Atlanta Braves 2023 Top Prospects

 

1. Owen Murphy, RHP
Age: 19
4.50 ERA | 2.50 FIP | 5 G, 5 GS | 12.0 IP | 4.50 BB/9 | 12.75 K/9 (FCL/A)
Acquired: Drafted, 1st Round – 2022
Prior Ranking: N/A

Taken with the 20th overall pick in the 2022 draft, Murphy had an abbreviated but exciting debut with the Braves organization. Heralded for his athleticism, Murphy was a two-way star on the baseball field and excelled on the football field as well, and he made some news when he announced after being drafted that the Braves would allow him to develop as both a pitcher and a position player, but the Braves moved quickly to quash that kind of talk.

In his brief time with the FCL Braves and Augusta, Murphy showcased a mid-90s fastball that touched the high 90s in early innings. It shows excellent riding life and explosiveness, though command tended to slip as outings progressed. His slider is more of a Luke Jackson-style hard slurve that has good swing-and-miss potential, but in looks with Augusta he stayed almost exclusively with the fastball. He reportedly also throws a cutter and a change-up, but it will remain to be seen if those pitches transfer to his professional repertoire.

It’s super-cliché to say, but the 6’1″, 195 pounder with simple but clean mechanics “just looks like a pitcher”. The potential is already there for two above-average to plus pitches as well as above average command with a body and mechanics that look to be able to chew up innings. He will likely return to low-A Augusta to start 2022. Traditionally the Braves liked their teenage pitchers to get a full season in low-A, and they did that with recent draft picks AJ Smith-Shawver and Joey Estes; the guess here is that Murphy sticks with the Jackets all season and refines his game in a relatively low-stress environment.

2. J.R. Ritchie, RHP
Age: 19
1.85 ERA | 3.60 FIP | 5 G, 5 GS | 14.1 IP | 9.1 BB/9 | 8.79 K/9 (FCL/A)
Acquired: Drafted, 1st Round – 2022
Prior Ranking: N/A

Acquired with a draft pick that Atlanta got from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for Drew Waters, Andrew Hoffmann, and CJ Alexander, Ritchie is a rare “pitchability” high school pick. The pre-draft scuttlebutt had Ritchie with a fairly advanced pitching repertoire, but with a lower ceiling than most other early-round prep stars.

In his brief looks in Augusta late last summer, Ritchie was limited to primarily throwing the fastball, which he held in the mid-90s and threw with good command to all quadrants. Ritchie did throw a few sliders and they show swing-and-miss potential, with a decently sharp break that could be a true weapon with further development. Ritchie also reportedly shows a change-up, but he did not appear to use it in his post-draft outings in Augusta.

Ritchie will likely return to Augusta along with draftmate Owen Murphy to give Atlanta its first teenage low-A top-two starters since 2017 when Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, and Bryse Wilson toed the rubber for low-A Rome. Ritchie already has shown to be a little more polished than Murphy, and it would not be surprising if Ritchie advanced faster than him, though the Braves have historically preferred their prep draft picks to have full seasons in low-A.

3. Jared Shuster, LHP
Age: 24
3.29 ERA | 3.99 FIP | 27 G, 25 GS | 139.1 IP | 2.45 BB/9 | 9.37 K/9 (AA/AAA)
Acquired: Drafted, 1st Round – 2020
Prior Ranking: 5

With fellow 2020 draftmates Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder already making their marks in the major leagues, it may be natural to wonder what is holding up 2020 first-rounder Shuster. The answer is nothing, his development has been on track and just appears slower compared to the meteoric rise of Strider and Elder. Shuster arrived at Gwinnett in midseason 2022 pretty much right on schedule after showing out as one of the best pitchers of the AA Southern League and being tabbed as the Braves representative for the Futures Game. Shuster was challenged with 10 games at AAA Gwinnett in the final two months, holding hitters to a respectable .239/.300/.461 batting line.

Shuster attacks the strike zone with a fastball, change-up, and slider. The fastball is thrown in the low-90s with decent action, but it’s made much more effective by his plus-plus change-up. Shuster shows excellent command of both pitches. A big development for Shuster was the improvement of his slider from a slurvish get-me-over pitch in 2021 to a true swing-and-miss harder pitch. The effect of having a true third-pitch weapon was reflected in not only improved strikeout rates, but less hard contact as well and more groundballs, generating 5% more worm-burners than in 2021. Shuster also increased his innings-per-start over 2021 by over a full inning. .

Shuster will likely return to Gwinnett and pitch most of the season there. With so many pitchers on the 40-man roster, the Braves have the luxury of letting him simmer for further development, but he could be in the mix for starts for the majors at some point in 2023.

