(Curtis Compton/AJC.com)
Pitchers and catchers have reported and full-squad spring training workouts are just a few days away. This series will take a look at the players mostly likely to suit up at each level of the organization. The last installment will come out on Tuesday, February 17.
The focus of the rebuild was on developing a strong pool of pitching, and the current system depth is filled with high-upside pitching, especially at the high minor league levels. The Gwinnett starting rotation alone would likely cause some major league teams to be envious. After a couple of drafts that focused on college pitchers, the 2019 draft brought in three teenagers to the rookie leagues and their progress will be interesting as the season moves along.
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ATLANTA BRAVES
STARTERS: Mike Soroka, Cole Hamels, Max Fried, Mike Foltynewicz
Last year’s top prospect on OFR’s list (and almost everyone else’s), Mike Soroka took his place at the head of Atlanta’s rotation with a performance that earned him second place in the Rookie of the Year voting and third place in NL ERA. There’s a shocking discrepancy between his style of pitching — mixing speeds, pitching to contact, spotting all of his pitches — and his age of a mere 22 years. The question for Soroka going into 2020 is if his combination of NL-leading home run suppression and less than 6% walk rate can be consistently replicated. Soroka was brilliant in his one playoff appearance, throwing 7 innings of 2-hit ball.
Cole Hamels joins the team on a one-year free agent deal looking to add to what has been a splendid 14-season major league career. Going into his age-36 season, Hamels essentially takes the rotation spot of Dallas Keuchel, last year’s free agent veteran, and the Braves are banking on Hamels being more like the pitcher who posted a 2.98 ERA in nearly 100 innings for the Cubs last season prior to a mid-season oblique strain, and not the busted-up pitcher who had a 5.79 ERA over his last 10 starts. Hamels’ spring got off to an inauspicious start when it was announced this week that Hamels will miss at least the first three weeks of camp with “irritation” in his shoulder.
A young lefty who has often drawn Cole Hamels comparisons, Max Fried firmly set aside questions about if his future was in the bullpen or the rotation by posting up 160 innings over 30 starts with a 4.15 ERA. Advanced metrics place his pitch values among the league leaders, and there’s evidence that his performance could have been even better with a little better luck on balls in play. Now going into his age 26 season, Fried is a popular pick to have a breakout year.
After an All-Star caliber campaign in 2018, Mike Foltynewicz weathered a Jekyll-and-Hyde 2019. It started with a spring training disrupted by elbow discomfort. When he returned to action in late April, he was out of sync and struggled to a 6.37 ERA in 11 starts before being optioned to AAA Gwinnett to get straightened out. To Foltynewicz’s credit, he went without complaint and worked hard with Stripers pitching coach Mike Maroth to right the ship. When he returned in August, he was Atlanta’s best starter through the rest of the season, pitching to a 2.65 ERA and outdueling Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty in Game 2 of the NLDS with 7 shut-out innings. Unfortunately, the last memory that he and fans have of the 2019 post-season is his exit from the first inning of Game 5, where Foltynewicz couldn’t pitch around rough defensive play on the way to a devastating 10-run inning. Something to watch will be how Foltynewicz bounces back from that… or maybe more accurately, constant questions about that inning.
FIFTH STARTER CANDIDATES: Felix Hernandez, Sean Newcomb, Touki Toussaint
The competition for the fifth starter’s spot should be ferocious as the waves of young pitching collected by Atlanta during the rebuild start to crest. Into this youthful mixture the Braves have introduced a bit of a wild card, former Mariners Cy Young Award winner King Felix Hernandez. Though he will only turn 34 years old in early April, Hernandez’s production has dropped precipitously since he was robbed of a second Cy Young in 2014. Injuries certainly have their part to play, but it doesn’t completely explain why over the last three seasons he has been allowing baserunners by the bushel. Still, considering his history and pedigree the Braves bringing him in on a risk-free minor league deal to get the first look at seeing if he can turn things around is a good move and will certainly be a topic of discussion this spring, even if Hernandez isn’t the favorite to win the spot.
