At the time of this writing, the New York Mets are in fourth place in the NL East with a 33-49 record, 15 games back of the Braves and only a half game ahead of the last place Miami Marlins, a team that started a rebuild this offseason.
This is the second consecutive disappointing season for the Mets, who made a World Series appearance in 2015 and went to the National League Wild Card game in 2016. As with last year, injuries are the predominant problem, with key contributors like outfielders Yoenis Cespedes and Juan Lagares, catcher Travis d’Arnaud, starting pitchers Noah Syndergaard and Jason Vargas, and reliever AJ Ramos all missing significant amounts of playing time.
Against this backdrop, it’s no surprise that assistant general manager John Ricco recently told the press that “everything has to be on the table” this trading deadline, including trading their two aces, right-handers Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard.
OFR ccollegue, co-host of the Platinum Sombrero podcast, and 680 The Fan contributor Dylan Short is an enthusiastic supporter of the Braves attempting to trade for deGrom, and it’s easy to see why. Since the start of the 2016 season, deGrom has thrown 450.2 innings to a 2.96 ERA, and depending on what flavor of WAR you want to use he’s been either the fifth or sixth most valuable pitcher in baseball during that time. This season he’s stepped his game up even higher, pitching to a 1.69 ERA in 101.1 innings.
deGrom would be that elusive “true” ace that fans have been keen for the Braves to acquire.
Here is a partial transcript of a conversation between Dylan and myself recently discussing Jacob deGrom and some other possible Mets trade targets.
JACOB deGROM
DYLAN: Andy, you’ll be happy to know Jim Callis drew up almost our exact trade [as a guest on The Platinum Sombrero] when discussing what it would take deGrom. Wright, Gohara, Pache, and Waters.
ANDY: Ouch, Pache and Waters? I think I’d try hard to keep one or the other.
DYLAN: Waters means nothing to me if he’s the throw in for deGrom. I’d like to keep one of them, but I ain’t holding that deal up on account of Waters. . DeGrom is short list elite.
ANDY: I just wouldn’t want to trade both stud centerfielders if we can help it.
DYLAN: Izzy [Wilson] is going to make Waters obsolete. BELIEVE IT. Just think of it this way: deGrom, Soroka. Newk, Folty, Allard.
ANDY: I’d try Wright, Allard, Wentz, Waters, Encarnacion. Then I can think of it this way: deGrom, Soroka, Newk, Folty, Touki.
DYLAN: Andy, I dont think they go for 2 position prospects 3 years away. If it isn’t Pache, it’ll have to be Riley. And I’m more OK with losing potential uber-stud Pache than Riley.
ANDY: Maybe we can include Dustin Peterson. Unlike the current Mets outfielders, he can at least catch the ball. But more and more, I coming around to the realization that I don’t want the Mets to rebuild. I want them to drown and suck for 20 years.
DYLAN: They don’t deserve deGrom. He deserves to go to a team that will win. OUR TEAM.
ANDY: We can sign him for 2020.
DYLAN: Wright. Allard. Touki. Fried. Anderson. Wentz. Wilson. Stewart. Davidson. Newk. Folty. Gohara. That’s more than 2 rotations full.
ANDY: The question isn’t “should we trade prospects”, Dylan. The answer is yes, depending on the deal. The question is “should we trade these particular prospects”. They aren’t all created equal.
DYLAN: True, but the counter-point is, how realistic is it that these prospects become anything close to what deGrom already is? And that answer is “not very realistic at all”. So when you go up against the Kershaws, Scherzers, Verlanders, Klubers, Bumgarners of the world you need someone that can go toe to toe with them.
ANDY: Right, but once you trade a prospect, you can’t trade him again. Each trade cuts off another avenue to potentially make your team better.
DYLAN: How many top pitching prospects become those guys?