4. Darius Vines, RHP
Age: 24
2.92 ERA | 4.05 FIP | 22 G, 22 GS | 111.0 IP | 2.35 BB/9 | 10.46 K/9 (AA/AAA)
Acquired: Drafted, 7th Round – 2019
Prior Ranking: 11

Vines started the season in Mississippi and became one of the top starters in the Southern League thanks to improved strikeout rates to go along with a sterling walk rate. He was leading the league in strikeouts 20 starts into the season when he was promoted to Gwinnett. While Vines was less consistent at Gwinnett, he wasn’t overmatched either, holding hitters to a .228/.301/.347 batting line.

Vines went into 2022 looking to improve his fastball command and he was successful, keeping the 92-95 mph offering on the black more often and allowing it to pair up with his very effective change-up to get plenty of swing-and-miss. Vines’ slider took a step forward as well, increasing the sharpness of the pitch while all but abandoning the loopy curveball that was his bread-and-butter pitch in college and his early pro years.

Atlanta added Vines to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. With other starting prospects Kyle Muller and Freddy Tarnok now out of the organization after the Sean Murphy trade, Vines looks to start the season fourth in line behind Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, and Bryce Elder in the pecking order for major league starts. He could also get major league batters out in the bullpen if required, and spring training showed that in short stints he can put the fastball well in the high 90s.

5. A.J. Smith-Shawver, RHP
Age: 20
5.11 ERA | 3.53 FIP | 17 G, 17 GS | 68.2 IP | 5.11 BB/9 | 13.50 K/9 (A)
Acquired: Drafted, 7th Round – 2021
Prior Ranking: 12

Prior to the 2022 draft, no pitcher in the Braves organization gave evaluators more to get excited about than Smith-Shawver, an athletic multi-sport prep star out of Colleyville Heritage High School. Actually, that could be true even after the draft and Smith-Shawver currently sits atop Baseball America’s top Braves prospect list after the trade of left-hander Kyle Muller. Smith-Shawver spent his entire first full pro season at low-A Augusta. While the results may not always have been pretty, Smith-Shawver struck out an impressive 103 batters in 69 innings and limited batters to a .215 batting average. Smith-Shawver’s bugaboos were walks and long at-bats that ate up his pitch count.

Smith-Shawver’s fastball is his calling card, a mid-90s four-seamer with tremendous action; if Smith-Shawver can command it consistently it has top-of-the-rotation potential. His slider has a terrific sharp break and is thrown with a confidence that belies Smith-Shawver’s relative inexperience. His change-up is very much a third pitch at this time but occasionally shows quality movement. Everything currently plays down due to inconsistent mechanics he often throwing crossfire as his arm moves ahead of his body.

These are all correctable issues; it’s a lot easier to develop a pitcher with shaky mechanics and good stuff than the opposite. That is of course dependent on staying healthy, and Smith-Shawver left his final start on August 5, 2022 after one inning with an apparent injury. Assuming he’s recovered, he should start the season in high-A Rome, though a return to Augusta for more polishing wouldn’t be out of the question.

6. Cole Phillips, RHP
Age: 19
Acquired: Drafted, 2nd Round – 2022
Prior Ranking: N/A

Phillips was on track to being a first round selection out of Boerne High School in Texas after his fastball started to register in the high 90s on the regular and touching triple digits. Unfortunately for Phillips his UCL tore and he needed Tommy John surgery. Atlanta has never been shy betting on on young pitchers with torn UCLs and took Phillips in the second round and gave him a $1.5 million signing bonus.

Phillips has the classic 6’3″, 200 pound starting pitcher frame and has shown good athleticism on the mound. In addition to his added velocity, Phillips demonstrated improved control in his senior season. His top secondary pitch is sometimes described as a slider and sometimes as a curveball, but everyone agrees that it is thrown hard and has a sharp break that misses bats. “High-velocity”, “sharp, hard breaking ball”, and “throws strikes” would be the three ingredients Braves scientists would use to make their perfect pitching prospect. Phillips also reportedly throws a change-up, but like many top-end high school pitchers he didn’t throw it much in games.

Phillips started throwing this offseason and will be looking for a mid-summer pro debut. If all goes well, he could rejoin his draftmates Owen Murphy and J.R. Ritchie in Augusta by the end of the season.

7. Geraldo Quintero, IF
Age: 21 | Bats: S
.258/.356/.412 | 115 wRC+ | 8 HR | 34 SB | 11.3% BB | 17.7% K (A/A+)
Acquired: International Amateur Free Agent – 2019
Prior Ranking: N/A

So here we are in the year 2023 and our top position player in the Atlanta system is a 21-year-old with only 10 home runs in 893 professional plate appearances and an uncertain defensive future. Scouted and signed in the middle of the nadir of the Braves international sanctions, Quintero stood out in the DSL in 2019 for his on-base ability, speed, and appearances in both centerfield and second base. After a short and unimpressive post-pandemic season in 2021 with the FCL Braves, Quintero made his full-season debut with Augusta in 2022, where he started slowly while playing third and second base. He warmed up with the weather however and after June 1 was one of the toughest outs in the Carolina League. Quintero finished out the season with 25 games batting 3rd for the Rome Braves and hitting .236/.349/.348 in high-A action.

