In 2019, the Braves played their 30th game of the season on Wednesday, May 1. It was a 5-1 win for Atlanta over the San Diego Padres at home, with Max Fried throwing 7 innings, allowing 1 run, and striking out 7. Atlanta’s beleaguered bullpen held firm; newly-promoted right-hander Jacob Webb struggled in the 8th and walked two without getting an out, but Josh Tomlin bailed him out and didn’t allow either runner to score, and A.J. Minter had a drama-free 9th. Lead-off man Ozzie Albies doubled and tripled, and shortstop Dansby Swanson — ankle injury still weeks into the future — hit a home run. Ronald Acuna Jr. had the night off, though he did pinch hit and drove in a run on a fielder’s choice; he would score himself on Swanson’s homer. Old friend Matt Wisler and current Brave Robbie Erlin pitched in this game for the Padres, both notching a scoreless outing in relief.
If you don’t remember this game, don’t feel bad. It was a mid-week game against a West Coast opponent who had not yet brought up one of the most exciting young players in the minor leagues in Fernando Tatis Jr. Attendence at SunTrust Park was the third lowest of 2019 — 20,394 paid, the only lower attended games for Atlanta were the two games prior in the same series. San Diego just wasn’t a great draw. The win would bring the Braves back to .500 at 15-15, a mark the Braves had floated around since mid-April and would continue to do so until the bullpen stabilized in mid-May, Acuna would firmly establish himself as the best lead-off hitter in the National League, Josh Donaldson would start a remarkable surge, and the Braves would cruise to their second consecutive NL East pennant. But in 2019 — much like almost all of the major league seasons in the live-ball era, the 30th game of the season was thoroughly unremarkable.
In 2020, the 30th game of the season is the halfway point of the season, and only five days away from the trading deadline. It was the second game of a doubleheader with the New York Yankees, a team that the NL East teams face quite a bit, along with the other AL East teams, thanks to the desire by MLB to limit travel for teams in the Time of COVID. It was a good and productive day — the Braves won both games of the doubleheader, both 7-inning affairs, a new rule adopted from the minor leagues to help teams that will have to play an increased amount of doubleheaders due to the compressed schedule and the increased chance of a COVID outbreak postponing a week of games for teams — something that has already happened to twice. It brought the Braves up to an 18-12 record, put them 2 games ahead of second-place Miami, and according to Baseball-Reference they now stand at a 98.1% chance of making the postseason, a 79.6% of winning the NL East outright.
It’s worthwhile to point out that 30 games is not nearly enough of a sample size to evaluate the full talent (or lack thereof) of a team. It is enough to look at trends however, and this is what I’ll attempt to do with the 2020 Atlanta Braves at this improbable halfway point of the season.
Infield (Grade: C)
| Player | PA | wRC+ | Barrels | UZR/150 | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Freeman | 123 | 162 | 11 | 10.4 | 1.0 |
| Dansby Swanson | 125 | 129 | 8 | -11.6 | 1.0 |
| Charlie Culberson | 7 | 3 | 1 | 6.9 | -0.1 |
| Adeiny Hechavarria | 26 | 25 | 0 | 6.4 | -0.1 |
| Johan Camargo | 95 | 47 | 3 | 18.4 | -0.3 |
| Austin Riley | 90 | 65 | 6 | -22.7 | -0.4 |
| Ozzie Albies | 46 | 21 | 2 | 1.1 | -0.4 |
| Matt Adams | 48 | 55 | 3 | N/A | -0.4 |
The Braves have gotten strong production from first base and shortstop, and negative production from second and third base.
Despite being diagnosed with COVID-19 at intake in July and missing most of summer camp, first baseman Freddie Freeman was able to be ready for Opening Day, but he admits that he has not been up to full strength. Yesterday he told reporters that “things are starting to click in the last couple of weeks”. Game logs corroborate this, with Freeman hitting .200/.333/.380 through the first 15 games and .404/.508/.750 over the last 15 games. Put them together and you get approximately the production one would expect from Freeman based on his performance over the last several years, with a chance that continued physical recovery would help him even elevate that over the rest of this short season.