The favorite as it stands right now is likely left-hander Sean Newcomb. Newcomb made 55 starts for Atlanta since coming up in June 2017 through his first three starts in 2019. After a tough outing where he didn’t get out of the second inning, Newcomb was optioned back to AAA Gwinnett with orders to work on his command. His time in Gwinnett was cut short after only three starts however due to the early-season implosion of the Braves bullpen, and Newcomb was summoned back to Atlanta to try to fill innings. The move worked beyond likely anyone’s imagining, and Newcomb only allowed 2 earned runs through his first 16 relief appearances. After that he got another shot at starting, but a J.T. Realmuto comebacker landed him on the concussion protocol. Newcomb remained a force out of the bullpen for the rest of the season, and he only allowed a .213/.290/.362 batting line as a reliever in 2019. Nevertheless, perhaps as a sign of loyalty to a player that changed rolls without complaint and saved the team in the early going, the Braves have indicated that Newcomb will be given every opportunity to win his starting rotation spot back.
That game that Newcomb came out early before getting optioned was against Cleveland, and the Braves ended up winning that game thanks in large part to six terrific relief innings posted by Touki Toussaint. The 23-year-old with the hammer curveball took Newcomb’s spot in the rotation — once. Like Newcomb, he couldn’t get out of the second inning in his start, and he found himself back in AAA. With the uncertain status of the bullpen, Toussaint bounced back to Atlanta quickly, and was on the major league roster for two months straight from mid-May through mid-July, primarily working multi-inning stints out of the ‘pen. Toussaint did well in this role for awhile, but the inconsistent use eventually caused his control to backslide, and he was sent back to Gwinnett in late July where he remained through the end of the season. The OFR #2 prospect going into 2019, the season raised more questions than it answered as to Toussaint’s future with the Braves, and he will have to demonstrate improved command of his repertoire to avoid starting the season back in AAA.
GWINNETT STRIPERS (CLASS AAA)
STARTERS: Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson, Ian Anderson, Tucker Davidson
All of the projected Gwinnett starting rotation will be in big league camp this spring, and all should be considered fifth starter and/or long reliever options. Perhaps the most likely of this group to break camp with the big league club is former 5th-overall draft pick Kyle Wright. Like Newcomb, Wright started the 2019 season in the Braves rotation, but after three starts found himself optioned to AAA Gwinnett. Unlike Newcomb and Toussaint however, Wright was mostly left alone in Gwinnett due to his horrific performance — through his first nine Stripers starts, Wright had a 7.22 ERA due to leaving too many pitches near the plate. With the AAA level using the same juiced ball as the majors last season, that style of pitching just didn’t work. Wright adjusted however, and he posted a sterling 2.57 ERA over his final 12 AAA starts. Wright finished out the season as a September call-up and looked impressive in 3 relief outings.
One of the youngest starting pitchers in either the major leagues or AAA last season, newly-minted 22-year-old Bryse Wilson now has an International League ERA title under his belt, posting a 3.42 ERA in a heavily skewed offensive season. Like Wright, Wilson also started 2018 in the Atlanta rotation, albeit mostly due to spring injuries to expected starters like Mike Foltynewicz, Mike Soroka, and Kevin Gausman. Wilson was returned to Gwinnett after his first start, and other than an emergency call-up to fill out the bullpen in late April, the Braves were content to keep Wilson working at AAA. An opportunity arose in late June however after Newcomb’s concussion and Kevin Gausman’s ineffectiveness, and Wilson made three starts around the All-Star break. Wilson battled in all three starts, but his heavily-fastball dependent pitch sequencing caught up with him each time, forcing early exits. Other than a September relief outing, all of Wilson’s subsequent appearances was in the Striper rotation. Unlike most of his other competition for the Atlanta rotation, Wilson’s main question mark isn’t his control but the quality of his secondary pitches. Fastball use has been on an overall steady decline in the major leagues as pitchers have been forced to use more guile and unusual pitch sequencing to keep power-happy hitters off balance. Wilson has the makings of strong secondary pitches, but as of the end of last season he was lagging behind the likes of Wright and Toussaint in that department.
