Welcome to the Braves Farm Report, where we will take a look at the Braves farm system and look at trends and players that seem interesting, and give first hand accounts of what we’re seeing down on the farm.
Check out the OFR Farm Report later this week for our trade deadline reactions.
Mailbag Q&A
Q: How much (if any) restrictions do we have remaining from the [John Coppellela scandal] punishments?
A: All MLB sanctions have expired. This year’s international signing class was unconstrained by penalties and the Braves signed a number of players, lead by shortstop Diego Benitez and outfielder Douglas Glod, to significant bonuses.
Q: How do you think the Braves will approach the closer position this off-season?
A: I would not be surprised to see the Braves attempt to re-sign Kenley Jansen to another one-year deal. The Braves could also try to snipe Mets closer Edwin Diaz away, or try for a reunion with Braves all-time saves leader Craig Kimbrel. It feels like the second-round selection of former Auburn closer Blake Burkhalter may be an attempt to develop a more cost-effective and long-term solution. If Kirby Yates shows that he’s all-the-way back he could simply step into the role as well.
Q: If Dansby Swanson walks, how do you see the Braves replacing him?
A: With prospect Braden Shewmake struggling most of the season at Gwinnett and Vaughn Grissom likely at least another 8 months away from being ready for the majors, I expect the Braves to be active in free agency or the trade market. If I was putting money on it, I would guess a Swanson reunion, but that’s what I thought about Freddie Freeman this time last year too. If Swanson does walk, I’d expect Atlanta to be in the Tim Anderson, Trea Turner, and Carlos Correa markets (assuming Correa opts out of his deal with the Twins). The Braves should be flush with cash with the team likely blowing past the Truist Park record for attendance this season.
Q: What is holding Kyle Muller back?
A: Opportunity and a broken bone in his non-throwing hand. Two months ago I would have also mentioned “command”, but only giving up 19 walks in his last 75 innings at Gwinnett while allowing only a .225 batting average indicates he may have finally found the right balance between aggressiveness and control that had been alluding him. With trainers working on a device that would allow him to field play with the break, the last thing is opportunity. While many fans may be ready to swap out Ian Anderson for Muller, the team clearly is not ready to give up on Anderson, a rookie of the year candidate in both 2020 and 2021. Muller is a great back-up plan in case of injury, but he’s also one of the best remaining prospects, so opportunity for Muller could be clarified in the next 24 hours.
Q. The Braves have ended up waiting too long on some of their prospects the last couple of years and watched a few die on the vine. Touki Toussaint and Drew Waters are obvious examples recently. Do you think this will push management to be a little more liberal about their approach towards moving prospects? Should it?
A: I hope not, because I believe Alex Anthopoulos’s approach has been pretty much spot-on. Development is simply not an exact science, no matter how well you scout, train, and run your analytics department. The best way to make sure you have enough players in your pipeline is to keep the pipeline stocked. It may be “obvious” in hindsight that Toussaint should have been traded at the height of his value after the 2018 season, but at the time he was looking like a near-future core member of the pitching staff. Kyle Wright was “obviously” the player to be traded then, given he’s a year older than Toussaint… but then where would the team be today? Even with Toussaint now pitching for the Los Angeles Angels, it would surprise me if he never developed into a reliable major league pitcher.
Trading your farm system out for short-term gain is exactly how teams get in the position of needing to rebuild in the first place, and I for one don’t want to do that again for a long time. Preferably never again.
Q. Joey Gallo for Marcell Ozuna. Who says no?
A: The Yankees don’t even bother saying no, they just hang up the phone.
Q: What are the most tradable players in the farm system to get big league help at the deadline?
A: Anyone, there’s no such thing as an untradable minor leaguer. The players with the most value is likely shortstop Vaughn Grissom, who recently moved into MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects in baseball. That does NOT necessarily mean Grissom will be traded at the deadline as obviously he has value to Atlanta too.
But the Braves do not have obvious future major league stars in their farm system right now in the same way they did as during the rebuild.
