Welcome to our annual look at the overall system depth at each position. While fans are waiting for the definitive word to come from manager Brian Snitker, it looks like ta long awaited changing-of-the-guard is coming to centerfield of SunTruist Park. Down on the farm, a relatively unheralded 2019 high school draft pick is starting to get… um… more heralded.
First Base | Second Base | Shortstop | Third Base | Catcher | Left Field | Right Field | Starting Pitcher | Relief Pitcher
ATLANTA BRAVES
STARTER: Cristian Pache
There are few players that have made themselves over so drastically during their run as a minor league ballplayer than Cristian Pache. While scouts saw enough of the skinny 16-year-old Dominican that the Braves ended up giving him a $1.4 million bonus, but it was based on his already impressive defensive ability and a bet that his body would fill out as he matured. That it has, and Pache has added about 30 pounds of muscle in the intervening six years, but most impressive has been the change in his batting mechanics. In his 2017 season with Rome, Pache hit the ball in to the ground at a 51.5% clip, sabotaging the good qualities he demonstrated in strike zone awareness. Pache started to add muscle that offseason and he was able to hit the first 8 home runs of his pro career in high-A and AA ball, though he was still grounding out far too much. His batting skills caught up with the improvements in his body in 2019, and he started putting the ball in the air more, leading to a career-high 12 home runs in AA and AAA. Pache’s batting was refined even more while working at the alternate training site in 2020 and he was tapped in the playoffs to start in the NLCS over the more experienced Ender Inciarte when Adam Duvall strained an oblique and could not continue. Pache acquitted himself well in the series. Not many people doubt he’s one of the top position players on the team and he would seem the overwhelming favorite to start Opening Day 2021, barring some ill-advised service time shenanigans.
Back-up: Pache’s only real competition for the centerfield role is incumbent Ender Inciarte. Inciarte won three consecutive Gold Glove awards with Atlanta from 2016-18 and batted .287/.342/.391 over that course of that time. In 2019 however while battling quadriceps and hamstring injuries, Inciarte only batted .225/.314/.343 while clearly slowing in the field as well. If fully healthy, the 30-year-old should be a strong bench player as a top-notch defensive replacement, pinch hitter, and spot starter against right-handed batters, a welcome development for Atlanta who still owes Inciarte roughly $9 million over the remaining year of his contract. That said, there seems to be no guarantee that Inciarte has a roster spot line-up and will have to demonstrate health and at least defensive soundness this spring. Atlanta has brought in a number of outfielders to compete for bench roles, with the most likely addition being Phil Ervin, formerly of the Cincinnati Reds, who can play all three outfield positions, or switch-hitter Abraham Almonte.
Upper-Level Minor Leaguers
OF Guillermo Heredia
Projected Level: AAA Gwinnett
Right after the start of camp, the Braves picked up journeyman outfield Guillermo Heredia off waivers from the New York Mets. Heredia was signed out of Cuba by the Seattle Mariners and played parts of three seasons with them before being non-tendered before the 2019 season. Heredia has bounced around Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and the Mets since then and has an aggregate .239/.316/.344 major league batting line in 1137 plate appearances. Heredia can man all three outfield positions and is still optionable, likely an attractive quality for an Atlanta team who last season was forced to bring Pache up before they wanted simply because he was the only outfielder available.
Back-up: Braves #3 prospect Drew Waters (discussed in last week’s look at left field) will no doubt see time in center field as well and can easily slide over in the case of injury or promotion. Other options here is former Oakland A Jaycob Brugman.
OF Justin Dean
Projected Level: AA Mississippi
If not for an inopportune hand injury with Rome in the middle of the 2019 season, Dean would likely have been moved up to high-A then. As it is, he seems posed to get the double-bump to AA, especially given the necessity of having a quality defensive centerfielder in that large ballpark. If you are looking for an underdog to root for, you could do worse than Dean, a 17th-round pick in 2017 out of Hickory, NC’s Lenoir-Rhyne University. Dean’s calling cards are speed and defense, and he lead the South Atlantic League in stolen bases in 2019. Despite his 5′-6″ stature, Dean also has sneaky power, though his bat plane will lead mostly to grounders and line-drives.
Back-up: Either of Mississippi’s projected corner outfielders, Trey Harris or Andrew Moritz could slide over an man centerfield as necessary, as could likely reserve Shean Michel.
Lower-Level Minor Leaguers
OF Michael Harris
Projected Level: A+ Rome
No position player prospect has more buzz right now than 2019 3rd-rounder Michael Harris. The recently-turned-20 Stockbridge, GA native was the first high school draftee to be promoted to low-A in the Braves organization in 12 seasons in 2019, so he already was on the team’s radar early. He reported to camp in 2020 filled out with a calmer swing, and was later added to the 60-man player pool so he could continue working at the team’s alternate training site. Harris then got a major league spring training invite, and has impressed Atlanta coaches. While he may eventually outgrow center field, the team seems likely to try to keep him there as long as possible. It’s also possible that the Braves may push him early to AA, but my guess is that they will want him to hit his way there starting at high-A Rome.
Back-up: 2020 draft pick Jesse Franklin could start at this level and play centerfield; in fact he could start at center and Michael Harris could play right field. I have that flip-flopped but it really could go either way. Jacob Pearson could also fill in if necessary.
OF Stephen Paolini
Projected Level: A Augusta
2019 5th-rounder Paolini didn’t have the immediate GCL success that Michael Harris had, but Paolini is no less athletic. The Connecticut native was rawer at the plate coming out of high school than Harris, but seems to have more a shot at staying in center field. Paolini was an instructional league invite and is a potential five-tool star as he gets more pro experience and coaching.
OF Drew Campbell
Projected Level: A Augusta
If Atlanta determines that Paolini may need more time in extended spring training, they could turn over centerfield to former Louisville stand-out Campbell. Campbell signed late in 2019 and only got about a month’s worth of games in before an injury knocked him out for the rest of the season. Campbell’s calling card is his hit tool, and he was a .310/.382/.428 hitter in two seasons with Louisville.
Short-Season Minor Leaguers
OF Kadon Morton
Speaking of raw talent, Morton would be on the shortlist of most athletic ballplayers in the Braves system. A three-sport star with Seguin HS, Morton took on overslot bonus to sign with Atlanta in 2019 when they drafted him with a 19th-round pick rather than go to Oklahoma. Morton is a project for Braves player development, and it remains to be seen if Morton will be able to remain in center field, but he’s the kind of player that could see sudden development.
The Braves 2019 DSL Player of the Year in 2019, Estrada hit .307/.433/.366 in his second year in the organization. Look for him to come stateside for 2021 and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the speedy centerfielder saw time in Augusta before too long.
OF/2B Geraldo Quintero
Quintero also plays second base, but he also showed out in centerfield where his plus speed works well on defense.
Centerfield Depth Chart
- Cristian Pache
- Ender Inciarte
- Phil Ervin
- Abraham Almonte
- Guillermo Heredia
- Jaycob Brugman
- Drew Waters
- Justin Dean
- Shean Michel
- Michael Harris
- Jesse Franklin
- Jacob Pearson
- Stephen Paolini
- Drew Campbell
- Kadon Morton
- Deivi Estrada
- Geraldo Quintero
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