Welcome to the Braves Farm Report! This is the final report of the season as the minor leagues have wrapped it up for 2024. It is also the final report for Andy and Matt as we have decided to take an indefinite hiatus. You can still find us talking Braves minor leagues on the OFR Farm Report podcast and in other writings on this site, including our upcoming updated Top 30 Prospects list.
Weekly Round-Up
GWINNETT:
The Gwinnett Stripers wrapped up their season this week with a road series against the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. After taking two of the first three games, Gwinnett dropped the final three games while scoring a total of just six runs. The Stripers finished the second half at 37-38 and the full season at 72-78.
The starting pitchers produced a mixed bag this week as Hurston Waldrep (6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K on Tuesday), Ian Anderson (6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 5 K on Wednesday), and Drue Hackenberg (5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 4 K on Friday) all produced solid starts. On the other hand, Dylan Dodd (4 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 2 HR on Thursday), Bryce Elder (5 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K on Saturday), and AJ Smith-Shawver (6 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 10 K, 4 HR on Sunday) were all roughed up.
In the bullpen, Tyler Matzek and Jackson Stephens each turned in one-inning scoreless appearances while Domingo Gonzalez had a three-inning scoreless appearance in 44 pitches. Both are season highs and worth keeping an eye on for the future.
Nacho Alvarez was 4-for-20 during the week with an HBP and a walk while catcher Drake Baldwin was 7-for-21 with three doubles, three walks, and two runs batted in. Luke Williams went 8-for-24 with two doubles, a home run, and five RBI (.333/.407/.542). Outfielder Justin Dean had a four-hit game and was 5-for-10 during the week with three stolen bases. His stolen base in Sunday’s finale was his 60th of the season.
POSITION PLAYER of the WEEK:
PITCHER of the WEEK:
Transaction Round-Up
- 9/20/2024: 2B Ozzie Albies activated from the 10-day injured list; 2B Cavan Biggio to Gwinnett Stripers
Albies was reinserted into the number 2 spot in the line-up, batting exclusively from the right side of the plate as his healing wrist is still tender when batting from left side. After an 0’fer on Friday Albies picked up a hit on Saturday and on Sunday put one over the fence against right-hander Darren McCaughan of the Marlins.
- 9/20/2024: RHPs Trey Riley and Brooks Wilson and OF Brandon Parker released from AA Mississippi; C Jose Marcano released from A+ Rome; RHP Adel Dilone released from A Augusta; RHP Carter Rees released from FCL Braves
The first round of what will likely be a several departures from the organization. Riley, Wilson, and Parker have been fixtures in the organization, Wilson since 2017, Riley 2018, and Parker 2019. Of the three Wilson came the closest to making the majors, looking like a possible big league promote in 2021 after pitching 6 games with Gwinnett but suffering a torn UCL that caused him to miss the rest of the 2021 season and all of 2022
Dilone pitched well for Augusta in 20 appearances (3.08 ERA, 2 starts), but has been on the IL since August 23. Presumably the prognosis on the injury wasn’t strong enough for the Braves to elect to keep Dilone around. Marcano was signed after being released from the Mets DSL team back in March. He had worked as an emergency catcher at three levels, amassing 12 plate appearances during the season, none with Rome.
Mailbag!
For this final farm report we’ve opened up the mailbag. Thanks to readers on twitter.com for your questions!
Q: Breakout pitcher and hitter? Most likely big riser on the mound and at the plate heading into 2025? Most disappointing hitting and pitching prospect of 2024?-@JimBlaine
A: For the pitchers, my breakout player this season was Lucas Braun. Braun, a sixth-round pick in 2023 from Cal-State Northridge, led the organization with 162 strikeouts in 143.2 IP over 24 starts with a 3.26 ERA. He started off the season at High-A Rome and compiled a 4.34 ERA in 12 outings (11 starts) although his FIP was 3.42 and xFIP was 3.35. He really took off once he was promoted to Double-A Mississippi at the end of June. Braun had a 2.38 ERA in 13 starts for the M-Braves with a 2.92 FIP/3.16 xFIP and gave up zero or one hits in three of his last ten starts. He likely would have finished his season at Triple-A Gwinnett if not for the stacked rotation at that level. Braun could repeat at Columbus to begin 2025 depending on AAA depth but should work his way up quickly and get himself into the mix for big-league starts sometime during the summer.
