnett once again, ready to be called up at a moment’s notice as a de facto third catcher for the Atlanta squad. With his defensive improvements and his “light tower” power, Jackson could carve out a solid career for himself bouncing between AAA and MLB even if his hit tool doesn’t develop any further due to the state of catching these days. If he can cut down on the strikeouts a bit and develop into even a .250 hitter, he could be in MLB for a very long time. -MC
15. Huascar Ynoa, RHP
Age: 21 | Throws: R
5.09 ERA | 4.99 FIP | 26 G, 17 GS | 97.1 IP | 10.1 BB/9 | 24.8 K/9 (A+/AA/AAA)
Current Assignment: AAA Gwinnett
Acquired: Trade w/Minnesota Twins – 2017
Prior Year Ranking: 18
After a solid 2018 spent at Rome and Florida, Huascar Ynoa was placed on the 40-man roster in the offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. He began 2019 at Florida where he ended the previous campaign but was not there for long as he put together three starts where he had a 3.27 ERA and struck out sixteen in eleven innings. Ynoa was quickly promoted to Mississippi where he was put into the bullpen, a sign that he would be moved along quickly due to his 40-man roster status. His stay in Pearl didn’t last long as he was promoted to Gwinnett after six appearances covering 13.2 innings, being scored upon in four of them. Ynoa’s role changed once again at Gwinnett as he was built up as a starter until being called up to the major leagues for the first time on June 15th to replace Dan Winkler. He got into his first MLB game the next day to pitch two impressive shutout innings in a 12-1 win over the Phillies but was promptly sent back to Gwinnett in favor of a fresh arm. Ynoa made another four starts for Gwinnett before being recalled as a bullpen arm once again. This time, however, his relief appearance didn’t go as well as he gave up six runs in his only inning of work at Milwaukee. That would prove to be Ynoa’s last MLB appearance of the season as he spent the remainder of 2019 in the Gwinnett rotation. Ynoa’s overall numbers weren’t pretty for Gwinnett as he put up a 5.33 ERA, 5.52 FIP, 4.82 xFIP and 4.2 walks per nine over 72.2 innings of work.
There has been some speculation that various dismissals and reassignments in the player development department that took place at the end of the 2019 season were due in part to overly aggressive promotions and if that was the case, Ynoa is Exhibit A as to why that happened. It appears the Braves spent 2019 trying to justify Ynoa’s 40-man roster status instead of letting him develop at his own pace and he ended up pitching at levels he wasn’t ready for.
Huascar Ynoa has an electric fastball that sits 93-95 and can push 100, if needed. He also has a changeup that is a great second pitch when it is on and a slider as his third pitch that he can use to keep hitters honest. He will most likely start 2020 at Gwinnett but it remains to be seen if it will be as a starter or in the bullpen. With so many other names in the Gwinnett starter mix, Ynoa could be prime trade bait this offseason. – MC
14. Michael Harris, OF
Age: 19 | Bats: S
.277/.344/.393 | 114 wRC+ | 2 HR | 8 SB | 8.5% BB | 19.8% K (Rk GCL/A)
Current Assignment: A Rome
Acquired: Drafted, 3rd Round – 2019
Prior Year Ranking: N/A
Drafted from suburban Atlanta Henry County, Harris was mostly scouted as a pitcher. The Braves however see him as a multi-tool position player, and he was easily the quickest of all of the high school players drafted by Atlanta in 2019 to adapt to the Gulf Coast League, hitting .349/.403/.514 while manning center field. With Rome in the think of a playoff push and hampered by injuries to the outfielders, the organization decided to push Harris with a double-promotion, and he started in right field the rest of the way with Justin Dean ensconced in center. The difference in play between the Gulf Coast and South Atlantic Leagues is very wide, and it wasn’t a surprise that Harris struggled upon his promotion, hitting only .183/.269/.232 for Rome.
Harris starts from a wide stance at the plate on the left side, getting two eyes on the ball as it comes in, but his bat speed is good enough to get to the zone to line hit drives to all fields. When he got to Rome, he saw more breaking pitches and as a result grounded out more, but he has good strike zone judgement and plate discipline. He shows good raw power that will likely manifest more as he fills out. From the right side his swing is much more basic, and it would not surprise me if Harris abandoned switch-hitting to focus on his left-handed swing, which is his natural side. As an outfielder, Harris has all the raw tools required to excel at the position with speed enough to cover center and a strong enough arm for right field. That speed also can translate to the basepaths and he should be an above average baserunner.
With 22 games of A-ball under his belt, Harris should now have a good idea of what adjustments he’ll need to make to hit at that level. He will likely be the top position prospect in Rome in 2020. -AH
13. Trey Harris, OF
Age: 24 | Bats: R
.323/.389/.498 | 159 wRC+ | 14 HR | 8 SB | 6.9% BB | 17.3% K (A/A+/AA)
Current Assignment: AA Mississippi
Acquired: Drafted, 32nd Round – 2018
Prior Year Ranking: 49
No Braves position player prospect raised his profile more in 2019 than former Mizzou outfielder Trey Harris. Starting on Opening Day where he ended in 2018, class A Rome, Harris began an all-out assault on opposing pitching that continued through the Florida State League, the Southern League, and even the Arizona Fall League. He didn’t stay in any one place long enough to qualify for a batting title, but his .366 mark in the SAL was 43 points higher than the league’s batting champ. His .281/.354/.456 mark in the elite AFL finally got national press to pay attention, and he appeared on several best-of lists of AFL prospects.
