Welcome to the Braves Farm Report, where we will take a look at the Braves farm system and look at trends and players that seem interesting, and give first hand accounts of what we’re seeing down on the farm.
Check out the OFR Farm Report tomorrow for more observations and insights.
What To Look For In Michael Soroka’s First Atlanta Start
Monday night in Oakland, Michael Soroka will make his first big league start since being helped off the field in a game against the Mets in a nearly empty Truist Field in the abbreviated 2020 COVID season. One of the most popular players to come out of the Braves system from the rebuild era, Soroka was coming off a 2019 that saw him the runner-up for Rookie of the Year, coming in 6th in Cy Young voting, and an All-Star selection. He culminated that season by firing 7 innings against the Cardinals in the NLDS, allowing only 1 run on 2 hits and striking out 7. It was an easy decision by manager Brian Snitker to anoint Soroka the Opening Day starter in the delayed 2o2o season, and he responded by shutting out the Mets in 6 innings, throwing only 69 pitches in the process.
It will be a different Michael Soroka that takes the mound in Oakland Coliseum. He’s more stout for one thing, as he concentrated on core and legs in his rehab process. He also very politely would prefer to be known as Michael instead of Mike, but he will quickly say it’s not a problem if you call him Mike by mistake. Also he will be 25 years old instead of a newly-minted 23 year old. In the meantime he’s had three surgeries on the treacherous Achilles tendon that knocked him out of the box in that empty stadium. He has been hit by comebackers, experienced shoulder inflammation, and a tight hamstring all providing completely unnecessary setbacks. But he’s back. What should fans expect based on his looks with the Gwinnett Stripers this season and at the end of last?
That Pinpoint Command Isn’t There Yet
Soroka has a sterling 6.3% walk rate in his brief major league career. In his time with Gwinnett this season it’s at 7.2%, and coming back from so much time away from competition it’s understandable, even expected, if he doesn’t have the same control as he had before right away. But beside the uptick in walks, he also has missed more in the zone, surrendering more hard contact than fans likely remember from 2019. Pitching to contact and limiting hard contact have long been part of Soroka’s pitching make-up, and his pitch efficiency is what had him looking like a top-of-the-rotation workhorse. Missing with his 2-seamer up and his 4-seamer down early could be an early sign of trouble.
Soroka Probably Won’t Miss Robo-Umps
The AAA level this year is experimenting with the Automated Ball-Strike system (ABS) that could be brought to the majors as early as next season. Soroka still does a nice job of placing his slider just slightly off the inside corner against left-handed hitters and he almost always gets that call — with human umpires. The ABS system correctly calls those balls and the typically unflappable Soroka sometimes would show exasperation at those pitches, often well-framed by his catcher, not getting the call. I suspect the human major league umps will give him those again.
Soroka Needs To Mix Up His Pitches
Some of Soroka’s earlier outings with Gwinnett should likely be disregarded as he was often working on only one or two pitches and results were somewhat secondary. Over his last four starts as he has aimed toward his major league return, he has done more mixing of his four pitches — 2-seam fastball, four-seam, slider, and change-up — to good results (.217/.295/.333 in those four starts versus .313/.378/.388 in his first four). While no doubt we would all love for Soroka to go six or more innings in this start, it will be important for Soroka to throw all four pitches early in the game to get off to a good start and keep hitters off balance. There’s no sense in worrying about getting through the third time through the order if you don’t get through two.
His Pitch Count Is Just Fine, Thank You
One of the conditions of Soroka’s promotion was showing he could get to 100 pitches in a start. His last Gwinnett start was 96 pitches, and his got to 91 pitches earlier in the season. Soroka isn’t fresh out of spring training, he’s been built up and physically he may be in (sorry) the best shape of his career. Unless he gets hit hard, expect him to go at least close to 100 pitches.
Most fans last memory of Soroka is likely him unable to put weight on his right leg and there will be lots of folks holding their breath has he pops off the mound to field a grounder or undertake something similarly athletic. Soroka himself is long past that.