Q: Do you see any potential match ups with other clubs who are sellers?
A: It depends on who you want to get. The Luis Castillo trade between the Reds and Mariners show that Atlanta is unlikely to play in the top-end starting pitching market as they would not have been able to come close to matching the Mariners prospect package unless they were willing to trade a young major leaguer like Michael Harris or Spencer Strider, at which point the immediate positive effect of the trade would be questionable. If the Braves are only working to improve around the edges of the roster — middle of the bullpen, platoon left fielder, maybe a move for another DH or a sixth starter — then the Braves match-up with pretty much anyone.
Weekly Round-Up
COMPLEX LEAGUES:
Coming into this week 17-year-old DSL Braves outfielder Maximo Maria was hitting .187/.330/.280 with 1 home run in 91 plate appearances. He boosted those numbers by going 5-for-11 last week with a double, 3 homers, 5 RBI, and 6 runs scored. Outfielder Douglas Glod also had a mini-power burst, socking 2 bambinazos while getting on at .429 OBP clip.
Righty Didier Fuentes had his July 21 start suspended after getting one out in the first, but the game resumed on July 27, giving him enough time to continue the game where he left out. He ended up allowing 1 run in four innings stretched over six days.
In the FCL, the big news will be the arrival of 2022 draft selections, undrafted free agents, and top 2021 international amateur signing Ambioris Tavarez after getting thorasic outlet surgery on his non-throwing shoulder. Many were in the line-up today, but last week it was outfielders Ethan Workinger (6-for-20, 2 doubles, 2 home runs, stolen base) and Jair Casanova (6-for-18, double, triple) handling the lumber.
On the pitching side, lefty Kris Anglin had a nice 5-inning, 1-hit, no run outing in his quest to return to Augusta. Righty Rolando Gutierrez made the move over from the DSL and had a solid first stateside debut. He relieved last Tuesday for a scoreless inning then gave up one run in 3 innings in a start on Friday. Rehabbing right-hander Jasseel De La Cruz has allowed 4 earned runs over his last two outings and now has a 7.20 FCL ERA.
AUGUSTA:
Augusta hosted first-half division winner Myrtle Beach last week and only won 2 of 6. Augusta is now 10-18 on the half, in fifth place and 7 games back of Kannapolis. Augusta starts their northern swing on Tuesday, facing the Delmarva Shore Birds for six games before stopping through Fredericksburg for six.
Augusta scored at least 4 runs in five of the six games, the offense paced by outfielder Brandon Parker, who has clearly found another gear in the last six weeks. Parker went 7-for-19 with 2 homers last week and even stole a base. Since June 14, Parker has hit .314/.441/.569 with 7 home runs in 31 games. Augusta also got strong production from the catcher spot, with Adam Zebrowski going 4-for-13 with a homer and Victor de Hoyos getting a 2-for-7 week with a homer himself.
The starting pitching had a tough go of it however. Series bookend starter Samuel Strickland started the week with a win, giving up only 1 run in 5 innings while scattering 4 baserunners, but got lit up on Sunday, leaving after only two innings and giving up 6 runs. The best effort otherwise was from right-hander Jorge Bautista, recently promoted from the FCL, who allowed 3 runs (2 earned) in five innings while striking out 5. AJ Smith-Shawver continued to rack up the Ks, downing 7 Pelicans, but ended up giving up 4 runs on 6 hits in 5 innings. The bullpen was likewise hit hard though lefty Alex Segal pitched 3.1 scoreless innings over two appearances, only allowing 1 hit and striking out 5. Since returning from his rehab assignment with the FCL Braves, Segal has only allowed a .188/.278/.250 line against him and the 24-year-old could see a bump up to Rome as the 2022 college pitching draftees start to matriculate up to Augusta.
ROME:
Rome stumbled in Hickory this week, winning only 2 of 6 and coming back home this week with a slim half-game lead over second-place Bowling Green atop the SAL South Division standings. The Braves will host Greenville this week.