Harris was drafted as a college senior, and he uses his experience well in every at-bat. An intelligent hitter, Harris gets the most out of his 5′-8″, 215 pounds frame by being able to go to all fields and getting the ball into the air. Harris goes to the plate looking to put bat to ball and doesn’t walk much, but at least so far his pitch recognition and strong hands allow him to get away with this approach. Despite a body that can be described as Pucketesque, like the Twins Hall-of-Famer Harris is more athletic than appears at first glance and is an above average baserunner and can cover center field in a pinch, though his best outfield spot is in right field. Harris has a strong and accurate arm.
Harris only got 156 plate appearances at AA, but with his extra work in the AFL, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that Harris could open 2020 with the Gwinnett Stripers alongside top prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters. Harris can’t really compete with them in raw tools or expectations, but there’s a lot that dynamic duo could learn from Harris on the art of hitting. -AH
12. Patrick Weigel, RHP
Age: 25 | Throws: R
2.73 ERA | 5.14 FIP | 28 G, 18 GS | 79.0 IP | 4.67 BB/9 | 8.09 K/9 (AA/AAA)
Current Assignment: AAA Gwinnett
Acquired: Drafted, 7th Round – 2015
Prior Year Ranking: 13
Some tend to forget that back in June of 2017, Patrick Weigel was on the fast track to join the Atlanta starting rotation and was next man up after Sean Newcomb had been promoted from Gwinnett just a few days before. However, Weigel had a horrific start for Gwinnett on June 18th where he gave up nine runs in 3.1 innings, after which it was revealed that he had suffered an elbow injury and underwent Tommy John surgery on June 27th. Weigel spent the remainder of 2017 and most of 2018 rehabbing his elbow until he made four scoreless, one-inning appearances for their Gulf Coast League affiliate in August.
Weigel began 2019 with Mississippi as a limited-pitch count starter with Jeremy Walker assigned as his piggyback partner. He started out with a pitch count of around 30 per start and had built up to about 50 by the time he was promoted to Gwinnett in mid-May. Weigel continued to build to as high as five innings and 89 pitches before he was called up to Atlanta as a bullpen reinforcement on July 19th. After two days in MLB without being used, he was optioned to Gwinnett where he was generally used as a reliever for the remainder of the season. He earned one more call-up to Atlanta in early August where he was unused for four days before being returned to Gwinnett where he remained until the end of the season. Numbers-wise, Weigel finished the season with a 2.73 ERA, 1.152 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 and a 4.7 BB/9. The increased walks are understandable as control tends to be the last thing to return after Tommy John surgery and he hasn’t shown any indication of that kind of walk rate in the past. Most importantly, Weigel didn’t have any significant physical setbacks during the 2019 campaign.
Patrick Weigel has a four-pitch arsenal led by a big fastball that sits in the mid-90s but can reach into the high-90s. He also has an effective curveball and mixes in an occasional slider and change-up. Weigel will begin 2020 at Gwinnett but his role is up in the air depending on offseason activity as the potential Striper rotation could have names such as Anderson, Wright, Wilson, Muller, Ynoa, Davidson, Toussaint and De La Cruz in the mix. If the need arises, Weigel’s stuff can play up very big in the bullpen and he could play a significant role in Atlanta during the 2020 season. -MC
11. Tucker Davidson, LHP
Age: 24 | Throws: L
2.15 ERA | 3.17 FIP | 25 G, 25 GS | 129.2 IP | 3.75 BB/9 | 9.30 K/9 (AA/AAA)
Current Assignment: AAA Gwinnett
Acquired: Drafted, 19th Round — 2016
Prior Year Ranking: 32
Tucker Davidson spent the 2018 season as a starting pitcher at Florida where he was solid, but not spectacular with a 4.18 ERA, 3.98 FIP and a 4.27 xFIP in 24 starts and demonstrated control issues with a 4.4 BB/9 rate. He was promoted to Mississippi to start the 2019 season in the rotation alongside more-heralded prospects such as Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller, Patrick Weigel and Joey Wentz.
Despite the lack of attention, Davidson had a great season and led the Southern League with a 2.03 ERA, finished fifth in WHIP and seventh in strikeouts. He was also named along with Anderson as Mississippi Braves Pitchers of the Year by the Atlanta organization.
He improved in virtually every aspect of his game, including strikeout percentage (up from 19 to 27%), walk percentage (down from 11.3 to 11%), groundball percentage (up from 47 to 50%) and batting average against (down from .267 to .220). His FIP/xFIP were higher than his ERA, but both were still very good at 3.01/3.13. As a result, he was part of a mass promotion to Gwinnett in early August along with Ian Anderson, Cristian Pache and Drew Waters and finished the season with four starts at AAA where he had a 2.84 ERA but a significantly higher FIP/xFIP.
Davidson’s offerings include a fastball that sits in the low 90s with little movement although he can run it up to 95-96, an elite curveball that serves as his out pitch and a solid changeup. He needs to work on becoming more efficient in his outings as he tends to run up big pitch counts early in games as evidenced by only going more than six innings four times in 25 starts despite throwing more than 90 pitches in a dozen outings. Davidson will start 2020 as a member of the Gwinnett rotation and now that he is on the 40-man roster, that could put him in line to earn some time in Atlanta this season if he can continue to show improvement as well as acclimate to the AAA baseball. -MC
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