Outfield Fly Rule

Sunday Braves Farm Report, 5/13/2018

May 13, 2018 Andy Harris Atlanta Braves 0

RHP Kyle Muller is in this week’s Prospect Spotlight. (Chris Robertson /KZoneImages)

(OFR writers Matt Chrietzberg, and Dylan Short also contributed to this article)

Happy Mother’s Day, and welcome to the Braves Farm Report, where we will take a look at the Braves farm system and look at trends and players that seem interesting, and give first hand accounts of what we’re seeing down on the farm. This week we have a firsthand report from Mississippi for a Touki Toussaint start, the prospect spotlight shines on recently promoted left-handed Kyle Muller, and we answer the mailbag!

Playing Hooky To Go See Touki
– by Matt Chrietzberg

I took off work on Wednesday to go see a morning contest between the M-Braves and the Mobile BayBears, mainly to get another up-close look at Touki Toussaint while he’s still at AA.

This game was set up to be a pitching duel between Toussaint and Los Angeles Angels #8 prospect, right-hander Griffin Canning.  This battle didn’t disappoint, as Canning only allowed one earned run on four hits with nine strikeouts in 4.2 innings.  Touki had a good start (6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R/ER, 4 BB, 5 K) which could have been even better if not for an off-day from the home-plate umpire, who seemed to have trouble with balls and strikes for both sides.  Touki probably should have had 2-3 more strikeouts and two fewer walks, which ran up his pitch count to 98 (60 strikes) during his outing.  On one occasion, catcher Jonathan Morales popped up out of his crouch to throw the ball down to third base after a supposed strikeout, only to have it called a ball.

Here are some videos of three strikeouts I took while at the game, on three different types of Touki pitches:

The game didn’t end as planned with a 4-2 loss, as closer Jacob Webb gave up a three-run homer in the ninth inning to the BayBears’ Jose Rojas that may still be rolling towards the Cracker Barrel in Pearl.  Overall, it was a good showcase for Touki Toussaint to show how far he has come with his progression through the system and gave a glimpse of what he can accomplish in the future.

Prospect Spotlight: Kyle Muller
– by Dylan Short

One of four highly-regarded pitchers taken in Day One of the 2016 draft, Muller was selected four picks behind rotation-mate Joey Wentz at number 44 overall and was signed to a nice over-slot bonus of 2.5 million. Muller was the 2015-2016 Gatorade Player of the Year, given to the top high school player in the country, and he was the second top-25 talent Atlanta was able to nab far later in the draft than expected after a season that saw him post a Texas record 24 consecutive strikeouts (21 of them in a single game) to go along with a tidy .396 batting average with 15 long balls. Standing 6’6 and 230 pounds with a fastball to match, it’s no wonder why Scouting Director Brian Bridges was ecstatic to get Muller in a Braves uniform.

Seemingly forgotten in the rapid rise of fellow 2016 draftees Wentz, Ian Anderson, and the revelatory Bryse Wilson, Muller “fell behind” in the race up the minor league ranks. Lost in the shuffle of the glut of high profile arms in Atlanta’s system, it’s easy to forget that Muller is still an extremely young and promising prospect with tantalizing upside. While the meteoric rises of Mike Soroka, Luiz Gohara, and Kolby Allard make jumping multiple levels seem normal, Muller remains very young for his level of competion (an average of 3 years younger than typical A+ peers). After showing significant improvements over the offseason, as well as in Rome to start the season, it appears Muller is ready to throw his hat into the ring as a player to take notice of.

More of a thrower than a pitcher coming out of high school, there were severe questions as to whether or not Muller would be able to remain in the rotation long term. With a more simplified delivery and a dedication to solidifying his slider, those questions no longer linger around the big lefty. In addition to adding a couple ticks onto his already impressive fastball, Muller has ditched the exaggerated over the top delivery in favor of a simpler 3/4 arm slot that should add more deception into his delivery while also accentuating his developing offspeed pitches.