The consensus top pitching prospect in the organization is former 2016 3rd-overall draft pick Ian Anderson. While Wilson shot through the organization in 2018, Anderson has been slow-walked, but pitched at the AAA level in the last month of 2019. Anderson will get a look in spring training as well, but his time will probably be later in the season, assuming he pitches well for Gwinnett. The Braves will likely not want to yo-yo him between levels, or from the rotation to the bullpen and back, like they have with other young pitchers. Instead, look for Anderson to get similar treatment as Mike Soroka got in 2018, coming up and sticking in the rotation.
Left-hander Tucker Davidson made a lot of noise in 2019, winning the AA Southern League ERA title and getting promoted to Gwinnett along with Anderson for the last weeks of the season. Added to the 40-man roster this offseason, Davidson is a dark horse candidate for both the 5th-starter spot or a bullpen role. Davidson did nothing to slow excitement for his candidacy by showing off footage of his working with Driveline this offseason and hitting 100 mph on the radar gun.
FIFTH STARTER CANDIDATES: Phil Pfeifer, Patrick Weigel, Connor Johnstone
Another lefty added to the 40-man roster this offseason, Phil Pfeifer is one of the more unlikely success stories of 2019. After years of being a reliever with only a casual acquaintance with control, Pfeifer was demoted to A-ball to work with Fire Frogs pitching coach Dan Meyer as a starter. Pfeifer thrived with the extra workload and within a few starts was one of Florida’s most reliable starters. In August he was promoted back to Mississippi, where he only allowed 3 runs and 6 walks over 4 starts before getting another shot at AAA ball for the last few weeks of the minor league season. Pfeifer worked as a reliever in his few appearances with Gwinnett, but given his success as a starter, a role he continued with the Australian Summer League in the off-season, that may continue to be how he’s worked to start 2020.
Patrick Weigel made a strong comeback from a torn UCL, pitching as both a starter and reliever for Mississippi and Gwinnett. As a starter the organization carefully monitored his innings, and he peaked with 89 pitches thrown in an early July start for the Stripers. One start later and he was used nearly exclusively out of the bullpen, a roll the he was more likely to be used for in Atlanta if called up. Weigel was called up once by the Braves, but did not appear in a game in the brief time he was with the club. Possessing two plus pitches and another two average pitches, Weigel has the repertoire and stamina to be a workhorse in a rotation, but out of the bullpen his fastball can play up into the upper-90s. Weigel has college experience as a closer, and that could ultimately be where he will fit in with Atlanta.
After working in 2018 as a “gunslinger” in the organization — riding across the South, pitching for whichever team needed an arm, and then often moving on to the next affiliate the next day — Connor Johnstone saw more regular work for Mississippi in 2019, though he also saw 7 appearances for the Stripers. Johnstone worked better as a starter in 2019, but saw more time as a reliever, and that’s the role he will likely start with in 2020, though he could swing into the rotation at any time necessary, a valuable trait for Gwinnett where on a given night the scheduled starter could be yanked down the interstate to Atlanta to fill in and they need pitchers that can start on a moment’s notice. Johnstone did some of his best pitching last year against elite hitters in the Arizona Fall League, pitching to a 3.27 ERA in 6 starts.
MISSISSIPPI BRAVES (CLASS AA)
STARTERS: Kyle Muller, Jasseel De La Cruz, Huascar Ynoa, Nolan Kingham
At the start of the 2018 season with Rome, Kyle Muller was sitting in the low 90’s on the fastball and relying on keeping the ball down to generate ground balls. While this is generally a solid plan, it was a surprising development for a big former first-rounder who was regularly in the mid to high 90s in high school. An offseason working with Driveline however radically changed his pitching profile, and his fastball saw much better life in 2019. Muller struck out 120 batters in 112 innings for Mississippi last season, a major improvement. With the strikeouts came a soaring walk rate however. Muller went back to Driveline this offseason, and if Muller can reintegrate the control he showed in 2018 with the stuff he showed in 2019, the Braves could have another pitcher to challenge for a spot in the top half of the rotation.
In 2019, Jasseel De La Cruz put aside an injury-plagued year at Rome and forced himself into the Braves plans. At his best, De La Cruz has no-hitter quality stuff, as demonstrated when he threw an actual no-hitter for the Fire Frogs in early May. De La Cruz finished the year with Mississippi, throwing 87 solid innings with the club. Added to the 40-man roster this offseason, De La Cruz has the kind of repertoire that could be an asset in either a rotation or a bullpen, and it’s possible he will make his major league debut in 2020.
