It’s Tuesday, and in the 2020 baseball season that means the Braves have suffered something horrible and have made a change to their starting rotation. This week it’s the removal of left-hander Sean Newcomb from both rotation and the active roster as he has been optioned back to the Alternative Training Site.
In four starts this season Newcomb has whip-sawed from adequate-but-scary to cover-the-eyes-of-children bad. This has been an anything but par-for-the-course season, and there should be some latitude given for bad performances coming off a whirlwind summer camp. This isn’t the end of the road for Sean Newcomb, either as a pitcher, or as a Brave, or even as a starting pitcher necessarily. But with a shortened schedule and a backlog of young starters pawing at the Gwinnett County turf waiting for their chance, the team couldn’t wait any longer.
Anatomy Of A Tragedy
Yesterday’s first inning match-up with Bryce Harper is an instructive and dramatic example of what Newcomb has going against him right now. Before we dive into the analytics, let’s take a look at what happened
PITCH 1: 4-SEAM FASTBALL, HIGH & ON THE CORNER, SWINGING STRIKE
This will be the best pitch of the sequence, a high-velocity fastball with action, in a perfect location, thrown for a strike but almost unhittable for Harper who was obviously looking first-pitch fastball. It’s these kind of pitches that can make you a Sean Newcomb believer.
PITCH 2: 4-SEAM FASTBALL, LOW & OUTSIDE, BALL
Knowing that Harper is looking fastball and likes the ball down over the plate, Newcomb tries to get Harper to chase outside. It’s not a bad idea, and Travis d’Arnaud does a nice job of framing it, but it’s just a few inches outside and not close enough for Harper to take a hack at. Really, that’s just a good take by Harper.
PITCH 3: SLIDER, HIGH & INSIDE, BALL
Newcomb’s best off-speed pitch historically is his curveball, but against left-handers he has lately been preferring the slider. This was a non-competitive pitch — it did not have enough bite to come back to the plate, and even if it did it was high enough that Harper probably would have done damage with it if it did. But take a look at Newcomb’s delivery: his arm speed is noticeably slower and the ball comes out of his hand higher than the fastball. Any chance that Newcomb could have fooled Harper with this pitch evaporated before his fingers even finished spinning the seams. To an experienced hitter like Harper, he knows he’s not getting a fastball and knowing Newcomb he’s probably not getting a strike.
PITCH 4: SLIDER, HIGH & OUTSIDE, BALL
Ball three comes on another slider, this one sweeping well wide of the plate. This is a better pitch than the 3rd pitch, snapping off with better movement, but again, Newcomb is telegraphing the pitch with the slower arm action and higher release point. With the count now in his favor, Harper can safely watch it go by, knowing that if it does shave a corner, he will have an even count.
PITCH 5: 4-SEAM FASTBALL, MIDDLE, IN PLAY (HR)
With the count now 3-1, Harper knows that Newcomb will needs to throw a strike or run the risk of loading the bases for J.T. Realmuto, who in no way is any less of a hitter than Harper. Harper is sitting “dead red” fastball, and if Newcomb throws off-speed he’ll be able to read that in his motion and lay off. Newcomb does come back with the fastball, it has a little bit of tailing action and it’s at a pretty reasonable 95 mph, but it doesn’t matter. Harper squares it up like it’s on a tee, and deposits it in the upper-tiered Braves bullpen.
What we’re seeing here is Newcomb telegraphing his pitches. It explains why hitters have knocked around his 4-seam fastball to the tune of a .448/.484/.759 batting line against it. The only pitch that has worked for Newcomb in this short season so far has been the change-up, which explains why his use of that pitch is up 13% over last season. Newcomb’s job now is to use the time he has in Gwinnett to figure out how to better disguise his pitches. Until that is solved he won’t be a candidate for either the rotation or the bullpen.
Leave a Reply