His Stuff May Better Than It Was
As part of his rehab process, Soroka, Braves staff, and outside consultants did a complete breakdown of his mechanics to iron out anything than may put additional pressure on his surgically repaired Achilles. In this process, his slider and fastballs appear to have picked up a slight tick more RPMs. This gives all of those pitches more life, and gives even more separation for his change-up. If Soroka can maintain health and his command comes around, there is a chance that fans (and MLB hitters) haven’t seen the best of Michael Soroka yet.
Weekly Round-Up
AUGUSTA:
Augusta took four of six at home against Kannapolis, raising their record over .500. They are now 23-22, 6 games back of division leader Columbia and a half-game back of 3rd-pace Kannapolis. After taking Memorial Day off, the team will travel the short trek to Charleston for a six game series.
Third baseman David McCabe had a huge series, going 8-for-20 with 2 doubles and sending 4 batted balls over the wall and knocking in 8 while suiting up 5 of the 6 games. With shortstop Ambioris Tavarez demoted to the FCL this week, EJ Exposito took over the position and also had a good week at the plate, homering on Wednesday, his first long-ball since April 29, and then homering again on Sunday; while he only had 4 hits on the week, Expositio walked 5 times and was hit by a pitch so managed a .455 OBP, stealing a base and scoring 4 times. Outfielder Jair Casanova continued his good work, tallying 5 hits and two walks, including a homer, though his 18-game on-base streak ended with Sunday’s doubleheader opener.
With the complex league seasons opening up on Monday, June 5, shortstop prospect Tavarez was sent down after hitting .186/.287/.283. The 19-year-old showed talent at the position but was clearly overmatched offensively at the level. He had clearly been trying to make adjustments at the plate and he will continue for now with the FCL Braves.
Right-hander Cedric De Grandpre has been the Jackets’ best starter over the last several weeks, but questionable defense did him and Augusta in on Tuesday. De Grandpre allowed 4 runs (2 unearned), but struck out 7 and didn’t walk anyone in his 5.2 innings. Owen Murphy had a solid 4-inning start on Friday, only allowing 3 hits and 2 runs while striking out 7. With righties JR Ritchie and Seth Keller on the injured list, Adam Shoemaker (4 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 6 K) and Jared Johnson (3.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 6 K) stepped up. Righty Jhancarlos Lara had a particularly good piggypack appearance, going 4 innings and only allowing 1 hit while striking out 6 in relief of Johnson on Thursday, picking up the win.
ROME:
The Greenville Drive visited Rome this week for a grueling 7-game series and took 5 of the 7 from a Braves team that had a hard time sequencing their hits well enough to produce runs. Rome drops a game below .500 at 22-23, 4 games back of first place Winston-Salem as Greenville passes them for second place.
One of the few highlights of the week came in the first game of a Wednesday doubleheader as righty Daniel Martinez pitched all 7 innings allowing only 3 hits and striking out 5 in a 5-0 shutout. The other win came in the series wrap-up on Sunday. After Greenville scored 3 runs off starter Hunter Riggins, Rome came back with a Brandon Parker two-run triple in the 5th to tie the game followed by an Adam Zebrowski solo shot in the 6th to put them ahead. First baseman Bryson Horne added an insurance run in the 8th, singling home Geraldo Quintero to put Rome ahead 5-3 for good.
Despite having bad luck sequencing their hits, several Rome hitters did well in the series. Infielder Keshawn Ogans continued his hot May, going 6-for-19 with three doubles and walking 7 times to post a .500 OBP and stealing two bases. Catcher Drake Baldwin continued his power surge, homering for the 6th time this month and going .286/.375/.476 for the series. Centerfielder Kevin Kilpatrick also homered this week, but he also did good lead-off hitter stuff like getting on base at a .417 clip. First baseman Bryson Horne, buoyed by a 3-hit Sunday, went 8-for-25 with two doubles on the series, raising his batting average 31 points from the end of the last series. Shortstop Ignacio Alvarez however had a rare poor offensive week, only going 2-for-22 and not drawing a walk.