One of the biggest wild cards among the Braves pitchers is fireballer Huascar Ynoa. Ynoa rocketed up four levels in 2019, starting the year with the Fire Frogs and eventually making two appearances in relief with Atlanta. That said, Ynoa was inconsistent after being promoted from Florida, perhaps from being yo-yo’d from the rotation to the bullpen and back again. Ynoa had better results as a starting pitcher, and after being rushed to AAA and the majors last season, it may be worthwhile to allow Ynoa to get comfortable in one place and one role for awhile. It may be in the Mississippi rotation, but there’s just as much a chance it could be in the Gwinnett bullpen.
Another starter who sprinted up multiple levels in 2019, Nolan Kingham is the first pitcher on this list that isn’t either on the 40-man roster or on a non-roster major league camp invite. He certainly would have been worthy of an invite after demonstrating an advanced feel for pitching with Rome, Florida, and finally Mississippi in six starts.
FIFTH STARTER CANDIDATES: Hayden Deal, Matt Withrow, Brooks Wilson
After winning Rome Pitcher of the Year honors in 2018 as a reliever, Hayden Deal pitched nearly exclusively as a starter for the Fire Frogs in 2019 and was the team’s best starter through the first half of the year, pitching to a 2.43 ERA through the end of June. The workload apparently caught up with him in the dog days however, and he limped down the stretch. Deal will almost certainly advance up to Mississippi for 2020, though he may see more time out of the bullpen.
Once upon a time, Matt Withrow was holding his own in the Mississippi rotation alongside the likes of Mike Soroka, Max Fried, Patrick Weigel, and Kolby Allard, but a series of injuries culminating in a lost 2018 season have drastically changed his fortunes. Withrow came back to throw in 15 games (9 starts) for Florida last season and looked solid if somewhat rusty early on, but was able to rebound after another injury in mid-season to only give up 2 runs over his final 6 appearances. Withrow’s future role is in flux, but he pitched better out of the bullpen in 2019.
Pressed to starting duties after injuries and promotions decimated the Fire Frogs rotation in mid-season 2019, former 2018 7th-rounder Brooks Wilson thrived in the role and was Florida’s most consistent starter in the second half. By the end of the season, Wilson was even posting up 100+ pitch counts, and his solid three-pitch mix would seem to warrant more exposure as a starter.
FLORIDA FIRE FROGS (CLASS A+)
STARTERS: Freddy Tarnok, Odalvi Javier, Dilmer Mejia, Matt Hartman
Freddy Tarnok pushed aside early season control issues and a mid-season injury to finish strong for Florida in 2019. Tarnok was relatively new to pitching when he was drafted in the third round in 2017, and it has taken some time for him to get his raw ability translated into skill, but his control took a big step forward in the last six weeks of the season.
Going into his sixth season in the organization Odalvi Javier has shown to be a dependable innings-eater at the A-ball level.
After debuting at the age of 16 and pitching in the rookie leagues for 4 seasons, Dilmer Mejia should be given the opportunity to stick at high-A this year. Mejia’s control took a big leap forward with Rome last season, and he has three average pitches that should be adequate to continue to find success with Florida.
The Braves have done very well in picking up non-drafted pitching talent in recent years, including 2019 Fire Frog teammates Hayden Deal, Walter Borkovich, and Matt Hartman. Used as a starter and a long reliever for most of the first half of last season, Hartman eventually settled into the rotation and did his best work down the stretch, posting a 1.82 ERA in August. Hartman has three quality pitches and keeps the ball around the plate enough to be competitive.
FIFTH STARTER CANDIDATES: Jose Olague, Alan Rangel, Victor Vodnik
Despite skipping from DSL to the Rome Opening Day roster last season, Jose Olague was the top starting pitcher for Rome in the first half last season, posting a 3.38 ERA through the end of June. Olague gives up a lot of contact but typically keeps his starts under control by limiting walks and damage.
