Welcome to the Braves Farm Report, where we will take a look at the Braves farm system and look at trends and players that seem interesting, and give first hand accounts of what we’re seeing down on the farm.
Also be sure to check out the OFR Farm Report Podcast where we discuss these events and give opinions and commentary.
Mailbag Q&A
Q: With Acuña now out, are we sellers? – N. Lyle
A: This was the last question I got in the mailbag, but it’s the question everyone is asking now so it goes to the top of the pile.
I don’t think so, at least not in a “sell anything not nailed down” way. Before the Acuña injury the team was showing signs of life, winning 12 of their last 20. More importantly, no other team in the division has shown any indication of seizing the moment either. I doubt the front office is ready to ditch the season completely.
That said, they’ll be practical. If the team is listless after the break, I can see them start to offload some short-term players for players that could help them in both 2021 and 2022.
Q: Realistically what are the chances of the Braves getting Aaron Judge, and are the Yankees willing to trade him? – M. Barham
A: The answer to that second question informs the first. I don’t think there’s a chance, unless absolutely blown away by an offer, that the Yankees unload Judge before the trading deadline. If they make the decision to sell Judge, it’s far more likely to happen in the offseason when there will be more potential bidders and 2021 draft players will become eligible to be part of trades.
Q: Which Cubs are at the top of our deadline shopping list? – M. Grinnan
A: None? I don’t see Atlanta spending a lot of capital to acquire short-term assets. Left-hander Andrew Chafin would probably be at the top of the list, but he’s going to draw a lot of interest. Maybe righty Ryan Tepera if they are looking for a quick bullpen fix.
Sorry, I know those aren’t the sexy names.
Q: How long before the sacrifice bunt is banned from baseball? If the DH was still around would the Braves be in first? Any update on Ynoa? – J. Boggs
A: The sacrifice should never be banned because I love other teams giving up outs.
I doubt the DH would improve Atlanta’s chances now. Ozuna would no doubt have been the DH, so that would just be another hole in the line-up.
The Athletic’s David O’Brien reported yesterday that Ynoa will start throwing off the mound next week. I would guess late August is a realistic time for him to return to the team.
Q: When a player is injured, does the team have to endure the entirety of the financial picture, or is there some sort of financial relief from something like worker’s comp or insurance? – M. Peterson
A: OFR founder and financial genius Chris Jervis weighed in with an answer to this so I will bow to his knowledge:
Since 2003, pursuant to the CBA, players are covered by worker’s comp for work related injuries. It works slightly differently than other jobs, because the CBA also says injured players still get paid. So, the ‘replacement pay’ or disability pay from WC isn’t paid (the player just continues getting paid as if nothing happened), and the team covers the costs of the injury and care. A player can seek additional benefits under WC for long term benefits as a it relates to a career ending work injury.
Some large FA contracts and extensions are insured for the cost of the contract, but some guys can’t get insured. Brandon Webb passed a physical in 2009 with ARI during extension negotiations, but no insurer would cover his deal. He ended up not extending, which some fans criticized as the team not wanting to spend money. But perhaps they didn’t want to take on the risk of his deal, given his history, without a way to recoup something. There are other things involved than just the money.
The insurance has gotten incredibly expensive, so it isn’t on every contract. From what I have read, most teams have 3-5 insured contracts at most, and those are typically on larger multi-year deals. The insurance companies don’t want to write a policy with a rate based on a 24 year old prime condition athlete making $8M a year, only to have it be paid out on an aging 31 year old with bad knees making $20M. Insurers will typically insure 2-3 years at a time, and then re-rate for another 2-3 year period as the player ages.
If a policy is purchased, it is almost never for the full amount. Most policies I have seen discussed are for 40% to 60% of the contract value, with rare ones getting up to 80%. Premiums used to run around 10% on average of the deal value, but have increased. So when you look at paying potentially 25% of a deal’s value on a ‘what if’, and are only able to recoup 60% of the deal, are you really recouping enough in the event of injury to justify getting coverage on everyone?
Q: Which Braves prospects will we see called up in September, if any? I am mainly referring to the guys who aren’t on the 24/7 shuttle bus between Gwinnett and Atlanta, so guys not named Wright, Wilson, Webb, Newcomb. Anyone surprising we may see called up? – C. Hayes
A: A lot will depend on the circumstances of the team. If they are still in the race, I wouldn’t expect any September call-ups other than a third catcher and another reliever or three. With the AAA season now being extended into October, that would give Atlanta the opportunity also to move some guys from AA to AAA toward the end of the season for some extra work.