Righty Rolddy Munoz gave the team a good start on Saturday, pitching a career-high 5 innings and only allowing 3 hits and an unearned run, striking out 4. Tyler Owens had a similar start on Thursday, pitching 3 innings and only allowing 3 hits and an unearned run, striking out 4. Left-hander Hayden Harris has been strong since moving up from Augusta earlier in the month, delivering 3.2 scoreless relief innings over two outings in the series.
MISSISSIPPI:
The Mississippi Braves returned home this week to take on the first-place Pensacola Blue Wahoos, hoping to make up some ground in the Southern League South Division. Unfortunately, that did not happen as the teams split the six-game set. The M-Braves remain 7 ½ games back in the division and now return to the road to face the team with the worst record in the Southern League, the Birmingham Barons.
The starting pitching was solid this week as no starter gave up more than three earned runs in their starts and only Domingo Robles and Luis De Avila gave up more than one run in their efforts. De Avila got the bookend starts this week and gave up one run over five innings during his first start on Tuesday and three runs over five innings in his second one on Sunday. Jose Montilla got a second start as an opener and went even deeper this time with four innings of one-run ball on just 46 pitches. Robles gave up three earned runs over five innings on Thursday with nine strikeouts while Alan Rangel gave up just a solo home run over five innings on Friday. Scott Blewitt allowed just one run over 5.1 innings on Saturday.
The bullpen performed quite well as Miguel Pena, Alex Segal, Trey Riley, Hayden Deal, Jake McSteen, Kyle Wilcox, and Domingo Gonzalez all had multiple appearances without giving up any earned runs during the week. Wilcox tossed three perfect innings while striking out six and Deal tossed 3.2 scoreless innings.
1B-DH Drew Lugbauer continued his hot streak as he drove in a third of the Mississippi runs during the week (6-for-18, double, three home runs, seven RBI, and a stolen base (.333/.400/.889). Outfielder Landon Stephens was just 2-for-14 with eight strikeouts but one of his hits was a three-run homer on Saturday. Infielder Beau Philip had a solid week as he went 5-for-14 with a double, home run, and a stolen base (.357/.438/.643). Outfielder Jesse Franklin was 3-for-12 with a double and he was hit by a pitch.
GWINNETT:
The Gwinnett Stripers returned home this week for a series against the Durham Bulls. In a low-scoring series in which the Stripers only scored more than three runs once, they dropped four out of six and fell further back in the International League West standings and are now 13 ½ games back of first-place Iowa. Gwinnett now returns to the road for a series against the Norfolk Tides.
The starting pitching was mostly good this week as Michael Soroka opened the series on Tuesday with a tremendous start in which he gave up just one run over six innings of work and allowed just five baserunners while striking out eight. Soroka took the win in his final start before his callup to Atlanta to start in Oakland on Memorial Day. Beau Burrows followed that up on Wednesday with five innings of one-run ball and A.J. Smith-Shawver had a great start on Thursday with a seven-inning effort in which he gave up just two runs while striking out eight and allowing just four hits. Tanner Gordon, however, had an awful outing on Friday, giving up ten runs in just 3.2 innings. His first and third innings were fine, but he gave up six runs in the second inning and four more in the fourth before leaving at 85 pitches. Allan Winans did not have his best start on Saturday, but he ate up 6.1 innings while giving up four runs and nine hits.
Among the bullpen arms, Grant Holmes led the way with three scoreless outings covering 2.2 innings with a save. Joe Harvey had a great outing in his only appearance of the week as he struck out three of the four batters he faced on Saturday while lowering his season ERA to 1.46. Yacksel Rios earned a save in his only outing before hitting the seven-day injured list. Matt Swarmer returned from the IL and tossed three scoreless frames over two outings while Roddery Munoz did the same.
The offense only scored twenty runs during the week with eight of those coming on Friday night. Outfielder Nick Solak had a good week in going 6-for-20 with three doubles, a home run, and four RBI (.300/.417/.600). Shortstop Vaughn Grissom was just 4-for-25 with a double, two stolen bases, and four RBI (.160/.192/.200) while Braden Shewmake did not fare any better in going 1-for-18 with the lone hit being a home run (.056/.150/.222). Outfielder Forrest Wall was just 4-for-17 but had five walks and six stolen bases (.235/.409/.294) while fellow outfielder Eli White was 5-for-18 with four walks and three stolen bases (.278/.409/.389). Utilityman Chad Pinder was just 2-for-12 in three games prior to announcing his retirement.