ANDY: I’d offer Wright, Gohara, Cumberland, and Waters. That’s two 50/60 FV studs, a 50 FV catcher, and a 50 FV outfielder for two years of an ace pitcher. And if the Mets didn’t take that, I will be delighted to watch them suck forever.
DYLAN: My point is true aces are unicorns. Just because someone has a high ranking or gets taken in the 1st round doesn’t mean they will b, or should be expected to become an ace. Teheran was expected by everyone to be an ace. I think we can all agree that didn’t happen.
ANDY: It doesn’t happen 100x more often than it does, yes. Which is why assuming any pitching prospect becomes an “ace” is dumb.
DYLAN: Exactly my point. Which is why it doesn’t bother me to trade pitching prospects for a proven unicorn.
ANDY: But my objection wasn’t over pitching prospects. It was about including both Pache and Waters in the same deal.
DYLAN: Waters to me is secondary. I’m more leery of giving up Pache than Waters. If I’m willing to give Pache, Waters doesn’t faze me. Waters MAY develop into an above average player. Pache most likely will.
ANDY: Right. And having both is a stacked deck. I lose all my cards dealing both. (BAM, sticks the metaphor.)
DYLAN: And yet you still have Jenista, Wilson, Ramos, Encarnacion (who I fully expect will get moved to the outfield since Riley will be at 3rd), plus Peterson.
ANDY: Dylan, I don’t think you even believe what you just typed. I’d trade Pache and any one of those guys over Waters. Or Waters and any two of those guys over Pache.
DYLAN: I fully do. Waters is still incredibly raw. Expecting him to hit his ceiling the same way you expect Pache to isn’t the same realm.
ANDY: I never expect anyone to hit their ceiling.
DYLAN: Let’s play this out: what does Waters play if you trade Pache?
ANDY: You mean position? I don’t understand.
DYLAN: He isn’t playing centerfield, he’s playing a corner. So now you ask, is the bat a glaring improvement over some of the other names?
ANDY: Why would he move to a corner?
DYLAN: Because he isn’t as good a fielder as Acuña.
ANDY: I don’t think Acuña will be a centerfielder long term. He’s going to bulk up more than Waters will.
DYLAN: I’d be willing to take that bet. Waters isn’t the same caliber defender, doesn’t have the same arm, doesn’t have the same instincts as Acuña. If [Houston’s George] Springer can play centerfield, I see no reason Acuña will have to move.
ANDY: I disagree very much about instincts. If Waters and Acuña are on the same team in four years, Waters is in centerfield.
DYLAN: Andy, you’re the one who was slamming waters all last season because of how raw he is and how much his route running needed work. How did we flip flop positions so quickly?
ANDY: Because he was 18 and I understand the concept of projection? I was reporting what I was seeing, that’s not the same as expecting he’d never improve. And he has. I mean, Acuña is a major-leaguer now and his route running still needs work.
DYLAN: He’s still nothing but projection. He’s having a great season. In Rome. If every major-leaguer who has worked with Acuña says hes a centerfielder, I believe them.
ANDY: Yes Dylan, that’s why Waters is still a prospect. That’s why I don’t value him more than many, many other prospects. It doesn’t mean I’m willing to put him and Pache in the same trade. I want at least a shot at developing a solid major league centerfielder after Acuña if Pache is traded. He’s my best shot at that. Braves payroll won’t suddenly get to Big Boy levels in 5 years. If the Braves don’t keep supplementing the roster with low-cost players, this window will shut fast.
DYLAN: And projectable outfield prospects are a dime a dozen in today’s game.
ANDY: Yes, it’s so easy the Braves didn’t develop one from 1997-2010.
DYLAN: Again, you’re assuming Waters develops. It’s not like Atlanta didn’t draft projectable outfielders in all that time.
ANDY: None of them have Waters upside.
DYLAN: None of who? Because Izzy has every bit as much upside. Waters is ahead of him developmentally, but Izzy has just as much, if not more, upside.
ANDY: We didn’t draft Izzy.