While the new arm slot is promising, Muller still remains very raw from a pitching perspective. His surface stats look tantalizing- a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio and a GB ratio over 50% this season- his underlying stats show a player still with a ways to go before being ready to challenge for top-5 status. His 2.30 ERA at Rome looks impressive, but came along with a less inspiring 4.30 FIP that points to a fair bit of luck and a good defense behind him. In addition to the FIP, Muller still needs to iron out his mechanics, as his swing leg (the follow through leg for a pitcher) is inconsistent in its aggressiveness and placement. If left uncorrected, this flaw will prevent him from consistent placement of his pitches and could provide an easy tell as he continues to face more advanced competition.

In an age of instant gratification, and a system that has seemed to churn out high level prospects in no time flat, it’s important to view Muller with patience. He’s more Sean Newcomb than Mike Soroka, a powerful guy who to this point has been able to get by purely on latent talent than advanced feel. Conversely, take your time and be patient with a guy like Muller and the rewards could be sweet indeed; look no further than our own Sean Newcomb.

Life on the Farm

ROME: Rome went 4-3 on the week while hosting division rival Augusta for a four game set. Rome took three of four from the GreenJackets to claim a share of first place in the SAL South Division.

There were several strong offensive performers this week, but none shone brighter than outfielder Justin Smith, who was just promoted from extended spring training on May 1. Whatever he was working on in Orlando is playing dividends now as he hit .375/.444/.813 on the week with two home runs while also playing a strong right field. Fellow outfielders Isranel Wilson and Jefrey Ramos broke out of early season slumps as well. Third baseman Jean Carlos Encarnacion is also riding a nine-game hitting streak.

Outfielder Drew Waters come off the DL this week as well but struggled, striking out 11 times in 22 plate appearances this week.

Starting pitcher Huascar Ynoa put together his best start of the season Wednesday against Augusta, allowing only one unearned run in five innings. Right-hander Alan Rangel on the other hand had an uncharacteristically poor start against the same team, allowing five runs in four innings on the back of 4 walks allowed. Any chance of a Rome comeback in that game was undone by reliever Tanner Allison, who had a nightmare appearance, allowing 10 runs on 7 hits and two walks while only retiring two batters.

FLORIDA: The Frogs had a three-game win streak in the middle of the week to go 3-4, still bringing up the rear of the FSL North Division.

The highlights of the week was a return to form or starting pitcher Jeremy Walker, who pitched his best start of the season this year, throwing 6 shutout innings and combining with relievers Thomas Burrows and Justin Kelly in a 1-0 win over St. Lucie. Right-hander Ian Anderson contributed two solid starts this week, going seven innings in both and allowing a combined total of 2 runs, 6 hits, and 6 walks while striking out 14 batters.

Of concern however is left-hander Joey Wentz, who tossed his second clunker of the season, managing only five outs against Tampa while allowing 6 walks and 5 runs (more on Wentz in the mailbag section).

The offense was paced by newcomer Taylor Murphy, a minor league free agent signee, who slashed .333/.462/.714 and socked his first home run of the season. Catcher Lucas Herbert, who had been having a tough time at the plate all season, caught fire this week, batting .318/.348/.591 with two home runs.

MISSISSIPPI: The post-Austin Riley era began for the M-Braves this week and the offense showed it, scoring only 20 runs this week in seven games, leading to another 3-4 weekly record.  The offense was led this week by leadoff hitter OF Michael Reed, who had a .400/.516/.640 line while driving in three and scoring five runs.  C Alex Jackson had two good games to bookend the week but didn’t have any hits in the five games in-between to settle at a .192/.276/.269 line for the week.

The M-Braves got some very good starting pitching performances for the week from:

  •  Kyle Wright, who had one so-so start on Monday and a dominant one on Saturday (7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 75 game score)
  •  Bryse Wilson, who had a good initial AA start (5 IP, 5 H, 3 R/ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR)
  •  Touki Toussaint (6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R/ER, 4 BB, 5 K)
  •  Wes Parsons, who now leads the Southern League in ERA, had another dominating start this week (7 IP, 4 H, 0 R/ER, 0 BB, 9 K)   

GWINNETT: The Stripers went 3-4 on the week despite getting solid starting pitching all week. Lucas Sims, Kolby Allard, and Andres Santiago each pitched a start of at least six innings and allowed only one run apiece. Matt Wisler also chipped in with two quality starts. Lefty Max Fried finally returned to the Stripers rotation and had a tough outing, allowing three runs in four innings.