Quintero is only 5’8″ but is a quick-twitch hitter that sprays the ball to all fields, usually on a line. He possesses one of the better batting eyes in the system and isn’t afraid to take a walk. Once on base he has the wheels to regularly steal 30+ bases at a high rate of success thanks to good instincts and a good first step. A switch-hitter with an open batting stance, the comparisons to Ozzie Albies are easy to make, and like with Albies there’s the potential for more power to make its way into his game. Unlike Albies however, there are serious questions about his defense. He was worked heavily at third base in Augusta and was a bit of a disaster at the hot corner. He seems much more comfortable at second base, though his hands and reactions are still below average.

Fortunately for Quintero, he’s very young and has time to continue to continue to develop his defense. Nevertheless it’s an important year for Quintero as he will be Rule 5 eligible after the season. The Braves will likely start him back at Rome, but if he hits he could be promoted quickly to give the Braves a better handle on what they have with Quintero.

8. Dylan Dodd, LHP
Age: 24
3.36 ERA | 3.11 FIP | 26 G, 26 GS | 142.0 IP | 1.96 BB/9 | 9.70 K/9 (A+/AA)
Acquired: Acquired: Drafted, 3rd Round – 2021
Prior Ranking: 32

In his first full pro season, Dodd zoomed up the organizational ladder three rungs, starting in high-A Rome and finishing out in AAA Gwinnett. Along the way Dodd led the organization in innings pitched and had the highest strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.94) among qualified pitchers. The Braves drafted Dodd as a senior out of Southeast Missouri State, the highest senior sign in that draft by any team in what looked at the time to be a pool-conserving move to move bonus money to other players… which it probably was, but it’s also clear that Atlanta’s scouting was eager to get hold of him.

Dodd commands four legitimate pitches, headlined by both four-seam and two-seam fastballs. He does a nice job of hiding which one he’s throwing on a given pitch, and that deception and the command does a lot to make up for somewhat pedestrian velocity (sitting 91-93 on both). For swing-and-miss he moves to either his slider or his change-up, with both again playing up due to strong command. The slider varies in shape, with it sometimes going a little slurvy, but when he can get a sharper break on it he gets a lot of swings over top of it. Dodd’s change-up is above average already and has a chance at being a real weapon even at higher levels.

Dodd will likely get a major league spring training invitation and an Opening Day assignment to AAA Gwinnett. A major league call-up this year could also be in the cards.

9. Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP
Age: 22
Acquired: Drafted, 2nd Round – 2021
Prior Ranking: 8

There was hope that Schwellenbach would be able to get back to the mound at some point in 2022, but that proved not to be the case. The former Nebraska two-way star instead continued his rehab from Tommy John surgery he underwent just after the 2021 draft. Schwellenbach was cleared for throwing in April 2022, so presumably he will be ready to go this spring.

Schwellenbach demonstrated electric stuff working as Nebraska’s closer his junior year, the only season in which he pitched for the ‘Huskers. He has a four-seam fastball that has hit triple digits, as well as a slider and change-up. He was able to throw all three pitches with command. After the draft, the Braves indicated a desire to develop Schwellenbach as a starter.

Atlanta’s record with bringing pitchers with UCL tears has been impressive the last eight years. I would expect Schwellenbach to start the year in Augusta, and if the rust is knocked off quickly and his health remains good he could be a rapid mover within the system.

10. Ambioris Tavarez, SS
Age: 19 | Bats: R
.277/.304/.385 | 91 wRC+ | 1 HR | 3 SB | 4.3% BB | 40.6% K (FCL)
Acquired: International Amateur Free Agent – 2021
Prior Ranking: 9

Tavarez looked to be on a fast climb to Augusta last spring training when he jumped the fence to play in a couple of games for the big league club, an unusual honor for a player that had yet to make his professional debut. Unfortunately, Tavarez had to have surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome afterwards, which delayed his season debut until August. As expected he showed a lot of rawness at the plate, but was better than advertised at shortstop and when he did make contact the ball jumped off the bat.

One of the more physically impressive players in the Braves lower minor leagues, Tavarez likes to show off a strong arm from shortstop and reports on his work in the FCL indicates strong instincts and lateral movement, though there is risk that his size could force him to third base if he continues physical maturation. At the plate he demonstrates power to all fields, and the Braves will look to help him simplify his mechanics and approach to get the bat on the ball more consistently.

Tavarez has been playing in the Colombian Winter League to get more reps, and if he shows better hitting feel this spring he could be primed for a 2023 opening assignment in Augusta.

11. Luis Guanipa, OF
Age: 17
Acquired: International Amateur Free Agent – 2023
Prior Ranking: N/A

Atlanta’s top signing in this international free agent signing period is Guanipa, a Venezuelan centerfielder who should be able to stay in the position.

