Braves Offseason Priorities for 2021

It’s the first day of the World Series, and this is the fourth post-season “priorities” piece I have written (see 2020, 2019, and 2018), and by far this is the most difficult. This isn’t just due to the disappointing end to what was shaping up as a remarkable Atlanta Braves postseason run — 6 consecutive victories, the coming out party of a slew of rookie pitchers, and a 3-1 NLCS lead over the heavily-favored Dodgers that went up in smoke — but also due to the continuing COVID-19 pandemic that is still causing tens of thousands of new cases a day even now, 8 months since it first came to North American shores. Baseball executives, owners, players, and fans don’t know right now a lot of critical information about the 2021 season. Will there be a 162-game regular season? Will fans be permitted to attend, and if so at which facilities and how many? What about spring training? What about the minor leagues?

Furthermore, how will front offices budget after a season where every organization likely lost money?

The Braves are no different, but in some ways are in better shape than most thanks to a very young core of good-to-elite players under team control. In fact, if the Braves simply did nothing this offseason except get healthy and continue developing their young players, they likely would be among the favorites to once again to reach post-season play. Doing that however would be foolhardy from a depth perspective, and it would also leave a Marcell Ozuna-sized hole in the middle of the batting order. Even so, this is a relatively complete team compared to most others.

As it stands, with just current obligations, expected arbitration raises, and minimum salary tenders, the team payroll is around $110 million for 2021. The Braves can lower that by non-tendering some arbitration eligible players, with Luke Jackson, Johan Camargo, Grant Dayton, and to a lesser extent Sean Newcomb the most likely. Ender Inciarte will likely be offered up in trades, but with now two poor seasons in a row and a little over $9 million guaranteed on the rest of his contract, any trade would likely involve sending cash and/or a prospect with him just to clear up a roster spot. There will also be a decision to be made about picking up Darren O’Day‘s $3.5 million option; in previous years that would be a no-brainer pickup given his 2020 performance, but with the likelihood of a cold, cold free agency this winter it may not be in 2021.

There was no final reported payroll budget for 2020, as is typical with the Braves since they don’t disclose that information, and in any case the abbreviated season and pro-rated salary payouts make that mark nearly useless. That said, before the pandemic, I estimated that the 2020 payroll would be around $160 million. Given the losses incurred by the team in 2020, there would almost certainly be a payroll reduction in the cards, perhaps around 25%, which would put the final estimated 2021 payroll around $120 million. The team will want a payroll cushion so they can adjust in-season with trades, the non-tenders that I mention above, and declining O’Day’s option, the starting payroll would be around $96 million, giving the Braves around $16 million to spend while maintaining an $8 million reserve.

With a likely record number of non-tendered players added to the free agent pool this offseason, it may be that one or all of these players could also settle on a team-friendly one-year deal to lock in a salary without the uncertainty of free agency. With essentially every team likely also to want to lower payroll, there could be some deals to be had on the trade market; this article doesn’t delve into this possibility, but trading would be the more likely way the Braves would make a Big Move this offseason.

Regardless, the top priority for the Atlanta Braves this off-season is eminently doable for the team since it requires no outlay of 2021 payroll.

Priority 1: Lock Up Freddie Freeman

With Freddie Freeman coming upon the final year of the 8 year, $135 million deal he signed with the team in February 2014, it should be a priority for the Braves to lock down the perennial MVP candidate. Freeman has made it clear to anyone who wants to talk about it with him that his preference would be to remain with his now hometown team, and even with the emergence of young starters like Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Dansby Swanson he remains the steadiest and highest performer on the team.

Freeman is already on the books for 2021 to the tune of $22 million. He just turned 31 years old, and he has entered a time in his professional career where a gradual, yet consistent decline in performance should be expected. That said, Freeman is hitting at such a high level currently that there shouldn’t be an expectation that a Freeman decline would cause a reasonable deal to go underwater for the team soon. As a first baseman, a loss of defensive skill, the first area where age typically effects a player, won’t cause his overall value to plummet appreciably since the value between a good first baseman and an average one is relatively small.

Locking up Freeman now would also be a big “thank you” to the fanbase at a time when everyone could probably use it. If I were the Braves, I would offer four years and $80 million, and if I were Freeman’s agent I would ask for ten years and $225 million, with the two meeting about halfway at seven years and $163 million.