DYLAN: Ok, then let me say it like this: there’s nothing Waters does that you cant find in any draft.
ANDY: Agreed. But now you’ve invested another draft pick and the associated bonus and the year you put into developing Waters.
DYLAN: And gotten an established ace that you can A) pay more than enough to resign and B) gives you the best rotation in the NL.
ANDY: I am not convinced the Braves would be high-bidder on deGrom in 2020. Or any other major free agent.
DYLAN: Why wouldn’t they be?
ANDY: You’d have to pray deGrom falls in love with Waffle House and gives us a hometown discount. Because they are the Atlanta Braves, not the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers or Philadelphia Phillies.
DYLAN: In 2020 they would still have plenty of money to sign deGrom. And if it nets a World Series in ’19 or ’20, I’m still fine with that. What I don’t like is the thought of hoping a prospect becomes a game-changer while your window is open when there is a proven one already there.
ANDY: We have no idea how much money the Braves will have. Who will we have extended? How many other prospects-for-current value trades we’ll make? How many mistakes will we have made by then? The window is open, with or without deGrom.
DYLAN: And they’re at a disadvantage rotation-wise right now. There’s a reason all the consistent playoff teams have a top 10 pitcher in the game
ANDY: True. This is why I’m interested in trading for deGrom. For the right package. I mean, it’s funny you think Waters would just be a throw in, but also that HE MUST BE IN THE TRADE. It’s one or the other. If the first, you can sub another player. If the later, than you can work with that to pull Pache out.
DYLAN: I dont care if its Waters or anyone else comparable. It’s just silly to me that if the Mets insist on Pache and Waters that that’s the line to draw.
ANDY: They won’t though. If the Braves go “we don’t want to trade both” they’ll find something else. As you often point out, we’ve got lots of prospects.
DYLAN: I’m sure they would. I just don’t care. If their heart is set on both of them, fine. If they want someone else in that realm, even better. I’m doing that trade anyway
ANDY: Glad you aren’t the negotiator then.
DYLAN: Ask [Cubs executive] Theo Epstein if he’d do the [Jose] Quintana trade again. Eloy Jimenez alone outweighs anything we’d be giving up. And Quintana is nowhere the pitcher deGrom is.
TODD FRAZIER
ANDY: Problem is, aside from deGrom I don’t really want anyone from the Mets.
DYLAN: Possibly trading for Todd Frazier?
ANDY: We’re just as good with Camargo.
DYLAN: Agreed.
NOAH SYNDERGAARD
ANDY: Would you do Wright/Pache/something/something for Thor?
DYLAN: I thought about that, but I feel they’d want more for Thor than deGrom. And I dont trust Thor at all. Its not even TJS, it’s literally everything. But that could also be because the Mets kill every pitcher ever.
ANDY: He has an extra year of control. Technically he probably should be worth more, but I’m with you. I would rather have deGrom.
DYLAN: In a perfect world I’d rather have Thor over anyone besides Kershaw and Scherzer, but I don’t trust him to actually make it 150 IP. The dude is the biggest tease in baseball. And I’d actually probably take Thor over Scherzer due to age.
ANDY: I forget how young he is. Feels like he’s been around forever. New York prospects… you get tired of them before they get to the majors.
DYLAN: Right? Cant believe he’s only 25. Hes like Teheran in that aspect. But that 100 mph sinker is so beautiful.
ANDY: It’s the grossest pitch in the majors when he’s healthy. But sinkers aren’t supposed to be thrown that fast. It’s unnatural.
JEURYS FAMILIA
ANDY: Any interest in Familia as a rental? He’s a free agent after this season.
DYLAN: For the right price. I don’t think he’s much different than Vizcaino.
ANDY: The price would probably be too high for a “proven closer”.
DYLAN: Closer markets are hard for me to gauge
ANDY: The Cubs and [Arodis] Chapman threw it all out of whack.
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