Transaction: Atlanta Braves trade OF Jorge Soler to the Los Angeles Angels for RHP Griffin Canning
The digital ink wasn’t even dry on my pseudo-annual Braves Offseason Priorities post when Braves president Alex Anthopoulos and his old stomping buddy Perry Minasian, now Angels general manager, consummated the first move of the official off-season, sending 2021 World Series hero Jorge Soler to sunny Southern California for former 2017 2nd-rounder Griffin Canning.
First, the boring money stuff: the move relieves Atlanta of the $24 million remaining on Soler’s contract for the next two seasons. Canning is entering his second arbitration eligible and is estimated by MLB Trade Rumors to likely earn around $5.1 million in the process barring coming to agreement with the Braves ahead of filing or being non-tendered by the team, making him a free agent.
Indeed some pundits, lead by MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, seem to believe that’s the most likely outcome here. I’m not sure I agree — the Braves must have *some* level of interest or they would have traded Soler for cash or a lottery ticket-type of prospect as the trade return. While a non-tender is certainly a possibility on the table, I suspect the Braves will come to agreement with Canning before the tender/non-tender deadline on November 22.
From a roster standpoint, the move essentially clears the DH roster logjam I discussed in my post yesterday. Marcell Ozuna‘s option will be picked up on Monday and he will have primary DH duties again for 2025. Ronald Acuña Jr. may spend some time at the position to give his surgically repaired knee some rest. The move also breathes life into the possibility of outfielder Ramón Laureano being retained for next year to play right field when Acuña gets that breather and/or play left field either as a starter or in a platoon situation with Jarred Kelenic.
For the Angels’ part, they get a bone fide middle-of-the-order hitter a year after team DHs only hit .206/.284/.323 for the season. Soler’s contract is perfectly reasonable, and considering the team’s 63-99 record in 2024, they would probably have had to overpay a similarly-talented free agent to agree to come to the team.
Getting to Know Griffin Canning
Griffin is a 28-year-old, 5-year major league veteran coming off the worst year of his career. He had a 5.19 ERA/5.38 FIP in 32 appearances (31 starts), though he did throw a career-high 171.2 innings. The reason for his drop in performance is likely his severe drop in strikeout rate: only 17.6% coming off a career average of 24.6%. Overall he owns a career 4.78 ERA in 508 innings pitched.
Those numbers would indicate a fringe 5th-starter type, someone who can take the ball regularly but would give the team a slightly less than 50% chance of winning in a given outing. And if that’s all he is, that would still be something with a spot open on the rotation and two spots open in the bullpen.
Of course, the Braves are no doubt hoping there is something else there to unlock, and Canning does seem like a classic change-of-scenery guy. Looking at his stuff, there’s indications of something to work with there. Canning’s best pitch is his change-up, which Statcast shows having a run value of 4, meaning it’s about 4 runs better than league average. To put it in perspective, Max Fried‘s change-up, arguably the best among Braves starters last season, had a run value of 3. Canning’s change-up averages 16.2 inches of armside movement.
So that pitch will play, but it needs something to play with. Until last season, that pitch would have been a slider, but it got appreciably worse last year than prior years, losing almost two full inches in induced vertical movement, making it much more hittable. This was likely the biggest reason for his lack of strikeouts in 2024. Braves pitching coaches and analysts have helped many pitchers over the last few years create better shape with the slider, and I suspect this will be Job One this offseason.
Traditionally both of these pitches would play off a four-seam fastball. Canning’s is a pedestrian offering, averaging 93.4 mph in 2024, a full mile per hour dip from 2023. It has some armside run like the change-up, and while it doesn’t get hit particularly hard on average, batters do tend to make a lot of contact with it. The Braves will likely look to have Canning minimize its use to a set-up pitch, and perhaps work with him to hit the corners with it more.
Canning also has also thrown a curveball, a sinker, and a sweeper, the last of these a somewhat new development.
Assuming he signs a new deal with Atlanta to avoid arbitration, Canning would seem to be a rotation candidate, especially if Spencer Strider needs extra time at the beginning of the season. Canning does have some limited experience as a reliever and did well in those opportunities, so he could also be in line for some middle inning, save-the-pen action.
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