NLDS Game 2 Preview: Five Things

Game 1: St. Louis 7, Atlanta 6
Game 2: St. Louis at Atlanta, 4:37 p.m p.m. Friday
Game 3: Atlanta at St. Louis, 4:10 p.m. Sunday
Game 4*: Atlanta at St. Louis, Monday, Time TBD
Game 5*: St. Louis at Atlanta, Wednesday, Time TBD

*if necessary

The Braves played sloppy, had a bullpen meltdown, and had some questionable umpire calls go against them — and still only lost by one run.

From yesterday’s 5 Things we saw:

• Wong’s Hammy: He moved around the field pretty well, but was clearly rusty after having not appeared in a game since mid-September, committing two errors. He also got thrown out at the plate, on a questionable send considering his injury situation.
• Keuchel’s Sinker: lt looked really good early on, and he was able to get two key 5-4-3 double plays. He needed it because he wasn’t getting calls off the plate, and as expected he got a quick hook when Tommy Edman doubled just in front of a diving Nick Markakis.
• Freeman’s Elbow: This was by far the best news for Braves fans last night, as he rocketed and outside pitch to the opposite field in the first inning, then in the 9th pulled the Braves to within a run with a mammoth blast to center field.
• Snitker’s Platooning: This really came to the fore when Snitker aggressively platooned Adam Duvall in place of Matt Joyce in the 6th inning with top Cardinals left-hander Tyler Webb on the mound. With Brian McCann on deck, the Cardinals intentionally walled Duvall to load the bases. Snitker then pulled back McCann and pinch hit with Francisco Cervelli, a move allowed by carrying three catchers. Rather than have Webb face Cervelli, the Cardinals wasted him, and brought in a right-hander. Unfortunately, Cervelli ended up striking out on a questionable checked-swing call.
• Fried’s Relieving: Fried was by far the most effective pitcher utilized by Atlanta on Thursday, and one of the most questionable decisions of the night was pulling Fried before the 8th inning to bring in right-hander Chris Martin. Martin would end up not pitching to anyone, straining an oblique muscle during warm-ups, but even if he were healthy, Fried seemed prime for another inning, or maybe two, even if the Braves wanted him to start a potential Game Four, he would have had normal rest. I wonder if the Braves didn’t want the Cardinals to get too good of a look at Fried, who they had not faced this season.

That’s old business, here’s today’s 5 Things:

Atlanta’s Short-Term Memory

There was a good amount clubhouse grumbling about outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr.’s failure to run out what turned out to be a single that hit high off the right field wall. Acuna carried the bat and watched as the near-homer instead made a sharp carom right to Dexter Fowler. It wasn’t a good look for the burgeoning superstar, but the Braves absolutely have to have Acuna in the line-up to be successful. Likewise, closer Mark Melancon will be needed again this series even after getting pummeled for 4 runs in the 9th inning after allowing the tying run to score in the 8th after coming on in relief of Luke Jackson, who allowed the runner on. Melancon seemed to fall victim to going to the curveball once too often, with two critical Cardinal bloop hits coming on the pitch while down in the count.

The team has been notable in not allowing bad games to have lingering effects. The Braves need to push this into the past and move on.

Flaherty’s Four-Seamer

Jack Flaherty has had a fantastic regular season, in large part to improvements in his slider. But it’s still the four-seam fastball that is Flaherty’s bread-and-butter pitch, and he throws it over 45% of the time, relegating his sinker to more of a change-of-pace roll. Because of his high spin rate he’s able to generate better than normal vertical and horizontal movement with it while still averaging almost 95 mph. Flaherty also likes to work backwards, getting ahead with his slider in the zone, then finishing with the four-seamer.

However, the Braves are one of the better offenses in baseball against the fastball. If this forces Flaherty to use more of his off-speed pitches, the Braves can then do what they do best and grind out at-bats until Flaherty is able to come into the zone. If the Braves look uncomfortable early against Flaherty’s fastball however, this would be a great sign for the Cardinals.

https://twitter.com/AugustineMLB/status/1171053777685753857

Foltynewicz’s Zen

As any Braves fan knows, Mike Foltynewicz plays with a lot of emotion. When he lets bad calls, bad defense, or bad luck get to him, he generally won’t have a good game. While he has tried to suppress that emotion on the mound, that’s simply not who he is or how he operates. Instead, at his most effective he turns that emotion into aggression that he uses against his opponents.

Foltynewicz has done well with this since his return from Gwinnett in August. It will be harder with the spotlight of the playoffs upon him.

A big key for Mike Foltynewicz is staying calm and managing his emotions on the mound. @PaulByrd36 has more. pic.twitter.com/zD1NR7p4yu

— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) August 18, 2019

Teheran’s Role

Julio Teheran has replaced Chris Martin on the playoff roster. The second-best starting pitcher for Atlanta this season, Teheran had pitched himself off the roster with a poor September that had many wondering if the venerable righty was gassed. If so, hopefully the 10-day layoff since his last appearance will help him regain the form that allowed him to hold opponents to a .229/.328/.389 batting line against him. On the surface, Teheran could be a weapon against the predominantly right-handed Cardinal line-up that doesn’t have a whole lot of scary power hitters.

The question is if they hold Teheran for a potential Game Four start and utilize Fried in the bullpen role that he seems well-acclimated to, or if they use his to replace Josh Tomlin in the long-relief role to allow Tomlin to pitch in the middle-inning role vacated by Martin. Teheran’s bullpen experience is very slim.

Julio Teherán, 90mph Fastball and 80mph Slider, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/ARIpmU0jFo

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 2, 2019

Tomlin’s Cutter

In may ways, Josh Tomlin is not a subtle pitcher. He has developed a fine cut fastball that has rejuvenated his career. When he hits spots with it (inside corner for righties, outside against lefties), he’s generally successful. If he can’t hit those spots and has to turn to his middle-grade four-seam fastball to get strikes, the Cardinals will be able to hit him hard and often.

The Braves will almost certainly have to turn to Tomlin in Game 2 given that all other relievers were used in game 1

https://twitter.com/K26dp/status/1180163286085652480