My big riser on the mound for 2025 isn’t really a tough choice: JR Ritchie. Ritchie, who just turned 21 in June, was the 35th pick of the 2022 draft out of high school but suffered an elbow injury in 2023 that necessitated Tommy John surgery. Ritchie returned in mid-June with three complex league starts before being moved to Low-A Augusta, where he made seven starts before being promoted to High-A Rome to make his final two starts of the season. He will likely start 2025 at Rome with a possible promotion to Columbus by early summer. It would not be surprising to see a trajectory similar to that of Drue Hackenberg this season, starting at Rome and ending 2025 at Gwinnett being a real possibility. -Matt
A: The choices for a breakout hitter are fewer and far between. The two top hitters in the organization, catcher Drake Baldwin and infielder Nacho Alvarez, both were fairly well regarded coming into this season and while they have exceeded those expectations it would be hard to describe either of them as “breakouts”. The Braves minor leagues as a whole only had a .648 OPS on the year, by far the worst mark since the cancelled pandemic year, a very disappointing mark. All that’s to say that Rome first baseman Drew Compton is my choice for breakout position player. The former Georgia Tech star and non-drafted amateur free agent last year hit .289/.394/.414 between Augusta and Rome and was Rome’s most consistent bat in the second half, especially after overcoming a mid-July injury. He lead all Braves minor leaguers in wRC+ (138), That said, it shouldn’t be unexpected to have a Division 1 player, especially one who hit well, to also do well in A-ball. Compton will be 24 years old next year, likely starting for Columbus and looking to establish himself as a potential major league bench bat. Some things that would help him in that would be showing a bit more over-the-fence power (only 8 homers in 2024, though he did swat 24 doubles) and showing he can hold down third base if necessary, a position he played extensively in college but has played twice in his pro career.
As for who to watch for next year, keep your eyes on the young international players, specifically Luis Guanipa, Jose Perdomo, Junior Garcia, John Gil, and Carlos Monteverde. All will be under 20 years old and will likely start the season in Augusta. The Braves are banking someone, and hopefully multiple someones, in this group breaking out. If I was picking only one right now, I’d choose Junior Garcia, a corner outfielder who appears slightly more advanced at the plate at this time and also appears to have more room to physically develop.
As for biggest disappointments, we usually don’t like to outright trash players. Just in general the lack of offense everywhere except Gwinnett was simply disheartening. And the injuries to pitchers Owen Murphy and Cade Kuehler were serious bummers. -Andy
Q: Is there any reason historically or otherwise to think The Clingstones park/conditions will play any better offensively than they typically did in Mississippi? -@Reb2112
A: From a home run standpoint, Trustmark Park ranked 120th out of 120 full-season ballparks in 2023 according to Baseball America and that’s been a regular result for years now. In regards to run-scoring, Sugar Land (AAA, PCL) was the only park rated worse than Trustmark Park and Trustmark was tied with Arkansas (AA, Texas League) and Sacramento (AAA, PCL) for second-worst. That’s the same Sacramento park where the Oakland Athletics will be playing their games in 2025.
It will likely take about three years to get a gauge on how Synovus Park in Columbus will rank, but one old adage will certainly apply here: things can’t get any worse. -Matt
A: Take this with huge grain of salt, but I did go back and look at the last minor league team to play in that park, the 2005-08 Columbus Catfish. That team scored at roughly the league average over that time (4.82 runs per game versus 4.74 league average), two of the four years being higher and two being lower. While that’s a very dirty window to peer in for ballpark factor, it’s what I’ve got. Of course we don’t know if the significant renovations being conducted on the park will change how it plays too. Long and short, we don’t know but it almost would have to play fairer than Trustmark Park. -Andy
Q: If the Braves were going to fill the 2026 shortstop hole internally, give us odds on Nacho vs the field? Follow-up: who are we not talking about enough in that battle? -@CrosbyBaseball
A: If Alvarez is still in the organization after this season, I would place the odds of him being the Braves starting shortstop in 2026 at around 45% versus the field. I say that because shortstop is the one position where the team can make the most impact with an improved offensive player over the incumbent this coming offseason, and if they do make a move to shore up that position it’s likely that same player will be the starting shortstop in 2026. Put another way, I don’t think there will be a 2026 shortstop hole, the position will be dealt with in some form in 2025.
Granted Alvarez didn’t acquit himself well at the plate in his 8-game look last month, but that was hardly indicative of his talents. I believe its only a matter of time before Alvarez becomes a major leaguer. Defensively he’s got good hands, a good arm, solid instincts, and plays well around the bag. What he doesn’t have is the great range at shortstop that Braves fans may have gotten used to with Orlando Arcia, who despite his inconsistency offensively has done a nice job more than holding down the position after Dansby Swanson’s departure. I believe Alvarez is capable of being an average major league defensive shortstop. The question is will the Braves be satisfied with that after showing that they place a premium on up-the-middle defense.
I see two paths. The Braves will either find another starting shortstop this offseason, likely through trade rather than free agency, or they will open the position up to a battle between Arcia and Alvarez in spring training. If Alvarez prevails in the spring, or captures the job in the first months of the 2025 season, I think the odds are good he sticks for awhile.
I really don’t think there’s another name that’s not being talked about. Gwinnett’s Luke Waddell profiles as a potential solid utility infielder but doesn’t have Alvarez’s hit tool or power potential. Mississippi’s Cal Conley has speed and can hold the position but doesn’t do nearly enough at the plate. Rome’s Ambioris Tavarez is only 20 years old and has hit only .218/.312/.337 so far in the minors. He was the first big international signing by Atlanta after the sanctions and its clearly way too early to give up on his development, but the likelihood he would have enough of a turnaround to make himself a major league candidate by 2026 is too far of a fetch. -Andy
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