The Reluctant Braves and the Ghost of B.J. Upton

If there’s anything we’ve learned this offseason, it’s that Atlanta has money. Compared to recent years, the Braves are spending with abandon. It’s not even Christmas, and Atlanta has guaranteed nearly $100,000,000 to free agent acquisitions, and there’s no indication they’re done. The team is rumored to still be pursuing free agents in all circles, from the plausible (Josh Donaldson) to the redundant (Madison Bumgarner). In 2018, General Manager Alex Anthopoulos told the AJC’s Mark Bradley, “I can shop in any aisle.” While many Braves pundits cried foul when that aisle turned out to not specifically mean the 2018-19 free agent market (despite that market including Donaldson, Nick Markakis, and Brian McCann), patience did prove Anthopoulos serious. The team added considerable payroll during the 2019 season via trade acquisitions, and there have been no signs of slowing down this winter.

Despite a willingness to spend more and more – the 2019 payroll finished at $143,947,963, above the MLB average – there is something noticeable about the signings. While the front office has no problem guaranteeing big single season salaries to players like Donaldson and Cole Hamels, the team still seems to prefer short-term commitments. Why is Atlanta, crazy in love with free agents left and right, so hesitant to put a ring on any of them with a long-term deal?

William of Occam would suggest it’s merely smart business. MLB players are by nature volatile, and if you can build a winner without making serious long-term commitments, that’s a good thing. You retain flexibility, and you can always go chase the next big thing when yours leaves. It winds up costing more on a per-year basis, but if you can make it work, it’s smart baseball. And there’s little doubt that Atlanta is making it work – Atlanta’s 187 wins since the start of 2018 are the sixth-most in baseball and the second-most in the NL, trailing only the Luxury Taxed Dodgers.

However, it’s also easy to wonder if there’s something else holding Atlanta back, something from the team’s past. Under Ted Turner, Atlanta spent pretty wildly, and there were failures and successes aplenty. Most notable was the success of Greg Maddux, one of the greatest free agent signings in MLB history, one that eventually brought Atlanta its only championship. As the team got into the new century, however, spending calmed down a bit. Most was spent on retaining its stars like John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, and Chipper Jones. The Braves were no longer record-setters on the free agent market.

In 2006, the division title streak ended. How did this proud franchise respond? By turning up its nose at the free agent market. In the 2006-07 offseason, Atlanta’s most lucrative signing was infielder Craig Wilson, who the team paid $2,000,000 to slash .172/.304/.259. Of all its free agents, Mark Redman led the pack with 2.1 bWAR over the three previous seasons. It was this hubris over the seemingly predestined Baby Braves to guide the way that led to the team desperately trading for Mark Teixeira the next summer. That depleted the farm system and still didn’t lead Atlanta to the playoffs. Atlanta’s solution after 2007 was to give a 42 year old Tom Glavine, coming off a 4.42 ERA, an $8M deal. After 2008, Atlanta re-asserted itself as major free agent players when it signed Derek Lowe to a 4 year, $60,000,000 deal. While that didn’t really work as intended, the Braves got some decent, league-average production from Lowe, and the team did become competitive again. In 2010, they signed a slew of stopgaps, led by Billy Wagner, and won Bobby Cox one last division title. 2011 ended in disappointment, and 2012 ended with a Wild Card Game loss and the retirement of Chipper Jones. Atlanta needed a new star, and they ponied up in the free agent market to get one.

Atlanta signed CF Melvin Upton (known as BJ at the time) to a 5 year, $75,000,000 deal, eclipsing Lowe as the largest free agent deal in team history. At the time, it was allegedly the most money given to a player who had never received a vote in an MVP or CYA race. The only thing Upton had ever led the league in was Caught Stealing, with 16 in 2008. In fact, even as salaries have continued to blow up over the last half decade, here’s a complete list of traditional free agents to receive $75,000,000 in guarantees without ever having received such a vote:

• Zack Wheeler – 5 years, $118,000,000
• Jeff Samardzija – 5 years, $90,000,000
• Dexter Fowler – 5 years, $82,500,000
• Wei-Yin Chen – 5 years, $80,000,000
• Kenley Jansen – 5 years, $80,000,000
• Mike Leake – 5 years, $80,000,000
• Melvin “B.J.” Upton – 5 years, $75,000,000

It was a move decried by many traditional fans as an obvious waste of money. Analytically minded fans pointed toward Upton’s upside and previous all-around value, thanks to defense, baserunning, and power. The traditional-minded fans were overwhelmingly proved right, as the deal turned out to be an unmitigated disaster.  In two years with the Braves, Upton slashed .198/.279/.314 and drew the ire from all corners of the fanbase. His suddenly albatross-like contract was so bad the team traded beloved Craig Kimbrel to the Padres just to get San Diego to take Upton. To make matters more frustrating, San Diego got a very good prospect haul from Boston a year later when it flipped Kimbrel.