If Atlanta is out of the race, I could definitely see them adding Drew Waters to the roster and sticking him in left field for the remainder to give him a taste of major league pitching. He will need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason anyway. I would expect Cristian Pache to be up before September. I could also see right-hander Jasseel De La Cruz used in some capacity. Here’s my shot in the dark on this: current Mississippi reliever Brooks Wilson.
FCL BRAVES:
After a suspended game and a postponement early in the week thanks to Tropical Storm Elsa, the FLC Braves managed to reel off three fully-realized games to end the week, going 2-1 in that span.
For the second week the Braves got good production from their outfield. Ethan Workinger hit his first professional homer and knocked in 5 runs this week, while Brandol Mezquita and Kadon Morton continued their hot starts. The Braves have also gotten good offense from the catcher position, with Cesar Rodriguez, Gianfranco Pena, Kelvin Pena, and Antonio Barranca collectively going 6-for-18 and a homer from Rodriguez. Outfielder Travis Demeritte made a rehab appearance on Saturday, slamming a home run in his only at-bat.
Right-hander Rolddy Munoz made his season debut this week, appearing in two games (one start) and striking out 8 batters in six combined innings, giving up only a hit and a run. Right-hander Rainiery Rodriguez had his second solid start, this time going 5 scoreless innings to get the rare FCL starter win.
AUGUSTA:
The GreenJackets won their second series in a row and third of the season, taking four of six games from the Myrtle Beach Pelicans. Despite that, they fell another game behind the surging first-place Charleston RiverDogs, now with a commanding lead in the Low-A East/South Division standings. They did gain a game on the 2nd place Columbia Fireflies, and are now only 2.5 games out of second.
Five Jackets homered this week, but the offense was paced by infielder Cade Bunnell who went 10-for-25 with a homer, 5 doubles, 2 stolen bases, and 6 runs scored out of the lead-off spot. Infielder Braulio Vasquez got on base 7 times this week which was enough for him to steal 5 bases and put him in a tie for the low-A lead with 32. 1B Landon Stephens his a mammoth homer in Augusta’s 11-0 win on Sunday, and Stephen Paolini, Bryson Horne, and Willie Carter all homered this week as well.
Right-hander Tanner Gordon continued his impressive string of starts, getting the Tuesday and Sunday nods and pitching a combined 13 innings and allowing only one earned run, striking out 11 and walking only 1. Since joining the Augusta rotation on June 11, Gordon has a 1.95 ERA in 6 starts, striking out 33 in 32.1 innings and allowing a stingy .145/.195/.200 batting line against him. Joey Estes had yet another quality start, pitching 7 scoreless and allowing only 3 baserunners while striking out 7. Since the start of June, he’s now averaging over 5 innings a start, and he now looks to have a pitch count of 90. One the flipside, right-hander Jared Johnson had his shortest start of the season, only getting two outs before leaving his start after allowing 4 runs on a home run and 4 walks. Left-hander Lisandro Santos had a good week in relief, appearing in two games and giving his team 4.1 scoreless innings.
ROME:
Due to weather postponements in June, Rome and Bowling Green matched up for 8 games in 6 days, playing two doubleheaders. Bowling Green got the best of this, taking 5 of 8 and extending their division lead to 7 games over 3rd-place Rome. The R-Braves will try to make up ground this week at home against Greensboro.
Right-hander Darius Vines had his best start since joining the Rome rotation at the end of June, only allowing 1 earned run in 5.1 innings and striking out 5 in a 2-1 loss on Wednesday. Reliever Coleman Huntley was pressed into an emergency start in a Thursday doubleheader and responded with 5 innings of 1-run, 1-hit ball, throwing only 56 pitches in the process. Right-hander Alan Rangel had two starts this week, allowing 2 runs in each in 6 and 5.1 innings respectively. Left-hander Mitch Stallings however got beat up, giving up 10 hits and 6 runs in 4.1 innings in a start. AJ Puckett, moved from Mississippi back to Rome, didn’t respond well and surrendered 7 runs and 10 hits in 3.1 innings.