Guanipa shows excellent bat speed that will let the ball jump off the bat, though time will tell if his raw power will regularly translate into games. Even if it doesn’t, Guanipa has a chance still be a good offensive player thanks to what looks like a strong hit tool and above average speed. That speed should allow him to stick in centerfield though reportedly his arm currently grades out as below average.

Signing international teenagers to big bonuses has always been a crapshoot, and it has seldom worked well for Atlanta, but the Braves seem particularly enthusiastic about Guanipa, extolling not only his athleticism but also his makeup. He will start his pro journey in the Dominican Summer League.

12. Braden Shewmake, SS
Age: 25 | Bats: L
.259/.316/.399 | 89 wRC+ | 7 HR | 9 SB | 7.5% BB | 18.6% K (AAA)
Acquired: Drafted, 1st Round – 2019
Prior Ranking: 7

Shewmake started and played the whole season in AAA Gwinnett with the potential to put himself in position to be a candidate to replace free agent Dansby Swanson if the incumbent Atlanta shortstop left in free agency. While the latter event did happen, Shewmake was never seriously considered a replacement after a year that saw him continue his offensive challenges in an injury plagued season and 22-year old Vaughn Grissom vault past him on the depth chart.

The Braves aggressively pushed Shewmake all the way to AA in his first pro season in 2019, and it seems clear now that it was an example of Atlanta being too aggressive. To his credit, Shewmake put a lot of questions about his defense behind him in 2021, though back injuries seemed to bother him in the field in 2022 before he was finally forced to end his season after an August 6 collision in the outfield where he suffered a hyperextended knee. The Braves protected Shewmake on the 40-man roster this offseason, so presumably he is on track for a full recovery.

Until Shewmake can demonstrate he can hit at higher levels his major league prospects remain stubbornly in the utility infielder category, through there was some signs that the swing change he and the Braves instituted in 2021 is starting bear fruit. Shewmake’s ground ball rate dropped from an unacceptable 48.4% in 2021 to 39.4%. Shewmake will likely never be a big home run hitter, but getting more balls on lines to the outfield grass and wall is a worthy and obtainable goal. Shewmake also showed a little more selectiveness at the plate, but he still rolls over on too many outside pitches rather than letting them go by.

As mentioned above, Atlanta apparently saw enough improvement from Shewmake to protect him on the 40-man roster. Grissom is far from a sure thing to stick at shortstop for Atlanta, and it would be quite the comeback story for Shewmake to hit the ground running this spring with continued offensive improvement and put himself in position to take reps in Atlanta if Grissom should falter. At the very least, the Braves would love for Shewmake to show he could potentially replace pending free agent Orlando Arcia as the top infield back-up.

13. Victor Vodnik, RHP
Age: 23
2.41 ERA | 3.38 FIP | 30 G, 0 GS | 33.2 IP | 5.08 BB/9 | 12.56 K/9 (AA/AAA)
Acquired: Drafted, 14th Round – 2018
Prior Ranking: 10

After an injury-plagued 2021 and start to 2022, the Braves decided to pull the plug on Vodnik’s time as a starting pitcher and convert him to a reliever. As many suspected would happen, Vodnik took to the role like a duck to water, allowing his fastball to play in the high ’90s. He quickly was promoted to AAA Gwinnett where command issues sometimes sabotaged his efforts but overall looked good before injuries once again limited his appearances.

As a starter, Vodnik had to rely on a suspect change-up to give left-handers a different look, and lefties killed him (.339/.456/.589) in 2021. As a reliever, not only does the fastball play up, but Vodnik’s hard slider plays better, making it a better weapon against hitters standing on either side of the plate.

Vodnik was left exposed to the Rule 5 draft and no other team bit on him, but his upside as a high-leverage reliever still has him as our top relief prospect in the system. If Vodnik can show in AAA that he can hold down the walks as he was able to do at lower levels — and if he can stay healthy — he could be in the big leagues in 2023.

14. Drake Baldwin, C
Age: 22 | Bats: L
.258/.396/.315 | 113 wRC+ | 0 HR | 1 SB | 17.1% BB | 22.5% K (FCL/A)
Acquired: Drafted, 3rd Round – 2022
Prior Ranking: N/A

The top position player taken in the most recent draft by Atlanta, Baldwin blossomed at the plate in his junior season with Missouri State.

Baldwin has a quick and smooth swing out of a deep crouch that allows him to get loft on the ball despite having a relatively flat bat path. Baldwin has excellent strike zone judgement and rarely chases out of the zone. Behind the plate, Baldwin is a work in progress but is quick and athletic for a catcher.

Teams don’t really draft for “need” in baseball, but after the trade of former first-rounder Shea Langeliers to Oakland, the Braves prospect depth at catcher, and enviable spot not that long ago, took a big hit. Baldwin fills that to some degree as a rare lefty-hitting catcher. He will likely start the season at high-A Rome.