Shortstop Dansby Swanson has made a habit of hot starts over the last several years, and in this shortened season that may be enough for him to be the most valuable position player on the team. Swanson has been especially good out of the lead-off spot while Acuna was sidelined with a wrist injury, batting .383/.396/.574 in 10 games. Swanson is currently riding an 11-game hitting streak, and even his much-publicized weakness against sliders has been mitigated to some degree — his .276 wOBA against sliders would be a career high for him if he is able to maintain. Against fastballs however, he has become absolutely deadly, hitting .472/.500/.806 against four-seamers and .400/.444/.600 against two-seamers.
At second base, Ozzie Albies was affected early on by a wrist injury suffered at the end of summer camp. The injury made Albies ineffective at the plate, especially on the right side, typically his stronger side. The injury eventually forced him to the injured list, and reports are that he could be back in early September.
In his place, Johan Camargo has gotten most of the time at second base, where he has rated as roughly major league average defensively (metrics show much stronger for him at third base). Offensively, his first 30 games have been disastrous, and he’s currently last on the team and fifth lowest in baseball in wRC+ among qualified batters. I would chalk this up to low sample size nonsense if the metrics didn’t trend along with his prior seasons as well, with average velocity seeming to often be beyond his limits and change-ups utterly confounding him. His plate appearances seem unfocused and undisciplined. Until he can speed up the bat and start barreling fastballs with some consistency, Camargo will continue to be a relative easy out in the Braves line-up.
Back in the spring, both Camargo and his competition at third base, Austin Riley, were hitting well. Neither were able to carry that over to August after the shutdown, with Riley only managing 4 hits through the team’s first 15 games. Riley also had well-publicized struggles against the slider in 2019, and he seems to be acutely aware of this issue. In fact, this season he has been punishing bad breaking balls, hitting all four of his home runs this season off sliders or curveballs. The trade-off has been an inability to catch up with the fastball, and he has struck out 45 times this season on the four-seamer. The good news is that Riley seems to be starting to break out of this rut, and in his last 15 games he has hit a relatively good .265/.294/.408 while more consistently barreling the ball. Defensively, Riley has looked better than perhaps the number indicate, with his main deficiency being on rushed throws to first base. Given that he primarily played outfield in 2019, Riley may simply need to get used to the speed of the game at third, where he had developed into an above average defender in the minor leagues.
Matt Adams was added to the team just before the start of the season, his second stint with the Braves. The primary designated hitter against right-handed pitchers for the first two weeks of the season, Adams did not hit well and was sidelined with a hamstring injury for 10 days. The return of Nick Markakis to the team has essentially taken away his reason for being on the team, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna’s defensive troubles and hot bat has taken away his spot in the line-up. What Adams has had this season is a knack for hitting in crucial moments, with both of his home runs coming at critical times in games. This has gotten Adams some good will from fans, but as players get healthy it becomes harder to see where Adams’s place will be on the team as a platoon hitter and sub-par defender.
Adeiny Hechavarria has been a solid defender at both shortstop and second base, which is pretty much what the Braves require of him. Charlie Culberson has barely played this season, a seemingly forgotten man. One would think he would be a candidate to be designated for assignment when Ozzie Albies returns, but Culberson is well-respected on the team and is a legitimate threat against left-handed pitchers.
Catcher (Grade: A)
| Player | PA | wRC+ | Barrels | Strike Rate (Framing) | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis d'Arnaud | 72 | 141 | 6 | 49.8% | 0.7 |
| Tyler Flowers | 33 | 174 | 1 | 49.8% | 0.5 |
| William Contreras | 10 | 144 | 1 | N/A | 0.1 |
| Alex Jackson | 7 | 97 | 0 | N/A | -0.1 |
Overall the Braves have the third-highest valued catching corps based on fWAR (and first by bWAR, if that’s more your jam). The free agent signing of Travis d’Arnaud has been a rousing success over the first 30 games, with Tyler Flowers proving once again to be a valuable second catcher. The Braves however dodged a bullet when both catchers were placed on COVID quarantine just as the season was getting underway when they both showed possible symptoms of infection. Fortunately for everyone involved, it turned out just to be a case of the flu.
d’Arnaud has continued his offensive resurgence that began after he joined the Tampa Bay Rays in mid-season 2019. Like most hitters, historically d’Arnaud has had trouble against sliders, but he has been feasting on them this year, hitting .421/.450/.789 with 5 of his 11 extra base hits against the pitch. The good news is that he’s also hitting the fastball well, indicating that he’s simply seeing and reading the ball well, not just guessing correctly. Even if d’Arnaud’s barrell rate slips back to more career norms, he will stand out as an above average valued catcher, and a free agent bargain.
