The Braves remain the most active player early in free agency, coming to terms with free agent starting pitcher Charlie Morton on yet another one-year contract, this time worth $15 million.
This represents a homecoming for the 37-year-old right-hander, who was a 3rd-round pick by Atlanta in the 2002 draft and who made his major league debut with the Braves in 2008. Morton was traded by the Braves mid-season 2009 to the Pittsburgh Pirates in a package for outfielder Nate McLouth.
Morton was a workhorse, back-end starter for seven seasons with Pittsburgh, compiling a 4.39 ERA in 142 major league starts. Morton experienced a career resurgence after signing a free agent deal with the Houston Astros, who helped Morton increase his velocity and movement on his fastballs (he throws a four-seamer, two-seamer, and cutter) and get a sharper two-plane break on his curveball. At the age of 33, Morton became one of the best starting pitchers in the American League, and in two seasons with Houston pitched to a 3.36 ERA while striking out 364 in 314 innings.
In 2019 Morton signed another two-year free agent deal, this time with the Tampa Bay Rays. That 2019 season turned out to be Morton’s best to date, and he finished the season with a 3.05 ERA and 240 strikeouts in 195 innings, which earned Morton a 3rd-place finish in Cy Young voting.
Morton was bothered by shoulder inflammation early in the 2020 season, effecting his performance and finally pushing him to the injured list in early August. Morton returned in September and was more effective down the stretch. Morton threw four starts in the playoffs for Tampa, including 10.2 shutout innings in the ALCS against the Astros.
The Breakdown
Morton has the 11th-higest K/9 percentage (10.64) and 13th-highest fWAR (13.0) over the last four seasons. If Statcast is your thing, Morton’s Barrel% of only 5% puts him in the same group as Jacob deGrom and Aaron Nola. And even in traditional stats Morton shines, with 47 wins (6th) and a 3.34 ERA (20th).
In short, if Charlie Morton was 31 instead of 37, he would probably secure something like a 4-year, $68 million deal given his performance over the last four seasons and the quality of his stuff. Morton’s average velocity on his 4-seamer is 95.6, ahead of guys like Justin Verlander and Stephen Strasburg. His two-seam comes in at an average of 86.7, allowing it to act like a change-up.
But the real star of the show here is Morton’s curveball. Since 2017, only Adam Wainwright‘s hammer gets more horizonal movement. A picture is worth a thousand words; I don’t know what the exchange rate on a .gif is, but I bet it’s super high. Anyway, here’s a good Morton curveball.
Meet your new curveball, Braves fans. pic.twitter.com/ga8NXbcXkB
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) November 24, 2020
The Big Picture
It’s no secret that the starting rotation was as big a problem in 2020 as the bullpen was in 2019, and the Braves have moved just as aggressively to address the problem as they did with the bullpen in 2019. While most teams have yet to sign any major league free agents this offseason, Atlanta has committed $26 million to two veteran major league starters in Morton and left-hander Drew Smyly. They add to an already impressive core of young arms in 2020 Cy Young candidate Max Fried, 2019 Cy Young candidate Mike Soroka, and likely 2021 Rookie of the Year candidate Ian Anderson.
This also gives Atlanta an enviable amount of pitching depth as 2020 starters Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson, both of whom made late-season strides, into 6th/7th starter territory. The Braves also still has the talented but erratic Touki Toussaint and Sean Newcomb, plus burgeoning potentials starters Tucker Davidson, Jasseel De La Cruz, and Kyle Muller all on the 40-man roster.
As a domino effect, one or some of these arms are now freed up perhaps to be part of a trade for help for other areas of the team.
Also interesting is that the Braves don’t appear to have lowered the payroll at all from pre-season 2020 levels. I estimated that the Braves had a $160 million payroll at that point last season. With Morton’s signing, the Braves payroll now is ~$110 million, depending on arbitration and non-tenders. That could give the Braves as much as $50 million remaining. Even allowing for a reserve budget for mid-season moves, that should give Atlanta GM Alex Anthopoulos plenty of room to address the Marcell Ozuna-sized hole in the line-up and bolster the bullpen.
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