Third baseman Austin Riley joined the team on Monday and has hit .250/.308/.292 with a double in his first AAA action. Overall there was no standout offensive performer for Gwinnett, though outfielder Peter Bourjos hit a grand slam on Thursday against Charlotte.

POSITION PLAYER of the WEEK:

OFR Position Player of the Week, Rome OF Justin Smith. (via Instagram)

PITCHER of the WEEK:

OFR Pitcher of the Week, Mississippi RHP Wes Parsons. (MiLB)

Transaction Round-Up

5/5/2018: C Tanner Murphy traded to the San Francisco Giants organization

Once the top Braves catching prospect after Christian Bethancourt fizzled out, the 23-year-old Murphy was overwhelmed by the surge in catching talent the organization initiated during the course of the rebuild. Murphy is a solid pitch-and-catch guy with a streaky bat, and perhaps no other player in the organization needed a change of scenery more. Murphy was a 4th-round pick by Atlanta in 2014.

5/6/2018: OF Anfernee Seymour released from Florida

Seymour was hanging around the back-end of some Braves top-30 prospect lists, but his star had faded after failing to hit following a mid-season promotion to advanced-A Florida in 2017. That trend continued and the Braves elected to part ways with the former Marlins 7th-rounder. Seymour was acquired from Miami for left-handed reliever Hunter Cervenka back in 2016, and Seymour re-signed with the Marlins organization a few days after his release by the Braves. Seymour has 80-grade speed, but is the embodiment of the age old baseball cliché “you can’t steal first base”.

5/7/2018: 3B Austin Riley promoted to AAA Gwinnett from AA Mississippi

A well-deserved promotion for the Braves top position player prospect after Ronald Acuña.

5/8/2018: RHP Bryse Wilson promoted to AA Mississippi from A+ Florida
5/8/2018: LHP Kyle Muller promoted to A+ Florida from A Rome

After only five starts and an 0.34 ERA, Wilson clearly was ready for a new challenge. Muller’s promotion wasn’t quite so obvious, as Dylan’s prospect spotlight above shows Muller still has plenty to work on, but he’ll have the opportunity to do so in the humidity of Kissemmee.

5/8/2018: 1B/C Justin Morhardt released from the GCL Braves

The Braves drafted Morhardt last year as a catcher, but his large, ungainly frame likely made that an unlikely proposition in the long term, and he didn’t profile as a strong enough offensive contributor for first base.

5/8/2018: OF Brandol Mezquita signed as an international free agent, assigned to the DSL Braves

Mezquita was one of the international prospects that were made free agents under MLB sanctions in November. Under the terms of the sanctions, the Braves were not allowed to resign any of the players until after May 1, and could not offer any additional signing bonus. Mezquita was one of only two unsigned players from that group. Mezquita originally signed for a $300,000 signing bonus early in the current signing period. Mezquita reportedly has a strong arm and could play any outfield position, and reportedly is a potential power bat, though at age 17 he’s very raw and has yet to play in a professional game.

5/9/2018: IF Christian Colon released from Gwinnett

Colon hit pretty much as he always has done, poorly. Limited to pretty much only second base, the acquisition of veteran infielder Philip Gosselin last week made Colon superfluous.

5/11/2018: LHP Zach Rice released from Danville

Rice was a project pick out of North Carolina in 2017. Rice had actually been cut from his collegiate team due to lack of control, and those issues persisted in his time with the Braves culminating in 5 walks allowed in a little over four innings of work this season with the Fire Frogs.