With d’Arnaud’s hot start, Tyler Flowers is catching less than in prior years. That may explain why both his bat and his mitt have been playing up this season. Flowers typically has good hard hit rates, but even so his .667(!) BABiP isn’t in anyway sustainable, but he should continue to fair well at the plate, especially against right-handed pitchers.
When Flowers and d’Arnaud were out of commission for the first week of the season, rookies Alex Jackson and William Contreras were both pressed into service and acquitted themselves well. Jackson is now showing out to be an above-average defender, and would likely be the first choice to return as a regular part of the roster if Flowers or d’Arnaud have to miss time again. Contreras has flashed a much improved batting profile in the spring, summer, and in his brief call-up, and projects to be a front-line catcher soon. He did show to have some difficulty with pitch blocking while up with the big league club, something that I’m sure he’s working on at the alternate training site.
Outfield (Grade: C+)
| Player | PA | wRC+ | Barrels | UZR/150 | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna | 124 | 145 | 9 | -32.0 | 0.7 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 84 | 148 | 5 | 7.7 | 0.7 |
| Nick Markakis | 43 | 176 | 1 | -25.8 | 0.3 |
| Adam Duvall | 86 | 90 | 7 | 5.5 | 0.1 |
| Scott Schebler | 1 | N/A | 0 | N/A | 0.0 |
| Cristian Pache | 4 | 32 | 0 | N/A | 0.0 |
| Ender Inciarte | 80 | 46 | 1 | -7.9 | -0.2 |
Despite injuries to key players and poor production from others forcing a wide array of defensive alignments and line-ups , the Braves outfield unit has been a productive unit in the first 30 games.
Another free agent signing, Marcell Ozuna has done much of what Josh Donaldson did for Atlanta in 2019, at least at the plate, currently placing in the top 20 in the majors among outfielders in wRC+ and tied for third in the NL in home runs. Peripheral metrics showed that Ozuna was exceptionally unlucky on batted balls in 2019, and the Braves bet on that to be true and are reaping the rewards. On the flipside, metrics showing Ozuna to be a steadily declining defensive player have proven to be accurate, and defensive miscues, especially in the few times the Braves placed Ozuna in right field, have set back his overall value. The Braves seem to be leaning towards making Ozuna the permanent designated hitter the rest of the way, and that would serve to improve the team both defensively and offensively, by taking away plate appearances from Matt Adams.
In his short major league career, Ronald Acuna has shown a pattern of getting off to a slow start first week or two before exploding and this season showed not to be an exception. Unfortunately, just as this was unfolding Acuña suffered a wrist injury while sliding into a base, causing him to miss 11 games. That the Braves have been able to not only withstand but improve their record while Acuña and Albies have missed time is remarkable and makes this fan look forward to having the line-up complete in the second half. Defensively Acuña has acquitted himself well in both center and right field, with Acuña at this point representing a defensive step up when moving to center over Ender Inciarte.
Speaking of Inciarte, I wish that there was better news to report. The steady downward slide in both the field and at the plate have continued into 2020 from last season. Inciarte simply has not been able to hit the ball with authority at all, and he ranks 195th out of 195 batters with a minimum of 80 plate appearances in exit velocity… and its not even close to the 194th on the list. Inciarte also is pulling the ball on the ground more often than any time in his career, rolling over the ball into shifted infield defenses with regularity. At this point, bunting the ball down the third base line would seem to be a legitimate regular weapon for him. Defensively, the once-elite outfielder has declined as well, and no longer rates at even an average defensive centerfielder. It’s a sad state for one of the most valuable Braves players as recently as two years ago, and the Braves have to be considering an upgrade at this point, either through bringing up prospect Cristian Pache to play full time or moving Acuña to centerfield. This is corroborated by the Braves first two line-ups upon Acuña’s return — neither game in Wednesday’s doubleheader featured Inciarte despite the Yankees starting two right-handed pitchers. At least for now, the planned Inciarte/Duvall outfield platoon is apparently over. The Braves have 8.7 million reasons committed in the 2021 season to hope for an Inciarte rebound, and at 29 years old its not impossible that happens, but for now Inciarte will have to accept a reduced role.