Righty Roddery Munoz was the pitching star of the week for Rome has he fired 6 shut-out innings while striking out 12 batters against only 1 walk in Rome’s 5-3 win on Friday. J.J. Niekro had two tough starts to bookend the series, allowing 4 runs in 5 innings on Tuesday and then 6 runs in 4 innings on Sunday as he continues to adjust to high-A hitters. Lefty Luis De Avila struck out 10 Crawdads in 6 innings on Thursday, but allowed 3 runs (2 earned) as Hickory stymied the Braves offense and won 6-1. Reliever Dylan Spain got a spot start this week and it probably didn’t go the way he imagined it as he allowed 7 runs (4 earned) and only retired two batters.
Right-handers Jose Montilla, Malcolm Van Buren, and Isrrael De La Cruz had nice weeks out of the ‘pen. The trio only allowed 1 unearned run between them with each getting two appearances and a combined 9 innings.
First baseman Bryson Horne continued his recent hot streak, going 8-for-23 with 8 home runs and stealing 2 bases. Shortstop Cal Conley also stayed hot, going 9-for29 with 2 homers and 2 swipes himself. Catcher Tyler Tolve was on base at a .500 clip on the basis of 5 hits and 4 walks in 18 plate appearances.
MISSISSIPPI:
The Mississippi Braves struggled in their series in Pensacola against the Blue Wahoos this week, primarily due to two subpar starts from Dylan Dodd and an ineffective bullpen. After dropping four out of six, the M-Braves (17-10) are still in first place in the Southern League South Division, but their lead has been reduced to 1 ½ games over Montgomery. The M-Braves now return home to face the Biloxi Shuckers.
In four of the six Mississippi starts this week, the starting pitcher only gave up one run…the other two were started by Dylan Dodd. Dodd got the bookend starts this week, he gave up four runs and nine runs over 4.2 innings on Tuesday and five runs (four earned) in four innings on Sunday, including two home runs. On Wednesday, Tanner Gordon scattered eight baserunners but gave up just the one run. On Thursday, Allan Winans made his Mississippi debut and gave up just one hit and one walk over four innings. On Friday, OFR Pitcher of the Week Darius Vines had another strong start, giving up just the one run over six innings, bringing his July numbers a 1.17 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over five starts. Alan Rangel finished up the run of single-run starts on Saturday by striking out seven on Saturday.
Odalvi Javier’s streak of eighteen outings without allowing an earned run ended on Tuesday as he took the loss in giving up two runs over 1.1 innings. Lisandro Santos had two more scoreless outings and still has not allowed a run in five appearances since being called up from Rome. Justin Yeager had two scoreless appearances along with a save during the week.
Shortstop Vaughn Grissom, who also played one game at second base during the week, was 10-for-24 during the series with two doubles and a home run (.417/.481/.625). Outfielder Justyn-Henry Malloy had four multi-hit games during a .360/.407/.520 week, and outfielder Justin Dean had a game to remember on Saturday with two doubles, a stolen base, and an outfield assist during a .304/.407/.522 week in which he drove in seven runs.
GWINNETT:
The Gwinnett Stripers returned home this week for a series against the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. After dropping the first four games of the series, the Stripers won the final two games of the weekend. Gwinnett’s record now stands at 48-51, twelve games out of first place in a tie for sixth in the International League West Division. The Stripers now head to Charlotte to take on the Knights.
Gwinnett received several good efforts from their starting pitchers this week, particular from Freddy Tarnok, who gave up a solo home run to the first batter of the game and then allowed just one more baserunner for the next six innings as he struck out nine. Bryce Elder put up a solid start on Saturday as he gave up two runs over six innings while striking out eight and scattering just six baserunners. Jared Shuster’s first Triple-A start went fairly well, he gave up three runs (two earned) over five innings. Tucker Davidson got two starts during the week and neither went well as he gave up a total of seven runs over ten innings, including three home runs.
