Other than the Chicago Cubs, no team has guaranteed more payroll to free agents this offseason than the Philadelphia Phillies, committing to right-handers Jake Arrieta, Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter, and first baseman Carlos Santana a combined total of $169.25 million.
This spending spree puts an emphatic close to a rebuild effort that the Phillies started before the 2015 season, at roughly the same time the Atlanta Braves began their rebuild. Late last year, I wrote four posts on the rebuild efforts of the Kansas City Royals, Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Chicago Cubs. This will be a miniature version of those case studies, focusing on the different tracks that the Phillies and Braves have taken over the last three years, including this offseason, but with no conclusion since we still have to look forward to the results of these two rebuilds.
A Reluctant Rebuild
The Phillies won the World Series in 2008 with a team meticulously assembled by legendary general manager Pat Gillick. It was built around a powerful line-up of players all hitting their prime simultaneously: first baseman Ryan Howard, second baseman Chase Utley, shortstop Jimmy Rollins, catcher Carlos Ruiz, outfielders Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth, and staff ace Cole Hamels all started the 2008 campaign between the ages of 27 and 29, and all had been good to great players leading up to the season. The offense bludgeoned their opponents, scoring 799 runs during the season, good for second in the National League and outscoring opponents by over 130 runs over the course of the season.
Fast forward to the end of the 2014 season, and that same core was largely intact, held to the team by extravagant contract extensions. Combined with expensive free agent signings to try to keep the team afloat, and the Phillies had the third highest payroll in the major leagues. After winning a franchise record 102 games in 2011 (and losing in the division round of the playoffs), the team had not had a winning season, and that third highest major league payroll produced a 73-89 record in 2014.
For years, Gillick and his hand-picked successor as general manager Ruben Amaro. Jr. resisted the idea of having an Astros or Cubs-style tear-down and rebuild, but Gillick finally bent to the inevitable and announced that the team would be rebuilding in that offseason.
Despite the announcement, the initial steps of the rebuild were tentative. The Phillies did trade Rollins and $10 million owed on his $11 million contract to the Dodgers in exchange for two low-level relievers and outfielder Marlon Byrd and $4 million to cover half of his contract to the Reds for right-hander Ben Lively. But while Lively has turned into an interesting player, these moves were more about trying to clear some payroll.
The Cole Hamels Trade and a New Front Office
It took the hiring of longtime major league executive Andy MacPhail in June of 2015 to really kickstart the rebuild. At the trading deadline the team made it’s first significant trade for young talent, and it was a doozy. Cole Hamels had been a mainstay in the Phillies rotation since his rookie year in 2006 and had long been the most consistent pitcher on the Phillies staff. From 2008-2015 he never started fewer than 30 games and averaged 212 innings a season with a 3.24 ERA/3.41 FIP. After several years of trade speculation, the 31-year-old found himself heading to the Rangers for a prospect package that included catcher Jorge Alfaro, right-handers Jerad Eickhoff, Jake Thompson and Alec Asher, and outfielder Nick Williams.
The Phillies would also send right-handed closer Jonathan Papelbon to the Nationals for righty Nick Pivetta, and the team bid goodbye to mainstay Chase Utley shortly after the deadline, sending him to the Dodgers for outfielder Darnell Sweeney and prospect John Richy.
The Hamels trade was arguably the best move of GM Ruben Amaro, Jr.’s career, but it wasn’t enough to save his job, and he was dismissed in September. MacPhail replaced Amaro with his former Orioles lieutenant Matt Klentak, who had been an assistant GM for the Angels. The two men immediately started on owener John Middleton’s first directive, to build out an analytics department. Amaro had been openly dismissive of the use of advanced analytics in front offices, which opened him up to ridicule when he repeatedly overpaid for aging talent.
Comparing the Braves and the Phillies
While technically the Braves and the Phillies started their rebuilds at the same time, the offseason before the 2015 season, the Braves had a significant head start in a number of areas.
Major league assets: Within one year, the Braves were able to flip most of their young major league talent that had not yet attained significant paydays into young talent. Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Evan Gattis, Craig Kimbrel, Alex Wood, Shelby Miller, and Andrelton Simmons would all be turned into young talent, draft picks, international signing bonus pools, or salary relief that was largely reinvested into acquiring more young talent. While each individual trade can be criticized for the return to the Braves (especially the Wood and Simmons trades), taken in aggregate the trades have greatly reinforced the Braves minor league system to the point that it is still widely regarded as the best collection of prospects today, even after the sanctions imposed by MLB in the wake of the discovery of serious international amateur free agency rule violations.
The Phillies got a very good return from the Hamels deal and the 2016 trade of reliever Ken Giles to the Astros. Other smaller trades of players like Jimmy Rollins, Marlon Byrd, and Jonathan Papelbon netted players that are now major league building blocks, but by and large the Phillies simply were not able to turn their major league assets into future assets at the same exchange rate that Atlanta was able to achieve.
Minor league assets: While the Braves farm system at the start of the rebuild was perceived as one of the worst in the majors at the conclusion of the 2014 season, several key minor leaguers were already part of he organization, most notably infielder Ozzie Albies, who had just completed his first pro season, and outfielder Ronald Acuña, who had just signed that summer and had not played. Infielder Johan Camargo was a spindly, glove-first shortstop, while pitchers Lucas Sims and Max Povse (who would later be flipped as part of the trade for catcher Alex Jackson) were toiling the low minor leagues.