Adam Duvall has been a solid-average player thanks to above average defense and occasional power. In a normal season, Duvall would be on-pace for a 25-30 home run season with a low batting average and on-base percentage — pretty much the player he was with Cincinnati in his best years of 2016-2017. For the Braves, it would be better to get him back to the planned platoon — he’s hitting .304/.360/.522 against left-handers and .214/.262/.393 against right-handers, trends that mirror his career.
A natural platoon partner could be Nick Markakis, who is still the only major league player to opt back into the season after initially opting out. This has been a milestone season for Markakis despite only playing 14 games between the opt-out period and a brief COVID scare. He collected his 500th career double and on Tuesday moved past Babe Ruth on the all-time doubles list. At age 36 he remains a formidable hitter against right-handers. Ideally this would be as half of a designated hitter platoon give his lack of range and arm in the outfield, but even so he’s clearly a better option than Marcell Ozuna.
The seemingly obvious internal answer to resolve the outfield is to promote and play Cristian Pache every day. Perhaps the most controversial moment of the season occurred last week, when Pache was promoted to the majors, but only started one game, with Inciarte in the line-up and Pache on the bench for three other games. When questioned about this, manager Brian Snitker indicated that Pache was only up to provide late-inning defense while Markakis and Acuña were shelved; indeed Pache was returned to the Alternate Training Site once Markakis was activated. It’s almost inconceivable at this point that Pache wouldn’t provide more major league value now than Inciarte, with Markakis and Duvall platooning in one of the outfield corners.
The Braves also briefly had former Red Scott Schebler on the major league roster after purchasing his contract from Cincinnati. Schebler hit 30 home runs for Cincinnati in 2017, but has mostly struggled since then. It seems likely the Braves only acquired Schebler for left-handed depth before Markakis re-joined the team, and Schebler was designated for assignment shortly thereafter. Unless there is a rash of outfield injuries, it seems unlikely Schebler will return to the Atlanta Braves this season.
Starting Pitching (Grade: D+)
| Player | IP (as starter) | ERA | xFIP | K/9 | BB/9 | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | 40.0 | 1.35 | 3.58 | 8.55 | 2.70 | 1.5 |
| Mike Soroka | 13.2 | 3.95 | 4.60 | 5.27 | 4.61 | 0.3 |
| Robbie Erlin | 8.0 | 2.25 | 5.70 | 9.00 | 2.25 | 0.2 |
| Ian Anderson | 6.0 | 1.50 | 4.28 | 9.00 | 3.00 | 0.1 |
| Touki Toussaint | 17.2 | 6.11 | 4.42 | 10.70 | 5.09 | 0.0 |
| Josh Tomlin | 7.0 | 7.71 | 3.82 | 9.00 | 1.29 | -0.1 |
| Kyle Wright | 15.0 | 7.20 | 6.32 | 7.20 | 9.60 | -0.1 |
| Sean Newcomb | 13.2 | 11.20 | 6.53 | 6.59 | 3.95 | -0.2 |
| Huascar Ynoa | 3.1 | 8.10 | 8.50 | 2.70 | 10.80 | -0.3 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | 3.1 | 16.20 | 7.88 | 8.10 | 10.80 | -0.3 |
Let me put this as bluntly as possible — the Braves are lucky that Max Fried has realized his promise this year, because without him its likely this season would be sunk. Fried has made himself a Cy Young candidate by limiting hard contact, mainly through better fastball command. Since arriving in the big leagues, Fried has also incorporated 2 more pitches, and all 5 of his pitches now rate as above average to plus-plus, with the new sinker and slider become real difference-makers against hitter from both sides of the plate. Through the first half of the season, Fried has absolutely been the most valuable player on the team.
