The Player
Kolby Allard, LHP
Age: 20
OFR Prospect Rank: 7
2018 Level: AAA Gwinnett
The Results
2018: 2.80 ERA | 3.39 FIP | 18 G, 18 GS | 109.1 IP | 7.16 K/9 | 2.72 BB/9
Minor League Career: 2.96 ERA | 3.19 FIP | 64 G, 64 GS | 353 IP | 8.24 K/9 | 2.63 BB/9
The History
Kolby Allard was a 1st-round draft pick in 2015 (14th overall) out of San Clemente HS in California. Widely considered one of the top prep arms and a potential top-5 pick, Allard’s stock dipped in March 2015 when he suffered a stress reaction in his back. There was speculation that with his draft stock dropping Allard would honor his commitment to UCLA, but he agreed to join the organization for a slightly over-slot bonus. Allard pitched six innings in his pro debut season (allowing one hit, no runs, and striking out 12 of the 20 batters he faced in the GCL), but the Braves pulled the plug after back pain resurfaced. Allard had surgery after the season, and stayed in extended spring training to continue rehab when spring training broke in 2016.
Allard’s rehab went very well, and he was cleared to pitch before the short-season leagues started, so he was sent to Rome to start his season. Allard made three starts with Rome in June. The first two had poor results as he had to deal with both rust and higher level competition. His third start, however, would be a preview of things to come as he shut out Greensboro for five innings. Demoted back to Danville as the Appalachian League season started, Allard dominated in five starts, pitching to a 1.32 ERA with 33 strikeouts and five walks in 27.1 innings pitched. Allard returned to Rome on July 22 and had a 2.61 ERA with 50 strikeouts and 16 walks in 48.1 innings pitched to finish out the regular season. Like his fellow Rome starters, Allard was lights-out in the playoffs, not allowing a run in two starts while striking out 10 and walking three in 12 innings.
An impressive spring convinced the Braves to skip Allard, along with Rome rotationmates Mike Soroka and Max Fried, directly to AA Mississippi. Allard and Soroka were two of only five teenagers in the Southern League in the last ten years (teammate Ronald Acuna would become the sixth by that May). Allard handled the promotion well, and after a five-inning scoreless start on July 7, he was sitting with a 2.88 ERA. Allard seemed to hit a wall after that where his command took a step back. Five starts later Allard seemed to have hurdled the wall, and he ended the season with some of his best baseball of the year, pitching to a 1.65 ERA in his last five starts and striking out 37 in his final 32.2 innings. Allard was named the Left-Handed Pitcher of the Year of the Southern League.
This season Allard began the year with AAA Gwinnett and has been the team’s best overall starting pitcher. In 18 starts with the Stripers, he has only failed to go at least five innings once (his first start, where he was likely on a 70 pitch limit) and only once has he allowed more than three earned runs in a start.
The Report
Allard is 6’-1” and 190 pounds, and that somewhat slight build has required him to bring more deception in his delivery. Allard utilizes a couple of different motions and pauses to disrupt hitter timing. He needs this because his 88-92 mph fastball velocity is pedestrian at best. When Allard is on he can spot that fastball at any point in the zone and off the plate as needed, then drop in his curveball at the knees. Allard also has developed a solid change-up, but it’s the command of these pitches that could potentially cause his stuff to play up.
Allard comes off the mound well and should be at least an average defender of his position. While his pick-off move isn’t in the rarefied air of Max Fried or Julio Teheran territory, Allard does a better job than most at catching baserunners napping.
What’s Next
Allard was the first pick in the first draft of the rebuild, and his promotion to Atlanta just three years later can be seen as symbolic. In practical terms however, Allard’s prospect stock has dropped as his stuff has just not developed as hoped when the Braves took him 16th in 2015. Allard’s elevation will be a test for all those who believe that craft, cunning, and control is enough for any pitcher to be successful, even without a blazing fastball or a huge swing-and-miss secondary pitch.
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