19 games is a small sample size. Hell, 40 games is a small sample size. I understand this. But Ronald Acuña Jr’s major league debut was so anticipated, it’s hard to take the measured, calm approach. I couldn’t even make it 20 games into his career before I wrote something about him, so here you go.
There are no big picture trends that allow us to say anything definitive yet about Acuña. But, with the caveat in place of, “Yes, mom, we know it’s early”, let’s find some things we can definitively say about his career so far.
1. Ronald Acuña has been the hardest hitter on the team
His average exit velo of 93.8 ranks 12th in the game and 1st among the Braves. He has the hardest hit single ball of the year among Braves hitters (114 mph). And the direction doesn’t matter, either. Even if you whittle it down to the type of batted ball, Acuña leads the Braves in average velo on both line drives and ground balls. 52% of his batted balls have been over 95mph – that unsurprisingly leads the team.
That wasn’t even his hardest hit ball this year.
2. Ronald Acuña hasn’t been overly lucky
This goes hand in hand with #1. Because he blisters the ball so regularly, his early success (.263/.341/.500) doesn’t appear to be a mirage. Yes, his .327 BABIP is higher than the average player’s, but that can be a consistent byproduct of hitting the ball hard. MLB’s Statcast site, Baseball Savant, calculates Expected Slugging Percentage, which is based on the speed and angle at which players hit pitches. Acuña’s xSLG is .494, which isn’t too far off his actual SLG of .500. In short, he has earned his statline.
3. Ronald Acuña is REALLY fast
His sprint speed of 29.8 ft/s ranks 6th in the league and 1st among left fielders. He’s 2/3 in stolen base attempts, and he has taken extra bases 3 of the 4 times he’s been on 1st or 2nd when another player singled. We always knew the kid had wheels, but it’s nice to see it manifest in games.
4. Ronald Acuña likes offspeed and breaking pitches
Of Acuña’s 4 major league home runs, only one – last night’s off Carl Edwards – has come on a fastball. One, a Homer Bailey slider that didn’t break, which you saw in GIF form above, acted as something of an offspeed pitch, a flat changeup that hung in the middle of the zone.
Check out the others:
A Jason Vargas circle-change:
A Blake Snell slider:
And here’s the Edwards fastball:
It’s nice to see him launch a fastball, as fastballs have given him some relative trouble so far. Perhaps last night is an indication that won’t be the case for long.
5. Ronald Acuña is one of the better left fielders in baseball
Make no mistake – the Braves are playing the right player in center. Ender Inciarte remains one of the game’s best center fielders, tied for 3rd in Outs Above Average, making catches on 93% of plays the average CF would register 88% on. Inciarte is where he should be.
Acuña has been impressive in LF. Acuña has a catch rate of 93% on a set of fielding chances the average LF would catch 90% on. The Savant leaderboards have Acuña at 1 out above average. I’m guessing we all know exactly which out that was, but in case you don’t, or want to see it again:
In less than 20 games, Ronald Acuña Jr has already given Braves fans plenty to be excited about. The talent is real, and it’s routinely on display every night. There are still things he can do to improve his game, like chase fewer pitches outside the zone, and there are some minor concerns as far as exploitable weaknesses (teams are starting to shift against him, and it’s working). But enjoy the ride – Atlanta has one of baseball’s most exciting young players in LF on a nightly basis. Do yourself a favor and go see him when you can.
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