Free agent signee Cole Hamels has not faced a live batter wearing a Braves uniform in a game or in practice after first experiencing shoulder inflammation this spring and then triceps tendinitis this summer. Hamels was placed on the 45-day injured list to start the season and would be eligible to return on September 8, but it does not appear that will be what happens. Even if he is able to return, it may be unrealistic that he would be able to step immediately into an important role given his long lay-off.
The Braves Opening Day starter was right-hander Mike Soroka, fresh off second-place Rookie of the Year and Top 5 ERA title finish in 2019. Soroka was pitching well as expected for two starts before tearing his Achilles tendon in the third inning of his third start, leaving the Braves sorely depleted in the rotation. Soroka’s injury has been by far the most major set-back for the club this season.
Another major set-back was the sudden loss in velocity of Mike Foltynewicz‘s fastball. Always more dependent on “stuff” than command or location, the Braves determined by the third inning of his first start that his stuff no longer would be able to play at the major league level, and the team designated his for assignment. No team claimed him, and he is now biding his time at the Alternate Training Site. The team believes that Foltynewicz lost too much weight during the course of the shutdown, and he is reportedly working on bringing himself back up to game weight. While it’s certainly within the realm of possibility that Foltynewicz recovers and could be an asset for the team down the stretch, it is at least as equally possible at this point that Foltynewicz has thrown his last pitch for the Atlanta Braves.
Mondays have not been kind to Braves starting pitchers, with each Monday starter losing his spot in the rotation. Foltynewicz was the first to go, followed by Soroka. The third was left-hander Sean Newcomb, who used a stellar spring training to get another look in the rotation after having been bounced to the bullpen in 2019. Four starts into the season however, and it had become clear that Newcomb faced some substantial mechanical problems, and at that point it was unlikely that he would be successful in any role. I wrote about Newcomb’s issues a few weeks ago. While it seems likely Newcomb will return to the Braves at some point, that point may not be in 2020.
The fourth Monday start went to right-hander Touki Toussaint, who took Newcomb’s spot in the rotation. Toussaint was slowed in summer camp by a positive COVID-19 test, though he remained asymptomatic, abut he showed enough upon his return to make the squad as a reliever. Toussaint looked like he was making good progress over his first three starts, but on his start on Monday, August 17 against Washington, the wheels fell off. Toussaint seemed to completely lose his release point and feel to pitch over the course of the 2nd inning of that game. Toussaint struggled through three innings, but his next outing for Atlanta came as a reliever. In that outing Toussaint showed the same issues with feel and control, and he was sent down to the Alternate Training Site. At this point it’s difficult to know what to make of Toussaint, who has undeniable talent, but has suddenly regressed both in terms of control and in allowing hard contact.
Even more discouraging has been the pitching of Kyle Wright, the Braves 2017 first-round draft pick. Also slowed this spring by a COVID-related quarantine, Wright was nonetheless handed a spot in the rotation based on how he finished out his AAA season in 2019 and a promising look in spring training. Like Toussaint, Wright has shown moments where is seems like he’s about to put it all together, only to be undone by bouts of poor command. While batters have not been hitting Wright as hard, when they do they tend to do so in bunches, leading to explosive innings. Wright has also been sent to the Alternate Training Site, but there is good chance the Braves may give him another opportunity when a 5th starter is required. Still, for a high-round, college draft pick who was supposed to be a near-finished product when drafted, Wright’s 2020 season — and in fact his pro career — has been disappointing.
With that unpleasantness out of the way, we can turn to Ian Anderson, who made his major league debut on Wednesday against the Yankees, pitching the first game of the double-header. The top pitching prospect in the system and the first-round pick of Atlanta in 2016, Anderson for at least the first start was everything the Braves could have hoped for. Showing a level of calm and control beyond his years, Anderson no-hit the Yankees until one out into the 6th inning. Anderson dominated with predominantly a four-seam fastball and change-up combination, occasionally mixing in a curve. Yankees batters had a difficult time picking up the change-up, and Anderson clocked a 44.4% whiff rate with the pitch. While there will no doubt be bad starts in the future, the first impression made on a team that desperately needed one of their young stud pitching prospects to come through was undeniably good.
