The Atlanta Braves have signed free agent right-handed reliever Shane Green to a 1-year, $1.5 million contract
Way back at the beginning of the offseason, we identified four important items for the Braves to take care of. The first, lock up Freddie Freeman to a contact extension is still pending. The second, acquire a replacement for Marcell Ozuna was accomplished when they re-signed Marcell Ozuna. The fourth, sign a veteran starting pitcher or two, was fulfilled early when they signed Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly (results… pending).
The third item though was replacing relievers Mark Melancon and Shane Greene, who were set to become free agents. This need intensified when the Braves elected not to pick up the option on Darren O’Day‘s contract and he became a free agent, later signing with the New York Yankees. Melancon, fresh off building his dream home on the coast of Mexico, was only looking for a southern California team and signed with the San Diego Giants.
Remarkably, the Braves made no major league signings or trades to attempt to fill the right-handed gap in their bullpen other than re-upping with Josh Tomlin. Instead, they signed the likes of Carl Edwards Jr. and Nate Jones to minor league deals, picked up Victor Arano off waivers from the Phillies, and hoped that Chris Martin would hold together for a full year and that young righties like Jacob Webb, Touki Toussiant (since injured), Patrick Weigel, or Chad Sobotka (the later two since traded away) would be able to step up and fill the void.
That hasn’t really happened, but it turns out that no one else was prepared to give Shane Greene the contract he believed he was entitled to, so here in early May the team and the righty will make a belated reunion.
The Breakdown
In 2020, Shane Greene posted a 2.60 ERA in 27.2 innings pitched over 28 appearances. In the postseason he continued his good work, allowing only 1 run over 6 innings while striking out 6. Before being pro-rated due to the pandemic, he was contracted to receive $6.25 million for his 2020 season.
It’s natural for anyone, after having a good job performance, to expect a raise, and I suspect Greene was no exception going into his first free agency. Looking at peripheral statistics and metrics — and we know all teams do — gives a hint as to why no one signed him until now.
Greene had his lowest strikeout rate since 2015 last season, while allowing 44% more hard contact. This is obviously not a sustainable recipe for success, and is likely the biggest reason teams were not lining up for his services. Fortunately for Greene, he also had the lowest home run rate of his career. Greene has also historically been stingy with bases on balls and that continued in 2020.
So what changed with Greene? The biggest difference is that he started throwing the change-up far more often than any other time in his career, 13.3% of the time. Right-handers usually use change-ups to help nullify left-handed hitters, and over his career, Greene has allowed a .352 wOBA versus left-handers versus a miserly .280 wOBA against right-handed hitters.
So what happened in 2020? Not much actually. Lefties hit him for a .340 wOBA against Greene, while righties dropped to .235, and with the short sample size that was the 2020 season those drops are statistically insignificant. That doesn’t mean the increased change-up usage was a bad idea — the pitch did work well for him. It simply didn’t alter his career splits issue.
That said, it’s important to remember this point: the entirety of the 2020 season essentially was a small sample. That goes for the traditional metrics like ERA as well as the advanced metrics. Looking at the overall scope of his career and predicting how he’s likely to perform in 2021 it may not be prudent to have given him a raise like he no doubt wanted or expected. At the same time, there’s nothing in his profile that suggests a significant drop in performance at age 32 beyond anything usual.
The Big Picture
The reason for this signing doesn’t require some deep analysis. The Braves bullpen has allowed an MLB-worst .352 wOBA versus right-handed hitters so far this season. Patchwork solutions like Carl Edwards Jr., Edgar Santana, Jacob Webb, and Nate Jones haven’t worked and the team simply can’t expect Luke Jackson‘s .214 mark against right-handers to continue.
As it so happens, Shane Greene’s best feature is getting right-handed hitters out, he was available, and apparently the price of acquiring him came down enough to allow the team to go get him. Sometimes big problems have obvious solutions.
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