The Phillies had a slightly higher regarded system, but it was built mostly on three prospects. Shortstop J.P. Crawford was just about to turn 20 years only and move up to AA, third baseman Maikel Franco had just gotten his first taste of big league ball, and first round draft pick RHP Aaron Nola headlined the prospect class of 2014, but none of the other prospects in most rankings that Philadelphia started out their rebuild with are showing that they will provide major league value. Two under-the-radar minor leaguers however included 5th-round 2014 pick Rhys Hoskins and future closer Hector Neris, who had been an international signing out of the Dominican Republic.
Financial muscle: Despite the advantages the Braves may have had coming out of the blocks of their respective rebuilds, they may be completely off-set by the financial resources the Phillies can bring to bear.
The main Braves disadvantage is their local television broadcast contract, signed before Time Warner transferred ownership of the club to Liberty Media, and locking the team through 2027 and only providing the club between $10-20 million in revenue a season. By contrast, the Phillies were able to renew their local television contract in 2014 for 25 years for a massive $2.5 billion, or $100 million a season.
In facilities the Phillies also had a head start, with Citizen Bank Park having opened in 2004, while the Braves started the rebuild in Turner Field. Citizen Bank Park has been a hit with Philadelphia fans, and drew over 3 million fans every year from 2007-2013. While the Braves have since made their own move into a new facility, SunTrust Park, continued debt payments and the build-out of the mixed-use commercial/residential area The Battery will provide a debt drag on the organization for at least the 2018 season. Long term the Braves should have a financial advantage in the facilities area, but for the time being the Phillies have more financial resources to draw form.
The 2018 Philadelphia Phillies
And so we come to 2018, and the Phillies are putting those resources to work. After stripping the payroll from a height of $176 million in 2014 down to $87 million last season, the Phillies have spent big in the 2018 free agent market to end the rebuild and try to put a contender on the field.
Phillies Projected Starters and Major Players
Catcher: Jorge Alfaro, acquired in trade for Cole Hamels
First Base: Carlos Santana, 2018 free agent signing
Second Base: Cesar Hernandez, pre-rebuild holdover
Third Base: Maikel Franco, pre-rebuild holdover
Shortstop: J.P. Crawford, pre-rebuild holdover
Left Field: Rhys Hoskins, 2014 draft pick
Center Field: Odubel Herrera, Rule V draft pick
Right Field: Nick Williams, acquired in trade for Cole Hamels
Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola, 2014 draft pick
Starting Pitcher: Jake Arrieta, 2018 free agent signing
Starting Pitcher: Vince Velasquez, acquired in trade for Ken Giles
Starting Pitcher: Nick Pivetta, acquired in trade for Jonathan Papelbon
Starting Pitcher: Ben Lively, acquired in trade for Marlon Byrd
High-leverage Reliever: Hector Neris, international amateur free agent
High-leverage Reliever: Tommy Hunter, 2018 free agent signing
High-leverage Reliever: Pat Neshek, 2018 free agent signing
- Despite the infusion of talent from free agency, Fangraphs.com projects the Phillies to finish with a 75-87 record, only a few games ahead of the Braves, projected at 72-90.
- The signing of Santana, while immediately strengthening the offense, hurts the defense quite a bit by pushing Hoskins to left field.
- Arrita’s arrival will only stem the tide for at least the first couple months of the season, as projected third starter Jerad Eickhoff is now expected to miss time with a lat strain.
- After a good start to his major league career in 2015, Franco’s offensive performance has significantly declined every year since, and may have to fend off a challenge by prospect Scott Kingery.
- For Alfaro and Crawford, expected to be major pieces of the new core, this will be their first major league Opening Day. Both are talented players, but both also have holes in their offensive game that will need to be overcome.
In short, while I do think the Phillies will be better than that 75-87 FanGraphs projection, I do not think they will be a contender in 2018.
However, as that young core becomes more experienced and is joined in the majors by top prospects like Kingery, right-hander Sixto Sanchez, and outfielder Adam Haseley, the Phillies have significant young talent still percolating. The Phillies will start the 2018 season with a payroll of around $95 million, and the team is likely to spend big in the 2019 free agent class; in fact, ownership indicates that if the right players are available, they would happily return to being a top-5 payroll team in baseball in order to go back to being a regular playoff contender.
Quite frankly, the Braves will not play in that payroll range. Given a larger and overall more talented minor league crop of prospects might mean they won’t have to however. While the Phillies still have handful of well-thought-of prospects remaining in their system, the Braves have an overwhelming tide of talent. Even with the likely ensconcing of Albies, Acuña , Dansby Swanson, Luiz Gohara, and Mike Soroka as core members of the team in 2018, the Braves still have Kyle Wright, Kolby Allard, Austin Riley, Alex Jackson, Cristian Pache, Touki Toussaint, Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, et al all likely to make their major league ETAs within 24 months. The Braves have simply more successfully stacked the deck of likely good outcomes from their rebuild, and while the Braves will be unable to spend in the same realm as Philadelphia, the clearing of dead contracts and a possibly higher payroll as the revenues from the SunTrust Park/Battery facilities are more utilized toward baseball operations, there is an excellent chance that of the two teams, the Atlanta rebuild will bear more fruit over the next decade.
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