The rest of the starters have been really relievers pressed into “opener” duty. This is mostly worked well thanks to the outstanding work of the bullpen (see below). Of the three openers, each of whom having two starts under his belt, waiver-wire pick-up Robbie Erlin has been the most effective. Erlin has allowed two runs in 8 innings in his two starts, pitching very efficiently and going through the opposing line-up twice. Erlin’s plan of attack is simple, pound the zone with his low-90s fastball, get ahead in counts, and try to get hitters to make weak contact on off-speed. It’s worked for the most part, at least in his starting pitching outings, and the Braves seem inclined to keep trotting him out there as long as it works.
Veteran Josh Tomlin hasn’t fared quite as well in the opener role, Tomlin’s methodology is similar to Erlin’s, pound the zone, pitch to contact, and use defenders to get efficient outs. That mostly worked in his first opening assignment, but against the Phillies on August 23, he simply left too many hittable pitches in the zone and Phillies hitters were able to get the ball in the air, taking Tomlin deep three times. Tomlin will face those same Phillies on Saturday.
Finally, rookie Huascar Ynoa has been utilized as an opener twice, but now seems have found a niche on the team in middle relief. Used primarily as a starter in the minors and possessing a starter’s arsenal, Ynoa has primarily been utilizing a four-seam fastball, change-up, and slider in his outings. The change-up has been a strong pitch for him in the minors, but it’s been hit hard in his outings this season, though in only 8 innings pitched it’s hard to draw conclusions. Ynoa flashes potential to be dominating, but like most of Atlanta’s young pitchers he goes through bouts of wildness.
Bullpen (Grade: A)
| Player | IP (as reliever) | ERA | xFIP | K/9 | BB/9 | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Matzek | 13.0 | 4.15 | 1.31 | 12.46 | 2.77 | 0.5 |
| Josh Tomlin | 11.1 | 1.59 | 1.13 | 12.71 | 2.38 | 0.4 |
| A.J. Minter | 10.0 | 0.90 | 1.86 | 9.90 | 2.70 | 0.3 |
| Shane Greene | 13.1 | 0.68 | 2.56 | 6.75 | 2.03 | 0.3 |
| Darren O'Day | 8.1 | 1.08 | 1.96 | 11.88 | 3.24 | 0.2 |
| Mark Melancon | 10.0` | 1.80 | 3.36 | 4.50 | 2.70 | 0.2 |
| Luke Jackson | 12.0 | 3.75 | 3.16 | 6.75 | 4.50 | 0.2 |
| Huascar Ynoa | 5.0 | 1.80 | 2.36 | 9.00 | 3.60 | 0.1 |
| Grant Dayton | 14.0 | 3.21 | 4.16 | 10.93 | 1.93 | 0.1 |
| Chad Sobotka | 3.0 | 0.00 | 4.49 | 3.00 | 6.00 | 0.0 |
| Chris Martin | 6.0 | 1.50 | 4.99 | 6.00 | 1.50 | 0.0 |
| Touki Toussaint | 4.0 | 15.75 | 6.65 | 15.75 | 6.75 | -0.1 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | 5.0 | 7.20 | 6.35 | 5.40 | 5.40 | -0.1 |
| Chris Rusin | 3.1 | 8.10 | 7.95 | 8.10 | 8.10 | -0.1 |
| Bryse Wilson | 1.2 | 10.80 | 17.55 | 10.80 | 21.60 | -0.1 |
| Will Smith | 4.2 | 3.86 | 8.08 | 5.79 | 1.93 | -0.2 |
| Robbie Erlin | 2.2 | 13.50 | 14.03 | 16.88 | 0.00 | -0.2 |
What a difference a year makes. After suffering a bullpen meltdown through the first month of the 2019 season, Atlanta’s re-made bullpen has been second to only the Dodgers in total value.
The Braves have invested heavily in both dollars and trade capital to makes this happen, but this season it has saved the team as the starting rotation takes its lumps.
The pen can roughly be divided into thirds: low-leverage relievers, high-leverage relievers, and guys just passing through.