15. Adam Maier, RHP
Age: 21
Acquired: Drafted, 7th Round – 2022
Prior Ranking: N/A

One of the biggest wild cards in the system, Maier was drafted in the 7th round and given an overslot bonus by Atlanta despite only having thrown 35 innings at the collegiate level. Originally a two-way player (shortstop and pitcher) he transferred to Oregon and became a starting pitcher until an elbow injury shut him down. Instead of undergoing a full UCL reconstruction, Maier elected to undergo an internal brace procedure to shore up the UCL. If it goes well, Maier should be able to face batters early this season.

Maier brings a four-pitch repertoire to the mound, including two- and four-seam fastballs, a change-up, and his calling card — a vicious high-spin slider that darts dramatically away from right-handed hitters. He complements that pitch with the two-seamer that runs in the low 90s and a change-up with natural sink. If it all works he should be able to generate both strikeouts and ground balls.

Between the injury and the inexperience, there’s plenty of question marks with Maier but what he has shown is enough to make one sit up and take notice.

16. Jesse Franklin, OF
Age: 24 | Bats: L
.236/.333/.400 | 94 wRC+ | 2 HR | 2 SB | 9.1% BB | 27.3% K (AA)
Acquired: Drafted, 3rd Round – 2020
Prior Ranking: 14

Franklin demonstrated a power bat for Rome in 2021, but was streaky and was exposed in the Arizona Fall League against advanced pitching. This looked to be a critical developmental season for Franklin heading into AA ball, but a UCL tear and Tommy John surgery cut his season off after only 15 games.

Franklin has worked hard to make his swing more concise and he’s a good bet to continue to hit bombs. However he still gets fooled by good off-speed and will rack up the strikeouts. He has speed enough to steal in the double-digits and cover ground in the outfield.  Before elbow surgery he had a plus outfield arm, so how he recovers from elbow surgery will determine if he can remain a right field candidate.

Franklin will likely return to Mississippi and can hopefully at least DH early in the season. Franklin needs to show more contact skills if he wants to be thought of as a potential left field solution in Atlanta for 2024 or later.

17. Cal Conley, SS
Age: 23 | Bats: S
.251/.318/.420 | 101 wRC+ | 16 HR | 36 SB | 8.0% BB | 19.9% K (A/A+)
Acquired: Drafted, 4th Round – 2021
Prior Ranking: 29

Conley had a slow start to his pro career, only hitting .214/.304/.307 for low-A Augusta after being selected in the 4th-round out of Texas Tech. This disappointing start carried over in 2022 repeating in Augusta and only hitting .218/.278/.379 through the end of May. Improvement at the plate in June combined with a spot opening up in Rome with the promotion of Vaughn Grissom to Mississippi made room for Conley to move up. Conley got hot in Rome, helping the team to make the playoffs. Conley was selected to go to the Arizona Fall League and acquitted himself well, hitting .267/.376/.465 as the primary shortstop for Scottsdale.

A stand-out offensive player at Texas Tech, Conley has taken some time to adjust to the pro game, but his natural hitting talent should make him a solid gap-to-gap hitter with occasional line-drive power. Conley has good speed and even better instincts on the bases. Defensively he has good hands and is fundamentally sound which helps compensate for an average arm.

Conley will likely move up to AA Mississippi to start the 2023 season and presumably stay at shortstop. He received a major league spring training invite and should be on the radar as a potential utility infielder for 2024.

18. Diego Benitez, SS
Age: 18 | Bats: R
.196/.363/.283 | 92 wRC+ | 2 HR | 3 SB | 15.9% BB | 20.3% K (DSL)
Acquired: International Amateur Free Agent – 2022
Prior Ranking: 6

The Braves finally rid themselves of the onerous sanctions placed on the team in the wake of the Coppolella bundling scandal and spent a big chunk of their first full international pool allowance on Benitez, a 6′-1″, 190 pound Venezuelan shortstop. Atlanta handed him a $2.5 million signing bonus, the largest the team has given an international amateur since infielder Kevin Maitan and catcher Abrahan Gutierrez both exceeded that amount in the infamous 2016 international class.

The tools are all evident for Benitez, with bat speed and strength that should allow him to hit for power, a solid approach that should let him hit for average, and and a good fundamental base that should allow him to use his tools at shortstop.

The Braves took a big, aggressive swing in their first full international signing period in awhile, and getting a kid that is drawing Manny Machado comps is a good way to make solid contact.

19. Roddery Munoz, RHP
Age: 22
4.66 ERA | 4.15 FIP | 22 G, 22 GS | 100.1 IP | 3.77 BB/9 | 10.67 K/9 (A+/AA)
Acquired: International Amateur Free Agent – 2018
Prior Ranking: N/A

The 2017-2020 international signing periods won’t be looked at with fondness in Atlanta Braves history thanks to going over the bonus limits in 2016 followed by MLB sanctions but that avenue of talent acquisition wasn’t completely fallow. Roddery Munoz was signed for a small bonus in 2018 and has developed thanks to one of the liveliest arms in the system to the point where the Braves protected him on the 40-man roster this offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

Munoz showcased a fastball in the upper 90s in his full season debut in 2021 but poor command, a lack of a credible secondary pitch, and several nagging injuries sabotaged his development. Pushed to high-A Rome to start 2022, Munoz started to demonstrate improvement in all areas, especially with a hard slider that showed to be a good strikeout pitch. Munoz also throws a change-up to show a different look, and any chance of him remaining a starter likely lies with continued improvement in that pitch to keep left-handers honest.