Priority 2: Acquire an Outfielder and/or a Designated Hitter

With Marcell Ozuna leading the National League in 2020 in home runs and RBI, there’s no doubt that offers to the vivacious soon-to-be 30-year-old will be much more numerous and lucrative than in 2019, when the qualifying offer attached to Ozuna by the St. Louis Cardinals considerably cooled interest after a third mediocre and injury-plagued season. Not only would Ozuna be missed on the field should he depart the Braves, but also in the clubhouse, where manager Brian Snitker praised his leadership and mentoring of young players.

One of the many things we don’t know about 2021 is if the league and the union will agree to continue to utilize the Designated Hitter rule in the National League. The two sides agreed to the rule for 2020 as one of the ways to help minimize the possibility of pitcher injuries, but there is no certainty that agreement will continue in 2021. Seeing as the DH would be a position that most National League teams would need to spend on in order to stay competitive, the question really is one for ownership since the union certainly will want it to continue. With revenues down in 2020, going back to the traditional 9-fielders/9-hitters rule could save NL owners payroll in the short-term. It’s also a likely bargaining chip for owners in the new CBA talks, which expire after the 2021 season and is another complicating factor in this coming year. That said, Commissioner Rob Manfred has indicated that a majority of NL owners now seem to be in favor of the DH rule. Whatever happens, resolving the DH question should be one of the first orders of business for the league this offseason.

The answer to that question will have a significant impact on the Braves and other NL teams that would consider Ozuna. Simply put, Marcell Ozuna was a disappointment defensively as a left fielder, and a disaster in right field. It is possible that regardless of the impact Ozuna made on the Braves with the bat and in the clubhouse, the team may only want him back if the DH rule is in effect. If Ozuna goes elsewhere and the Braves are still left looking for a DH, some roptions include Yoenis Cespedes, Maikel Franco, and Carlos Santana.

If the Braves decide to move on from Ozuna, either due to a bad defensive fit or another team bidding more money or more years than the team is comfortable with, the team still has Ronald Acuña Jr., Cristian Pache, and Adam Duvall ready to go in the outfield. Prospect Drew Waters is also likely to be ready at some point in 2021. That still leaves a hole at Designated Hitter however, and it seems likely that the team would like the option to spell Duvall with a left-handed bat on occasion, with Ender Inciarte likely not considered a strong enough offensive player at this point to hold the role and Nick Markakis likely not returning. There is a slew of possible free agent outfielders that could fit the bill, including Jay Bruce, Joc Pederson, and Josh Reddick as well as an indeterminate number of players that will hit free agency after being non-tendered.

Of course the best of both worlds would be the Braves to re-sign Ozuna and get a left-handed outfielder, but fans should be prepared for Ozuna not returning to Atlanta.

Priority 3: Re-Sign or Replace At Least One of Mark Melancon or Shane Greene

The Braves bullpen was  one of the best in 2020, with the team’s 2019 deadline acquisitions and off-season spending spree on the unit looking particularly far-sighted with the use of expanded rosters through the course of the season. Three to five members of that unit could go elsewhere however. Closer Mark Melancon, key set-up man Shane Greene, and swingman Josh Tomlin will be headed to free agency, while Luke Jackson and Grant Dayton seem to be a prime non-tender candidates after a shaky season and post-season respectively.

If all five leave and no one is signed, the bullpen would still likely be a solid unit. Will Smith had somewhat of a lost 2020 after being quarantined the entirety of summer camp after testing positive for the coronavirus and joining the team late; there’s no reason to think that a more typical off-season wouldn’t get him back on track. Chris Martin was outstanding all season, as was a resurgent A.J. Minter coming off an injury-plagued 2019. Lefty Tyler Matzek arrived from the independent leagues and was one of the top bullpen workhorses of the league, while veteran Darren O’Day put together a healthy year and solidly glued together middle innings, and would be welcome back even if the team elects not to pick up his $3.5 million option. Huascar Ynoa filled the long-relief/swingman roll admirably most of the season and in the post-season, while Jacob Webb returned from injury and didn’t allow an earned run in 10 regular season innings. That’s seven bullpen arms already penciled in for 2021, and that doesn’t take into consideration rookie and minor league arms that may be ready for an opportunity such as Tucker Davidson, Patrick Weigel, Jeremy Walker, Phil Pfeiffer, and Jasseel De La Cruz.