Low-Leverage Relievers
This group would be comprised of Tyler Matzek, Josh Tomlin, A.J. Minter, Darren O’Day, Luke Jackson, Huascar Ynoa, and Grant Dayton.
This is a mostly unheralded group that has done well beyond expectations. The biggest surprise coming out of here is the pitching of left-hander Tyler Matzek, a top Rockies prospect early in the prior decade who had fallen out of affiliated ball after the 2016 season, pitched in the independent leagues, got a handle on some anxiety issues, and ended up as a mostly-ignored August 2019 minor league signing for Atlanta. Maztek was even given an invitation to big league camp, but made the most out of some garbage-time Grapefruit League opportunities, which carried over to summer camp. Matzek has been successful thanks to good command of a mid-90s fastball, but has had trouble against right-handers; as currently used as a multi-inning middle reliever this could become a problem if not corrected.
Josh Tomlin returned to the Braves on a minor-league contract with an invitation, somewhat surprising given his success in the Atlanta bullpen in 2019. Tomlin has proceeded to make the other 29 teams regret not giving him a guaranteed deal by bettering his 2019 numbers and even upping his strikeout rate thanks to a fastball that shows more life on it. Currently in use as an opener, it would probably behoove the Braves to get Tomlin back in the ‘pen before too long or risk overexposure.
A.J. Minter is back and healthy after a snake-bit 2019 that saw him suffer a shoulder injury in a traffic altercation in spring training. Minter could never really get on track, and he found himself optioned back to AAA by mid-season. No player on the team probably benefited more from the shutdown, as Minter used the time to fine-tune the slider that was his go-to out pitch in his mad dash up the org ladder before his 2017 debut. That slider had morphed into more of a cutter, and opponents hit .274/.366/.371 off that pitch last year. With more of a vertical break to it this year, it has improved to .235/.278/.353, his strikeout rate with improving by 12% over the prior year.
Acquired in the same trade as Kevin Gausman at the 2018 trade deadline, Darren O’Day‘s first appearance with the Braves came after Gausman had already moved on from the team as he dealt first with rehab from hamstring surgery he had undergone while still with Baltimore, the a forearm injury suffered in spring training last year. O’Day re-signed with Atlanta this offseason, and so far it’s been a good match for both team and player as O’Day has put in solid workman-like performances similar to what Baltimore got with him for the better part of 7 years.
Somewhat of a lightning rod for fans, Luke Jackson has been a quality middle reliever for Atlanta for over a year now. Detractors will point to his high walk rate and inability to have clean outings. Supporters will point to his ability of miss barrels and generate strikeouts. Both sides are right, and what it evens out to is a dependable, but not infallible, middle reliever.
Huascar Ynoa hasn’t had many appearances, but to date his work out of the bullpen has been better than his two outings as an opener. The sample size is of course very small, so it shouldn’t be seen as any indication on if he could eventually develop into a quality starting pitcher. By watching him pitch however, it’s clear that his mid-90s fastball and slider combo certainly could play in major league bullpens, perhaps as a high-leverage reliever. The key for Ynoa developing into more than that is the consistency of his change-up, which can be devastating in some outings, but has not shown up in games enough to be considered a reliable pitch.
Finally there is the mystery of Grant Dayton. Now a full two years after Tommy John surgery, Dayton is starting to flash some of the stuff that made him a rising star in Los Angeles before the injury. Like a lot of Atlanta relievers, he seems also to have taken to heart the example of Josh Tomlin — throw strikes and let your stuff and your defense work for you. This has resulted so far in a career-best low walk rate, but it remains to be seen if Dayton will be able to minimize hard contact over a large sample size.
High-Leverage Relievers
This group would include Shane Greene, Mark Melancon, Chris Martin, and Will Smith.
A well-paid group of hired guns, this squad has mostly fit the bill outside of an unfortunate COVID-19 quarantine and an IL stint for an esophageal constriction.
