Several OFR contributors will give their second-half predictions for the Braves. Tune back in tomorrow for their trade ideas!
2nd-Half projection: 35-33
The Braves will still be in the thick of it in September, giving the team something to build on going into the offseason.
2nd-Half projection: 34-34
This isn’t quite the time yet for this young Braves team and they fade down the stretch due to fatigue and lack of depth on the bench and in the bullpen. Kurt Suzuki is on pace to far surpass his usage from 2017 while Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Ozzie Albies and Ender Inciarte are on pace to only miss a total of ten games this season. In the bullpen, the most dependable relievers (A.J. Minter, Dan Winkler and Jesse Biddle) are all in their first injury-free seasons in years and they’ll hit a wall to some degree while Arodys Vizcaino‘s chronically balky shoulder weakens the bullpen. Think of the Milwaukee Brewers as the path to follow in the rebuild and I’ll call the same final record as the Brew Crew had last season.
2nd-Half projection: 46-22
I’m writing this on the 25th anniversary of the Atlanta-Fulton County press box fire and the acquisition of Fred McGriff which helped trigger a 51-19 run which propelled Atlanta into the playoffs, so in that spirit I’m going to predict a similarly strong run for the 2018 Braves. I don’t believe we’ll see a major trade acquisition as in 1993, but I think the team will add much needed secondary depth. I also believe we haven’t yet seen the best from some of our young position players like Ronald Acuña and Dansby Swanson. Ender Inciarte is also due for some positive regression. I also like our chances with All-Star Mike Foltynewicz and a hopefully rested and revitalized Sean Newcomb and Julio Teheran. I believe rookies Mike Soroka and Touki Toussaint are primed to make strong late-season contributions as well.
All this put together, plus the shear number of head-to-head match-ups against our NL East rivals, will put the Braves at the top of the division, perhaps by as many as 5 games come the end of the schedule.
2nd-Half projection: 37-31
While Atlanta went into the All-Star Break going 19-19 since June 1, their strong early work (32-22 through March, April, and May) has allowed them to weather the storm. Even with Atlanta has seemingly coming down to Earth a bit, they are still in an exceptional spot as the 2nd half approaches. Not taking into account potential additions, Atlanta plays 35 of their final 66 games against NL East opponents, whom they have handled extremely well en route to this surprising season. With 7 of their final 9 games against their main competitor for the NL East crown, some strong work in the last 2 weeks of the season has Atlanta finishing up 89-73, narrowly snatching the division from Philadelphia, who finishes at 88-74.
2nd-Half projection: 38-30
Our pitching is likely to solidify going into the stretch run of the season (especially since I think they’ve been holding back Folty and Newcomb on purpose a little to keep their innings from getting too high), and the team should add some much needed bullpen help. The recent offensive slump for Freeman also shouldn’t be expected to continue. I also think some of the young guys could push forward rather than tire. Swanson, for instance, is improved over last year and could take another step. Acuña got a good break after some groin-type issues and a steep learning curve in the first half, and if he makes some adjustments, watch out.
This is a very optimistic slant, but it also seems in line with the progression the team is making in the big picture of the rebuild. At the beginning of the season, I was a little more optimistic thinking this was a .500 team, so I’ll be a little more optimistic again here and make it a 90 win team.
2nd-Half projection: 34-34
Predicting the Bravos to win at a .500 clip the rest of the way feels like a cop-out, but I think it’s the likeliest outcome given their schedule. I think the club is fortunate to find themselves where they are in standings. At risk of overdoing the Georgia Sports Pessimism, I’d argue that a number of Braves are unlikely to repeat their 1st half performance. Dan Winkler has inexplicably been a lights-out reliever, Nick Markakis has been partying like it’s 2008, Ozzie Albies has been extra-base-hitting the league to its knees, and Anibal Sanchez hasn’t sported an ERA even approaching his current mark in over a decade. Not to mention that heavyweights Ryan Flaherty and Preston Tucker black magic-ed their way to some serious mojo way back in April. Further, while the youthfulness of the roster is exciting and bodes well for the future, it also foreshadows volatility as the season wears on and the league probes for ways to exploit inexperience and flaws. The club may add a player or two at the deadline to counteract some of the cold water I’m throwing on the enthusiasm in Braves Country, but so too will other contenders, and I’m not banking on the Braves doing more than upgrading the ‘pen.
I think Philly does enough at the deadline to win the division, Washington hits the gas to tie Atlanta for 2nd in the east at 86 – 76, and both finish 4 games behind Arizona for the 2nd wild card spot. Please prove me wrong, fellas. I’m jonesin’ for some postseason over here.
Leave a Reply