Outfield Fly Rule

NLDS Game 1 Preview: Five Things

October 3, 2019 Andy Harris Atlanta Braves 0

(Getty Images)

In what will hopefully be a long series of posts, we will look at five things that could possibly turn the outcome of each game.

Game 1: St. Louis at Atlanta, 5:02 p.m. Thursday
Game 2: St. Louis at Atlanta, 4:37 p.m p.m. Friday
Game 3: Atlanta at St. Louis, 4:10 p.m. Sunday
Game 4*: Atlanta at St. Louis, Monday, Time TBD
Game 5*: St. Louis at Atlanta, Wednesday, Time TBD

*if necessary

Wong’s Hammy

At the time of this writing the final playoff rosters have not been officially announced, but Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong is expected to be active and starting for the Redbirds. Thanks to an extraordinary defensive season and a strong .285/.361/.423, 11 HR campaign, Wong has been the most valuable Cardinals position player. That said, he has not taken the field in a game since September 19 with a grade-2 hamstring strain.

As one of the few left-handed hitting regulars, Wong plays an important part in helping balance the Cardinals line-up. He also has never faced left-hander Dallas Keuchel, the scheduled starter for Atlanta.

Keuchel’s Sinker

Keuchel is one of the top groundball pitchers in baseball, and has been pretty much since he made his major league debut. The key to this success have been his sinker, which he has thrown at a 49% clip this season, and has on average a phenomenal 30 inches of drop from the release point to the catcher’s mitt. With the Cardinals predominantly right-handed line-up, Keuchel will need to keep the adrenaline rush under control and keep the sinker with that kind of drop.

Keuchel did not face the Cardinals at all this season, and only five current Cardinals have ever faced him. Of those five, only first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has had any kind substantial look at Keuchel, and has gone 3-for-18 with two walks and a double against him. Of the Cardinals that have never faced him before, Keuchel should be most careful of lead-off man Dexter Fowler, who has had a good amount of success against pitchers somewhat similar to Keuchel.

Freeman’s Elbow

By far the biggest injury concern for the Braves has been the state of Freddie Freeman’s elbow. Freeman has dealt with bone spurs in the elbow essentially all season, but the cumulative effect has bothered him more in the last month. Not coincidentally, September was by far Freeman’s least productive month as he hit .264/.365/.389 with only 2 home runs.

The urgency and adrenaline of the post-season can sometimes cause medical miracles, and even a one-armed Freddie Freeman is a better offensive player than any alternative, but the odds of the Braves winning go down quite a bit if Freeman is not able to get extended on his swing. Freeman’s best slugging percentage on balls in play are up and on the outer part of the plate and down and in on him, which goes to show how difficult it is to pitch to him when he’s healthy.

Snitker’s Platooning

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the Braves NLDS roster was the inclusion of left-handed hitter and outfielder Rafael Ortega. That gives the Braves six outfielders, with Ortega, Billy Hamilton, and Adam Duvall on the bench. This is important because the Braves will be starting two outfielders, Nick Markakis and Matt Joyce, that historically have had very stark platoon splits.

Expect Cardinals manager Mike Shildt to try to exploit that with the deployment early and often of left-handers Andrew Miller, Tyler Webb, and Genesis Cabrera. This will test how quickly Braves manager Brian Snitker moves from Joyce to Duvall, which has the added benefit of improving the defense, but leaves the bench thin at the end of games. This could be a difficult time to see if Ortega’s .285/.374/.518 mark against right-handers while with Gwinnett this year can carry up to the majors.

Fried’s Relieving

According to Snitker, the plan is for Max Fried to make the start in Game 4, depending on how he’s used in the games prior. If that’s true, then you can likely count on Fried making an appearance in today’s game, as it would allow him regular rest for Game 4.

While Keuchel’s sterling postseason experience no doubt influenced his selection as the Game 1 starter, it’s actually clearly been Fried who has been the better overall left-handed starter for the Braves, and considering that the Game 2 pitching match-up of Jack Flaherty versus Mike Foltynewicz slews heavily toward the Cardinals, getting a Game 1 win will be very important to Atlanta. If Keuchel struggles early at all, look for Snitker to employ a quick hook to bring in Fried, whose improved slider has helped him strike out right-handed batters at a 23.5% rate this season.

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