POSITION PLAYER of the WEEK:
PITCHER of the WEEK:
Transaction Round-Up
- 5/20/2023: RHP Daysbel Hernandez placed on 7-day IL for AA Mississippi
- 5/21/2023: RHP Kyle Wilcox and IF Luke Waddell assigned to AA Mississippi from AAA Gwinnett; 3B Hudson Potts assigned to FCL Braves from AA Mississippi; OF Drew Campbell placed on the developmental list
With both Grissom and Shewmake back with Gwinnett and requiring every day starts, Waddell drops back to Mississippi to get more opportunities.
- 5/23/23: RHP Seth Keller placed on the 7-day injured list for A Augusta; RHP Estarlin Rodriguez assigned to A Augusta from A+ Rome
Keller had performed exceptionally well in his first taste of full-season ball. There hasn’t been word on the nature of the injury.
- 3/24/23: UT Alexander Then assigned to A Augusta from FCL Braves; SS Ambioris Tavarez assigned to FCL Braves
Tavarez came in at #10 on the OFR Prospect List before the season based on positive reports of his defense and his offensive potential. His first brush with full-season ball for the most part validated the first evaluation, but he has a long way to go with the bat. Starting the season with a high-hand set-up, he was unable to find the ball with the bat enough. He attempted to make mechanical adjustments on the fly, and he did put the ball in play with more authority for awhile, but he was still striking out at an alarming 44% rate. At 19 years old this will be far from the final word on Tavarez, and I would expect him back in Augusta at some point this season, but a step back to solidify his adjustments in the complex environment seems like a good idea.
- 3/25/23: LHP Dylan Dodd recalled from AAA Gwinnett; RHP Michael Tonkin placed on the 15-day injured list (strained neck)
Dodd got another spot start, and while the team won Dodd’s 4 runs on 7 hits in 5 innings performance didn’t seem to make the Braves considering giving him the 5th starter role and likely solidified the decision to recall Michael Soroka for the next opening. After a very strong start to the season, Tonkin had given up runs in each of his last three appearances; a nagging injury would explain a lot. His IL stint was backdated to 3/24.
- 3/25/23: RHP Yacksel Rios placed on the 7-day injured list for AAA Gwinnett; RHP Matt Swarmer and LHP Brian Moran activated from the 7-day injured list
Rios has been exceptional for Gwinnett this season and assuming the injury isn’t too serious would seem should merit consideration for Atlanta bullpen time.
- 3/27/23: RHP Dereck Rodriguez recalled from AAA Gwinnett; LHP Dylan Dodd optioned to AAA Gwinnett
Rodriguez provide 2 scoreless innings in relief on Sunday and it’s likely he will see time in Atlanta again.
- 3/27/23: C Joe Hudson activated from the 7-day injured list for AAA Gwinnett; C Hendrik Clementina placed on the developmental list
Clementina has hit .364/.371/.545 with a home run in 35 plate appearances with Gwinnett.
- 3/28/23 UT Chad Pinder released by AAA Gwinnett; OF Magneuris Sierra activated from developmental list
Pinder seemed highly likely to be recalled at some point this season, but he has chosen retirement instead. Pinder hit .242/.294/.417 in parts of 7 major league seasons while logging innings at every position except catcher. The highlight of his major league career was likely his performance in the 2020 playoffs with Oakland when he hit .318 with 2 home runs while starting at third base.
- 3/29/23: RHP Michael Soroka recalled from AAA Gwinnett; RHP Dereck Rodriguez optioned to AAA Gwinnett
Your Moment of Zen
David McCabe MASHES his second homer of the game and his 4th in the last 3 games! It's the first multi-homer game of the season for the Jackets.
This series, McCabe is 8-15 with 4 homers and 8 runs batted in 🔥🇨🇦 pic.twitter.com/2FQQq9AYH9
— Augusta GreenJackets (@GreenJackets) May 27, 2023
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