The offense only scored 24 runs in the 8 games. Right fielder Jesse Franklin continued his power surge however, slamming 3 home runs this week. Those and a double however accounted for all 4 hits he had this week. First baseman Bryce Ball also homered this week and drew 6 walks to give him a .455 OBP on the week, hopefully a sign that he is about to emerge from his slump. The catcher position was productive for Rome, with Logan Brown hitting .304 with a home run, and back-up Rusber Estrada going 2-for-5 with a home run of his own. Outfielder Michael Harris only appeared in 4 games this week before heading out to participate in the Futures Game, going 1-for-13 on the week.
MISSISSIPPI:
The Mississippi Braves returned home this week for a first-place showdown with the Pensacola Blue Wahoos. They won the first five games of the series before dropping the finale on Sunday and now have a solid three-game lead in the Double-A South South Division with a record of 37-23. They now take to the road for a long trip to Kodak, TN to take on the Tennessee Smokies.
The M-Braves offense was led this week by 1B-DH and OFR Position Player of the Week Drew Lugbauer, who hit an even .500 (7-for-14) with two doubles, a home run, and six walks, contributing to a .650 OBP and an .857 SLG for the week. In true Lugbauer fashion, six of the seven outs he recorded during the week were by strikeout. “Slugbauer” now ranks seventh in the league in batting average (.295), second in OBP (.411), and second in OPS (.922). Outfielder Trey Harris continued his improvement with three multi-hit games and a .333/.391/.524 week while fellow outfielder Justin Dean was 6-for-18 with four walks and an HBP. Dean now ranks seventh in the league with a .371 OBP. Shortstop Braden Shewmake continued his roll with a 6-for-19 week and catcher Shea Langeliers hit a home run but did not contribute much else during a 3-for-19 week. Outfielder Jefrey Ramos had an exceptional week in going 6-for-15 with a double, triple, and a home run with six RBI.
The highlight of the starting pitching was Bryce Elder’s outing on Saturday night where he tossed seven no-hit innings to combine with Daysbel Hernandez on a 6-0 no-hit victory. Elder had his issues as he walked four, threw fewer than half his pitches for strikes, and needed three double plays, but all those factors combined to get the job done and earn OFR Pitcher of the Week. Victor Vodnik returned from the injured list to pitch three solid innings, giving up just a home run and walking no one before reaching his pitch limit. Spencer Strider had two starts during the week that could not have been more different: on Tuesday, he struck out eleven in just 5.1 innings while giving up only one run. On Sunday, however, Strider never found the strike zone as he walked five straight hitters while only retiring two hitters before being removed from the game. Kurt Hoekstra let all the inherited runners score to saddle Strider with five earned runs.
The M-Braves bullpen had several solid contributors during the week: Will Latcham tossed three scoreless innings over two outings, Matt Withrow allowed no earned runs over 3.1 innings, Brandon White did not give up any runs or hits in his two-inning appearance, and the afore-mentioned Daysbel Hernandez struck out four in two innings to wrap up Saturday’s combined no-hitter.
GWINNETT:
The Gwinnett Stripers continued their middling ways this week as they went 3-4 at home against the Nashville Sounds. They lost more ground this week and are now 15 games back of first in the Triple-A East Southeast Division with a record of 26-34. They now hit the road to face the team just ahead of them in the standings, the Charlotte Knights.
Gwinnett’s offense had a lot of hit-and-miss in it this week as they scored zero or one runs in three games and at least five in their other four contests. Outfielders Drew Waters and Cristian Pache put together solid weeks as both seem to have moved past their injuries. Waters was 8-for-20 with five extra-base hits and only three strikeouts (.400/.429/.800) before leaving the team to play in the Futures Game in Denver while Pache had four straight multi-hit games during a .333/.379/.444 week. Catcher Alex Jackson had three multi-hit games in the four times he played this week while 2B Jason Kipnis had three multi-hit games in his five outings. Johan Camargo was 6-for-22 with three doubles and a home run before being recalled to Atlanta to replace the injured Ronald Acuna.
Gwinnett’s starting rotation was better this week as Nolan Kingham continued his adjustment to Triple-A with one rough start (4 IP, 4 ER) and one that showed improvement (5 IP, 3 ER). Kyle Muller took his temporary assignment to Gwinnett in stride with a six-inning, two-run outing where he struck out eleven and walked no one. The highlight of the week, though, was a doubleheader in which Touki Toussaint dominated game one and Kyle Wright was even better in game two. Touki tossed six shutout innings and allowed just three baserunners while striking out eleven while Wright pitched a complete-game seven-inning, one-hit shutout. Bryse Wilson had a tough start, giving up five runs in five innings of work.