Of the three high-profile trades the Braves made at the deadline last year to acquire relief help, Shane Greene was the most disappointing of the trio. That reality has flipped for 2020 however. He’s not doing anything new, except more heavily leaning on his elite sinker/slider combo and completely abandoning his four-seam fastball. Never a pitcher to walk a lot of batters, he’s taken that to an extreme now. On the flipside he hasn’t being striking out as many people as typical, but that may be simply because hasn’t needed to given that he’s rarely been in trouble in his 13.1 innings of work so far.
Mark Melancon has been acting as the team’s closer, converting 5 save opportunities to date and blowing only 1. He’s only thrown 10 innings, but a somewhat concerning development that’s worth keeping an eye on is a dip in his strikeout rate. It’s probably nothing and just the result of small sample bias. Unless it’s not, and the league has figured out his curveball.
Another small sample size belongs to right-hander Chris Martin, the victim of the previously mentioned esophageal constriction. When healthy, Martin generates groundballs and neutralizes left-handed batters despite being right-handed.
Finally there is Will Smith, a big free-agent acquisition this offseason. Smith, along with Freddie Freeman and Touki Toussaint, tested positive for COVID-19 at intake and was held in quarantine. It took longer for Smith to get the required two consecutive negative tests however, despite being asymptomatic, so he was unable to rejoin the team until the third week of the season and has pitched less than five innings on the year. Smith was an elite-level reliever for San Francisco the prior two seasons so Smith should be OK once he shakes off any residual rust. Unfortunately so far his Braves career is mostly remembered for getting into a verbal confrontation with Nationals outfielder Juan Soto after Soto blasted a mammoth home run off of him and stayed in the box admiring the shot a little too long for Smith’s sensibilities.
Just Passing Through
The expanded 2020 rosters have given the Braves an opportunity to carry an enormous bullpen. The 12 players mentioned have been the primary corps, but there’s also a group here that have filled in for injury or just whenever the team wanted to look at someone else.
Chad Sobotka holds the record on the season for being added and optioned out. A former prospect with an eye-popping slider and top-notch velocity, Sobotka’s bugaboo so far in his career is control.
Touki Toussaint has appeared out of the bullpen twice this season. The first was in relief of Mike Foltynewicz in his one and only start on the season. While the numbers didn’t look great, he impressed with his ability to eventually get the game back under control, which was enough to give the him Foltynewicz’s spot in the rotation, albeit temporarily. His second bullpen outing on the contrary looks better on paper than it did in real life as Toussaint carried over his loss of feel from his prior start. Toussaint was optioned out not long after.
Opening Day was only a six week ago, but it feels so much longer. Case in point — do you remember that Jhoulys Chacin was a member of that roster? After a disasterous 2019 campaign for Milwaukee and Boston, Chacin was cut during summer camp by the Twins. Desperate for veteran pitching depth, the Braves pounced. Chacin made two relief appearances, the first being 3.2 inning shut-out innings of the Mets in the third game of the season that allowed the Braves offense time to overcome a shaky Sean Newcomb first start. The second was a disaster, and the Braves had seen enough to pull the plug on the Chacin experiment. No longer with the organization, Chacin could be facing down the end of his 12-year major league career.
Chris Rusin passed through the major league squad when a rash of injuries and poor starting performances required the team to pull in a guy who could eat some bullpen innings. Rusin chewed through 3.1 one tough innings and was sent back down not long after.
Prospect Bryse Wilson was called up to essentially audition for a starting pitching job, and he got his opportunity in the wake of Toussaint’s last disastrous outing. Unfortunately Wilson didn’t exactly take the bull by the horns, showing his own control issues, exactly the opposite of what he wanted in the wake of Toussaint’s troubles. He was sent back to the Alternate Training Site to work on his secondaries and await another opportunity.
Finally there is Robbie Erlin. Acquired for cash after the Pirates designated him for assignment, the Braves were scrambling for yet more innings eaters. While so far the opener experiment with Erlin has worked, his first appearance for Atlanta didn’t make a good impression. Entering the game in relief of Sean Newcomb with the bases loaded, Erlin gave up a grand slam to Philadelphia’s Didi Gregorius on the first pitch. Three pitches later, he would give up a solo shot to Jean Segura. Things could only get better from there, and at least so for for Erlin, they have.
OVERALL GRADE: B-
Which is good enough for first place in the NL East.
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