Kirby Yates’ rehab assignment was moved from Mississippi to Gwinnett this week and he got to pitch twice: he pitched a scoreless inning in his first outing, giving up just a hit in that one, but in his second effort, he gave up a hit, walk, and HBP over 1.1 innings. William Woods made his return from an ankle injury this week and pitched a scoreless inning, giving up just a basehit while striking out one. Huascar Ynoa pitched in relief on Sunday, giving up a run over two innings.
The Gwinnett offense did not score more than three runs in any of their first four games before exploding for sixteen runs over the final two contests. Shortstop Braden Shewmake played in just three games this week, not playing after Thursday, and he was 2-for-12 with five strikeouts and two errors. C-DH Ryan Casteel had an impressive week offensively, he was 6-for-18 with a double, three home runs, six walks, and eight RBI (.333/.500/.889), enough to secure OFR Position Player of the Week. Outfielder Preston Tucker also had a good series in going 7-for-19 with a double and two home runs (.368/.455/.737).
POSITION PLAYER of the WEEK:
PITCHER of the WEEK:
Transaction Round-Up
- 7/22/2022: LHP Rolando Gutierrez assigned to FCL Braves from DSL Braves
The DSL Braves have had the best starting pitching in the DSL this season, and Gutierrez was a big reason why, pitching to a 1.38 ERA in 7 appearances (6 starts) while allowing only a .158/.208/.190 battling line. A member of the 2022 signing class, Guitierrez is a little bit older than most of his DSL teammates at the old age of 20 years old, so an aggressive move to the States is probably warranted.
- 7/26/2022: RHP Allan Winans activated from 7-day injured list for AAA Gwinnett; assigned to AA Mississippi
Winans was a minor league free agent pick up this year. A reliever most of his career to date, the Braves seem to want him to become a starter, a role he filled for the start of the season in Gwinnett. His first two starts went well — 2 earned in 8 innings combined — but he gave up 6 runs in 2.1 innings in his first start before he left the game with injury. Three months later he started his rehab stint with the FCL, and now he goes to Mississippi to backfill Jared Shuster in the Braves rotation.
- 7/26/2022: LHP Jared Shuster and IF Yariel Gonzalez assigned to AAA Gwinnett from AA Mississippi
Shuster has been one of the Southern League’s top pitchers and his selection to the Futures Game was well-deserved. Triple-A will represent a good challenge for him as he will continue to try to show that he can get advanced hitters out despite low-90s velocity thanks to good command and an elite change-up and near-elite curveball.
Gonzalez continues to get opportunities in the Braves system after signing as minor league free agent out of the Cardinals system. He was a spring training invite and was initially assigned to Gwinnett out of spring training. He dropped down to Mississippi after initially only hitting .122/.156/.146 in 12 games. Those numbers gradually improved with Mississippi, and since June 15 he has hit .297/.374/.446. His defensive versatility will always allow him to get his foot in the door, and it appears the Braves are very interested to see if he can eventually fill an Ehire Adrianza-type role in the majors.
- 7/26/2022: 1B Mahki Backstrom activated from 7-day injured list for A Augusta
It’s been a tough year for Backstrom, who is only hitting .184/.329/.378 in his full-season debut in between two IL stints and a suspension for his participation in an on-field brawl with the Columbia Fireflies. Backstrom’s naturally smooth left-handed swing and his power potential leave many evaluators drooling, but a strong finish to the season would help him maintain his standing on the depth chart, especially as the team selected two first basemen in the 2002 draft.
- 7/27/2022: RHP Kirby Yates assigned to AAA Gwinnett on rehab assignment
Yates gave up his first run in his rehab work on Saturday, but otherwise he seems to be healthy and throwing the ball well. Barring unforeseen setbacks, it would not be a surprise to see Yates activated by the end of this week.
- 7/29/2022: 2B Taylor Motter signed to a minor league free agent; assigned to AAA Gwinnett
Motter is a 32-year-old journeyman infielder who has made it to the majors with Tampa Bay, Seattle, Minnesota, Colorado, Boston, and most recently with Cincinnati who selected him as a COVID fill-in, then released him. Atlanta swooped in with a contract offer and he will presumably start most of the rest of the games in Gwinnett at second base. He homered in his first at-bat for the Stripers.