The Gwinnett relief corps had its issues this week as nobody recorded multiple scoreless outings. However, Jasseel De La Cruz tossed three scoreless and hitless innings while piggybacking Jose Rodriguez’s start. Sean Newcomb had one rough outing (1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 HR, 2 WP) and one perfect appearance (1 IP, 2 K). Jay Flaa had a rough outing (0.1 IP, 2 H, 4 ER, 2 BB) while Ty Tice fared even worse with two outings totaling 2 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 0 K.
POSITION PLAYER of the WEEK:
PITCHER of the WEEK:
Transaction Round-Up
- 7/7/2021: C Jonathan Lucroy selected from AAA Gwinnett by Atlanta; C William Contreras optioned to AAA Gwinnett, LHP Grant Dayton moved from 7-day to 60-day injured list
Lucroy wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire at Gwinnett, hitting .220/.351/.330 in 31 games with the Stripers, so this was more about getting Contreras more development. While it was accepted that Contreras wasn’t a finished product when he was brought up in the wake of the near-simultaneous injuries to Opening Day catchers Travis d’Arnaud and Alex Jackson, it was hoped that he was close enough that he could continue his development at the major league level while supplying better offense than the other options of the time.
After a strong start however, Contreras only hit .173/.225/.280 with 2 home runs since June 1, not nearly enough offense to offset below average blocking and pitch framing. Contreras is still a strong talent and after further refinement should make a good major league catcher.
- 7/7/2021: RHP Trevor Kelley activated from 7-day injured list for AAA Gwinnett
- 7/8/2021: RHP Peyton Williams activated from the 7-day injured list for A Augusta
- 7/9/2021: RHP Brett Burgess transferred from the 7-day to the 60-day injured list for A Augusta
Well, good news and bad news here obviously. The hard-throwing Williams comes back to Augusta after a two month stint on the IL. On the flipside, Burgess’s undisclosed injury would appear to knock him out for the rest of the season
- 7/9/2021: RHP Victor Vodnick activated from the 7-day injured list for Mississippi; RHP AJ Puckett assigned to A+ Rome from AA Mississippi
Vodnik returned after 11 days on the injured list. Puckett was somewhat of a surprise demotion considering he had pitched to a 3.15 ERA in 8 starts from Mississippi. This may be a temporary move to give Rome reinforcements in their 8-games-in-6-days series.
- 7/9/2021: LHP Mitch Horacek assigned to A+ Rome from AAA Gwinnett
The 29-year-old veteran lefty had been off-and-on the Stripers developmental list all season. Again, this move gave Rome some reinforcement in the face of having to play 8 games in 6 days and gave Horacek more opportunities to pitch.
- 7/9/2021: OF Michael Harris II placed on the temporarily inactive list for A+ Rome; RHP Luis Mora activated from the developmental list
Harris left for the Futures Game. Mora has been on and off the developmental list all season.
- 7/10/2021: RHP Jake McSteen assigned to A+ Rome from A Augusta
More pitching reinforcements. After an initial Rome assignment, McSteen settled into the Augusta rotation and pitched well.
- 7/10/2021: LHP Chris Nunn released by AA Mississippi
Nunn was a non-roster spring invite in 2020, but elected free agency after he didn’t make the team. The Braves brought him back in May, but the hard-throwing lefty hasn’t been able to conquer his control issues, giving up 12 walks and 8 runs in 17 innings with the M-Braves.
- 7/11/2021: OF Ronald Acuna Jr. placed on the 60-day IL by Atlanta; IF Johan Camargo recalled from AAA Gwinnett
And with one awkward twist while attempting to catch a fly ball, one of the great talents in the game is out for the season with a complete ACL tear. Needless the say, the Atlanta Braves have their work cut out for them trying to get back into contention in the NL East. Everyone here at Outfield Fly Rule wish nothing but a successful recovery for Ronnie.
Your Moment of Zen
.@bryce_elder13 and Daysbel Hernádez have done it!! They combine for a 🚨NO HITTER🚨to give the M-Braves their 6th straight win!!! 😤😤 pic.twitter.com/xEBWEPvzOt
— Mississippi Braves (@mbraves) July 11, 2021
Leave a Reply