5/12/2018: RHP Wes Parsons promoted to AAA Gwinnett from AA Mississippi
5/12/2018: RHP Andres Santiago transferred to AA Mississippi from AAA Gwinnett

Performance-wise, Parsons has been Mississippi’s best starting pitcher and rightly earned his promotion. He should slot into the Stripers rotation with Allard, Fried, Wisler, and Sims. As for Santiago, this was actually his third transaction this week (and seventh of the year), the first two being a paper move to Mississippi and back to Gwinnett the next day. This time Santiago will likely actually report and continue his role as Braves minor league gunslinger.

Mailbag Q&A

Thanks to members of the Outfield Fly Rule Facebook group and Twitter for questions!

Q: If Riley keeps up his pace, what are the chances he’s a September call up? – T. Childers

A: If Riley establishes over the next month or so that he can hit AAA pitching with authority, I don’t believe the Braves will hesitate to call him up if the need arises. I know some fans think the need is already here, especially after Jose Bautista’s costly error last night and Ryan Flaherty’s offense coming back in line with career norms, but like Soroka I don’t believe the team will want to send Riley back down once he’s up. They will want to make sure he’s ready. Personally, I’ve mentally circled August 1 as a possibility.

Q: Does Derian Cruz have a realistic chance to improve enough to someday be mentioned with Pache? Should he remain a switch-hitter? – G. Carroll

A: Cruz is athletic and coachable, which gives him a fighting chance to have a breakthrough. He’s shown flashes over the first five weeks of the minor league season with Rome to give some hope. He seems much more comfortable at second base and in the field in general. He’s also stinging the ball a lot more than he did last season. That said, he’s still got a long way to go before he’s put anywhere near the prospect level that Cristian Pache is at. As for switch-hitting, the spits this season are notably favoring him as a right-handed hitter, but he hadn’t had appreciable splits before. I don’t see a reason to force him to change at this point. He’s only 19 years old, and with the Atlanta infield pretty much set for a while the Braves can afford to be patient.

Q: Who is the next wave of pitchers that will hit Atlanta? – D. Meadows

A: Any of Allard, Toussaint, and Wright (likely in that order) could possibly make their debuts at some point in 2018, though there’s not necessarily a reason to push them now that Newcomb and Soroka are firmly ensconced in the rotation, with Gohara and Fried on stand-by.

Q: Is there a lack of offensive talent in the lower minor leagues? Are we seeing that we were really hurt by losing the international players offensively? -P. Fisk

A: There’s no way of getting around losing 13 prospects at the stroke of a pen, but it’s telling that none of the 13 have played affiliate baseball so far in 2018. That will obviously change once short-season affiliates start up next month, but it seems unlikely that any of them would started the season in Rome. Even without those 13, there’s lots to like about the Rome position players. Danville may have a tough time, but a lot will depend on the draft. In the end, the only place I think the team will be hurt is in the middle infield, and the Braves have time to fill that gap in other ways.

Q. What’re your thoughts on Kyle Wright so far this year? – P. Mollette

A: I got several questions about Kyle Wright, so consider this a nice catch-all. Folks seem to be concerned about his overall performance, though the questions did come in before his 7 shutout innings pitched Saturday night. My observation is that Wright is working on some things, especially command of his fastball and change-up, and that working on that means he may not be pitching optimally to batters. The minor leagues are for development, and sometimes the stat line doesn’t represent what a player could do if he was more concerned with performance. That said, the command does seem to come-and-go, largely a result of inconsistent mechanics (release point, landing). He’s still a work-in-progress, and the Braves have no incentive to rush him (sounds like a recurring theme today).

Q: Joey Wentz. Should we be concerned? – F. Gato, Jr.

A: As mentioned above, Wentz had a second uncharacteristically shaky start this week.  Jason Woodell of Prospects1500 was at the game and indicated that:

That’s obviously not great, but it’s only a reason for concern if it continues. Wentz’s mechanics were usually very good with Rome last season, and nothing Jason mentions sounds like it can’t be fixed.

Q: Yellow soybeans here in North Carolina were 18 cents lower last week. Prices were 9.83-10.13 at the processors, 9.48-9.95 at the feed mills, and mostly 9.43-9.55 at the elevators. Do you think this is a sign of bad things to come? Or can we see soybean prices back to normal by June? – J. Brown

A: Soybeans don’t matter.

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