Upton’s contract played a key role in the decision to rebuild in Atlanta. When he was signed, his miserable play didn’t initially prevent the team from reaching goals. The Braves won 96 games and the NL East title in 2013. In 2014, however, the team fell apart, and with looming free agents like Jason Heyward and Upton’s brother Justin, along with bad MLB contracts and a barren farm system, Atlanta opted to dismantle everything. Had this free agent deal worked out as planned, that rebuild probably never becomes necessary, and recent history might have looked considerably different.

It remains the largest free agent contract ever inked by the Atlanta Braves. In fact, Atlanta has only given a deal worth even half Upton’s twice in the years since, to Nick Markakis and, recently, Will Smith.

Since 2013, here are the teams that have signed a free agent to a $50,000,000 or larger deal:

• Angels (Upton)
• Astros (Reddick)
• Blue Jays (Martin)
• Brewers (Cain, Garza)
• Cardinals (Fowler, Leake, Peralta)
• Cubs (Darvish, Heyward, Lester, Zobrist)
• Diamondbacks (Greinke, Tomas)
• Dodgers (Jansen, Pollock, Turner)
• Giants (Cueto, Melancon, Pence, Samardzija)
• Indians (Encarnacion)
• Mariners (Cano, Cruz, Kikuchi)
• Marlins (Chen)
• Mets (Cespedes x2, Granderson)
• Nationals (Corbin, Scherzer, Strasburg)
• Orioles (Cobb, Davis, Jimenez)
• Padres (Hosmer, Machado, Shields)
• Phillies (Arrieta, Harper, McCutchen, Santana, Wheeler)
• Rangers (Choo)
• Red Sox (Eovaldi, Martinez, Price, Ramirez, Sandoval)
• Reds (Moustakas)
• Rockies (Davis, Desmond)
• Royals (Gordon, Kennedy)
• Tigers (Martinez, Upton, Zimmermann)
• Twins (Santana)
• White Sox (Abreu, Grandal)
• Yankees (Chapman, Cole, Ellsbury, Headley, McCann, Tanaka)

That leaves just four teams without a $50,000,000 guarantee in free agency since 2013: the Pirates, Athletics, Rays, and Braves. And not only have nearly all teams made guarantees, but most, 18, have made multiple signings over $50 million.

This isn’t to suggest, however, that Atlanta needed to have spent that money on free agents. Obviously, they’ve found a way to win without doing so, and this isn’t a value judgment on their behavior in the open market. And, like most teams, Atlanta has shown willingness to spend on its homegrown talent. Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuna have both received large contract extensions. This isn’t an indictment. It is, however, an observation of a team conspicuously gunshy in an arena where most teams aren’t. There are teams in worse financial situations that have broken that $50,000,000 barrier. There are teams with lower aspirations that have done the same. When you’re one of the last four standing, and the other three are notoriously three of the stingiest teams in the game, it certainly qualifies as noticeable behavior. And while it hasn’t stopped Atlanta from getting helpful players, it has kept Atlanta out of the running for the truly elite players every offseason. So far, they haven’t needed any of those players to achieve regular season success. But that probably won’t always be the case.

Is Atlanta’s front office still shell-shocked from the Upton deal? Probably not on a personal level, at least for most of them. The organization has changed General Managers twice since that day, and Alex Anthopoulos has no reason to worry about accidentally repeating the past by signing the next Melvin Upton. If anything, he should be eager to exorcise the organization’s demons by breaking the record on a player that turns out to be worth every penny.

But as Atlanta searches for an impact middle of the order bat, preferably at 3B, and focuses on shorter term options like Josh Donaldson or cheaper trade options like, say, Kris Bryant, I do wonder if Atlanta’s (reportedly) relatively minimal interest in Anthony Rendon (and Manny Machado the year before) has anything to do with Melvin Upton, the shadow of his disastrous contract, and the amount of work and losing it took to escape that shadow. For team president Terry McGuirk, who was around in 2012 when Upton signed, it might. And until Atlanta breaks its free agent record, Upton’s contract will still tower over the Braves’ free agent decisions. While another bad contract could certainly come along, so too could a great one. Without the willingness to risk another Upton, you’ll never sign another Maddux.