Nevertheless, it seems unlikely the Braves will want to take a significant step backwards in the bullpen arms race, especially with the coronavirus still a threat. Of Melancon and Greene, I would guess Melancon would be the more likely to re-sign with Atlanta. Not only did he seem to genuinely enjoy being on the team, but coming into his age 36 season on the heals of completing a 4-year, $62 million deal Melancon would seem to be the more inclined of the two to offer some sort of hometown discount to remain with a team that he’s comfortable with and is likely to remain in contention.

For Greene, this is his first opportunity at free agency in what will be his age 32 season and coming off a strong performance. It would behoove Greene to strike while the iron is hot. What is uncertain however is just what the market will offer right-handed middle relievers, even ones with a distinguished resume like Greene’s. If the market is flooded and teams are unwilling to spend, it’s not out of the realm that he could return to Atlanta, perhaps with one of Alex Anthopoulous’s favored one-year pillow contracts.

If the Braves decide to go in another direction, there will be dozens of relievers available. Don’t be surprised in this environment if solid veteran relievers end up taking one-year deals, or even minor league deals.

Priority 4: Sign a Veteran Starting Pitcher, or Two

The Braves one-year deal with veteran left-hander Cole Hamels fizzled thanks to injuries, but the idea of having a veteran on staff around which you can array the young starters was a solid one. Despite the awfulness of the starting rotation for most of the season, especially after the Achilles heal injury to right-hander Mike Soroka, the unit found itself in the eleventh hour thanks to the triumphant debut of Ian Anderson and dramatic late-season development from right-handers Bryse Wilson and Kyle Wright. This group did historic things in the 2020 post-season, and with newly minted ace Max Fried could form a formidable and young 2021 starting rotation.

If Soroka returns to form following his injury, the Braves could have a postseason-tested, young, cheap starting five already in house and an inviable backlist of talented young arms as understudies. Touki Toussaint wasn’t able to maintain a rotation spot in 2020 but is still has largely untapped potential. Sean Newcomb likewise failed to hold onto as starting role, but could bounce back either in the rotation or the bullpen. Then there are the true rookies like Tucker Davidson, Kyle Muller, Jasseel De La Cruz, and even 2020 first-rounder Jared Shuster who could be ready sooner rather than later.

This is why getting a veteran starter is fourth on this priority list, but make no mistake it should be on the list. No team in baseball history has ever had “enough” pitching. With the free agent market likely to be flooded with arms, the team should be able to pick up reliable veteran starter on a short contract for a much more palatable price than the $18 million contract given to Hamels in 2019. It would also behoove the team to pick up a second veteran as well, perhaps on a minor league contract with an invite to spring training, similar to the idea behind bringing Felix Hernandez into camp in 2019.

For the guaranteed contract, most fans of course will want to sign the likely 2020 NL Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer. That seems unlikely for a number of reasons, and Bauer has notably backed off his previously stated desire to work only on one-year deals to maximize his potential earnings, a sensible backpedal given the uncertain times. Bauer makes sense for too many other teams to make me believe he’ll sign with Atlanta.

The Braves will likely instead look for someone they can slot in the rotation behind the Big Three of Fried, Soroka, and Anderson, and would take a one-year deal to re-establish value. Pitchers in this category would be the likes of Jake Odorizzi, Jose Quintana, or Anthony DeSclafani. If the Braves wanted to spend a little more, they could possibly get Brett Anderson, Adam Wainwright, or Garrett Richards.

As mentioned before there’s likely to also be a lot of arbitration-eligible players that will hit the free agent market after being non-tendered. This is a group of pitchers that I would expect the Braves to look for to make minor league make-good contract to someone, and this is a signing that could take place just before or even during spring training.

 

In short, this would seem to be a likely Opening Day roster for Atlanta in 2021:

Infielders:

Freddie Freeman, with a fresh new contract extension
Ozzie Albies
Dansby Swanson
Austin Riley
Johan Camargo, or a replacement

Outfielders:

Ronald Acuña Jr.
Cristian Pache
Adam Duvall
Marcell Ozuna, or more likely, a replacement
A left-handed hitting acquisition
Ender Inciarte, unless traded or released

Catchers:

Travis d’Arnaud
William Contreras or Alex Jackson

Starting Pitchers:

Max Fried
Mike Soroka, if healthy
Ian Anderson
A veteran acquisition
Bryse Wilson or Kyle Wright or a veteran acquisition

Relief Pitchers:

A.J. Minter
Chris Martin
Tyler Matzek
Will Smith
Darren O’Day or a replacement
Huascar Ynoa
Jacob Webb
Mark Melancon or Shane Greene or a replacement