The most likely path for advancement for Munoz is as a reliever, and he’s a candidate for emergency duty in Atlanta in that capacity. If the Braves want to let him keep getting innings as a starter he is likely to return to AA Mississippi, where he got a late-season taste in 2022.

20. Ignacio Alvarez, IF
Age: 20 | Bats: R
.287/.451/.394 | 148 wRC+ | 1 HR | 8 SB | 21.3% BB | 12.3% K (FCL/A)
Acquired: Drafted, 5th Round – 2022
Prior Ranking: N/A

A 5th-round find out of a California community college, “Nacho” Alvarez showed very impressive bat skills in his pro debut with a ridiculous .451 OBP and only 15 strikeouts. Drafted as a third baseman, the Braves challenged him with a move to shortstop in Augusta and he handled it with minimal difficulty. While Alvarez will likely outgrow shortstop before too long, it was still an impressive demonstration of his athleticism that he could make such a move at the end of his first pro season.

Alvarez was billed as a potential power third baseman when drafted but he spent the last part of the summer sending pitches opposite field and up the middle to spoil shifts. He used his speed to good effect as well, stealing 8 against only 1 caught. At the plate Alvarez shows a lot of rocking and movement, but ends in good hitting position and seems to recognize pitches well. Alvarez possesses a strong and accurate arm, plenty good enough for shortstop and a real weapon at third.

Alvarez could start the season back in Augusta but also could end up as Rome’s starting third baseman or shortstop with a good spring.

21. Blake Burkhalter, RHP
Age: 22
3.86 ERA | 1.49 FIP | 3 G, 1 GS | 4.2 IP | 1.93 BB/9 | 13.50 K/9 (FCL/A)
Acquired: Drafted, 2nd Round – 2022
Prior Ranking: N/A

The closer for Auburn University his junior year, Burkhalter signed a slightly underslot deal after the Braves nabbed him in the 2nd compensation round. Burkhalter got limited time in the minors in his first pro season, pitching one game each in the FCL, Augusta, and Rome, the last in the playoffs. Nevertheless, Burkhalter received a major league spring training invitation, signaling that the Braves believe he could be a quick mover up the organizational ladder.

Burkhalter is a rare closer with three above-average pitches. His four-seamer sits in the mid-90s but can run as high as 98. He pairs it with a cutter and a change-up, and when he’s on he’s tunneling all three pitches and keeping hitters off balance. With that repertoire, the Braves may use him as a starter to get him innings — he’s only logged 72 in three seasons at Auburn — but long-term he’s likely a reliever.

If Burkhalter starts the season in a rotation it will likely be in Rome, but I would not expect him to remain there all season. If he pounds the strike zone and keeps hitters off balance, he could be taking the express elevator to Atlanta.

22. Seth Keller, RHP
Age: 18
18.00 ERA | 11.83 FIP | 2 G, 1 GS | 2.0 IP | 22.50 BB/9 | 4.50 K/9 (FCL)
Acquired: Drafted, 6th Round – 2022
Prior Ranking: N/A

A two-way star at Hanover High School in Virginia, Keller was the Gatorade High School Pitcher of the Year for his state (joining fellow 2022 draftees Owen Murphy and J.R. Ritchie in attaining that honor) after becoming a starter his senior year before signed an overslot deal with Atlanta. Keller only notched two innings in his first taste of pro ball.

Keller has three pitches now, with the two off-speed pitches more impressive than a solid-average mid-90s fastball. He has a hard curve with late action as well as a split-change with fade that really could be a weapon. Keller sells the change with good arm action and a violent delivery that the Braves will likely try to help him tone down. Standing at only 5’10” and with a lower arm slot, Keller also has deception on his side though it’s a question if he will be able to stand up to a starter’s innings load.

Like Adam Shoemaker from last season, Keller is likely a developmental project for the Braves, in part because of his relative inexperience on the mound, even for a prep school draftee. The arm talent is undeniable, but they will likely be working with him to tame his delivery, probably in extended spring training to begin the year.

23. Brandol Mezquita, OF
Age: 21 | Bats: R
.268/.357/.353 | 104 wRC+ | 3 HR | 14 SB | 10.4% BB | 27.3% K (A/A+)
Acquired: International Amateur Free Agent – 2016
Prior Ranking: 28

Noted for being the only one of the 13 international signings who had their contracts nullified by MLB as a result of international sanctions to return to the Braves and remain in the organization, Mezquita finally made it to full-season ball in 2022, spending most of year in Augusta before a mid-August promotion to Rome. Along the way he showed both enough for fans to keep an eye on him and enough concerns that 2023 may end up being a pivotal year for his further development considering he’s approaching minor league free agency.