A pitcher with a similar profile is Alan Rangel, who has pitched for parts of the last three seasons with Rome. Rangel pitched with Los Naranjeros de Hermosillo of the Mexican Winter League this offseason as a reliever, and it’s possible the Braves move him in that direction.
Another pitcher with some question about his future role is Victor Vodnik, though his trajectory is pointed firmly up. The only high school draft pick signed by Atlanta in 2018, Vodnik has showed significant progress with Rome in 2019, though plans to move him to the starting rotation at mid-season last year blew up when he came down with an injury. Vodnik has a blistering fastball and potential plus secondaries, so it would be worthwhile to try him as a start again, though if the Braves decide to do so it may be back in Rome.
ROME BRAVES (CLASS A)
STARTERS: Ricky DeVito, Mitch Stallings, Gabriel Noguera, Tyler Owens
An 8th-rounder out of Seton Hall, Ricky DeVito moved quickly from Danville to Rome after being drafted last season. A relatively advanced pitcher, DeVito likely would just need a short amount of time in Rome before he would be considered to move up.
Local Atlanta kid Mitch Stallings started in the organization as a 30th-round senior sign out of Duke, but last year was named the Appalachian League Pitcher of the Year after posting a 2.25 ERA in 11 appearances (9 starts) before an August promotion to Rome. Already 24 years old, Stallings like DeVito could move quickly if he shows he can maintain his high strikeout/walk ratio that he demonstrated in 2019.
After missing all of the 2018 season due to a suspension for a second offense of the minor league drug policy, Gabriel Noguera was promoted straight to Rome. Noguera performed well as a starter, posting a 2.98 ERA. He ran out of steam by late July however, and finished out the year in relief to poor results.
The Braves invested heavily in prep talent in the 2019 draft, especially after the 10th-round, with Tyler Owens the top pitcher selected. The 19-year-old was the only prep pitcher from that draft to move up to Danville before the end of the season, and he threw 7 shutout innings over his last two starts. It would be strange to have a Rome squad without at least one upside teenage pitcher, and Owens seems the most likely, though it’s possible the Braves may start him in the bullpen to limit innings, as they did with Freddy Tarnok and Victor Vodnik in 2018 and 2019 respectively.
FIFTH STARTER CANDIDATES: Filyer Sanchez, Darius Vines, Joey Estes, Jared Johnson
Going into his fifth year with the organization, Filyer Sanchez was one of Danville’s most dependable pitchers in 2019 and more than deserves a look in Rome. He has plenty of experience as both a starter and reliever, and I would expect more of the same for Rome.
A 7th-round pick out of Cal State-Bakersfield in 2019, Darius Vines has one of the prettier curveballs you could find and good control as well, but an unsightly ERA with Danville caused by one 7-earned run, 1.1-inning appearance. A few slight mechanical adjustments could do him a world of good, and Vines could be an asset in either the bullpen or rotation for Rome.
Under the previous Braves regime, no one would have blinked about having a rotation with multiple teenagers in Rome. In fact they did in 2016 (Soroka, Toussaint, Kolby Allard) and 2017 (Anderson, Wilson, Joey Wentz). These days player development is more conservative about pushing their teenagers, so it seems unlikely that Joey Estes and/or Jared Johnson will start the season with Rome. That said, if their talent plays in this spring, the Braves may want to reconsider. Estes is somewhat more polished than a pitcher his age, and Johnson’s 6″-2″, 225 pound frame and mid-90s fastball belies his age.
OFR TOP 15 STARTING PITCHING PROSPECT RANKINGS:
- Ian Anderson (OFR #3)
- Kyle Wright (OFR #4)
- Bryse Wilson (OFR #5)
- Kyle Muller (OFR #8)
- Jasseel De La Cruz (OFR #10)
- Tucker Davidson (OFR #11)
- Patrick Weigel (OFR #12)
- Huascar Ynoa (OFR #15)
- Victor Vodnik (OFR #18)
- Freddy Tarnok (OFR #23)
- Nolan Kingham (OFR #24)
- Tyler Owens (OFR #27)
- Ricky DeVito (OFR #32)
- Hayden Deal (OFR #34)
- Phil Pfeifer (OFR #37)
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