- 7/30/2022: RHP William Woods activated from the 7-day injured list for AAA Gwinnett
Woods impressed with two scoreless outings during a brief early-season call-up with Atlanta. Unfortunately in his first appearance back with Gwinnett after being optioned he injured his foot, which kept him out of action for over two months. Woods has a live arm but has had a tough time staying on the mound the last two seasons. If he’s right, he’s a potential weapon for the Braves down the stretch.
- 7/30/2022: IF Jose Dilone assigned to A+ Rome from FCL Braves
The 21-year-old Dilone was part of the 2018 international class for Atlanta and he has a modest .231/.348/.287 batting line after three seasons of complex league ball. Dilone was likely moved out to make room for the slew of recently drafted infielders (see below) while also filling a role for Rome who was short on the bench.
- 7/30/2022: Signed draft picks RHPs Owen Murphy, J.R. Ritchie, Adam Maier, Jason Franks, Blake Burkhalter, Ian Mejia, William Silva, Seth Keller, Cedric De Grandpre, and Landon Harper; OFs Noah Williams, Kevin Kilpatrick Jr., and Christian Jackson; Cs Drake Baldwin and Andrew Keck; and IFs Ignacio Alvarez, Cory Acton, David McCabe, E.J. Exposito, Justin Janas, and Keshawn Ogans to contracts.
The Braves made it official, announcing that all 22 of the 2022 draft class signed contracts. A much-needed infusion of talent to the farm system, All that remains to be seen is where they are assigned to play for the last six weeks of the minor league season.
- 7/30/2022: Signed LHP Hayden Harris, C Harry Owen, C Nick Clarno, OF Bryson Worrell, and RHP Hunter Riggins to minor league contracts
In addition to the draft picks, the Braves added five non-drafted amateur signings.
- 8/1/2022: Assigned OFs Noah Williams, Kevin Kilpatrick Jr., Bryson Worrell, and Christian Jackson; Cs Andrew Keck and Nick Clarno; and IFs Cory Acton, Ignacio Alvarez, E.J. Exposito, Justin Janas, and Kewshawn Ogans to the FCL Braves
Just before press time the FCL Braves updated their roster, with many of the players getting into game action on Monday. Presumably the position players not assigned to the FCL will make the debuts with Augusta.
- 8/1/2022: Traded OF Trey Harris to the Washington Nationals for IF Ehire Adrianza; designated 2B Robinson Canó for assignment
Canó was asked to be the left-hand side of a second base platoon with Orlando Arcia, but only went 1-for-19 in 9 games with what looked like a very slow bat. Combined with lackluster defensive play as well and Arcia was starting against right-handers by this weekend.
Adrianza is a known commodity for Atlanta as a part of the bench last season, playing solid defense at all three infield skill positions while holding his own with a .247/.327/.401 line last season. He will take over the big side of the 2nd base platoon until Ozzie Albies returns.
Harris has been a great story after being taken in the 32nd round of the 2018 draft from Missouri. A clubhouse leader and a local product from McEachern High School in Powder Springs, GA, Harris hit lower-level pitching very well despite a very aggressive approach at the plate. Pitchers at the AA level however were able to take advantage of that approach however and he remained at that level from late 2019 through the present, hitting a pedestrian .252/.323/.358 with 143 strikeouts in 778 plate appearances as a AA minor leaguer. This year he has been relegated to part-time player, acting as the fourth outfielder and part-time DH.
That said, there will seldom be more popular players with minor league fans than Trey Harris. Here’s hoping he’ll keep advancing his career with his new organization.
Your Moment of Zen
Some players who come through make a bigger impact on a club than you see between the lines. @JustCallMe_Duce was one of those players that did both. Thank you for your impact in Mississippi! ✌️ pic.twitter.com/VgVMPeJl0y
— Mississippi Braves (@mbraves) August 1, 2022
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