Mezquita holds his hands high and likes to drop the barrel on fastballs low and in to the pull-side, not unlike former Braves catcher William Contreras, but also does his best to shoot the ball the opposite way against pitchers working him outside. He doesn’t yet have the bat control to make this work for him consistently but when it does he can use his legs to get his fair share of doubles. Mezquita has a patient approach and ideally would be a top of the line-up candidate. In the field he has good range, but his poor instincts and jumps which makes him an average centerfielder. He has a fantastic arm however and if his bat can improve he could still prove valuable in a corner.

Mezquita faded badly down the stretch last season; now that he has a full season under his belt, and given continued physical maturation, hopefully he navigates the rigors of the season better. There’s a lot to be intrigued about Mezquita, but a lot still has to go right for him to get to the point where he’s looked at as a potential solution in Atlanta. Look for him in Rome to start the 2023 season.

24. Douglas Glod, OF
Age: 18 | Bats: R
.202/.352/.356 | 100 wRC+ | 2 HR | 3 SB | 17.2% BB | 28.1% K (AA)
Acquired: International Amateur Free Agent – 2022
Prior Ranking: 27

The 2022 signing period was the first time the Braves were able to use their full international bonus allotment since 2016 because of major league sanctions, and the team spent 71% of that bonus on two players, shortstop Diego Benitez and Glod.

For the most part it looks like the Braves got what they expected from Glod as he showed an advanced batting approach for his age. Reports are that he can hold down centerfield now and has a strong enough arm that he can easily transition to right field if necessary. He hit half of his balls in play in the air, and while he didn’t have a lot to show for it, the basis is there for solid double-digit home runs.

The question for Glod is if there’s more physical maturity to come. Reports are that at 5’10” and 185 pounds he could be close to a finished product, sizewise. If that’s true then he’s going to have to continue to refine his offensive game to get more of those fly balls to leave the park — or change his approach to become a more line-to-line hitter. Glod will likely make his stateside debut in the FCL this season.

25. Adam Shoemaker, LHP
Age: 19
6.87 ERA | 4.28 FIP | 13 G, 11 GS | 38.0 IP | 5.68 BB/9 | 8.76 K/9 (A/FCL)
Acquired: Drafted, 11th Round – 2021
Prior Ranking: 19

Shoemaker was likely always going to be a slow burn given his relative youth and with the pandemic eating up so much of his amateur development time, and the 2022 season didn’t do anything to make anyone think otherwise. The Ontario native opened the season in low-A Augusta and only pitched five innings over two starts before coming out of his third start after the first pitch with an injury. After rehabbing in extended spring training, Shoemaker remained in Florida to pitch in 10 games for the FCL Braves where he showed he was still very much a work in progress.

Step one for Shoemaker and the Braves was filling out his 6’6″ frame, and he looks to have packed on around 20 pounds over his draft weight, which will eventually help him out, but it’s a big adjustment. The Braves are betting on that physicality to bear fruit once Shoemaker learns to command his pitches. His current feel to pitch is low and despite a solid fastball that sits in the mid-90s he gets hit around a bit because he’s so often in the zone and his secondaries (slider/change-up) haven’t developed. Despite this he had stretches of dominance at the FCL level.

Shoemaker will likely get another crack at Augusta to start 2022; just slightly better command or better shape to his secondary pitches — especially the slider, which has shown flashes — could see him make a big jump in status.

Others of Note:

1. 26. Brooks Wilson, RHP: was looking like a potential 2021 major league bullpen option after being added to the 40-man roster, but a spring injury kept him out all season. After being DFA’d off the roster, was re-signed as a minor league free agent and given a major league spring training invite.
   27. Alan Rangel, RHP: similar story as Wilson’s, but without the injury. Instead Rangel was inconsistent while repeating the AA level, though his overall stuff seemed to take a step forward. Rangel finished up the season in Gwinnett, and a move to the bullpen may be a ticket to the majors if the Braves decide to take that route.
   28. Carlos Monteverde, OF: receiving the second largest bonus of the 2023 international signing period after Luis Guanipa, Monteverde will likely make his pro debut with the DSL Braves. Described as a “natural hitter” with good strike zone awareness and potential power, and a good enough arm for right field.
   29. Luke Waddell, SS: after a quick rise up to AA in his first pro season in 2021, Waddell was limited to 41 games in Mississippi due to injury. Waddell has solid bat-to-ball skills but otherwise lacks standout tools and has a utility player ceiling.
   30. Kadon Morton, OF: outstanding physical tools so far haven’t translated into sustained on-field success for the former three-sport prep star thanks to a near 35% strikeout rate. The power and speed though are enough to make you want to keep hoping he figures it out, because he can make things happen when he puts the bat on the ball.
   31. Javier Valdes, C: a bat-first catcher and team leader who made big strides in 2022. After not hitting a pro homer in two seasons after being drafted, Valdes launched 13 in 2022 over two levels. A good game-caller already, Valdes also improved his work behind the plate as well.
   32. Cade Bunnell, IF: another utility infielder option, can fill in at all four positions capably though is better at the corners. Had a tough season at the plate at high-A Rome but oddly hit very well when given an opportunity at AA Mississippi. Has better in-game power than most utility infield-types, has a three-true-outcomes approach.
   33. Austin Smith, RHP: worked as high-A Rome’s closer in 2021. Fastball/slider power combo held opposition to .209/.304/.324 batting line. Had good showing in Arizona Fall League (3.38 ERA in 10 appearances, 14 strikeouts in 10.2 innings).
   34. Tyler Collins, OF: after being drafted and given an overslot bonus as a speed-and-defense centerfielder in 2021, Collins only appeared in 4 games for the FCL Braves. With no demonstrated power to speak of, Collins will have to show that he can be a plus defender in centerfield and get on base enough for his speed to make a difference in games. That’s a narrow eye to thread.
   35. Noah Williams, OF: a 2022 late-round prep athlete, he showed good contact skills in limited time in Augusta late in the season. Projectable power and coachable.
   36. Jhon Estevez, OF: Estevez received the third highest bonus in the 2023 international class. Described as a “bat first” outfielder with strong hit tool and potential power.
   37. Didier Fuentes, RHP: reading DSL statlines is like reading tea leaves but Fuentes stood out in 2022 for the consistency of his starts, lack of walks (only 10 in 44 innings), and relative youth (he will turn 18 in June). Reportedly has four pitches, which is a lot at his age.
   38. Cody Milligan, 2B/OF: after selling out for power with Rome in 2021, Milligan remade his offensive game in 2022 to become a line-drive, on-base leadoff hitter and was very successful, finishing third in the organization in OBP. He also improved at second base to be passable at the position, but the Braves are taking a hard look at him in centerfield. Utility player upside.
   39. Tyler Tolve, C: solid defensive catcher drafted out of Kennesaw State, Tolve has enough pop in his bat to advance but too much swing-and-miss to likely be more than an organizational catcher. If he consistently can make more contact and/or raises his defensive game to the next level then I will happily eat these words.
   40. Daysbel Hernandez, RHP: looked to be on the cusp of a major league call-up after a 2021 season that saw him add a change-up to his high-90s fastball/hard slider combo, but he suffered a UCL tear pitching in the Mexican Winter League. Now 26, Hernandez needs to get back quickly on his minor league free agent walk year.
   41. David McCabe, 3B: a pure power prospect taken in the 4th round, McCabe is stretched defensively at third base, but the Braves will keep him there until he proves he can’t do it.
   42. Tanner Gordon, RHP: makes the best of fairly average stuff with good command and sequencing, but likely ceiling is organizational pitcher. Has improved at each level, which is what you want to see if there maybe something more there.
   43. Kevin Kilpatrick, OF: made a strong 2022 debut after his 17th-round selection, showing speed and contact skills in the FCL and Augusta. The Stone Mountain native is a little older at 22, could see high-A Rome soon.
   44. Stephen Paolini, OF: a super-raw prep selection in the 5th round of the 2019 draft, it was a given that Paolini would be a slow burn through the organization. The tools are still evident, including raw power and strong centerfield defense, but even repeating at Augusta in 2022 couldn’t keep his swing from being grooved and easily exploited. Now 22 years old, it’s time for Paolini to take the next step.
   45. Jared Johnson, SP: like Adam Shoemaker, Johnson is a project pitcher with good physical traits and a strong potential repertoire but with severe command challenges. Added to that however is the uncertainty of coming off a major injury that made him miss the 2022 season.
   46. Harry Owen, C: undrafted amateur free agent signing in 2022, Owen brings size (6’3″, 225 lbs) behind the plate but also a solid defensive framework. Still has room to fill out and possibly add game power to a line-to-line offensive approach.
   47. J.J. Niekro, RHP: makes the best use of average stuff by locating well, keeping the ball down and letting the defense work for him. Long reliever ceiling.
   48. Justin Dean, OF: the 2018 17th-rounder was electric at lower levels but has not been able to sustain hitting success at AA or higher. Still has speed and sneaky power, but now 26 he seems to have lost a half-a-step on defense. A guy you pull for, but he’s running out of time.
   49. Robert Gonzalez, OF: the top performer on the DSL Braves in 2021, Gonzalez demonstrated speed and power while playing both center and right field (getting 8 outfield assists as well). Just turned 18 years old, Gonzalez was largely unknown when signed, but will likely get a look stateside in 2023.
   50. Jair Casanova, OF: meanwhile, the top performer on the FCL Braves was Casanova, a 19-year-old Venezuelan signee. Casanova gets strong marks for outfield play and a strong arm, and he shows contact and patience at the plate. Casanova only hit one home run but has some game power potential as he matures.